Posted By Stephen M. Walt Share

Last week, I questioned whether the threat from international terrorism -- and specifically, al Qaeda and the Taliban -- was sufficiently grave to warrant a major increase in the U.S. military commitment in Central Asia. I suggested that we needed a more careful cost-benefit analysis before plunging ahead and the always-interesting John Mueller provides one here. It’s an excellent antidote to what seems to be an emerging consensus that U.S. security is vitally dependent on "defeating" the Taliban and creating an effective central Afghan state.

Instead of nation-building (or more precisely, state-building) in Afghanistan, our main concern should be the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, and we should take care not to do anything in Central Asia that increases the chance that an anti-American terrorist group gets its hands on any of these weapons.  That requires careful judgment on what we should do, but also on what not to do.

Photo: RIZWAN TABASSUM/AFP/Getty Images

 

GRAND SEN-OR

7:28 PM ET

April 16, 2009

nation-building (or more

nation-building (or more precisely, state-building)

Professor, I like that State conscious correction;-)

President Obama has said that there is also a humanitarian element to the Afghanistan mission. A return of the Taliban, he points out, would condemn the Afghan people "to brutal governance, international isolation, a paralyzed economy, and the denial of basic human rights."

Big SF-State watching you, as if last 30 years was not "brutal governance, international isolation, a paralyzed economy, and the denial of basic human rights, plus numerous deaths and exile".
Give them a break Bro! turn your gaze to somewhere else, to Amish, cut their skirts and their hair, it is too long;->>>
Also, I am sure you will discover some more Wacos to evaporate out there, if you scratch the surface;->>

Grand Sen~or.

 

SAMEERA RASHID

8:42 AM ET

April 17, 2009

It had already been said

“We must see jihadists for the small, lethal, disjointed and miserable opponents that they are.” Mr. Mueller quotes a veteran CIA agent, Mr. Glenn Carle, to describe Al Qaida network and the diminishing threat posed by its operatives. Let’s dismantle the wisdom embedded in this remark by taking on the analogy of cancerous tumors.
Al- Qaeda Jihadists have metastasized. They are not what they were on or a few months after 9/11. And they are not where they were at the time of invasion of Afghanistan by NATO forces. The story goes like this: Al-Qaeda joined forces with Taliban; Taliban metamorphosed into Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan; and TTP are in nexus with Punjabi militants now.
This metastasis took place after war began in Afghanistan. But the cancerous cells were present in the blood stream even before that. The war in Afghanistan has created a mess that may turn into a full blown civil war in Pakistan. It sounds menacing. But look how events are unfolding in Pakistan: Swati militants- Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan have won the battle to impose Islamic law in Swat and they are not laying down their arms but increasing their brutal grasp over other regions. Pushtun Taliban militants have also cemented links with Punjabi militants and the former are providing them with logistical support.
The coalition of Pushtun-Punjabi militants may unleash bloody events in Punjab. In the first place, Punjab is not North-West-Frontier province: it has different terrain- plains instead of hills. Then, it has big urban centers, with sizable concentration of large-scale manufacturing industry. Punjabi Muslims are also moderate Muslims as compared to Pushtuns and a large chunk of them follow Sufistic brand of Islam. In view of creeping march of Talibaan, these trends augur well for the province. However, as they contain the seeds for resistance to Talibban assault, so they also carry the potential for prolonged instability and civil war like situation. Persistent turmoil would further weaken the central government and lead to displacement of people. So far Army action in FATA has displaced more than 500,000 people- largest internal displacement of people in Pakistan’s history.
Instability in Punjab which is the center of Pakistan can spread to India and Iran. All the terrorists involved in Mumbai attacks reportedly belonged to Punjab. So, if some more Mumbai-like attacks are carried out or even attempts made to launch such attacks, they would exacerbate tensions between India and Pakistan- nuclear powers- but also fuel the rise of right-wingers in India. And why bloodshed in Punjab would raise hackles in Iran? It is because Punjabi militants are hard core Sunnis and believe in killings of Shias- Iran is predominantly Shia- to attain their much desired goal of paradise.
Then, Talibaan are the children of war (even their recent followers come from very poor households who have been dehumanized by poverty), totally stripped of humanity and any notion of human decency. They believe in sheer brutality to extend their territorial control and in animalistic and barbaric methods to control minds of people. Their political philosophy is totally nihilistic; and their world-view is bipolar: people are divided as believers or non-believers, Sunnis or Shias, Wahabis or non-Wahabis and good or bad. Nothing falls between these envisioned extremities. And the role of women is functional: sexual and reproductive. Children of war have no need for female affection and companionship. Women are a nuisance and their proper place is within the confines of the home. Women have no right to education as education may beget ideas and ideas are always dangerous: Such ideas may threaten their brutal hold over people.
So, what is the result of the propagation and ruthless implementation of philosophy and ideas of Talibaan and their ilk? It is gradual constriction of intellectual and cultural space in Pakistan. Liberal elite or secularists are on a retreat; and public discourse is largely being dominated by right-wingers. And that implies further radicalization and spread of radical ideas to other countries.
But sending more NATO forces in Afghanistan will not solve the problem. The need is to look for creative solutions. For one, USA must understand recruitment dynamics of Talibaan. These seem to be anger over drone attacks, army action in FATA, coercion by Talibaan, poverty and madrassah education system. Then, Pakistan army –arbiter of security policy- must be engaged, influenced and equipped for counter-insurgency operations.
The civilian structures must also be bolstered by providing socio-development aid. Pakistani state is practically a theocratic state. Its moorings warrant overhaul. Aid may be given in lieu of secularization of institutions.
And Afghanistan will stabilize through political agreement and a bit of forced social transformation. There is no short cut to it.Otherwise jihadists will only spread in a different guise.

 

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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