What Iran means

Tue, 06/23/2009 - 2:06pm

The New York Times has an important piece today on why Iran's clerical regime is unlikely to fall in the face of the current wave of protests. The short version is that Iran's rulers have several overlapping security organizations that they can call upon: the police, some three million members of paramilitary Basij, the 120,000-strong Revolutionary Guards, and an army of some 400,000. All report to Ayatollah Khameini and as far as one can tell from news reports, none of them show significant signs of disintegrating.

This story points to a serious lacuna in our understanding of what is happening in Iran. Despite the government’s efforts to exclude correspondents and shut down other channels of information (e.g., the Internet), we've been getting lots of reports and videos from the reformist forces.  But I haven't seen any interviews or tweets from Basij members or Revolutionary Guards, or from the millions of Iranians who did in fact vote for Ahmadinejad. In short, we have no good way of knowing how firm the government’s position really is.

The literature on revolutionary upheavals teaches that governments do not fall so long as the leadership remains resolute and the security forces and the army remain loyal. If the Basij, Revolutionary Guards, and other security elements remain willing to follow orders -- and that seems to be the case so far -- then Iran's current leaders will remain in charge.  

The only prospect for genuine revolution that I can see would be a prolonged and growing wave of popular discontent -- general strikes, funeral demonstrations that get bigger over time (as they did in 1979), etc., -- that begins to make normal life impossible, does further damage to Iran’s already-troubled economy and eventually leads to a major rift among the current rulers and to a major reshuffling of the leadership. But it is hard for me to imagine Khameini or Ahmadinejad boarding a plane into exile the way the Shah did in 1979.

Yet even if the current regime survives the present challenge, the impact of the crisis is likely to be salutary. Iran's appeal as a model of Islamic governance has been tarnished by this episode: instead of being the principled defenders of the Ayatollah Khomeini's revolutionary vision of the "rule of the jurisprudent," his successors now look more like garden-variety authoritarians trying to hang onto privilege and power in the face of widespread popular discontent. And that means Muslims elsewhere will be less inclined to see Tehran as an inspiration, even if they are unhappy with political conditions in their own countries.

The current crisis may also put to rest a lot of the bellicose talk about military action. In recent years, advocates of "kinetic action" (read: preventive war) against Iran have sought to portray it as a nation of wild-eyed revolutionary fanatics, led by Holocaust-denying zealots who openly crave martyrdom and would therefore be willing to fire nuclear weapons at other countries even if it led to their own destruction. That alarmist image was always pretty ludicrous, and it looks increasingly inappropriate today. In the wake of this stolen election (and see here for more evidence of electoral chicanery), Iran's rulers looks less like a group of fanatics and more like a group of grumpy old men. I don't see Osama bin Laden or Che or Qutb or even Khomeini; I see Brezhnev, Andropov, Mussolini, or Ceaucescu. It is also clear that a sizeable segment of Iran’s population -- and especially its younger members -- isn't interested in a confrontation with the West and simply wants many of the freedoms that we claim to cherish. They are also patriots who love their country, however, and the surest way to turn them against us and to reinforce Ahmadinejad et al would be to start dropping a lot of smart bombs on them.  

In fact, we actually do know precisely how to deal with this sort of situation. As we learned during the Cold War, the proper response to thuggish authoritarian regimes is containment via deterrence, combined with hardnosed diplomacy on specific security issues and a sustained effort to win over their societies by showing them that we know how to produce a better way of life. That strategy won the Cold War without the manifold dangers of preventive war, and probably saved millions of lives in the process. The clerics and their front man may hang on for now, and they might even get a few (unusable) nuclear weapons one day. But time is on our side, and we can afford to be patient.

OLIVIER LABAN-MATTEI/AFP/Getty Images



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Excellent summary . . .

. . . of the likely consequences of this moment. Thanks.

failed summary

Walt clearly states we can do nothing.

That's not a summary, that's cowardice.

No

No dumbass -- he suggests we can use deterrence to make sure that Iran is not a threat to the US. Which is true -- see the National Defense University study quoted below.

Iran is, will always be, and should be a threat to Israel, since Israel indulges in state-sponsored terrorism against muslims.

just hold your horses, allan...

AllanGreen says...

Walt clearly states we can do nothing.

That's not a summary, that's cowardice.

.

this phony election ploy is turning out pretty good for the neocons...

they will eventually have to bomb iran, and this caper should help the pre-war propaganda campaign a lot.

iran has to be bombed because it's the remaining big hole in the neocons' wall.

Even if crackdown is successful, Iran changes

In practice, even a hard crackdown necessitates some kind of concession. Like in China after Tien An Men - the protestors were split between workers unhappy with economic opening-up and student leaders who wanted to accelerate it. The protestors' demand for greater political openness wasn't respected - and yet, after the crackdown, economic liberalization accelerated.

It'll also mean a shift in leadership more than likely. Tien An Men was the sort of the last hurrah for Deng and his cronies. Pretty soon Jiang and the Shanghai Clique were all over the place. I believe it also paradoxically led to a decrease in the prominence of the PLA within the leadership, but I could be wrong on that.

There's no chance the Iran situation follows in exact parallel. But even a successful crackdown won't be a return to status quo ante.

Deng never lost his

Deng never lost his influence. When Jiang initially did not further reform China economically, it was Deng made the decisive push and actually told Jiang that if Jiang could not continue to reform, Deng would replace him too. That was 1992.

But it is hard for me to

But it is hard for me to imagine Khameini or Ahmadinejad boarding a plane into exile the way the Shah did in 1979.

You might be surprised, at least in the case of Khamenei. From some of what I've read, Rasfaghani is basically building a coalition to remove Khamenei from power.

If it happens

it won't have the consequences for Khamenei that it did for the Shah. He'll be treated by the new authorities as an eclipsed but benign eminence gris.

Hard Data

We have NO IDEA how the vote really went.

Ahmedinejad (much as I dislike him) may well have won, if not by the huge margin quoted. A few elite Tehranis rioting is not a huge deal.

Ahmedinejad's victory by a 2-1 margin was predicted by the best polling pre-election, done by the New America Foundation:

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/TFT-NAF%20Iran%20Survey%20Report%20.pdf

...or we can go dig our heads in the sand like the rest of the media................

100% RIGHt

And that's why a new vote must take place. As things stand, Ahmedi-nejad has no data either - so his whole "I won crap" is founded on absolutely nothing. The protesters who say the numbers were made up, are ABSOLUTELY correct.

Yes

Yes dumbass and let's re-do the 2000 US elections also.

And that's why a new vote

And that's why a new vote must take place. .... The protesters who say the numbers were made up, are ABSOLUTELY correct.

The protestors don't actually have a lot of reliable data to base that on, and you have very little to base your claim on.

The iranian government might decide on a new vote. We'll wait and see. They've volunteered to recount a random 10%, which might reveal something. Most accounts claiming fraud claim that it was not done thoroughly enough to falsify the actual ballots. If that's right, and if the iranian government doesn't go back and falsify the ballots now, then this approach would reveal the fraud if it is fraud.

In that case they could just do a recount and reveal the correct numbers. They could prosecute the individuals who falsified the results. It mostly blows over.

There are various ways it could go. Too soon to tell which of them will happen, or even which of them should happen.

A Call For American Boldness In Iran (DanielPipes.org)

From DanielPipes.org
June 22, 2009

A Call For American Boldness In Iran

by Daniel Pipes

In a striking coincidence, two very different expressions of Iranian dissent took place exactly simultaneously on two continents on Saturday, June 20. Between them, the Islamic Republic of Iran faces an unprecedented challenge.

