Is McChrystal dovish on Iran?

Posted By Stephen M. Walt Share

I've blogged a lot about Iran and Afghanistan over the past few months, but I've been remiss in not highlighting an important connection between the two issues. As Spencer Ackerman noted a few days ago, U.S. Afghan commander Stanley McChrystal offered this intriguing comment during his remarks at IISS headquarters in London last week:

Iran, of course, being, you know, in such proximity to Afghanistan and having significant influence inside Afghanistan, is a big player. They, in my view, they have a lot of very positive influence inside Afghanistan, some of it cultural, some of it financial, just things that any neighbor would have to try to build the stability. I think that if Iran takes a very mature look at a stable Afghanistan and support the government of Afghanistan, then we'll be -- we'll be in good shape. If they were to choose not to do that, and they were to choose to support insurgents, I think that would be a significant miscalculation.

I don't think this comment was an idle remark by McChrystal. What he's telling us is that Iran could be a positive influence in Afghanistan, and that it could also be a real hindrance to our efforts. And that means that an attack on Iran would make our situation in Afghanistan even worse than it is already, because Iran would have both the capacity and the incentive to retaliate.

There's no love lost between Iran and the Taliban, in part because the Taliban murdered ten Iranian diplomats in Mazari Sharif back in 1998. But Iran does retain some influence there -- as McChystal points out --and they would undoubtedly be looking for some way to pay us back if we were foolish enough to strike them. McChrystal is probably aware that advocates of a hardline approach to Tehran have a lot of clout in the Obama administration, and that plenty of other voices -- such as GOP Senator Lindsay Graham -- continue to wave the big stick even as negotiations get underway.

So McChrystal's seemingly innocuous remark might actually be something of a pre-emptive strike against those who keep suggesting that our only approach to Iran is preventive war. If so, then this might be another illustration of Richard Betts's argument in Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises, which showed that at least in the U.S. context, civilians are often a lot more bellicose than the uniformed military. In any case, I hope Obama is paying attention.

SHAUN CURRY/AFP/Getty Images

 
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CHRISDORNAN

5:04 PM ET

October 6, 2009

Iran *could* be a positive influence?

'Iran *could* be a positive influence'? Hasn't Iran *been* a stabilising influence? Didn't they broker the agreement in Bonn and pony up half a billion dollars for reconstruction.

If Iran wanted to make trouble it stands to reason that they could make a great deal of trouble: McChrystal has enough on his plate with Pakistan and knows which side his bread is buttered on.

What you say about the military makes perfect sense, if by military you mean the army and marines. They after all get to spend years trying to clean up the messes. I couldn't feel quite so sanguine about the air force.

http://senseorsensibility.com

 

DAVID IN DC

5:30 PM ET

October 6, 2009

What he's telling us is that

What he's telling us is that Iran could be a positive influence in Afghanistan, and that it could also be a real hindrance to our efforts. And that means that an attack on Iran would make our situation in Afghanistan even worse than it is already, because Iran would have both the capacity and the incentive to retaliate.

That is all well and good, but doesn't Iraq supply a model of Iran's behavior when we aren't attacking them?

Iran has been killing American boys in Iraq. This raises a number of questions:

1) Where is the outrage on this blog? If Israel did by accident one twentieth of the mischief that Iran does against us on purpose, Walt would be apopletic while posting about it twice daily.

2) Does this give any confidence at all that Iran is prepared to be a positive influence?

3) Finally, a thought experiment: With nuclear weapons, would Iran be more confident, or less confident, about continuing their covert war against our troops.

 

SMCI60652

6:39 PM ET

October 6, 2009

erroneous

1) Where is the outrage on this blog? If Israel did by accident one twentieth of the mischief that Iran does against us on purpose, Walt would be apopletic while posting about it twice daily.

Israel DOES do mischief ON PURPOSE against its enemies. The only difference is that when 'Iran' does mischief by providing arms and training to its Southern Iraqi Shiite co-religionists, their antics are exposed on NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX and all of their affiliates. When Israel bloodies its hands, usually the only recourse their victims have are blogs that a bunch of snooty armchair critics and bloggers read.

