Update: Juan Cole responds on Pakistan

Posted By Stephen M. Walt Monday, April 27, 2009 - 3:22 PM Share

Partly in response to my previous post, Juan Cole explains why he is not worried about a Taliban takeover in Pakistan. Well worth reading.

EXPLORE:CENTRAL ASIA, PAKISTAN, TERRORISM, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY
 

CLINT

4:14 PM ET

April 27, 2009

Juan Cole i smostly right but...

...he underestimates the potential of Punjab falling to the Taliban due to the land reforms (ad hoc though they may) that the Taliban are carrying out. As the NYT reported recently the Taliban have advanced deeper into Pakistan by engineering a class revolt that exploits profound fissures between a small group of wealthy landlords and their landless tenants.

They may be medieval but their land reform movement is very progressive and empowering to the rural class.

It is class warfare in the guise of religious radicals and/or vice-versa.

That is the danger. And it could lead to the downfall of the govt.

 

CLINT

5:18 PM ET

April 27, 2009

case in point

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/04/26/pakistan.taliban.message/index.html?eref=rss_world

 

DURA-SELL

7:36 PM ET

April 27, 2009

Cole' s view

On the whole, I agree with Cole's view that the belief that Pakistan will be taken over by the Taliban is inaccurate. However, I do not agree with his over sanguine view of the health of the country as such. If the economy, etc. have been doing as well as he points out, Pakistan would not be looking at the IMF and similar such institutions for bailouts. He overemphasizes the positive aspects. Maybe it is necessary to do so in light of the grim reporting in the media, but he definitely goes overboard.

As far as the panic generated in the west, I think it is based on a worst case understanding - a fallout of 9/11. Many are looking at wildfires that could hit the US next, and what grimmer prospect than a bunch of zealots getting hold of nukes and aiming them at the US or US assets. The problem is that many analyze developments in South Asia with US security in mind - and hence the tendency to forever press the panic button. While people like Kilcullum have played an important role in counter insurgency thinking, his prediction that there exists a 75% chance of Pak caving in is difficult to agree with.

To re-emphasize my point which I made in an earlier posting, Pakistan is NOT in as mortal a danger as we think it is in. Once the state acts like any normal state should, such as react to an emergency, things will start getting better. All the grim predictions were made in a situation when the army was in the barracks or not playing the role that it should. This is not to suggest that it will be a cake walk for the army in its fight in the coming days, but that the situation will improve, if one is obsessed with indices on territory (eg. the Taliban is 100 miles from Islamabad!!)

 

BRETT

8:10 PM ET

April 27, 2009

I think he's a bit sanguine

I think he's a bit sanguine on the state of the country (although the restoration of democracy is definitely a plus), but he more or less is right; the Taliban are not really in anything resembling the position to take over all of Pakistan, including the Punjabi and Sindhi areas that have most of the population, wealth, and soldiers.

He's understating the capabilities of the Taliban in NWFP and the FATA, though, and that's what worries me. I'm not so much afraid of Pakistan falling to the Taliban as it being fragmented by it, just like how Bangladesh broke off from Pakistan proper in 1971. I'm afraid that what will happen is that the Pakistani government will effectively cede much of the NWFP and FATA to the Taliban and their ilk, and we'll basically end up with a de facto "Pashtunistan" that we can't do anything about for political reasons (i.e., it's still part of Pakistan technically). That would probably de-stabilize the southern part of Afghanistan as well.

 

CLINT

1:23 PM ET

April 28, 2009

Taleban are supported because they bring rule of law

Taleban are supported because they bring the rule of law.

Sharia is medieval but for the rural poor it is better than corrupt govt courts or no law at all.

The spread of Taleban has little to do with religion and more to do with an uprising of rural poor who are locked out of their own country even though they make up most of the population.

Want to fix things? Improve rule of law, police, courts and carry out land reforms and have a real education system.

This will never be won with guns.

 

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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