I don't have strong views about this week's G20 summit. It clearly won’t produce a grand plan to revive the global economy, and so I'm mostly hoping it doesn't do any real harm. It's abundantly clear that there are genuine differences among the various members, which reflect both divergent historical attitudes and traditions and the very different economic circumstances that each state now faces. With bigger safety nets and greater fear of inflation, European powers oppose calls for big fiscal stimulus packages and are emphasizing the need for more regulation. The Obama administration is leaning the other way: acknowledging the need for some regulatory reform but emphasizing the need for more direct efforts to boost economic activity.
These differences won't get resolved at this meeting; let's just hope that evidence of dissensus doesn’t spook the markets or energize the protectionist forces that are already emerging in various countries. A final communiqué that committed the parties to reject the latter would be most welcome.
The meeting is also Obama's debut appearance at such a gathering, and I'm thinking that he needs to walk a rather fine line. On the one hand, he'll want to show that he’s not George W. Bush, and to firmly reject the one-way approach to diplomacy that Bush practiced, especially during his first term. This is the easy part: given Obama's innate confidence, likeability, and penchant for listening to diverse views, he should have little trouble getting on with the other attendees.
But on the other hand, Obama also needs to show that he's no pushover, and that our economic problems haven't made the United States just one out of twenty. Leaders like French President Nicolas Sarkozy have a penchant for grandstanding, and may be eager to score political points at home by hogging the spotlight or by taking pot shots at the United States. Here Obama needs to make it clear that the United States is still a global superpower with ample capacity to defend its interests -- including its economic interests -- and that even close allies will pay a price if they provoke U.S. disfavor. The U.S. economy is still the world's largest and most advanced, and it faces fewer long-term problems than many other G20 members. Key allies in the G20 remain dependent on American military power and on the collective goods that the United States still provides. Now is not the time to look or act (to use Richard Nixon's Vietnam-era phrase) like "a pitiful, helpless giant."
Obama's tough handling of General Motors shows that he's not afraid to play hardball when circumstances require. I hope he finds a way to remind the other nineteen leaders of that fact. But I also hope he does it with some subtlety. Like I said: He's got a rather fine line to tread.
John Stillwell - WPA Pool/Getty Images
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