One protest took place on the streets of Iran, where thousands of Iranians fed up with living under a religious tyranny defied Supreme Leader Ali Khamene'i's diktat that they accept the results of the June 12 presidential election, whereby President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad supposedly defeated his main challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi by a lopsided margin.

The protestors and Mousavi have both shown bravery but the former seem more radical than the latter. Mousavi's website announces that he does not seek confrontation with the "brothers" in Iran's security forces nor does he wish to challenge the "sacred system" instituted by Ayatollah Khomeini. Rather, the website declares, "We are confronting deviations and lies. We seek to bring reform that returns us to the pure principals of the Islamic Republic."

This timidity stands in contrast to the bold stance of the street protestors who shout "Death to the dictator" and even "Death to Khamene'i," an echo of the regime's perpetual slogans "Death to America" and "Death to Israel," implying a wish not just to correct Khomeini's "sacred system" but an aspiration to terminate the regime dominated by mullahs (Iran's clerics).

The other protest took place in a vast exhibition hall just north of Paris, where the largest and best organized Iranian opposition group, the Mujahedeen-e Khalq or the People's Mujahedeen of Iran (MeK or PMOI) joined with smaller groups to hold their annual meeting. About 20,000 people attended it, including me.

The assembly's most emotional moment came when the anxious crowd learned that their peaceful counterparts marching in Iran had been killed or wounded. At that moment, freedom of assembly in France contrasted most starkly with its denial in Iran. Later that day came confirmation of the regime's obsessive fears of the MeK, when deputy police chief, Ahmad Reza Radan, blamed MeK "thugs" for his own government's violence against the peaceful demonstrators.

The MEK mounted an impressive display in France, as it did at the last meeting I attended, in 2007, with dignitaries, made-for-television pageantry, and a powerful speech by its leader, Maryam Rajavi. Like the street protestors, she also called for the demise of the Khomeinist regime. In a 4,000-word speech, she steered blessedly clear of attacks on the United States or Israel and excluded the conspiracy-theory mongering so common to Iranian political life. Instead, she:

* Ridiculed the regime for portraying the demonstrators as Western agents.
* Bitterly complained that corpses of demonstrators were "wrapped in American flags" and then trampled upon.
* Condemned the regime's "crimes" in Iraq and its "export of terrorism" to Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, and Afghanistan.
* Predicted that "the beginning of the end" of the Islamic Republic of Iran is underway.
* Critiqued the Obama administration for giving yet another chance to the regime, noting that the Bush administration had met its representatives 28 times to no avail.

Rajavi has rightly called for a stronger U.S. policy toward Tehran, explaining in a recent interview that "The West can stop the nuclear program if it stands up to the mullahs."

Sadly, standing up to the mullahs has never been American policy. Jimmy Carter meekly accepted their rule. Ronald Reagan sent them arms. To win their favor, Bill Clinton put the MEK on the terrorism list. George W. Bush did not foil their nuclear weapons project. And Barack Obama hopes to gain concessions from Tehran on the nuclear weapons issue by distancing himself from the dissidents.

Instead, flux in Iran should invite boldness and innovation. It is time, finally, for a robust U.S. policy that encourages those yelling "Death to Khamene'i" and that takes advantage of the hyperbolic fear the MeK arouses in Iran's ruling circles (first step: end the MeK's preposterous listing as a terrorist organization).

As Rep. Peter Hoekstra (Republican of Michigan) notes, regime change in Iran becomes the more urgent if the mullahs will soon deploy nuclear weapons. The vital and potentially victorious movement building both on the streets of Iran and in the halls of Europe better represents not only Western values but also Western interests.

Mr. Pipes (www.DanielPipes.org) is director of the Middle East Forum and Taube distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. © 2009 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.

Pipes

Daniel Pipes (aka a-hole) runs Campus Watch who try to censor academic speech.

http://www.meforum.org/staff.php

Anything and everything he says should be ignored. Precisely the opposite of what Daniel Pipes the neocon zionist f-up says is usually a good course of action.

Precisely the opposite of

Precisely the opposite of what Daniel Pipes the neocon zionist f-up says is usually a good course of action.

If only it were that simple.

Unfortunately, Pipes is not that reliable. He may even suggest good policies occasionally by accident.

You're better off to ignore him than to use him for a reverse guide.

boo hoo f-ing hoo

Now Daniel Pipes cares about a few dead Iranians! ha!

In other circumstances he would call those people collateral damage.

Laughable hypocrisy !

Did You know?

Daniel Pipes opposes a Palestinian state and believes America should "inspire fear, not affection".

He is about 8 years too late in this case.

pipes

the bullshit is getting so deep that it's impossible to find the truth... but i think that's what the neocons are counting on... truth lost and gone, forever.

the bullshit gets so deep that you have to have a big war to blow the bullshit away, rewrite history, and supposedly start from a clean slate.

the hysteria about this iran election makes it look like the main media is hardening up ---a last throw of the dice? ...walt seems to be hardening up, and maybe there comes a point that everybody gives up, and, bowing to the inevitable, jumps on the bandwagon and gives the warmongers what they want.

this "nuclear primacy" stuff is real scary, because the neocons' american support structure is so weak they'll have to go to their strong point, the military, which is pretty much useless, itself...

but the ultimate club these primitives are relying on is the nukes... and not only the nukes, but preemptive first strikes on russia and china.

but that seems so insane that i keep coming back to the same old thing: this whole caper is cover for the biggest looting operation in history, except in the minds of the deathwish christian/samson option israeli fringe.

america has to be looted while the looting's good, before america collapses from oil shortages and the operation of the looters, themselves.

here's hoping the lunatic fringe doesnt find the nuke trigger... hoping also that the israelis can see that their samson option would be such a PR catastrophe that it would probably kill jewishness itself.

but maybe they're that desperate.

Compellence not deterrence

You may be right that it is for looting, but I think the West/Israel is not interested in peaceful deterrence with Iran and having to take their concerns into account -- therefore it is OK for them that Israel (a non-NPT state) has nukes and that Iran cannot even have civilian U enrichment.

The West (being wagged by USA/Israel) does not want peaceful deterrence, they want to have nuclear compellence -- being able to dictate and do whatever they please in the middle east.

This will end badly, since for long-term stability you HAVE to take Iran's concerns into account.

Iran is not a nuclear threat -- from the National Defence University study:

http://www.ndu.edu/inss/mcnair/mcnair69/McNairPDF.pdf

...desperate...

...or sick.

Good analysis

Thanks.

A nuclear Iran is no threat to the US

Kindly read what the National Defense University wrote on the subject of a nuclear-armed Iran:

http://www.ndu.edu/inss/mcnair/mcnair69/McNairPDF.pdf

To deal properly with Iran, one must not overhype the threat but rather attempt to understand Iran's motivations, something that the National Defense University has done (aove link).

The study concluded that Iran desires nuclear weapons mainly because it feels strategically isolated and that "possession of such weapons would give the regime legitimacy, respectability, and protection." In other words, Iran desires nuclear weapons for the purpose of deterrence, just like every other nuclear-armed nation.

The NDU study continued, "[W]e judge, and nearly all experts consulted agree, that Iran would not, as a matter of state policy, give up its control of such weapons to terrorist organizations and risk direct U.S. or Israeli retribution." And it said the "United States has options short of war that it could employ to deter a nuclear-armed Iran and dissuade further proliferation."

