Posted By Stephen M. Walt

I wouldn't call it a "shellacking," but President Barack Obama's trip to Asia wasn't a stunning triumph either. He got a positive reception in India -- mostly because he was giving Indians things they wanted and not asking for much in return -- and his personal history and still-evident charisma played well in Indonesia. But then he went off to the G-20 summit in Seoul, and got stiffed by a diverse coalition of foreign economic powers. Plus, an anticipated trade deal with South Korea didn't get done, depriving him of any tangible achievements to bring back home.

What lessons should we draw from this? The first and most obvious is that when your own economy is performing poorly, and when you are still saddled by costly burdens like the war in Afghanistan, you aren't going to have as much clout on the world stage. After half a century or more of global dominance, some Americans may still expect the president to waltz into global summits and get others to do what he wants (or at least most of it). But that is harder to do when you've spent the past ten years wasting trillions (yes, trillions) in Iraq and Afghanistan while other states were building their futures, and have dug yourself into a deep economic hole.

Second, the geopolitics of the trip are important, as Robert Kaplan lays out in a good New York Times op-ed this morning. I don't agree with everything he says (in particular, I think getting out of Afghanistan would reduce the need to accommodate Pakistan and simplify efforts to forge a closer relationship with India) but most of his points ring true to me.

Third, the other event this week was yet another flap between the United States and Israel, and it's not as unrelated to the situation in Asia as you might think. At about the same time that Obama was making yet another eloquent speech about the need to improve relations between the United States and the Muslim world, Israel was announcing still more construction in East Jerusalem. Just what Obama needed, right?

When Obama said this step was "counterproductive" (now there's tough language!), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu retorted that "Jerusalem is not a settlement; it is the capital of Israel." In fact, Israeli construction in East Jerusalem is no different than a settlement in the eyes of the rest of the world, because no other government recognizes Israel's illegal annexation of these lands.

And then what happened? Netanyahu sat down for nearly a full day of talks with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who proceeded to say (for the zillionth time), that the U.S. commitment to Israel's security was "unshakeable." She then declared that the U.S. position on future talks will seek to "reconcile the Palestinian goal of an independent and viable state, based on the 1967 lines, with agreed swaps, and the Israeli goal of a Jewish state with secure and recognized borders that reflect subsequent developments and meet Israeli security requirements" (my emphasis).

Translation: the Obama administration is back in business as "Israel's lawyer," and the man who first coined that phrase -- former U.S. negotiator Aaron Miller -- said as much, referring to Clinton's statement as "the beginning of a common U.S.-Israeli approach to the peace negotiations." Given that Netanyahu has made it clear that East Jerusalem is not negotiable and that his own vision of a two-state solution is a set of disconnected Palestinian statelets under de facto Israel control, this is not an approach that is going to lead anywhere positive. And like his Cairo speech, Obama's remarks in Indonesia will soon be dismissed as more empty phrases.

So where's the connection between this issue and our strategic position in Asia? Indonesia is a potentially crucial partner for the United States (if you want to see why, take a look at the sea lanes in Southeast Asia), and it is also a moderate Muslim country with history of toleration. Yet the Palestinian issue resonates there too, and makes it harder for the Indonesian government to openly embrace the United States. As Kaplan notes in his Times op-ed, "China also plays on the tension between the West and global Islam in order to limit American influence there. That is why President Obama's mission to rebrand America in the eyes of Muslims carries benefits that go far beyond Indonesia and the Middle East."

What Kaplan doesn't say is that the United States' one-sided support for Israel against the Palestinians is an important source of the "tension" that China is exploiting. As the deputy chairman of Indonesia's largest Islamic group, Masdar Mas'udi, put it last week: "The solution of the Palestine problem is key to many problems between the West and the Muslim world… Our hope as Muslims to Obama and the U.S. is not unreasonable: If the Palestine problem could be resolved, it would be more than enough."

So the next time you read about some senator or congressperson denouncing any attempt to use U.S. leverage on both sides to bring about a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, ask yourself why they are trying to undermine the U.S. effort to bolster its strategic position in a region that ultimately matters far more to U.S. security and prosperity. And by making it harder to achieve a workable two-state solution that would preserve its democratic and Jewish character and enhance its international legitimacy, they aren't doing Israel any favors either. Indeed, the remarkable thing about these zealots is that they are managing to undermine the United States' security and Israel's long-term future at the same time.

TIM SLOAN/AFP/Getty Images

Posted By Stephen M. Walt

I'm in New York right now, delivering my kids to summer camps and such, and then I'm going to take a couple of days off from blogging. Here are a few random musings of mine that you can ponder until I'm back at the keyboard.

  1. My bedtime book right now is Jared Diamond's Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. It is a great read, if not quite as elegantly argued as his prize-winner Guns, Germs and Steel. I'm learning a lot about a host of primitive cultures (some of which I'd never even heard of), and finding about the modern science of forensic archaeology. It's sorta like CSI meets Margaret Mead ... I'm hoping to glean some larger lessons for how societies respond to setbacks, as part of a larger research project I'm pursuing. If I do get any brainwaves, I'll pass them along.
  2. I flew to DC last week, and when I checked in at the airport the United Airlines self-service kiosk gave me three different options for "upgrades," including two that would have helped me get through the security line faster. I declined them all, and then discovered that the TSA checkpoint was a mob scene that took over twenty minutes to get through. This made me wonder: do airlines have an increasing incentive to make regular economy class travel as miserable as possible, so that they can sell us marginal improvements at marginal cost? And does that mean they'd prefer it if the TSA process were as inefficient as possible, so that more of us are tempted to buy our way out?
  3. New York Times reporter Deborah Solomon apparently thinks terrorism used to be "romantic,"  at least when it was being done on behalf of Zionism  (h/t to Phil Weiss and Matt Duss).   
  4. Given how much it apparently costs to hold a G20 summit (i.e., more than $1 billion), and given that the member governments have all pledged to cut budgets, maybe they should consider doing the next one via videoconference. Not as many nice photo-ops, perhaps, but they could save a bundle. And I'll bet the carbon footprint of that summit wasn't exactly trivial either.
  5. I was disappointed when the United States got eliminated in the soccer World Cup, but also relieved. Having the world's most powerful country eliminate the last team from the host continent would not have endeared the United States to anyone. Plus, the United States got outplayed and didn't deserve the win.  

That's all, folks. I'll be back in a few days, unless I just can't resist.

Paula Bronstein/Getty Images

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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