2) Does this give any confidence at all that Iran is prepared to be a positive influence?

Actually it's largely irrelevant. If anything it further proves the foundational principles of Realism. Powers will always act in self interest. In Afghanistan during the closing days of Khatami's governemnt there were open efforts to aid 'Our Boys' in ousting the much hated Taliban and returning the more amenable Northern Alliance back to power. Ethnic Hazara Shiites would be helped in doing this, and Herat would firmly be returned back into the Iranian sphere of influence. The fanatical, Saudi-funded Taliban regime was a constant threat to Shiite Iran.

3) Finally, a thought experiment: With nuclear weapons, would Iran be more confident, or less confident, about continuing their covert war against our troops.

Probably more confident. But that's the point! Nuclear deterence is the only viable way of preventing Cowboy Presidents and their War-mongering minions from meddling in your neighborhood. Again, Realism proved. If there's one human being you want to thank for Iran going nuc-U-lar, thank Dubya.

 

DAVID IN DC

8:50 PM ET

October 6, 2009

1) A non-response. 2) Powers

1) A non-response.

2) Powers will always act in self interest.

Then one would need to analyze what Iran will likely do in different scenarios. For instance, using your reasoning, Iran feels it is in their self-interest to murder our boys in Iraq, since they are doing it. What will change that calculus vis-a-vis Afghanistan? Not attacking them? Making it known we will not attack them? (I imagine their calculations currently incorportate a vanishingly small chance that we will attack them, if their read of Obama is the same as mine.) Since all we do is jaw-jaw, what does Iran really have to be afraid of regarding their nuclear drive and their actions against our troops.

3) Probably more confident. But that's the point!

That may be your point, your primary concern clearly being in handcuffing the US, rather than our success in Afghanistan, but it isn't the point of the blog post. It wouldn't surprise me terribly if you and Walt were on the same page with that, with all of the hinting he does at how it wouldn't be so bad if Iran got nukes. But if he does share your feeling, something he has explicitly disavowed I should add, I tend to suspect he will keep it to himself even as he continues to agitate that a nuclear Iran wouldn't be so bad.

 

SMCI60652

5:41 PM ET

October 6, 2009

Question

Are there any Pro-Israel Realists? Or any Realists in the 'Lobby?'

I just don't understand what the big stink is about Iran getting the bomb. All it'll do is drive their Arab neighbors to proliferate - resulting in a nullification of Iran's ability to project its conventional power.

At least that's what Trita Parsi's (another self-avowed realist)calculation is.

I think the problem is that if you accept that permise, the logical conclusion is that Israel also loses its ability to project conventional power onto any of its Arab neighbors.

At the end of the day, it's not about Radical Mullahs having launch codes, or to put it into more Academically correct terms - Arabs and Muslims not fitting into the 'rational actors' schema (as a Muslim, that is SO offensive).

The REAL bottom line is Israel not having the ability to project hard power and dictate terms on its neighbors.

The intelligent President would use Iran's proliferation to leverage as much conciliation from Israeli negotiators as possible on a final deal.

 

ALANGER86

9:01 PM ET

October 7, 2009

I'm "pro-Israel" and also

I'm "pro-Israel" and also gravitate towards realism. I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. If your comment was referring to Waltz's "more may be better" theory, I don't think that is necessarily a central tenet of realism. I'm also not worried about Iran actually using a bomb-- I am more worried about nuclear handoff to terrorist organizations and Iran using the bomb as leverage in order to intervene in Arab politics (Bahrain, for example). That, plus the conventional arms race and possible nuclear arms race that would follow. Iran gets the bomb, Egypt wants it, Syria wants it (and could get help from Iran), Saudi Arabia wants it, etc.

Also, no one is saying that Arabs and Muslims aren't "rational actors." That's a really bold generalization. Under Sagan's logic, it is clear that Iran wants the bomb for security and prestige purposes. Just how rational is Iran's leadership, however? The Revolutionary Guard sends cash, arms, help with training, etc. to countless terrorist organizations. What about nuclear technology? Definitely a possibility.

