Whenever I hear words like "outposts" and "new", I prick up my ears to listen for the dog whistle. In this case, you don't even have to listen that hard.

International law - and the EU I believe - regard Israel's West Bank settlements as illegal. However, Israel itself seems to make finer distinctions among:

1. Authorized existing settlements,
2. Authorized expansions of existing settlements,
3. Unauthorized expansions of existing settlements, and
4. Unauthorized settlements.

I believe they apply the term "outpost" only to the latter.

What worries me is that Biden seems to think he should get some sort of courage points for telling Aipac that Israel should stop building new settlements, and should dismantle outposts. But telling Israel to dismantle outposts is something most Israelis already support. (They think that Jews should only build settlements where Israel's government "authorizes" building settlements, apparently convinced Israel possesses the authority to issue such "authorizations.)

And the the requirement that Israel should not build new settlements is consistent, in the Israeli mind, that they should allow for the "natural growth" of existing settlements. And the latter, as I understand it, is already Netanyahu government policy!

So far, it doesn't look like the Obama administration is at all willing to go anywhere risky in its statements on Palestine. The administration and its cheerleaders seem convinced, instead, that everything short of offering to drive the damn bulldozers themselves constitutes "getting tough".

I couldn't agree more with the criticism of Emanuel's linkage of Iranian nuclear program and the I-P problem.

There is no way we should throw our relationship with 70 million Iranians under the bus of Israeli paranoia and presumption. Nor should we even go near the suggestion that we might trade some Iranian lives - the ones in the target zone of a bombing run - for Israeli cooperation in ending an illegal occupation and colonization movement.

The opening up of a new relationship between Washington and Tehran will be good for the US and good for global security. That's all. It's none of Israel's special business.

Israel and its supporters sometimes behave as if they regard the entire West Bank and its people as some sort of hostage that they will "generously" release if the US and the world give them what they want. But we shouldn't negotiate with hostage-takers.

Two states for two peoples is not a perfect outcome...

Interesting Walt thinks this. What is?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/06/us-israel-palestinians-middle-east

Front Page Guardian -- where is the US Press?

US pro-Israeli group attempts to stop shift in White House Middle East policy

Aipac urges Congress members to sign letter to Barack Obama calling for Israel to set pace of negotiations with Palestinians

* Chris McGreal in Washington
* guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 6 May 2009 13.55 BST

US congressional leaders and the most powerful pro-Israel lobby group in the US are attempting to forestall a significant shift in the White House's Middle East policy.

The move comes amid growing signs that the US president, Barack Obama, intends to press for urgent efforts to be made towards the creation of a Palestinian state.

The Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, is visiting Washington later this month amid growing expectations that Obama is preparing to take a tougher line over Israel's reluctance to actively seek a two-state solution to its conflict with the Palestinians.

It will be the first time that Netanyahu and Obama have met since both were elected.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac) this week sent hundreds of lobbyists to urge members of Congress to sign a letter to Obama.

The letter, written by two House of Representatives leaders, calls for Israel to be allowed to set the pace of negotiations.

The lobbying came despite critics saying Netanyahu has consistently failed to commit himself to the creation of a Palestinian state.

The letter calls for the maintenance of the status quo, with an emphasis on Palestinian institution-building before there can be an end to Israeli occupation.

It says the US "must be both a trusted mediator and devoted friend of Israel".

Aipac's move to put pressure on members of Congress came at the end of its annual conference in Washington this week.

Some of the loudest applause at the gathering came in response to calls for military attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities – something Netanyahu has attempted to portray as a more urgent issue than the Palestinian question.

But Aipac delegates were told by the US vice-president, Joe Biden, that the administration favours "mutual respect" in dealing with Iran.

Biden said the Israeli-Palestinian conflict strengthened Iran's strategic position and Israel must take concrete steps – including fulfilling often-broken commitments to stop the expansion of Jewish settlements – towards the creation of a Palestinian state.

Last week, General James Jones, Obama's national security adviser, told a European foreign minister that the new administration would be "forceful" with Israel, according to a classified Israeli memo reported by the Ha'aretz newspaper.

Jones was quoted as saying that Obama believes Washington, the EU and moderate Arab states must define "a satisfactory endgame solution".

"The new administration will convince Israel to compromise on the Palestinian question," he was quoted as saying. "We will not push Israel under the wheels of a bus, but we will be more forceful toward Israel than we have been under Bush."

During his election campaign, Obama alarmed Israel's hardline supporters by saying he regarded the lack of a resolution to the conflict as a "constant sore" that "infect[s] all of our foreign policy".

