Not only are Congressman Berman's sanctions unlikely to work against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps...the sanctions regime in general is questionable and ineffective to this type of threat. The U.N. Security Council has already passed three rounds of sanctions as a response to Tehran's noncompliance on nuclear issues. And as we all know, these sanctions continue to demonstrate their lack of effectiveness. The IRGC is stronger than ever, and President Ahmadinejad- while battling political rivals at home- remains rather powerful within Iran's foreign-policy establishment.

The only way sanctions can work is if other nations- particularly China, Russia, Venezuela, and Sudan- are willing to go along with the U.N. plan. All four are allies of the Islamic Republic, and all four have shown their distrust and outright opposition to a U.S.-created sanctions regime. Even if China and Russia were to sign on, there is no guarantee that other oil producers (a.k.a. Sudan and Venezuela) would not sabotage the entire embargo. Hugo Chavez has already stated that he will send 20,000 barrels of refined gasoline per day to Iran in the event of an economic blockade.

Like you said Dr. Walt, this is nothing but a formality. Perhaps we should endorse a more realistic approach to dealing with the Iranian nuclear problem; nuclear deterrence in the Middle East, and an enhanced U.S.-Arab security relationship. Contrary to what Israeli lobbyists would like us to believe, Iran is a relatively rational state in the international system. Yes, they talk about "wiping Israel of the map," but surely they understand that doing so would mean the complete annihilation of Iran as both a country and society. Using nuclear weapons in an aggressive way surely does not serve Khamenei and Ahmadinejad's primary interest; self-preservation and regime control.

http://depetris.wordpress.com

"The new measure is the brainchild of Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA)...."

Ah, a message from Israel to Iran: "See what we can get our bitch to do?"

Here's something really solid to game out though: If you were Iran and you had these sanctions imposed on you what retaliatory measures *wouldn't* you start to engage in?

Let's see ... almost certainly not only because it's the easiest but also because it's basically risk-and-cost-free you would for sure start using and helping your assets in Iraq to start killing more U.S. servicemen and women.... Probably could get it going damn near overnight, and would only take about a month to really ramp it up via infusion of extra supplies, support and expertise. Targets are also pretty unlimited and, best of all, given diversion of most if not all of their possible support to Afghanistan they have limited ability to respond and defend so could be a very rich and inviting target environment indeed.

Not at all unlikely to me, could even be done rather openly so the U.S. got the message right back as to why it was being done.

Then how about a little something to jack up the price of oil in the U.S. and really make its economic recovery a laugh? Say, an unattributable sinking of something in the Straits of Hormuz? Or periodic releases of rafts of mines through same?

Neither can be unthought of in Washington, and yet our so-called leaders are still going ahead and so the question is whether there is any limit at all to the number of U.S. lives or interests that our politicos aren't willing to sacrifice for the sake of their personal careers?

Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.

One doesn't believe personally, that sanctions can work against Iran; especially that there are so many potential sanctions-busters for the right price, in additon to the fact that, Iran has already instituted its own gazoline rationing and pricing policies in anticipation of possible 5+1 sanctions a few weeks down the road.

Although the Congressional sanctions; even the possible 5+1 sanctions would be redundant even before they're imposed, one cannot help thinking that, for those whom are against military action, even vacuous posturing, may well be infinately more preferable to, not so vacuous posturing.

At the same time, if the 5+1 sanctions are imposed eventually, will that be considerd by Iran, as a provocation to take some pricipitate action; thus causing a war which everyone is trying to avoid, or is it going to be as prof.Walt says, alla ctions seem to have been taken, but there is no alternative to war?. Of course one cannot read the future, but it is likely also, that presidnet obama will continue to negotiate with Iran; albeit with leaky sanctions, until such a time, not in so distant future, that it becomes impossible, or far too costly, to take military action against Iran.
khairi janbek.paris/france

I am personally not worried about Iran using the bomb. I think Iran's leadership is rational enough to understand MAD. I am worried about accidental fissile/technology handoff to terrorists, conventional and nuclear arms races in the Middle East to balance against Iran, an Iranian push for further hegemony in Bahrain, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, etc. and the overall deterioration of US interests in the region.

Iran is a threat to Israel as well, but it is ridiculous to claim that that is the ONLY reason why the US doesn't want them to have the bomb.

Iraq will cooperate in no such sanctions.

Iran is a threat to Israel? Great!

UK was a threat to Nazi Germany in WW II.

The world community was a threat to Apartheid South Africa.

Some countries deserve to be under threat. Like the current apartheid version of Israel.