 

DAVE123

6:16 PM ET

October 6, 2009

I just don't understand what

I just don't understand what the big stink is about Iran getting the bomb

Iran could create Hezbollah II in Iraq killing even more American troops in Iraq and we could do nothing about it. If the US threatens to attack Iran in retaliation, Iran could threaten to nuke Israel or Europe. Hezbollah has worked out very well for them in Lebanon.

The intelligent President would use Iran's proliferation to leverage as much conciliation from Israeli negotiators as possible on a final deal."

Iran doesn't want Israel to exist and neither do its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. Nothing Israel could give up, other than the entire country, would ever satisfy these groups. Iran having nuclear weapons would permanently end any chance for an Israeli/Palestinian peace deal as Hezbollah and Hamas would grow much stronger under the Iranian nuclear umbrella and block any peace deal.

Hamas being in power in Gaza permanantly blocks any chance for peace and Iran getting the bomb would only fortify their hold.

The REAL bottom line is Israel not having the ability to project hard power and dictate terms on its neighbors.

The REAL problem is that Iran controls organizations dedicated to never making peace with Israel.

Which neighbors is Israel dictating terms to? It made peace with Jordan and Egypt. It withdrew to the UN mandated blue line from Lebanon (and is still being attacked by Hezbollah). It has had no negotiations with Syria and the Palestinians keep rejecting all Israeli peace offers. I don't see any terms being dictated to anyone.

 

SMCI60652

9:00 PM ET

October 6, 2009

You see, that's the problem

You see, that's the problem right there.

People who see the world in duality. We don't see the world with scientific impartiality. We see it as Israel Ultimately Good and Victim, Iran Essentially Bad and Blood thirsty.

This totally disregards the fact that for the majority of Israel's existence up to and likely including now, it and Iran have shared the same enemies. It disregards the fact that both peoples see themselves as surrounded by barbaric and hostile Arabs and their sympathizers.

Ultimately Israel's safety is not threatened by a band of street thugs in Lebanon or the Gaza Strip, regardless of who's arming them. Its major strategic concern is losing its sole claim as the region's only heavyweight.

As for denying that Israel dictates terms, its not a moral judgement that I'm making, I'm saying its common sense. Both peace deals came after battlefield humiliations where Israel emerged with the upper hand. Jordan tried to get the West Bank back and Shamir thought it was too generous, Hussein sued for peace anyway. Sadat tried to secure economic aid from NATO members and win back the Sinai. After getting a world of pain from the Soviet bloc he suceeded in getting both. And then got chewed out by the Baathists and kicked out of the Arab League (psh... who cares? whoopdi friggin' doo).

That's all we should read this as. Self Interest, power enhancement and preservation.

 

DAVE123

9:37 PM ET

October 6, 2009

Iran Essentially Bad and

Iran Essentially Bad and Blood thirsty.

That is not what I am saying at all. The Israelis want peace on their terms, the PA wants peace on its terms.

Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah, however, do not want peace and will do everything their power to stop it.

It is also not in US interests for them to have them as they will be able to cause more harm to US troops there. I also expect that with a nuclear weapon shield, they will atempt to set up Hezbollah II to gain control the Shiite oil rich part of southern Iraq once the US troops leave. Not to mention the nearby Saudi oil fields that are also in Shiite populated regions.

By the way, have you seen what the regime did to its own citizens during the recent protests?

Ultimately Israel's safety is not threatened by a band of street thugs in Lebanon or the Gaza Strip, regardless of who's arming them.

That doesn't mean they can't make life even more miserable for Israelis.

In a recent poll 25% of Israelis said they would emigrate if Iran got the bomb. That would come close to destroying the state. Can you imagine if 75 million people left the US?
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1087342.html

Both peace deals came after battlefield humiliations where Israel emerged with the upper hand. Jordan tried to get the West Bank back and Shamir thought it was too generous, Hussein sued for peace anyway.

