Chastened in China

Posted By Stephen M. Walt Share

President Obama didn't get any concessions during his recent visit to the People's Republic of China, and no one should be surprised. One of the most important lessons in life is that if you make a series of big mistakes, you should expect to pay a price for them. Back in 2000, the United States was running a budget surplus, our military was second-to-none, our image in most parts of the world was quite positive, and our economy had been growing steadily for nearly a decade. Some of that growth may have been illusory, however, and the next eight years featured a daunting combination of misfortunes (9/11, Hurricane Katrina), and self-inflicted wounds (e.g., the financial crisis, the invasion of Iraq, the endless war in Afghanistan, the abandonment of any sense of fiscal responsibility, etc.). There's no magic button or clever diplomatic sleight of hand that will allow the United States to retrieve its former position without some real sacrifices, and so far, nobody seems eager to make the changes that might be necessary.

Hence Obama's modest demeanor in Beijing. No president is going to be able to lay down the law on human rights, exchange rates, or sanctions on Iran when China owns over a trillion dollars in U.S. assets, when the U.S. economy is on life support, and when the American military Is mired in two losing wars. Until we get our house in order over here, nobody should expect China to be especially responsive to our wishes or expect its leaders to view the "American model" as especially appealing. An wide-open marketplace of ideas hardly looks attractive when the result is the intellectual ascendancy of Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh.  

The follies of the past eight years were the greatest gift the United States could have given Beijing, and Obama's conduct in Beijing was the inevitable result. And if we keep doing what we've been doing (see under: Afghanistan, Middle East, etc.), I wouldn't expect things to change.

MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

 
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JANBEKSTER

11:40 PM ET

November 18, 2009

The best to be achieved..

is to stick to the old trusted and safe formula; peaceful co-existence between two powers with, different socio-economic an political systems, simply because one power has to co-exist because the other one owns its bonds, while the orher has to co-exist because it still finds it profitable to own those bonds.

khairi janbek.paris/france

 

ARVAY

12:26 PM ET

November 19, 2009

Silver lining?

Let's hope the Chinese informed Obama that any Israeli strike on Iran, threatening China's access to il, will result in severe economic retribution.

Just to make sure, they'd need to directly inform the Israelis, who actually control our Mideast policy.

 

APARICIO

8:31 PM ET

November 19, 2009

What would you if named Secretary

I made this question before professor Walt. Let suppose you are offered the wheel of the State Dep. (though, that would include assuming the AIPAC would collapse). What is the first steps you would follow....

 

ZATHRAS

4:31 PM ET

November 20, 2009

Once Again, The Story

It should be beyond question that events during the last eight years have weakened America's international position in a number of ways. It is nonetheless a mistake to reason from this to the conclusion that the meager results of President Obama's trip to Asia were inevitable.

Obama went to China without a trade policy. In the big picture, he has a trade policy for the United Steelworkers and other Democratic constituencies, but not for the governments with which America must negotiate. Obama also went to China with messages to the domestic audience about terrorism with America's enemies and engagement with other countries; with respect to the Chinese all he had was a determination to do and say nothing that would lead Chinese government media to criticize him.

And Obama went to China with his biography. God, but I get tired of this. It isn't just that I've listened to him tell his "story" what seems like thousands of times already, or that some of the chapters in his life story -- for example, Harvard -- are less inspiring to me than they may be for either Americans who have never been to any college or for Americans who went to Harvard themselves.

It's that there is just no reason to think his insistence on importing campaign themes into the Presidency will have the impact on each and every foreign audience that it does on Democratic primary voters. The Chinese, both government officials and others, are interested in China; they are interested in what America thinks of China, and in American actions that affect China. The story of one American who has no Chinese ancestry, a story that has no conceivable analog to anything possible in China today, doesn't say anything to the Chinese. It's just a means of filling up time -- and perhaps, of making it easier to get through a state visit without dwelling either on things Obama fears might aggravate the Chinese government or on areas like trade about which Obama does not have anything to say.

 

KEROL LUNDY

1:02 AM ET

November 23, 2009

US policy toward China

We all know that the US is the biggest uneducated consumer society on earth, with the current state of affair; it is unlikely that the US can play hardball with China. Although the economic success of the latter depends on a strong and viable economy of the former, otherwise the pile of junk manufactured in China would not find a home to stay. Despite being in a weak position to negotiate and influence a competitor, the US policy makers still think they could choke China as far as energy access is concern. The latest move to create the AFRICOM center is to counter China assertive* African policy. The same policy is applied for the Middle East, China has strong commercial interest in Iran, the US is trying isolating that country using legal channel such as the IAEA and the UN to attain its political objective. The picture is grim for the US; the Obama administration needs to clean up the mess left by the previous administration before undertaking any meaningful foreign policy initiative.

 

VANBOMMEL

10:04 AM ET

December 14, 2009

Obama's visit to China

Yeah, "American model" is not appealing for China. Any concessions during the visit but many promises. I'm doing my term papers just now about this visit.

 

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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