A silent revolution in Japan?

Posted By Stephen M. Walt Tuesday, September 1, 2009 - 4:45 PM Share

People like me have been spilling a lot of ink (and blogspace) over events in out-of-the-way places like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, and the like, and I'm not going to apologize for it. But I sometimes think this illustrates the tendency for humans to focus on what is urgent or vivid instead of what's important. People dying and things getting blown up rivet our attention, but sometimes the calm workings of a democratic process might be of greater long-term significance.

Consider the recent Japanese election. I'm far from being an expert on Japanese politics, but I do know there are good reasons to think that genuine reform will be as difficult to enact there as it is here in the United States. (Among other things, entrenched bureaucrats in powerful ministries will be hard to weaken or dislodge.) Nonetheless, if the defeat of the LDP and the emergence of the more populist Democratic Party of Japan leads to the emergence of a genuine two-party system, makes Japanese political institutions more accountable, and generally opens up a set of sclerotic policies, the impact could be far-reaching.

After all, Japan is still the world's second largest economy. Its military spending ranks fifth in the world. It has a highly educated populations and many advanced industries and scientific establishments (including the potential to get nuclear weapons very quickly if it wished). It is the location of several key U.S. military bases, and is bound to Washington by a long-standing security treaty.

All this means that if Japanese economic and foreign policy were to change significantly, the effects would be quite far-reaching. I'm not saying they will, but I am planning to spend a bit more time keeping an eye on events there.

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BRETT

1:18 AM ET

September 2, 2009

Nonetheless, if the defeat of

Nonetheless, if the defeat of the LDP and the emergence of the more populist Democratic Party of Japan leads to the emergence of a genuine two-party system, makes Japanese political institutions more accountable, and generally opens up a set of sclerotic policies, the impact could be far-reaching.

Not necessarily for the US. We get on generally good terms with the LDP, whereas the DPJ is slightly more skeptical of the US-Japanese traditional relationship (although don't over-estimate this), and more inclined to oppose free-market proposals.

JJH722

4:37 PM ET

September 2, 2009

Two party system could be positive thing for Japan and US

I don't know if that opposition to "free market principles" will necessarily define all of their policy. Sure, they are very skeptical of Wall Street. But I think it might be a general discontent with the American consumer, who has stopped buying their exports and rendered them helpless. In this case, they will have to do belatedly what China is already trying to do (with much less technological development) by boosting their domestic economy. It is currently sheltered so as to provide full employment. I agree that the DPJ won't likely alter its foreign policy towards the US in any major way, but from what I've read it looks like they might stop shipping fuel to help in Afghanistan and publicize the long-secret nuclear agreement between the US and Japan, which contradicts against their public proclamations of peace. They talk about getting close to China, but the people in China are still offended by the Nanjing Massacre and the Yasukuni Shrine. As long as there are rightwing nationalists in Japan there, the wound still festers. On top of that add the border disputes and Japan's connections with those the PRC labels "separtists" and they have a long way to go for better ties. Still, Walt is probably right that the beginnings of a two-party system might cause some shocks. I always get a boost when I look at their debt to GDP ratio, which dwarfs our own. But it could also be a very positive thing for both Japan and the US--a more prosperous Japan couldn't really be a bad thing, could it?--we'll have to wait and see.

CYRANO

8:28 AM ET

September 6, 2009

It seems to me that the most

It seems to me that the most striking thing about the victory of the Democratic Party of Japan in the recent elections is how unclear and probably unlikely the prospects for serious change or reform in Japan are. The NYTimes a couple days ago was trying to say that there's a big shock going throughout the government about any changes in Japan's foreign policy and relations with the United States (damnit should've picked Nye as ambassador! haha) but the just bizzare range of ideology in the DPJ and the ambiguous nature of party policy declarations just keeps telling the same story of a country locked in a tense standoff with itself since the bubble burst in '90 (and who hasn't significantly readjusted their foreign relations or posture since Nixon blindsided Aso and forced them to follow our lead with the PRC). I wouldn't be shocked at all if the LDP is back in power, making vague promises, in 1-2 years.

It's actually depressing how all the predictions of Japan rearming and finally becoming a full great power keep never coming true (even though it might be good for world peace). If there's a lesson in U.S. forward deployment in the European Strategic Theater it's that said deployment takes away all leverage to force a defense buildup by the hometown which doesn't want to spend any more on its military than will nudge the U.S. to withdraw and gets locked in tight.