The Jordanians were thrilled to be rid of the Palestinians. Don't you remember Black September? The Egyptians got the Sinai back and 3 billion in US aid a year. Israel won the wars, but it obviously did not dictate terms. By the way, Arab countries lost the Yom Kippur War, but most saw it as regaining face as they inflicted a lot of damage on Israel and came close to winning.

 

BETZ55

4:04 PM ET

October 7, 2009

Stop the misinformation

Israel and the AIPAC driven fear mongering that is allowed to happen in the US media are the ones trumpeting the so called Iran threat.

Iran is not threat to the US. The Iran issue is 100% Israeli created.

When Iranian nukes are mentioned the double standard with Israel should be immedietly pointed out.

Israel pre-emptively invades their neighbors and is the unstable, belligerent, aggressive, apartheid force in the Middle East.

Demonizing and warmongering Iran to protect Israel is wrong. Again, the Iranian 'issue' is 100% Israeli.

Unlike Iran, Israel simply has way too much to hide and wants to keep it that way.

When is Israel going to sign the NNPT and allow IAEA inspections ? Which Iran has done.

The US and Israel want Iraninan nuclear transparency? Then Israel better be just as transparent.

Silence about Israelis nuclear weapons and lack of membership to the NPT while maintaining such harsh rhetoric towards Iran's nuclear program, which is legally allowed to enrich uranium as a NPT member is an example of the kind of outright double standard BS that the United States has been following in its foreign policy.

When will Obama hold Israel to the same standards that Israel is demanding of Iran and anyone else who threatens Israel's hegemonic agenda? Level the nuclear playing field or get rid of it.

It is in line with Israeli rhetoric to demonize Iran. It takes the focus off them and it’s their intention to agitate elsewhere so the world does not focus on their ulterior hegemonic motives.

Let's not forget, whatever Israel accuses another country of doing you can bet they themselves have already done it.
To wit, Mordecai Vanunu provided info and photos to the London Sunday Times in 1986 about Dimona.

During the Kennedy years,Israel allowed American nuke scientists to make ‘visits’ to Dimona but these proved to be so ineffective they were eventually discontinued.
When the scientists were allowed into the plant they were rushed through and never allowed to see what they needed to see to confirm that Israel was not developing nuclear weapons.

Of course, a full inspection of the Dimona plant would have revealed that this was exactly what Israel was doing.
Tel Aviv needs to be dealt with before Tehran.

It is telling that President Ford, in 1976, encouraged Iran (then under the US-backed shah) to build both uranium enrichment as well as plutonium processing plants. How is it that what was permissible then under the 1970 NPT, has now become forbidden – under the very same treaty?

Because Israel wants nuclear monopoly in the Middle East even as it breaks international law with impunity and no consequences.

Ahmadinejad is not liked in Tel Aviv because of his strong criticism of the long and brutal Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories.

Ahmadinejad has repeatedly called for a democratic one-state solution for the Middle East conflict, which means that Israel as a "colonial entity" or a "racist sate" will be "wiped off the map" and replaced by a state where Jews and Arabs live side by side peacefully and equally.

But Israeli officials and their media pundits, and people like you who insist in propagating this misinformation keep misquoting the Iranian president, who has recently suggested that he even accepted the two-state solution, if it brings justice to all Palestinians.

After wiping Palestine off the map, Israel currently occupies the Palestinian West Bank and East Jerusalem; the Lebanese Shabaa Farms and the Syrian Golan Heights.
Israel will not even deny or admit to its truly "clandestine" nuclear program. If you want to talk about nuclear ambiguity, look to Israel.

Much of Iran's willingness to divulge its civilian nuclear program has been exactly that--Iran willingly, and not by any requirement of the NPT, to disclose its nuclear activities.

Why has Iran crossed the supposed rubicon of trust. Because it is not an ally of the U.S. or Israel.
Because it may give a terrorist organization a nuclear weapon? These are ignorant and essentialist views that do not stand up to the facts. It's not Iran that preemptively invades, threatens, taunts, and warmongers their neighbors. That's Israel.

