Wednesday, June 10, 2009 - 4:59 PM

I'm jetlagged in Geneva, but I spent part of the flight over thinking about thee bits of seemingly good news:
1. The pro-Western March 14 coalition won a clear victory in the Lebanese election, a promising step towards more enduring stability in that deeply-divided country.
2. The Iranian presidential election campaign has turned into a real dogfight between incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi. Although recent polls in Iran suggest that Ahmadinjed will still win, Mousavi seems to be gaining ground and there may well be a run-off. Even if Mousavi loses, there's clearly a lot of popular disconnect with Ahmadinejad's rule, and a lot of it centers around his bizarrely self-defeating approach to foreign policy. (Side note: is there any other major world figure who has done as much public relations damage to his own country's image and interests? Nominations welcome). Moreover, there seems to be widespread popular support for improving relations with the United States.
3. The New York Times reports that some Pakistani villagers are turning against the Taliban, and may even be supporting the government's more active role against them.
It would be a mistake to give Barack all (or even most) of the credit for these developments, but I don't think its completely unrelated either. (Juan Cole agrees, see here). By striking a fundamentally different tone towards all three countries (and the Arab/Muslim world in general), Obama hasn't made reflexive anti-Americanism go away. But he has made it a less potent political weapon, so leaders like Ahmadinejad or Sheik Nasrallah don't reap the same domestic benefits from America-bashing. (Even Republicans should recognize that Bush and Cheney were nearly-ideal bogeymen; heck, even GOP candidates in the last election did their best to pretend they didn't know them.) It's also possible that Pakistan's government decided to take a more assertive stance against the Taliban after President Zardari got a rather chilly reception up on Capitol Hill, where several key members suggested that they weren't going to shell out endless billions to a government that continued to play footsie with Mullah Omar and his associates. The key lesson: if the United States stops trying to do everything itself, sometimes others will start addressing common problems because it is in their interest to do so too.
Matt Yglesias is right: elections in most countries turn on local conditions and issues and not on what's happening in Washington. But it sure looks like Obama's approach is helping tip the scale in the right direction. Legendary baseball executive Branch Rickey used to say that "luck is the residue of design." If Obama has been getting "lucky" the past week or so, maybe that suggests that his foreign policy design is better suited to contemporary world conditions than that of his predecessor.
KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/Getty Images
EXPLORE:CENTRAL ASIA, MIDDLE EAST, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, IRAN, ISLAM, LEBANON, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY
is 30 days old!!! If you have been following recent events in Iran you'd know that things have completely turned around.
Branch Rickey used to say that "luck is the residue of design."
Professor, maybe you should elect this guy as your leader to changed the archaic design of State to get lucky;->>
Obama was talking based on the Old Design, he didn't promise any design change, therefore it is not fair to expect miracles from his talks.
Grand Sen~or.
America and its ruling elite have a huge responsibility
The ideological elite that governs America has been aiding and abaiting Pakistan to launch this offensive, so we must never forget that every single American have the ultimate responsibility for that 3 million people now have been displaced. Without the foul attack on Taliban's heartland in the south of Aghanistan (to where they retreated following air bombardments on their forward positions in Oct/Nov 2001) in 2005 -- from 2006 under the command of NATO -- there would have been no displacements of 3 millions Pakistanis. Make no mistake about it! It is absolutely essential that Americans -- while they are sitting in their comfy homes eating their dougnuts -- understand that ultimately they -- through their elected government -- are ultimately responsible for these poor peoples plight.
You say: What have attacks in Aghanistan in 2005-06 got to do with Pakistanis being displaced in 2008-09?
Reply: That it should be necessary to pose this question show the fog through which Americans views foreign affairs.
There are no scientific polls, but in informal interviews by The Associated Press with more than three dozen Pakistanis across the country Wednesday and Thursday, not a single person expressed sympathy or allegiance toward the Taliban. MSNews
Professor, I hope you don't base your following argument on news-paper gossip coloumns;->
3. The New York Times reports that some Pakistani villagers are turning against the Taliban, and may even be supporting the government's more active role against them.
Professor, please ask yourself, would you dare to say "Oh Yess! I like their turban, I'm going to wear one like theirs if I can afford to have one, can you tip me couple of dollars!" while your State declared war on Taliban, when the Associated Press reporter questioned you?
What is this joke Mate?! Is that how you develop FP actions based on statistics like that?! I hope your Nuclear Physicists don't work like FP gurus;->>
If they do, wait a few surprises mushroom around your houses;->>
Today I was decided to take a break, telling myself "I've said enough!!" but when I read that piece of news and associated it with your article, I broke my fast;->
I hope one of these days I run away and have a break;->>
Grand Sen~or.
"Side note: is there any other major world figure who has done as much public relations damage to his own country's image and interests? "
ummm, Bush?
As for celebrating point 1 (Lebanon), I am afraid US allies there (i.e. Saad Hariri and his coterie) are allied with the recruiters for Zarqawi (i.e. very radical Sunni Islamists from Northern Lebanon). All paid for by the Saudis. And stability or political transparency or civil (rather sectarian) laws probably won't come anytime soon.
The only thing that is good about March 14 getting re-elected in Lebanon is that Israel simply won't have the excuse of Hizbullah being in power to attack Lebanon (though they have never needed excuses for sheer outright military aggression).
I'm shocked--shocked--that Ahmadinejad won in a landslide in Iran, especially after the 'Obama effect'.
How about you, Mr. Realist?
Is anyone shocked with this?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/12/AR2009061202593.html
A judge has dramatically reduced the sentence for a former Pentagon analyst who pleaded guilty to leaking classified information to an Israeli diplomat and two pro-Israel lobbyists.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/12/AR2009061202593.html
Well, if there is no Israel Lobby then there is no case. I think the Judge made a mistake, he should dismiss the case on the base that there is no such a Lobby;->>>
Don't get shocked Mate, enjoy the Show while it lasts;->>>
Professor! It is all your fault Mate!
You said "out there there is a hazy conglomerate of Israel Lobby!" people/judges started getting confused;->>
Grand Sen~or.
Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.
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