The most sensible way to approach the Iranian nuclear issue would be to work seriously toward eliminating nuclear weapons from the entire Middle East, starting with those in Israel (a non-NPT signatory rogue nation, unlike Iran).

Of course, having peaceful deterrence with Iran would mean that the US and its regional allies would have to reach some diplomatic compromises from time to time in the middle east which, in fact, would likely better serve the US' long term national interests anyway, as opposed to continuing a failed policy of compellence in the region.

North Tehran Syndrome

Dear professor Walt,
in a piece of your writing you mentioned "But I haven't seen any interviews or tweets from Basij members or Revolutionary Guards, or from the millions of Iranians who did in fact vote for Ahmadinejad."
so in this case i can assure you that your notes are just based on the reformist forces while you are not aware of the idea of those 63 percent who didnt vote for Mousavi.
do you think not knowning or not having seen any pieces of information on the side of gov fans may mean they have nothing to say?
in his review, James Petras has fully dealt with the issue taking every part of the society into consideration. as a person who is living in Iran and who was present in almost all demonstrations as a witness, i believe you r comments are too far from being true. this is not just your mistake, but those who always misjudge on Iran, discarding many facts and removing many factors from their conclusions.
in my opinion you -as a professor- are based on your data, but let me say, i think, your data are just part of what can be true, probably at most representing those 30% who voted for mousavi (what Petras calls it North Tehran Syndrome)
not bad to read this review:
http://petras.lahaine.org/articulo.php?p=1781&more=1&c=1

Data not emotions!

Agreed -- I _hate_ the current Iranian regime....

....HOWEVER, Ahmedinejad's victory by a 2-1 margin was predicted by the best polling pre-election, done by the New America Foundation:

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/TFT-NAF%20Iran%20Survey%20Report%20.pdf

Should be read by all media outlets prior to pontificating with their heads in the sand.

More data, less emotions please.

No evidence of election fraud in Iran

There is still no real evidence of election fraud in Iran. Every claim has been compiled and analyzed in detail at IranAffairs.com, and none stands up to scrutiny.

THINK: Was Mousavi, a former prime minister and very much regime insider, such a threat to the regime that they would have to resort to massive election fraud to keep him out of office? No.

Iranian nukes -- some more background...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2725a9fc-a467-11dc-a28d-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

We need to overhaul what is a flawed non-proliferation treaty

Published: December 7 2007 02:00

From Dr Yousaf Mahmood Butt.

Sir, David Miliband (“Why we must not take the pressure off Iran” December 5) is correct to point out that the Iranian uranium enrichment programme remains a concern despite the just-released US National Intelligence Estimate suggesting that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons programme in 2003.

However, no amount of “diplomacy with teeth” can compensate for what is fundamentally a flaw in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): signatory nations (such as Iran) are allowed by law to enrich uranium – ostensibly for peaceful uses – and thus collect the raw material needed, should they wish, for a bomb.

Instead of the selective application of United Nations sanctions to nations perceived to be unfriendly or unco-operative by the west (eg, No to Iran, Yes to Brazil for uranium enrichment), it would make more sense to overhaul the 1970 NPT; and, while at it, also make sure that the new treaty punishes more aggressively those (predominantly western) nations that do not abide by their arms-reduction obligations in the current NPT.

“If someone asks me to disarm and keep a slingshot while he comes at me with a cannon, what good does that do?” Brazillian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has said of the NPT; but it could well be said by the Iranian government in reference to Israel, which is openly allowed by the west to stockpile 200 or so nuclear warheads in the region.

It is telling that President Ford, in 1976, encouraged Iran (then under the US-backed shah) to build both uranium enrichment as well as plutonium processing plants. How is it that what was permissible then under the 1970 NPT, has now become forbidden – under the very same treaty – to the point that there are cries for further UN sanctions against Iran?

The answer is to be found in Mr Miliband’s article: we don’t trust Iran and it is not our friend. Unfortunately, if international law is to be taken seriously, it must be blind.

Yousaf Mahmood Butt,
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics,
Cambridge, MA 02138, US

the looters' perspective

more people are admitting to probability of peak oil, and peak oil was the most pressing motive for israeli americans and israel to stage 9/11… and this motive, peak oil, is connected to global warming, which is in itself, another motive.

it works like this: global oil production has probably peaked, but even so, there’s enough fossil fuel left to cause another 100 parts per million increase in co2 levels.

since neocons supposedly believe they can run the world, and dont believe in cooperation, they are pushing this PNAC project to grab control of the remaining oil, at which point they’ll be able to ration fuel to emerging economies like china and india, who are burning ever greater amounts of fossil fuels…

controlling access to oil is the neocons’ last chance to control global warming and subsequent sea level rise… a long shot, which explains why israel has given up gaza and continues expanding into the high ground in the west bank.

the basic motivating fact of 9/11 is this: israel must be secured ---from hostile neighbors and sea level rise--- before its american armies run out of gas.

from seeking alpha: PEAK OIL: MYTH OR REALITY?
.

once you’ve abandoned your morals, anything is possible, including 9/11… and mr dror is saying all jews must give up their morals in defense of israel: When Survival of the Jewish People Is at Stake, There’s No Place for Morals

if all jews abandon their morals to support israel, which was founded in lies, terror and injustice, and zionist lies, terror and injustice continue to this day, is that gonna have a detrimental effect on all jews?

...or are jews supposedly so threatened that they will willingly give up their morals to defend israel, and willingly ignore the fact that, if jews are threatened (...a big "if"), that threat comes from their support of israel's immorality?

are the jewish people too stupid to see how badly they're being used?

.

meanwhile, iran is a critical square on the global energy chessboard... iran must be dragged, kicking and screaming if necessary, into the neocon fold if the neocons are to achieve their global hegemony.

.

BUT, it’s still likely that a large faction of supposed zionist neocons are simply using israel’s exemption from criticism to enhance their opportunities to loot.

the basic tactic being: they wrap themselves in the israeli flag for protection as they loot the american economy.

the project makes sense from a sociopath’s perspective: america and israel are doomed anyhow —because of peak oil— so why not grab enough loot to hide out until the peak oil dust settles?

and once you’ve got enough loot, who needs israel, the radicals’ refuge of last resort? …you can buy refuge anywhere if you got the cash.

.
and so, from the looters point of view, the problems with iran are nothing but cover for the ongoing looting.

Bomb Iran, Now!

I commend Foreign Policy for boasting three authors, who had questioned Obama's insanity on Iran, and have made proposal comments on how to do more. Laura Rozen, David Rothkopf, and Daniel Drezner. History will remember, that you stood on the side of right, and used your brains, while others waffled.

I think it's patently clear that Obama has failed on Iran. He apologised for 1953, the next president will have to apologize for 2009! This time around, we are complicit in a new blood bath.

To support his inane position, the media has been allowed to ignore, and refuse, and confuse the cause of Freedom in Iran, by

>1) Claiming there was no difference between Moussaiv and Ahmedi-nejad.
2) That the election was disputed
3) That our intervention, would only undermine the chances of success.

I've addressed the first in my comments on foreign policy. Now I'll address the second two ,briefly, with a few quotes. I crossposted this comment in a few other authors blogs here, and I apologize if this is inappropriate, and understand any deletion (at least keep one up, please).

About the election. In What We Can Do In Iran by Bernard-Henri Levy summarizes what is known so far.

this election had, in every way, only the appearance of democracy

This is a fact eloquently presented by Hitchens in his latest column, and seconded by traditional non-interventionists such as Juan Cole on his Informed Comment website, and even by Justin Raimondo at Antiwar.com. It's a fact. Shame on Obama and the media, for suppressing it. Sarkozy acknowledged it last Monday.