 

ALANGER86

9:10 PM ET

October 7, 2009

I'm not going to respond to

I'm not going to respond to all of this, but you completely ignored Iran's violation of its safeguards agreement. The West was pretty worried about a nuclear Iran pre-2002, but the minute that the clandestine facility at Arak was revealed to the public it was beyond apparent that Iran was violating agreements that it had signed to. With nuclear rights come nuclear obligations. Iran has the right to peaceful nuclear technology, but it is also obligated to keep the IAEA in the loop. It hasn't done that to the extent that it should. That's where the problem lies.

Absolutely ridiculous that you think this is a myth created by Israel. That is mind-blowingly stupid.

 

BETZ55

6:16 AM ET

October 8, 2009

Really ? Why ?

Really? Why don't your respond? Iran's violation? How about Israel's? Iran hasn't kept the IAEA "in the loop"?. Nice try, no one's buying. The facts are not on your side. Mind blowingly stupid? Sorry. Not. Get with the program. AIPAC is over. Iran is a myth created by Israel. The US will not be sold on fighting this war. Iraq was enough.

 

SIR_MIXXALOT

8:35 PM ET

October 6, 2009

the nuclear arms race in the middle east has already started!

Good letter in the Boston Globe -- did you read it prof?

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/letters/articles/2009/10/04/us_israeli_threats_do_more_harm_to_world_peace/

IRAN’S NUCLEAR WISHES
US, Israeli threats do more harm to world peace

October 4, 2009

IT IS the accusers, not the accused, who have breached the nuclear nonproliferation treaty (“Talk to Iran, but keep a Plan B,’’ Editorial, Sept. 27).The long-established nuclear powers have manifestly failed to meet their treaty obligation to pursue negotiations toward nuclear disarmament, while Iran is entitled under the treaty to enrich uranium for nonmilitary purposes.

The UN Security Council, in demanding that Iran permanently cease uranium enrichment, assumes that it has the right to abrogate international treaties. It should, instead, declare that Israeli and American threats to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities are a threat to international peace.

Better still, tell Iran that if it forgoes its rights as a signatory of the existing international nonproliferation treaty in a fully verifiable form, the Security Council will ensure that Israel becomes a signatory and surrenders its nuclear weapons. The collective national interests of the West demand no less.

Yugo Kovach
Dorset, United Kingdom

PS: To Dumbass_Dave: the nuclear arms race in the middle east has already been started. NEWSFLASH!!!!!! Yes, mini-me started it!!!!!!

 

DAVE1995

9:25 PM ET

October 6, 2009

Iran's interests

1) Iran has no interest in letting the Taliban win in Afghanistan. Nor is it in Iran's interest to let US/NATO win in Afghanistan. Iran wants Iran to win in Afghanistan -- just as Iran won in Iraq.

2) Iran has the required instruments of power to win in Afghanistan. Only 40% of Afghans are Pashtuns (i.e., the power base of the Taliban). The rest are Shiates, Tajics, Turkman, etc., with close cultural affinity with Iran. Iran can also count on Heckmatyar(i.e., one of the Pashtun warlords that is fighting alongside others to end US/NATO occupation of Afghanistan) for help. During the Taliban rule of Afghanistan, Hekmatyar was sheltered in/supported by Iran.

3) Iran's nuclear program has nothing to do with what does/does not happen in Afghanistan.

4) Iran needs a nuclear-breakout capability for defensive purposes. Why?

(a)Iran is in a dangerous nieghbourhood. India, Pakistan, Israel, Russia, and the US forces in the region are nuclear armed.

(b) Iran can not rely on multilateral or bilateral treaties for protection against WMDs.

(b-i)During the Iran-Iraq war, Saddam used Chemical Weapons against Iran, and the "international community" refused to condemn Saddam.

(b-ii) As part of the agreement that led to the release of the hostages, United States undertook not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs. Yet, the US has repeatedly supported internal dissent and terrorism in Iran.