Netanyahu dare not openly defy Washington, and yesterday told the Aipac conference by satellite that he was ready for negotiations with the Palestinians.

But Aipac has moved to counter any new White House initiative by trying to mobilise Congress against it through the letter, written by two people seen as extremely close to the lobby group – Steny Hoyer, the Democratic majority leader in the House of Representatives, and Eric Cantor, the Republican whip.

The two men addressed an Aipac banquet attended by more than half the members of Congress on Monday, each standing in turn at a "roll call" of support for Israel.

On the face of it, the letter is a call for a peace, but its specifics urge Obama to maintain years of US policy that has tacitly accepted Israeli stalling of peace negotiations.

The letter says that "the best way to achieve future success between Israelis and Palestinians will be by adhering to basic principles that have undergirded our policy".

These include "acceptance that the parties themselves must negotiate the details of any agreement" as well as demanding that the Palestinians first "build the institutions necessary for a viable state" before gaining independence.

Jeremy Ben-Ami, the leader of J-street, a pro-Israel lobby group that favours the swift establishment of a Palestinian state, said that, while Aipac claims it supports a two-state solution, the letter is an attempt to prevent the White House from putting pressure on Israel to make that happen.

"They don't come right out and say we don't want Israel to make concessions, we don't want Israel to leave the West Bank," he said.

"They'll say, 'Of course we believe there should be peace'. But then they'll do what this letter does. "They'll say, 'When the Israeli government decides it is ready to have a two-state solution, then there'll be a two-state solution'."

Aipac wields considerable influence in the US Congress. Its critics say that what amounts to bullying pressure tactics has narrowed the room for debate about Israel, and claim the group has played a leading role in unseating some members of Congress who were critical of the Jewish state's policies.

* guardian.co.uk © Guardian News and Media Limited 2009

The point to keep clearly in mind is that a two-state solution is good for the United States, good for Israel, and good for the Palestinians

Professor, as a realist I would rather phrase it like this:

The point to keep clearly in mind is that a two-state solution is good for the United States, good for Jews, and good for the Palestinians

Because as you know neither one-state nor two-state is a solution Israel is after. Check this out with Mearsheimer, if you don't believe me;->>

But if I were Jew I would look for a more realistic solution than two-state sacrifice, I would sacrifice the State of Israel altogether in the name of G-d to display my gratitude for the Greater Israel G-d endowed, to consolidate it further.

But then I am just an alien;->>

J. Baker's statement:

Jim Baker's infamous 1989 speech telling AIPAC that it was time for Israel to "lay aside once and for all the unrealistic dream of a Greater Israel,"

is not realistic at all, Jews already have the Greater Israel in modern terms all they missing is their right to law. And I don't think J. Baker meant "the right to law" when he said "unrealistic dream".

BTW, you don't need to be invited to AIPAC Conferences any more, everyday is a Conference on your Blog here;->>

Grand Sen~or.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1081978.html

That would be Netanyahu and Lieberman. We can expect vicious charades.

"These are all encouraging signs, especially when one considers the implications of new Israeli government figures showing that Israeli Jews are now a minority in the land under their de facto control."

I am just stunned that someone who has a PhD and considers himself a scholar would site an opinion column of some unknown person who does not link to any source. Walt shows the same lack of intellectual rigor and curiosity he gave to his book.

As for the statistics of Palestinians in the West bank and Gaza. He cites no source for them and "official" PA numbers are notoriously overstated for both politics and foreign aid.

Demographic studies have shown that the Palestinian’s own birth, death, and voting records prove that their census "statistics" are overstated by over a million people.
http://www.aei.org/docLib/20060228_AEIMillionPerson.pdf

and that it was seeking a state only in the areas occupied by Israel in 1967.

What he actually said was that for giving into every Palestinian demand including a right of return for millions of Palestinians (ie destroying Israel), he would offer a 10 year Hunda before he started to kill Jews again. See quote below. I do not deny, however, that for Walt this is right direction to go.

On the two-state solution sought by the Americans, he said: "We are with a state on the 1967 borders, based on a long-term truce. This includes East Jerusalem, the dismantling of settlements and the right of return of the Palestinian refugees" Asked what "long-term" meant, he said 10 years.

Walt goes on to say:

Ever mindful of shifting political winds, AIPAC seems to be lining up behind a two-state solution as well, albeit with lots of conditions attached.

AIPAC has favored a two state solution for years. For example, here is a document from 2007. Sorry to burst your "gotcha" moment.

The solution to the Palestinian refugee issue will need to be found through the establishment of a Palestinian state, and the settling of Palestinian refugees there.

http://www.aipac.org/Publications/AIPACAnalysesMemos/AIPAC_Memo_-_Annapolis_-_Potential_for_Progress_If.pdf

Let's file Walt's statement under his rule number 10 for fear mongering.