More from Levy:

The other fact, however, is the desire for change on the part of a substantive fraction--and perhaps even majority--of Iranian society.

Democracies must take initiative.

Finally, the third certainty is that as a result, the initiative more than ever must be taken by democracies.

Democratic obligations

Let's summarize. From these three certainties, considered together, arises a clear obligation: aiding and strengthening, with all our might, the Iranian civil society in revolt. We have done it in the past with the USSR. We eventually understood, after decades of cowardice, that totalitarianism, in its eventual state of putrefaction, was only strong from our weakness.

Not only do democracies have obligations to help the People of Iran, but here are just some of the basic tools at their disposal:

Dan Senor of the CFR, suggests in the Wall Street Journal

First, Mr. Obama should contact Mr. Mousavi to signal his interest in the situation and Mr. Mousavi's security. Our own experience with dissidents around the world is that proof of concern by the U.S. government is helpful and desirable.

Mr. Obama should deliver another taped message to the Iranian people. Only this time he should acknowledge the fundamental reality that the regime lacks the consent of its people to govern, which therefore necessitates a channel to the "other Iran." He should make it clear that dissidents and their expatriate emissaries should tell us what they most need and want from the U.S. This could consist of financial resources, congresses of reformers, workshops or diplomatic gatherings. The key is to let the reformers call the shots and indicate how much and what U.S. assistance they want. Simply knowing we care, that we are willing to deploy resources and are watching their backs -- to the extent we can -- often helps reformers.

As with Ukraine and the Soviet Union before, Mr. Obama could at least make it clear that the U.S. will separate the issues of engagement and legitimacy.

Engagement without an effort to talk to the "other Iran" would not only be a travesty but tactically foolish as well.

Third, the president should direct U.S. ambassadors in Europe and the Gulf to meet with local Iranian anti-regime expatriates. From London to Dubai there are large Iranian communities throughout Europe and the Persian Gulf. The symbolism of this would be powerful, but this should be more than just a photo-op. Expatriates tend to know far more about their countries than even our intelligence experts -- and they could help guide efforts to aid reform.

Fourth, additional funding should be provided immediately for Radio Farda, an effective Persian-language radio, Internet and satellite property of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Farda helps Iranians get the information and analytical context that is often denied to them by their own government.

Fifth, the administration should take steps to give Iranian reformers and dissidents a level playing field with the regime in the battle of ideas. Just as providing photocopiers and fax machines helped Solidarity dissidents in communist Poland in the 1980s, today's reformers need access to the Web and other means of communication. Grants should be given to private groups to develop and field firewall-busting technology.

Now for the bridge from virtual to real-

Money should be appropriated for an NGO-run "open window" platform that enables a wide variety of indigenous voices to be carried on radio, blogs, video clips and other media. This can take the form of satellite and terrestrial broadcasting and other information tools to provide Iranians with anonymous communications and access to Internet, television and radio content that their government attempts to deny them. The president should also call a White House meeting of the CEOs of Facebook, Twitter, Google and other video-sharing and social-networking companies. Entrepreneurially minded high-tech companies can manage this project better than the government. Many of these CEOs are strong supporters of Mr. Obama; they should be brought on board to help make his foreign policy succeed. In the meantime, the president should order the military to make some of its EC-130 "Commando Solo" aircraft, which serve as flying television and radio stations, available to enable reformers and protest leaders to speak directly to the Iranian people.

On FP's own blogs,
none other than David Rothkopf stated

We need a forceful message that countries that violate the basic rights of their citizens should expect to pay a price for such behavior in the international community.

They could have said… ideally in chorus with our allies… that the international community was disturbed by apparent irregularities, that any recount or investigation should be made by objective observers, that the suppression of peaceful protests would be viewed with great concern, that Iran would jeopardize its talks with the international community if it undertook violence or condoned voter fraud, that nuclear weapons agreements depend on trust and that countries that seek such trust must act accordingly, that while we seek to maintain engagement, there are limits to what we will tolerate and that we reserve all our options to advance our interests. They could have convened a meeting among like-minded countries to discuss options, sent an envoy, formally postponed further discussions of the nuclear issue until this situation was clarified. They could have raised a doubt in the minds of the leaders in Tehran about how we would react in the face of a crackdown, that there might be consequences.

America's allies can also play a more direct role, Caroline Glick of the Jerusalem Post reports that Israel

has significant capacity to help the demonstrators. It could use its communication satellites to break through the communications blackout the regime has attempted to enforce. Its Internet capabilities can be offered to the protesters to reopen closed networks. Israel could temporarily expand its radio broadcasts into the country and allow its airwaves to be used to broadcast events on the ground in real time so that protesters won't have to rely on word of mouth to know what is happening or where things are leading.

Israel can also further support Moussvai by taking on the Ahmedi-nejad regime directly. As she notes, if the Pasderans are

preoccupied with domestic dissent, they will have less time to devote to Hamas and Hizbullah. If they are busy quelling armed insurrections by Kurds or Azeris or Baluchis, they will have less time to devote to negotiating the purchase of the S-300 anti-aircraft system with Russia, or keeping tabs on their nuclear scientists. Strategically, Israel stands only to gain - either marginally or massively - from the ayatollahs' discomfort.

Note the obvious benefit to Israel:

Were Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to publicly announce Israel's support for the protesters, Israel would stand to gain politically in a number of ways. First and foremost, it would be doing the right thing morally and so would earn the respect of millions of people throughout the world who are dismayed at their own governments' silence in the face of the brave Iranian protesters risking their lives for freedom.

And yes - its 100% MORAL.

Although I generally refrain from commenting using other's quotes in place of my text, I sincerely hope these quotes illuminate some of those who just can't get their heads around "Well How can We do Anything" gibberish and crap.

Personally, I say we send in special units to assassinate senior Iranian leadership, and foment direct revolts and revolution. It's now or never. If the regime wins, it will be more motivated than evere, to get nukes and kick our ass. Russia also needs to pay a penalty, for lending a hand to the bloody thugs. Caspian or no caspian.

anything's 100% moral...

...once you've abandoned your morals.

Why?

Why bomb Iran? -- it is not a threat to the US, according to the National Defense University study:

http://www.ndu.edu/inss/mcnair/mcnair69/McNairPDF.pdf

Our support of Israel -- a rogue nation which is not a NPT signatory with nuclear weapons and is state sponsor of terrorism against civilians -- is a threat to the US and is immoral.

Withdraw all funding for Israel paid by US taxpayers (>$5BILLION per year is taken from your pocket and sent to this illicit de-facto apartheid state).

Let it fend for its stupid arrogant racist self, and THEN it will grow up.

Zionist and In crazy love with Mousavi

Dumbass, do you realize that Mousavi also does not recognize the existence of Israel?

He is not a "dissident" -- he is an insider -- a former PM of Iran.

Before you fall all giddy stupid in love with him, I suggest you view his interview on Al Jazeera English.

I actually do like him and also think Israel is an interesting historical/colonial anomaly that needs to be corrected. But I'm not a dumb zionist like you.

What’s Really Dead? “Realism” on Iran (Contentions Weblog)

From Commentary Magazine's "Contentions" Weblog
June 24, 2009

What’s Really Dead? “Realism” on Iran

By Jonathan Tobin

Only two days ago a wide range of pundits were praising President Obama for his refusal to take a strong stand on the situation in Iran.