(b-iii) Under the NPT, the nuclear weapon states undertook to gradually get rid of their weapons, help NPT signatories with nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, and refrain from helping the non-NPT members with the nuclear technology. None of these commitments have been kept. The five nuclear weapon states have not reduced their nuclear arsenals. The nuclear weapon states have supported the non-NPT signatories (e.g., Israel, India) with nuclear technology. The NPT-signatories (e.g.,Iran)were denied nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Germany refused to finish the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran after the Islamic Revolution. Eurofean refused to honor its contractual commitments vis-a-vis Iran. And, last year, under the US pressure, IAEA suspended technical collaboration with Ira,.

(c) Iran receives threats from two nuclear weapons states (i.e., US and Israel) on a daily basis.

(5) Iran will acquire whatever is needed for her defense irrespective of the costs and/or whoever is in power in Iran.

(6) If Iran is attacked by US and/or Israel, Iranian will fight the same way they fought with Saddam Hussain, i.e., Iran will not start a war, but they will have to be begged to finish.

 

JAIBRIOLQOXII

1:57 PM ET

October 7, 2009

Real Issue of Nuclear Iran

Alan Hart summarizes succinctly the real issue of an Iran with nuclear capabilities in his movie review "Farewell Israel": Myth and Reality:

Perhaps without realising that he has let a great, big cat out of the bag, Joel Gilbert [director of the documentary film FAREWELL ISRAEL, Bush, Iran and The Revolt of Islam] has provided the answer. He says (my emphasis added): "Even without attacking Israel, the mere capabilty of Iranian missiles to lay waste to Tel Aviv would create a 'strategic umbrella,' preventing Israel from using its superior strategic assets in a conventional war. With Israeli missiles neutralised, Muslim countries could overwhelm Israel with their superior numbers, conventional armor and short range missiles."

And that's the real point. Israel's military leaders and their political yes-men don't believe, and never have believed, that Iran, if it possessed nuclear weapons, would unleash them in a first strike against the Zionist state. The real problem for its leaders is that the moment Israel ceased to be the only nuclear-armed power in the region, would be the moment it lost its ability to impose its will on the region. And actually the world.

And BTW until someone claiming that Iran is killing or has killed US soldiers in Iran ponies up some credible proof, I have to assume an Israeli false-flag operation or perhaps some US or UK special op possibly gone wrong.

Iran had and has absolutely no reason to hinder US goals in Iraq, for US democratization and nation-building would have created and still may create a much stronger and much more Iran-friendly Iraq.

 

ALANGER86

9:15 PM ET

October 7, 2009

Parts in IEDs and weapons in

Parts in IEDs and weapons in general have been traced back to Iran.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/5477283/Iranian-weapons-getting-through-to-Taliban.html

http://www.cfr.org/publication/13692/

I'm sure I'll be criticized for a CFR link but whatever.

 

DAVE123

3:47 PM ET

October 7, 2009

"I have to assume an Israeli

I have to assume an Israeli false-flag operation or perhaps some US or UK special op possibly gone wrong.

And don't forget Bush and Israel were behind 911.

Iran had and has absolutely no reason to hinder US goals in Iraq, for US democratization and nation-building would have created and still may create a much stronger and much more Iran-friendly Iraq.

You must be joking.

With Israeli missiles neutralised, Muslim countries could overwhelm Israel with their superior numbers, conventional armor and short range missiles.

Thanks for showing why Iran can't be allowed to get nuclear weapons.

 

JAIBRIOLQOXII

5:12 AM ET

October 8, 2009

It's Not Out Problem

The maintenance of a racist genocidal Zionist state in Stolen and Occupied Palestine is no more an obligation of the USA than maintaining the Confederate slave state in the Southern USA was an obligation for the UK, and in the end because the cost of the US-Israel alliance currently totals approximately $7-9 trillion dollars and is rising rapidly, the USA will be better off the faster the State of Israel is consigned to the garbage dump of Israel.

Anyone that does not believe in the reality of Jewish Zionist false-flag operations or agents procateurs simply does not know either his Zionist or his Jewish history.