The good is: There are voices, such as professor Walt, professor Mearsheimer, The "bipartisan group,"... that have the Courage (notice the capital C) to confront the elephant sitting in the lobby of our Congress and present rational proposals for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a fair and equitable way, which would bring stability to the region, reduce the need for military adventurism on our part, further our strategic interests, bring justice to the Palestinian plight,...

The bad is: AIPAC, besides not inviting professor Walt to speak at its convention, is obviously and transparently obstructing rational measures to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and thus is countering our strategic national interests,

and a majority of Congressional members whom we elect to protect and further our national interests listen to AIPAC, and not professor Walt et al

and the unknown is: Why do we as a great democratic nation with strategic interests in the Middle East allow our foreign policy to be directed by a small group of people pursuing their personal agenda in conflict with our vital national interests? We understand fairly well how it is accomplished. But, WHY do we as a nation of intelligent, independent people allow it to be done?

you ask: "We understand fairly well how it is accomplished. But, WHY do we as a nation of intelligent, independent people allow it to be done?"

It is called propaganda. Israel is presented as a victim.

Whereas it is an aggressive, nuclear-armed nation gobbling $3billion of US taxpayers $ per year just for its military and implementing apartheid in the occupied territories.

Also, being anti-Arab, anti-muslim is OK in USA (cf. WSJ), but being anti-zionist (or, shudder, antisemitic) is totally unacceptable.

The tide is turning by bold mainstream media carrying these types of reports:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4752349n

Arab American Two-Staters Go Insane

Page 30 of that chart puts the estimated total Arab population in Israel at about 40% of the population as of 2004.

That is not correct. The left most pie chart on page 30 has the Arab population of Israel as 19%. The right most pie chart on page 30 (which includes Israel, the west bank, and Gaza) has the Jewish population as 59 percent and the Arab population as 31%.

The Arabs in Gaza have an annual compound growth rate of 1.8 percent as shown by graph second from the right graph on page 33. Israeli Jews 2.1 percent. Gaza Arabs 2.9 percent and Israeli Arabs 3.3 percent.

There were 5.2 million Israeli Jews at the end of 2003 as per the graph on page 28. Applying a 2.1 compound growth rate, there are now 5.77 million Israeli Jews.

There were 1.4 million Arabs in the west bank at the end of 2003 as per the graph on page 28. Applying a 2.9 compound growth rate, there are now 1.62 million Arabs in the Gaza.

There were 1.07 million Arabs in the Gaza at the end of 2003 as per the graph on page 28. Applying a 1.8 compound growth rate, there are now 1.17 million Arabs in the Gaza.

There were 1.3 million Israeli Arabs at the end of 2003 as per the graph on page 28. Applying a 3.3 compound growth rate, there are now 1.53 million Israeli Arabs.

Israeli Jews therefore currently make up 57.1 percent of the total population of the west bank, Gaza, and Israel.