At the Daily Beast, veteran foreign policy “realist” Leslie Gelb complimented the president for his refusal to embrace the street protests or to express outrage over the situation. Gelb thought Obama was wise to ignore the neocons and “leave Iran to the Iranians,” lest a presidential statement tarnish the demonstrators as tools of America.

On the same day on the same site, veteran leftie Eric Alterman took an interestingly similar stance, mocking neoconservatives such as Charles Krauthammer’s and Robert Kagan’s criticism of the president for, as Alterman put it, “not force-feeding Iran their democracy.” For Alterman, the whole idea of the United States taking a strong stand on the bloodshed in the streets of Tehran was just a wacky neocon theory, deeply reminiscent of the prelude to the war in Iraq, which he then rehearsed at length. Conveniently, Alterman omits the ultimate outcome of the war, which to date has produced a flawed and shaky but still coherent democracy that right now may look pretty good to those living under the thumb of the ayatollahs.

Indeed, Alterman thought the whole idea of Americans expecting their president to articulate a moral stance on a crucial foreign-affairs issue to be so laughable that he predicted that the dust-up over Obama’s failures on Iran means that neoconservatism will soon be as dead as Marxism. And considering that Alterman has spent a good deal of his career flaking for the legacy of the late Stalinist spy I.F. Stone, he may be presumed to be an expert on the subject of the death of Marxism.

These were just a couple of the pundits who blasted whomever who had the temerity to ask their president to start behaving like a leader. In the view of many realists, leftists and a few renegade Republicans who defy classification (such as former congressman and current MSNBC gabber Joe Scarborough who may fancy himself as a future leader of the GOP), Obama was right to stay mum.

But, lo and behold, after ten days of milquetoast releases on Iran, the president decided to significantly raise the temperature on the subject yesterday by making exactly the kind of strong statement his critics had been begging for all week. And what was the reaction from all those who had been saying that his refusal to do so was an indicator of his cool wisdom? Nothing much.

The Washington Post editorial page claimed that the president was not yielding to those who had blasted his “softness” even though that is exactly what he had just done. Instead, the Post pretended that Obama was finding his own middle way to avoid repeating what they think is the mistake of the Bush administration in trying to isolate Iran (though, in fact, Bush’s team significantly backed away from a tough Iran policy in his last year in office). Other neocon bashers seem either silent or in a similar state of denial about Obama’s flip. Like the White House spinners, they are merely pretending nothing has happened.

What does all this prove? That after taking a beating on the issue, Obama accepted that the so-called “realist” policy of engaging Iran is simply unacceptable to an American people that seem curiously susceptible to ideas like support for democracy and freedom abroad, even though such neoconservative notions were supposedly dead. Obama may still hope to one day engage Ahmadinejad rather than deal with the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons and terrorism at home and abroad, but he can’t afford to be branded an appeaser or enabler of that regime even if that’s what his realist and left-wing fans want.

Obama is still a popular president and, given his keen political instincts, may remain so despite his obvious failings. But the events of the last two weeks have shown that the only ideological corpse on display is the realist foreign policy on Iran that he had embraced to applause from the same pundits who are mum about his switcheroo.

--Posted - 06.24.2009 - 1:24 PM

Copyright © 1997-2009 Commentary Magazine
All Rights Reserved

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/tobin/71202

What’s Really Dead? “Realism” on Iran (Contentions Weblog)

From Commentary Magazine's "Contentions" Weblog
June 24, 2009

What’s Really Dead? “Realism” on Iran

By Jonathan Tobin

Only two days ago a wide range of pundits were praising President Obama for his refusal to take a strong stand on the situation in Iran.

At the Daily Beast, veteran foreign policy “realist” Leslie Gelb complimented the president for his refusal to embrace the street protests or to express outrage over the situation. Gelb thought Obama was wise to ignore the neocons and “leave Iran to the Iranians,” lest a presidential statement tarnish the demonstrators as tools of America.

On the same day on the same site, veteran leftie Eric Alterman took an interestingly similar stance, mocking neoconservatives such as Charles Krauthammer’s and Robert Kagan’s criticism of the president for, as Alterman put it, “not force-feeding Iran their democracy.” For Alterman, the whole idea of the United States taking a strong stand on the bloodshed in the streets of Tehran was just a wacky neocon theory, deeply reminiscent of the prelude to the war in Iraq, which he then rehearsed at length. Conveniently, Alterman omits the ultimate outcome of the war, which to date has produced a flawed and shaky but still coherent democracy that right now may look pretty good to those living under the thumb of the ayatollahs.

Indeed, Alterman thought the whole idea of Americans expecting their president to articulate a moral stance on a crucial foreign-affairs issue to be so laughable that he predicted that the dust-up over Obama’s failures on Iran means that neoconservatism will soon be as dead as Marxism. And considering that Alterman has spent a good deal of his career flaking for the legacy of the late Stalinist spy I.F. Stone, he may be presumed to be an expert on the subject of the death of Marxism.

These were just a couple of the pundits who blasted whomever who had the temerity to ask their president to start behaving like a leader. In the view of many realists, leftists and a few renegade Republicans who defy classification (such as former congressman and current MSNBC gabber Joe Scarborough who may fancy himself as a future leader of the GOP), Obama was right to stay mum.

But, lo and behold, after ten days of milquetoast releases on Iran, the president decided to significantly raise the temperature on the subject yesterday by making exactly the kind of strong statement his critics had been begging for all week. And what was the reaction from all those who had been saying that his refusal to do so was an indicator of his cool wisdom? Nothing much.

The Washington Post editorial page claimed that the president was not yielding to those who had blasted his “softness” even though that is exactly what he had just done. Instead, the Post pretended that Obama was finding his own middle way to avoid repeating what they think is the mistake of the Bush administration in trying to isolate Iran (though, in fact, Bush’s team significantly backed away from a tough Iran policy in his last year in office). Other neocon bashers seem either silent or in a similar state of denial about Obama’s flip. Like the White House spinners, they are merely pretending nothing has happened.

What does all this prove? That after taking a beating on the issue, Obama accepted that the so-called “realist” policy of engaging Iran is simply unacceptable to an American people that seem curiously susceptible to ideas like support for democracy and freedom abroad, even though such neoconservative notions were supposedly dead. Obama may still hope to one day engage Ahmadinejad rather than deal with the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons and terrorism at home and abroad, but he can’t afford to be branded an appeaser or enabler of that regime even if that’s what his realist and left-wing fans want.

Obama is still a popular president and, given his keen political instincts, may remain so despite his obvious failings. But the events of the last two weeks have shown that the only ideological corpse on display is the realist foreign policy on Iran that he had embraced to applause from the same pundits who are mum about his switcheroo.

--Posted - 06.24.2009 - 1:24 PM

Copyright © 1997-2009 Commentary Magazine
All Rights Reserved

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/tobin/71202

Wake up zionist freaks

Obama is right on in his approach to Iran.

Do you realize that Mousavi also does not recognize the existence of Israel?

He is not a "dissident" -- he is an insider -- a former PM of Iran.

Before all you Zionist "bomb Iran" fanatics fall all giddy stupid in love with him, I suggest you view his interview on Al Jazeera English.

it's getting pretty obvious...

...that israel needs war with iran to close hormuz and stimulate pipeline construction to israel.

how else is israel gonna make a living once peak oil sets in in earnest?

How to earn money in Israel

They could also sell the body organs of the thousands of muslim civilians they kill.

Oh, wait, -- scratch that -- they don't even consider Arabs to be human...

