Southeast Asia

Corruption now 'dominates and paralyzes the society,' David Halberstam observed. American officials perceived the problems but they could not find solutions. ... The Embassy pressed the government to remove officials known to be corrupt, but with little result. 'You fight like hell to get someone removed and most times you fail and you just make it worse,' a frustrated American explained to Halberstam. 'And then on occasions when you win, why hell, they give you someone just as bad.' The United States found to its chagrin that as its commitment increased its leverage diminished. Concern with corruption and inefficiency was always balanced by fear that tough action might alienate the government or bring about its collapse. Lodge and Westmoreland were inclined to accept the situation and deal with other problems."

Source: George C. Herring, America's Longest War: The United States in Vietnam, 1950-1975., 1st. ed., pp. 162-63. The Halberstam quotations are from his article, "Return to Vietnam," Harpers (December 1967).

Before I catch up on other developments -- like the new "plan" for Afghanistan/Pakistan, the Netanyahu government in Israel, the G20 summit, etc. -- I thought I’d pass along a few things I learned during my visit to Singapore last week. Here are a few quick impressions, based on my conversations with a number of academics and senior policymakers there, and by a roundtable discussion with Ashley Tellis, Yuen Foon Khong, Vinod Aggarwal, C. Raja Mohan, and myself (sponsored by the S Rajaratnam School and moderated by its Dean, Barry Desker).

First, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton got full marks for her Asia trip last month. The decision to make Asia her first foreign destination was much appreciated (especially given the short shrift the region had received under Bush), and the people I spoke with were also impressed by how she handled herself along the way. Singaporeans are looking forward to welcoming Obama there for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in November. If the Obama administration is looking to refurbish ties with various Asian allies (and they should), the groundwork has been laid and the effort will be welcome.

Second, nobody in Singapore seemed enthusiastic about America doubling down in Central Asia. There was some grudging acceptance that the United States still had a role to play there, but even the strongest advocates of U.S. involvement in that conflict saw it as a grim necessity rather than an opportunity. Several officials emphasized that it was important that the United States not get bogged down there. Agreed.

Third, one senior official offered a cautionary note about the recent U.S. opening to Iran. While fully supportive of the initiative, he emphasized that Tehran was bound to drive a hard bargain and that negotiations would be prolonged and difficult. Another person with whom I spoke surprised me by suggesting that if Iran's clerical leadership is interested in dealing with Washington, they will work to ensure the reelection of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, thereby keeping a "bad cop" in the Presidency to enhance their bargaining position. I would have thought the opposite -- that it would be easier to engineer a detente between Washington and Tehran if Ahmadinejad were no longer in office -- and it will be interesting to see who's right.

Fourth, virtually everyone I spoke with hoped Obama & Co. would get the U.S. economy moving ASAP, and argued that this was the only way to jump-start the rest of the world. This sentiment is easy to fathom (Singapore's economy is heavily dependent on world trade and is projected to shrink by 5-10 percent this year), but I found myself wondering if it is either realistic or healthy of other countries to expect so much from Uncle Sam. The days where the United States could singlehandedly serve as the engine of the world economy are probably behind us, and prospects for a coordinated global response seem increasingly bleak. Although everyone supposedly understands that "beggar thy neighbor" policies made the Great Depression worse, the global response to the crisis has been "every state for itself" and signs of protectionism are beginning to re-emerge. The draft G20 communique reportedly takes a firm stand against this trend, but it is going to take principled and courageous leadership to resist these pressures. All in all, a good test to see if we've learned anything from the 1930s. 

ROSLAN RAHMAN/Getty Images

Safely here in Singapore, reconnecting with friends and associates at the S Rajaratnam School, as well as several international visitors. A few quick, if slightly jet-lagged impressions:

1. The economic meltdown is The Big Story here, for obvious reasons. Singapore has the highest trade/GNP ratio in the world, and has been very hard hit by the overall decline in world trade. According to the Straits Times former Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew has warned that Singapore's economy could shrink by as much as 10 percent this year (though other estimates are not quite as gloomy) which would be unprecedented. The political ramifications have been limited by the fact that job losses have been concentrated on the sizeable expatriate community (life's no better for former financial wizards here than on Wall Street), but the effects of a prolonged recession could be more worrisome.

2. Like everyone else, Singaporeans with whom I've spoke are fascinated by Obama's ascendancy and intensely curious about what it will mean. So far, most think he's been terrific in changing the tone of America's engagement with other states, but whether he can deliver on substance remains to be seen. One call this is a friendlier version of Ayatollah Khameini's message to Obama: they'll judge him by his acts, not just by his words. But they like the words. And nobody seems to miss George W. Bush very much, if at all.

3. As one would expect, Singapore's security concerns are primarily focused on the local neighborhood (Indonesia, China’s growing role, maritime security, etc.) They chide us Americans for neglecting Asia over the past eight years, and think it will take some time and effort to do the deferred diplomatic maintenance. I agree, and cannot help thinking about how different our situation would be had we not squandered all that time, money, attention, and manpower and all those lives in the sands of Iraq. 

4. Final thought: I found myself wondering today whether Singapore might be something of a canary in the coal mine on the issues of energy security and adaptation to climate change. The city-state achieved its phenomenal growth by taking a very far-sighted and disciplined approach to economic development, and its leaders continue to venerate those qualities. Singapore ranks very high in per capita CO2 emissions and per capita energy consumption (it takes a lot of energy to run a modern economy in the tropics), and a rise in global sea levels would be a BIG problem for them. So I'd expect Singapore to be among the leaders in going green (both to reduce energy costs and to encourage get bigger countries to reduce emissions) and to be on the cutting edge in preparing for the environmental consequences that it may be too late to avoid. Worth watching...

ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP/Getty Images