The united states asks israel to follow the road map, israel says it will consider it if the united states removes the nuclear threat from persia (iran), a country who haven't attacked another country for over a thousand years, and are simply eccoing what the rest of the wrorld is saying about the disgraceful actions of israel regarding all past promises to the united nations, and its continuing abuse to every neighbor, and its false claims that all the neighbors have been attacking them for years and started the previous military conflicts, when in fact, they have all always began with the israeli air force attacking all its neighbors air forces and disabling them simultaneously, leaving israel with the only country in the conflict having an air force capable of winning all the conflicts, and they have won all the conflicts because of this reason. to dispute the previous statement would be a lie. what is true is that israel has been methodically taking land for its every growing population for the last 60 years. It doesn't take a profit to tell the future in the middle east. Israel consists mostly of secular minded communities who refuse to llive near anyone not their, servants, hirelings, or really good customers. They double their population every twenty years, everyone of age is either on active duty or active duty reserves, they are armed by the united states later generation aircraft, and other military supplies and pose a strong threat to any american elected official, who does not go along with their expansionist agenda via a predatorial lobby presence in washington and effective control of the newsmedia. The israelis have removed the american manufacturing infrastructure and set it up in china, where they do all of chinas IT Work and effectively control the country. They are downsizing the american military structure while building chinas military with modern technology they get from the USA, and will use china to mercenary for them if the conflicts threaten them. The United States has become a goods and service country, minium wage jobs triple every 10 years. Israel receives more cash from the american treasury than the americans do, and have built a modern country capable of significant destruction to a big area, say 300 bombs that clear a 3 mile radius area if the countries under attack cannot defend themselves, or so is their claim, and they further claim that if they face significant attacks and have to actually defend themselves without the USA fighting for them that they will attack the USA and europe and claim they are capable of starting WWIII. The USA simply asks them to follow the road map to peace, and they refuse. Iran like the countries throughout the world seeks nuclear power for electricity, Israel says that they cannot be allowed this option. The reason is clear, As time marches on, israel will continue to ethnically cleanse their neighbors and continue their outward settlements. Israel is not the only place in the world to suffer the israeli phenomena. I have lived within orthodox communities, and have studied the israeli Public Relations Stunt squads, on the internet, and through the world theough their effective control of the antiquated news media. I see their illfated attempts to disable the internet and the information revolution, which is changing the way people think about about the little child, who cried wolf. In this scenario the little child is strategically stationed throughout the world. and suffers from some form of self imposed hypnosis, and somehow have come to believe the words they write about themselves and their multiple claims, about a great and wonderful, if not magical nation of people who control the economies of the world, Its almost unbelievable a group of virtual common criminals, effectively the largest, best armed criminal commercial gang the world has ever faced have convinced themselves they will soon close the gaps of economic control and create a one world government. And will do it by completely undoing the world, as it is and simply controling the world through the belief that people are what the read, see in the media, are taught in school, and obey the predatory laws they enact. Imagine that- groups of men dressed up like abraham lincoln, the ones in control have the mink lined black coats and real silk. Women are like chattel, other sub-cultures are like slaves, and they, the royalty, are simply the rulers, because of economic entitlement, and the will to destroy, by whatever means any entiety who happens to be a business competitor. Or doesn't bow down to their will. They are fueled by lust and greed, they have abandoned nature and replaced it with fashion and law, which they control, denaturing the earth. The Movie " Matrix " or "Chronicles of Riddick" are similar of a possible future to their illfounded beliefs. In truth they are nothing more than consumers themselves, who suffer the same disadvantage of any other culture, and when they speak of their believed power, they are indeed a paper tiger. They are invincible against a neighbor who has suffered their insane rage for 60 years, living in virtual prison camps on less than $ 3.00 a day, without any significant means to stop their encroaching secular communities, and would be no different than their neighbor if they were forced to live out the hoplessness lives of anyone unfortunate enough to be their neighbor and not become a humble servant, willing to live off their scraps, and abandon any chance of an educated life. The problem they face is one greater than themselves, it called " Reality " one their temple balls (hashish) they prefer affgani, refuses to allow them enough focal resolution to entertain. They actually believe their PR guys and the inability of the one book (internet) to allow the world to see them for who they are will result in their endtime ( One when their own children abandon their ways and join with the rest of the world ) in a common search for truth, one where all the land becomes holy land and all their children are chosen to have an equal opportunity with the rest of the children of the world. A world who has respect for their neighbor, and is not fooled into believing words without valid premise, especially a world of monarchy, we have gone down that road before, the world rejected it, its almost finished, God, is a word ment to describe truth, the absence of a lie, the spiritual world, which almost all have hope in, we all hope there is something more to life than life and death, few are seerers, and you would not believe if you did not actually see it yourself, regardless of how much you love your parents, and your friends. A lot of people go along with the crowd because they don't want to be left out, some with a lot of cohersion and drugs, and threats and intimidation, will give up their very own life, to fight for what they believe in. And many many others will serve a country who believes in god, a word ment to describe the truth, allowing man individual freedom to persue that dream, and the opportunity for; life, liberty, and the persuit of happiness, a life well lived, having unconditional love for your family and your fellow man. Thats the American way. When its threatened, The American people, of every race, color, religion, will join in an effort to remove that threat, regardless of what the pseudo-elected officials enact into law, or what the high-end universities teach. In truth we are already deep into a world changing revolution. Its the information revolution, where lasting education comes from interest alone, and armed with one book, that no sub-culture can destroy, will go forward into a better world, one that leaves the criminality behind, even if it requires anarchy to accomplish this. The world will be free, to go forward, not backward in time, regardless of whatever the veiled royalty enacts into law. and we will develop instrumentation you can dream of, and the fashion-legal-political-energy barons will live and die, and with them their ways. in the spirit of truth, pardon the grammer errors

the unknown, thats the truth, for now, but the future will change into a unified world, and we will grow better in time, or we will continue as now and perish into an unknown world having lost every element of natural intelligence, dressing up in abe lincoln hats and black long coats and shoes, smoking hashish for the religious imagination it allows, and get high, nodding our heads back and forth, in front of some imaginary wall, chanting, less intelligent than a sparrow