They’ve Chosen Their Path (Contentions Weblog)

From Commentary Magazine's "Contentions" Weblog
June 24, 2009

They’ve Chosen Their Path

By Abe Greenwald

At Tuesday’s press conference, Barack Obama finally condemned the Iranian regime for brutality that “appalled and outraged.” But as forceful as some of Obama’s language was, he left the door open for engagement with a repentant mullahcracy. He was asked: “[I]s there any red line that your administration won’t cross where that offer [to talk to Iran’s leaders] will be shut off?” He responded in part:

Well, obviously what’s happened in Iran is profound, and we’re still waiting to see how it plays itself out. . . We have provided a path whereby Iran can reach out to the international community, engage, and become a part of international norms. . . It is up to them to make a decision as to whether they choose that path.

Wait no more, Mr. President. The Los Angeles Times reports that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced today, “[H]e would neither reconsider vote results nor bow to public pressure over the disputed reelection of his ally President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as state-controlled broadcasting intensified a media blitz against the West.” This comes in concert with stepped up brutality against protesters and raids on opposition “headquarters.” So much for that path to international norms.

It is no doubt a great surprise to the Obama administration that a fascist theocracy insists on acting like a fascist theocracy. Amazingly, the president and the State Department will have to adjust to the stubbornness of reality. This means treating the mullahs like enemy fanatics — not slighted innocents or kids hankering for hot dogs.

This also means accepting the necessity of George W. Bush’s general posture on Iran. There are those who wish Bush had followed through on his early proclamations and halted Iran’s nuclear program with air strikes before leaving office. Having stopped short of that, the last president did largely understand the inutility of diplomacy with the mullahs. Prostration and apology were out of the question — as they are soon to be for Obama.

Like the North Koreans before them, the Iranians have used the Obama approach as an opportunity for aggression. They took his sideline indifference as an all-clear. Just as Obama has reverted to early Bush policy on Pyongyang, so he will do in regard to Tehran. He will never call it that, of course; he’ll call it consistency.

But the only consistency on display has been embodied by the world’s bad actors. In response to Obama’s outstretched hand, toy reset button, and proclivity for mutual respect, rogue regimes have held fast to the policies and programs that have sustained them since their inceptions. In some sense that is the “international norm,” and it remains America’s job to upset it — not “witness” it. The red line was drawn when Khamenei and Ahmadinejad first cracked down on democratic protesters 12 days ago. President Obama just didn’t know it yet. He’s figuring it out now.

-- Posted - 06.24.2009 - 2:15 PM

Copyright © 1997-2009 Commentary Magazine
All Rights Reserved

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/greenwald/71232

Zionist and in Love with Mousavi? Think again.....

Obama is right on in his approach to Iran. A bit harsh perhaps -- he should ignore it altogether.

Do you realize that Mousavi also does not recognize the existence of Israel?

He is not a "dissident" -- he is an insider -- a former PM of Iran.

Before all you Zionist "bomb Iran" fanatics fall all giddy stupid in love with him, I suggest you view his interview on Al Jazeera English.

Dick Lugar says Obama is Right on!

Republican Dick Lugar agrees totally w/ Obama in not getting too involved in Iran now, and engaging with it later.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/jun/16/lugar-american-arms-length-stance-on-iran-proper/

Stolen elections

As a world comes to grips once again through media memories being refreshed over the Iran activities over the past two weeks, we remember the tarnished US involvement in past revolutions and shudder. Did those things really happen. It is all well-documented and yes, it did happen.
Was the US involved again?. Knowing the US predilection for foreign affair dalliances, a disgraceful record, one can't help thinking that the new Washington regime may have had a flutter but now, as we have seen already, we will be subject to the condemnation of the mullahs and Iranian government for having a vote that wasn't perfect. Hypocrisy at its best.
How any American can claim that Iran has just been through a stolen election without reflecting on the 'stolen' elections that have occurred over the past eight years in the US, 'the home of democracy'. Phooey!
Certainly the violence on US street was substantially less, simply because until that time, one had a high degree of confidence in the Supreme Court and justice and fair play and honesty. All these have taken a battering over recent times and will continue to do so as all the qualities enshrined in the Constitution are eroded, bit by bit. But who cares? No one seems to, particularly the elected non-entities on the hill.
So let's be careful in giving democratic advice to Iran. The US record is somewhat tarnished.
The Iran result must have pleased Netanyahu and his cabal of warmongers hungry for a conflict in which they would dearly love to drag in the US as a willing partner. However, one would have to hope that the slow moving elephant that is US Foreign Policy has other plans. One day, allowing for the devious and disloyal Israeli lobbies running out of money to influence the Senators and elected representatives, there will be a vote on the need to enforce all the UN resolutions that over the years have been ignored by the out-of-control monster child of US weak government, Israel.
When that happens and the world can see that the US has recovered from giving its soul to the Jews by way of aid, military muscle, unending support, ignoring murderous actions like the USS Liberty, the US may get some respect back from all small countries who used to think that the US way of life was enviable. That was a long time ago.
Button the lip on democratic elections, Mr. President. Let he who is free from sin, throw the first stone.

Iran's Struggle, and Ours: How a Movement Could Transform the Re

The Washington Post
June 24, 2009

Iran's Struggle, and Ours

How a Movement Could Transform the Region

By Robert D. Kaplan

The now-joined struggle for Iranian hearts and minds is where the universal battle of ideas -- democracy vs. tyranny -- meets the dictates of Middle Eastern geography. Whereas Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are puzzle pieces carved out of featureless desert, with no venerable traditions of statehood, the roots of a great Persian power occupying the Iranian plateau date to the Achaemenid, Parthian and Sassanid empires. With nearly 70 million people occupying the tableland between the oil-rich Caspian Sea and the oil-rich Persian Gulf, Iran is the Muslim world's universal joint.

Iranian power, both soft and hard, is felt from the Mediterranean to the Indus. Indeed, Iran's influence in southern Lebanon and Gaza is part of a historical tradition of empire and Shiite rule. By puncturing the legitimacy of the clerical authority, the demonstrations in Tehran and other cities have the capacity to herald a new era in Middle Eastern and Central Asian politics.

Iran's governing institutions, however illiberal their current intent, are structurally sounder than most in the Arab world. When the shah was toppled, anarchy did not ensue: Within weeks, a Shiite bureaucratic apparatus filled the void. That sophisticated network reflected not just religion but also Iranian high culture.

The Iran of the ayatollahs was never a one-dimensional tyranny such as Saddam Hussein's Iraq; it is a complex system with an elected parliament and chief executive. Likewise, Iran's democracy movement is strikingly Western in its organizational discipline and its urbane use of technology. In terms of development, Iran is much closer to Turkey than to Syria or Iraq. While the latter two live with the possibility of implosion, Iran has an internal coherence that allows it to bear down hard on its neighbors. In the future, a democratic Iran could be, in a benevolent sense, as influential in Baghdad as the murder squads of a theocratic Iran have been in a malignant sense.

Iran is so central to the fate of the Middle East that even a partial shift in regime behavior -- an added degree of nuance in its approach to Iraq, Lebanon, Israel or the United States -- could dramatically affect the region. Just as a radical Iranian leader can energize the "Arab street," an Iranian reformer can energize the emerging but curiously opaque Arab bourgeoisie. This is why the depiction of presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi as but another radical, albeit with a kinder, gentler exterior than President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, completely misses the point.