Taming Obama by Pruning Advisors references the history of dubious casus belli since the Spanish American War. It is interesting that the USA was brought into WW1 by the Zimmerman Note, which may have been created by Zionist agents provocateurs and which may have been the real explosive technology with which Weizmann helped the British war effort.

We are still living the disaster -- especially in the Balkans in the 90s -- that the US entry into WW1 with subsequent British and French victory created. A Peace to End All Peace by David Fromkin describes the mess that the vivisection of the Ottoman Empire created especially with the establishment of the perversion of the Jewish National Home in Palestine, but we must remember that the carving up of the German and Austrian empires was at least as dangerous, and that inter bellum Czechoslovakia was almost as much an atrocity as the State of Israel is today.

Anyway, the Taming Obama blog entry describes some of the effort that Israel Advocates have made to create the phony threat of al-Qaeda, and as I point out:

Nowadays, the US government appears to believe that the Pakistani Khalid Shaikh Muhammad (KSM), captured by Pakistan in Pakistan, was the planner of 9/11, but he had one or at most two brief meetings with Osama bin Ladin (UBL) while religiously and ethnically he simply was not the sort of person with whom UBL would collaborate.

Afghanistan and UBL almost certainly had as little connection to 9/11 as Iraq did, and there is no reason to take seriously KSM's confession obtained under torture.

We may never learn the real truth about KSM and 9/11 as the Zionist subversives operating in the Bush administration surely intended.

Just as foreign policy analysts have spent a lot of time in learning the intricacies of Islamist politics since 9/11, they really should spend at least as much effort on Jewish Zionist politics. Introduction: Jewish Historical Political Economics is a good place to start.

BTW, in re the last quote:

With Israeli missiles neutralised, Muslim countries could overwhelm Israel with their superior numbers, conventional armor and short range missiles.

Note that Hart prefaced that passage with the following:

Even without attacking Israel, the mere capabilty of Iranian missiles to lay waste to Tel Aviv would create a 'strategic umbrella,' preventing Israel from using its superior strategic assets in a conventional war.

In other words Zionists are worried that Israel might have to negotiate in good faith, return stolen properties, and repatriate the population that Zionists ethnically cleansed according to plans that can be traced back to 1881.

This dreadful possibility makes me shed rivers of tears for Zionists and Jewish racists.

Jews legitimize growing hatred of Jews throughout the world as long as they refrain from unequivocally and categorically renouncing and denouncing Zionist ideology, which in all forms assumes that Jews have the right to plunder and to kill non-Jews with impunity.

 

ALANGER86

4:37 PM ET

October 8, 2009

"Really? Why don't your

"Really? Why don't your respond? Iran's violation? How about Israel's? Iran hasn't kept the IAEA "in the loop"?. Nice try, no one's buying. The facts are not on your side. Mind blowingly stupid? Sorry. Not. Get with the program. AIPAC is over. Iran is a myth created by Israel. The US will not be sold on fighting this war. Iraq was enough."

Is your argument that weak that you have to bring Israel into this? Let's separate the two. Israel has a weapons program but has never made it public. On paper, they aren't in violation of anything because they have not signed to the NPT. The weakness of the NPT/IAEA/UNSC is an entirely different debate (rather, not something that I want to sit and type about here) but much of that is what allows Israel this loophole. Complain all you want about it, that's the way it is.

Everyone agrees Iran is in violation of WHAT IT HAS SIGNED ON TO. Do you see the difference? In fact, do you even read the news? Yes, Iran has not kept the IAEA "in the loop" as per its obligations under the Safeguards Agreement(s). Also, in no way am I advocating a military strike against Iran, so you can save your "Iraq was enough" comments for someone else. You conspiracy theorists are a joke-- Israel created a myth about Iran? Give me a break. There is hard evidence about Iran's connection to terrorist organizations that are trying to work against the US in the Middle East. There is extremely strong evidence that Iran wants the capability to build a nuclear bomb. That evidence has been backed up by the US, the EU, the IAEA, and the Security Council. Total Israel myth, right?

 

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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