As in the former Soviet Union, change in Iran can come only from the inside; only an insider, be it a Mousavi or a Mikhail Gorbachev, has the necessary bona fides to allow daylight into the system, exposing its flaws. Only a staunch supporter of the Islamic Republic such as Mousavi would have been trusted to campaign at all, even as he is now leading a democratic movement that has already undermined the Brezhnevite clerical regime. It is unfinished business of the Cold War that we have been witnessing the past few days. The Iranian struggle for democracy is now as central to our foreign policy as that for democracy in Eastern Europe in the 1980s.

It is crucial that we reflect on an original goal of regime change in Iraq. Anyone who supported the war must have known that toppling Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Arab -- whether it resulted in stable democracy, benign dictatorship or sheer chaos -- would strengthen the Shiite hand in the region. This was not seen as necessarily bad. The Sept. 11 terrorists had emanated from the rebellious sub-states of the sclerotic Sunni dictatorships of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, whose arrogance and aversion to reform had to be allayed by readjusting the regional balance of power in favor of Shiite Iran. It was hoped that Iran would undergo its own upheaval were Iraq to change. Had the occupation of Iraq been carried out in a more competent manner, this scenario might have unfolded faster and more transparently. Nevertheless, it is happening. And not only is Iran in the throes of democratic upheaval, but Egypt and Saudi Arabia have both been quietly reforming apace.

In recent years, an anti-Iranian alliance of sorts has emerged of Israel and those tired Sunni Arab dictatorships. Throughout Iranian history, dating to Cyrus the Great, Jews and Persians have often had an alliance against the mass of Arabs and other peoples that border Iran to the west and south. In brief visits to Iran, I have sensed a greater aversion to Saudi Arabia, for instance, than to Israel. A virulent hatred of Jews may turn out to have been an attribute of the clerical regime, which won't outlive it, at least not to the same extent. The late Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi did, in fact, maintain an implicit alliance with Israel, and future Iranian leaders must look at the world from the same geographical position as he did, without the baggage of Third World radicalism with which the mullahs had been indoctrinated early in the Khomeini period.

But a future behind-the-scenes battle between Sunni Arabs and Shiite Iranians for a silent strategic contract with Israel can be effected only if the United States exerts strong pressure on Israel to cede West Bank territory. Never has there been a better time to push for an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement, even if it requires the collapse of today's Israeli coalition in the process.

The Middle East has entered a period of deep flux, to be further amplified by elections in Iraq later this year and the seating of a pro-Western government in Lebanon. Because of its central geographic and demographic position astride the energy-rich Middle East -- not to mention the attractive force of Persian culture seeping far into Central Asia -- Iran, ironically, has a better chance to dominate the region under dynamic democratic rule than it has ever had under its benighted clerisy. And that could be very good for the United States.

Robert D. Kaplan is a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a national correspondent for The Atlantic.

© Copyright 1996-2009 The Washington Post Company

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/23/AR2009062303114.html

Exactly

A powerful more democratic Iran would be a great thing for the middle east.

The OpEd says: "But a future

The OpEd says: "But a future behind-the-scenes battle between Sunni Arabs and Shiite Iranians for a silent strategic contract with Israel can be effected only if the United States exerts strong pressure on Israel to cede West Bank territory. Never has there been a better time to push for an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement, even if it requires the collapse of today's Israeli coalition in the process."

Right-on.

A strong Iran and a strong Palestine (with its own army, navy and air force) and the break-up of zionist fanaticism is just what is needed.

Iran's Democratic Upsurge

Iran's Democratic Upsurge

June 25, 2009
By Hamid Dabashi

The writer is the Hagop Kevorkian Professor of Iranian Studies and Comparative Literature at Columbia University in New York.

http://www.zcommunications.org/znet/viewArticle/21790

"A messianic apocalyptic cult..."

-- Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Iran and Iranians

By design or serendipity, the Israeli claim to be "the only democracy in the Middle East " has suddenly been globally exposed for the ludicrous joke that it is.

The June 2009 parliamentary elections in Lebanon will go down in history as a major advance for the cause of democracy in that small but vital country. The victory of the March 14 coalition of Saad Al-Hariri, by which they now hold 71 seats in the 128- member parliament, has left the remaining 58 seats to the Hizbullah-led coalition. Israel and its American allies have been quick to paint this result as a victory for "pro-Western" elements and thus a defeat for Hizbullah. This is not the case. Victory of the March 14 coalition is the victory of democracy in Lebanon -- a victory Hizbullah shared.

Because Israel is a racist apartheid state, it cannot see the world except through its own tribal lens. The victory of the March 14 coalition in Lebanon is the victory of the electoral process, which now solidly includes Hizbullah and its parliamentary allies. Hizbullah is now not only part of Lebanon 's civil society, but also its political apparatus and institutionalised democratic process, and Hizbullah achieved this without abandoning its status as a national liberation army that will defend its homeland against any and every Israeli barbarity that may come its way.

As the Arab and Muslim worlds celebrate this democratic victory, it is imperative to see it as having nothing to do with Obama's presidency, or his speech in Cairo , lecturing Muslims in the region on democracy while his army is illegally occupying Iraq and slaughtering Afghans.

On the heels of the Lebanese elections, the cause and the march of democracy took an even bolder leap in Iran , and that leap is not because of US promotion of democracy, but in fact is despite and against it. At time of writing, millions of Iranians inside and out of their homeland are angry and heartbroken with the official results. Some go so far as considering what happened a coup d'état. There are perfectly legitimate reasons to question the validity of the official results that have declared Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the clear winner. The only point of which Iranians can be sure and proud is the extraordinary manifestation of their collective will to participate in their politics. This unprecedented participation neither lends legitimacy to the illegitimate apparatus of the Islamic Republic and its manifestly undemocratic organs nor should be abused by bankrupt oppositional forces outside Iran to denounce and denigrate a glorious page in modern Iranian history.

Every four years, during presidential elections followed by parliamentary elections, the paradox of the democratic theocracy of the Islamic Republic of Iran fascinates and baffles the world. During this presidential campaign, Iranians boisterously joined rallies and then stood in long queues to vote under the extended shadow of Israeli warlords threatening a military strike. The propaganda machinery at the disposal of Israel will have the world believe that a populist demagogue like Ahmadinejad is "the dictator" of Iran , as one of their spokesmen in New York , Columbia University President Lee Bollinger, once put it. And thus on the model of an Oriental despot he represents a backward people whose fate deserves to be determined by others (the US / Israel , of course). As the prominent Israeli scholar of Iran , Haggai Ram, one of a handful of courageous Israeli dissidents, has aptly demonstrated in his Iranophobia, Israel 's fixation with Iran has now reached pathological proportions and is a case study of self-delusional hysteria feeding on itself.

The reality of the Iranian polity, as the world has once again been witness to, is vastly different to the picture US/Israel propaganda is feeding the world. A vibrant and restless society is defying all mandated limitations on its will and demanding and exacting its democratic rights. The undemocratic institutions of the Islamic Republic -- beginning with the idea of velayat-e faqih, or rule of the cleric, down to the unelected body of the Guardian Council -- are not obstacles to democracy in Iran but invitations to democratic assault. What the Iranian electorate, young and old, men and women, seem to be doing is far more important than a mere head on collision with ageing and arcane institutions. They are pushing the limits of their democratic exercises in unfathomable and unstoppable directions. The Internet has connected Iran 's youth to the global context, and they have in turn become the catalyst of discursive and institutional changes beyond the control of the clerical clique in Qom and Tehran .

This is more than anything a battle between generations. Iranian society is changing and fast. The ageing custodians of the Islamic Republic wish to limit what can be said or expected. But the globally geared and wired youth, more than 60 per cent of the electorate, is now radically altering the contours of those limits. They are not merely defying them, but are sublimating them. The red line in Iran is thinning by the hour, for facing it are skilful players exercising their political muscles. It was quite evident in the course of the US presidential election of 2008 that an Internet-savvy Obama outmanoeuvred McCain's arcane operation. The same is true of Mir-Hussein Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi's campaigns, the two reformist candidates, on the one side, and Ahmadinejad's on the other, with Mohsen Rezai in-between. The social basis of Mousavi's platform is the urban middle class, the youth, and women. The economic basis of Ahmadinejad's demagoguery is the rural and urban poor. They are both skilful campaigners in reaching out to their respective constituencies.

The rising demographic tide is against the old revolutionaries. Iranian children born after the revolution in the late 1970s have no active memory of its hopes and furies and could not care less about those who do. Every four years since the end of Iran-Iraq war in 1988, and the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, the Iranian electorate has been upping the ante. They voted for Rafsanjani in 1989 and for eight years he rebuilt the economic infrastructure of the country after the war, creating a class of nouveau riche. Then in 1997 they voted for Mohamed Khatami who gave them a modicum of civil society and opened the vista of wide-ranging social reform, and yet did nothing -- or very little -- to alleviate the poor masses Rafsanjani had left behind. In 2005, those disenfranchised by Rafsanjani's economic project and indifferent to Khatami's social and cultural agenda pushed power into the hands of Ahmadinejad. And now, in 2009, a major segment of disaffected voters, in their millions, are investing trust in Mousavi, a former prime minister with impeccable revolutionary credentials, a war hero, and a socialist in his economic projects.

Again, the scene is overwhelmed by the massive participation of the youth, students, and above all women, on both sides of the political divide. This new generation is Internet-aware, versatile with Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter. It is globally wired. The presence of Zahra Rahnavard, Mousavi's distinguished wife, is an added aspect of this campaign. A prominent public intellectual and a former university chancellor, a poet, painter and sculptor, and a staunch advocate of women's rights, Rahnavard is dubbed by some foreign journalists as the Michelle Obama of Iran . "No," retorted one of her Iranian admirers in response, "Michelle Obama could have aspired to become the Zahra Rahnavard of the United States ."

This election has also been extraordinary because of live televised debates that exposed skeletons collected for 30 years in the closets of the ageing elders of the republic. Ahmadinejad, bastard son of the Islamic Revolution, is fast devouring, in his populist demagoguery, the idealism and aspirations of that revolution. Opposing Ahmadinejad are the architects of Iran 's creative imagination. More than ever Iranian artists and filmmakers have been active in this election. They have published open letters, produced video clips, and joined others in rallies. From Paris , Mohsen Makhmalbaf wrote an open letter supporting Mousavi and encouraging everyone to vote for him while dispatching his youngest daughter, Hana, to go to Iran to make a documentary about the elections. When Mousavi challenged the official results, Makhmalbaf became a conduit of his campaign with international news outlets, using his connections with foreign journalists.

Majid Majidi, another prominent Iranian filmmaker, directed Mousavi's campaign commercials. Other Iranian directors, actors, producers have similarly exerted their efforts. Student organisations, labour unions, professional associations and women's rights organisations -- all have been engaged, on the streets, on the Internet sites, writing fiery essays, shooting movies, and producing video clips. Rahnavard, a painter with a talent for colour symbolism, chose green for her husband's campaign (neither red for violence nor white for martyrdom, the other two colours in the Iranian flag). And when Khatami went to Isfahan to campaign for Mousavi, upwards of 100,000 people came together in the historic Meydan-e Naqsh-e Jahan to cheer him and support the reformist candidate. This is democracy from bellow; democracy not by virtue of institutions, but by collective and defiant insistence. Israeli warlords should think twice before aggressing the Iranians.

Disappointed by this democratic flourishing are not just Israeli and American Zionists that spent time and money portraying Iran as a diabolic dictatorship deserving to be bombed. Equally scandalised by this election are the colourful band of lipstick jihadi Hirsi Ali wanna-bes who are writing one erotic fantasy after another about Iranian "women", over-sexualising Iranian politics as they opt for "love and danger" during their "honeymoon in Tehran". The representation of Iranian women in the flea market of the US publishing industry began under President Bush with Azar Nafisi's Reading Lolita in Tehran and has now come to a new depth of depravity in Pardis Mahdavi's Passionate Uprisings: Iran's Sexual Revolution. Between a harem full of Lolitas and a bathhouse of nymphomaniacs is where Nafisi and Mahdavi have Iranian women, marching in despair awaiting liberation by US marines and Israeli bombers. What a contrast to the real work of women, as testified to in this election, and now on the street in defence of the collective will of the nation.

On two sides of Iran lie in waste Iraq and Afghanistan, liberated for democracy by George W Bush and now Barack Obama. In the middle, millions of Iranians who would have been maimed or murdered by a similar "liberation" peacefully poured into streets and jubilantly marched to polling stations to vote, in a grassroots, however limited and flawed, but still promising and beautiful, march towards democracy. And now that they think their votes have been stolen from them they are more than capable of demanding them back.

Whoever the final winner of Iran's election may be, fanatical Zionists in Israel and the US, power-mongering Mullahs in Tehran and Qom, comprador intellectuals and career opportunists from Washington DC to California, are its sorest losers. The winners are the indomitable Iranian people. We are witness, regardless of controversy, to a triumph of democratic pluralism, from Lebanon to Iran -- a nightmare for the Jewish state that wants the whole region remade in its delusional, racist, apartheid image where sects and factions fight each other to the dogged end. "A messianic apocalyptic cult," indeed, can only describe the country of the man who pronounced it.

Mr Prime Minister, thou dost protest too much.

The writer is the Hagop Kevorkian Professor of Iranian Studies and Comparative Literature at Columbia University in New York.

It's weird that a country can

It's weird that a country can still lay claim to having a military force that is a 'Praetorian guard.' (per the NYT article you linked) I guess the Romans really did spread their influence.

That's all I've got to say. It's not much, I know, but I also know that 90% of the info we're getting is propaganda and that I have very little idea of what's really going on in Iran.

Clint is right on the money,

Don't know who you are Clint, but I do like your comments.

My comments are always late getting in as I am on another continent but I would like to think that occasionally, when the comments on the good writings of Stephen Walt are not too long, not often I admit, that you read some of hastily written comments on the middle east and all that covers, including the Iran failed revolution.
That is what it was, but different to the average (if there is such a thing) revolution, this one is more about freedom as one would expect, but held back and therefore failed because it really is a revolution against religious dominance.
When the women of Iran throw off their headscarfs and are treated as equals to men, then and only then can such a revolution take place. You cannot demonstrate against both religious control and freedom at the same time particularly in a country where the leaders are religious mullahs.
The political leaders did not say stay 'off the streets, it is over'; it was the religious leaders who said that and while they control the country absolutely, other freedoms will be withheld from the Iranians.
They have to choose to downgrade Islam to become just a religion, not a controlling way of life.
In my opinion, a secular Iran could be one of the powerhouses of the world.

No evidence of election fraud in Iran

There is still no real evidence of election fraud in Iran. Every claim has been compiled and analyzed in detail at IranAffairs.com, and none stands up to scrutiny.

THINK: Was Mousavi, a former prime minister and very much regime insider, such a threat to the regime that they would have to resort to massive election fraud to keep him out of office? No.