Yes, there is also Anti-Americanism in Iran. Why oh why is there Anti-Americanism? Many reasons, but we have to admit our fault: our bad policies (some fomented by zionist think tanks), as even the Defense Science Board has admitted (see below).

Some of AQ's and even Iran's causes are legitimate even if their means to achieve them are WRONG. Why can't Iran enrich U in accordance with NPT? UN does not have the right to abrogate int'l treaties!

Our flawed foreign policy engenders anti-Americanism.

We have indirectly killed >1 million muslim civilians in Iraq and Af/Pak.

The US-led war on terrorism has left in its wake a far more unstable world than existed on that momentous day in 2001: Rather than diminishing, the threat from al Qaeda and its affiliates has grown, engulfing new regions of Africa, Asia, and Europe and creating fear among peoples from Australia to Zanzibar. The US invasions of two Muslim countries have so far failed to contain either the original organization or the threat that now comes from its copycats in British or French cities who have been mobilized through the Internet. The al Qaeda leader is still at large, despite the largest manhunt in history.

Afghanistan is once again staring down the abyss of state collapse, despite billions of dollars in aid, a hundred thousand Western troops, and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. The Taliban have made a dramatic comeback. The international community had an extended window of opportunity for several years to help the Afghan people—they failed to take advantage of it.

Pakistan has undergone a slower but equally bloody meltdown. In 2007 there were 56 suicide bombings in Pakistan that killed 640 people, compared to just 6 bombings in the previous year.

In 2009, American power lies shattered, US credibility lies in ruins. Ultimately the strategies of the Bush administration have created a far bigger crisis in South and Central Asia than existed before 9/11.

Eight years of neocon foreign policies have been a spectacular disaster for American interests in the Islamic world, leading to the rise of Iran as a major regional power, the advance of Hamas and Hezbollah, the wreckage of Iraq, with over two million external refugees and the ethnic cleansing of its Christian population, and now the implosion of Afghanistan and Pakistan, probably the most dangerous development of all.

This is what the US government’s Defense Science Board has to say on the situation

“American efforts have not only failed in this respect: they may also have achieved the opposite of what they intended.

American direct intervention in the Muslim World has paradoxically elevated the stature of and support for radical Islamists, while diminishing support for the United States to single-digits in some Arab societies.

• Muslims do not “hate our freedom,” but rather, they hate our policies.

The overwhelming majority voice their objections to what they see as one-sided support in favor of Israel and against Palestinian rights, and the longstanding, even increasing support for what Muslims collectively see as tyrannies, most notably Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Pakistan, and the Gulf states.

• Thus when American public diplomacy talks about bringing democracy to Islamic societies, this is seen as no more than self-serving hypocrisy. Moreover, saying that
“freedom is the future of the Middle East” is seen as patronizing, suggesting that Arabs are like the enslaved peoples of the old Communist World — but Muslims do not feel this way: they feel oppressed, but not enslaved.

• Furthermore, in the eyes of Muslims, American occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq has not led to democracy there, but only more chaos and suffering. U.S. actions appear in contrast to be motivated by ulterior motives, and deliberately controlled in order to best serve American national interests at the expense of truly Muslim selfdetermination.

• Therefore, the dramatic narrative since 9/11 has essentially borne out the entire radical Islamist bill of particulars. American actions and the flow of events have
elevated the authority of the Jihadi insurgents and tended to ratify their legitimacy among Muslims. Fighting groups portray themselves as the true defenders of an Ummah (the entire Muslim community) invaded and under attack — to broad public support.

• What was a marginal network is now an Ummah-wide movement of fighting groups. Not only has there been a proliferation of “terrorist” groups: the unifying context of a shared cause creates a sense of affiliation across the many cultural and sectarian boundaries that divide Islam.”

====

Our messing around overseas (witness our clear involvement with the terrorist murder of 5 Iranian revolutionary guards recently) causes blowback terrorism. It does not matter whether or not AQ has any safe havens or not or whether Hezbollah is rearming— regular people — heck, even US army officers, it appears — can become radicalized by the sheer extent of our injustice abroad.

Note I am not justifying what they did. Their means are WRONG. But their cause is, at least partly, just.

We need to stop our addiction to oil and leave the middle east.

Force — even when wielded by the seemingly strong against the nominally weak — continues to be an exceedingly uncertain instrument. The United States’ penchant for projecting power has created as many problems as it has solved. Genuinely decisive outcomes remain rare, costs often far exceed expectations, and unintended and unwelcome consequences are legion.

The pursuit of US military dominance is an illusion, the principal effect of which is to distort strategic judgment by persuading policymakers that they have at hand the means to make short work of history’s complexities. The real need is to wean the United States from its infatuation with military power and come to a more modest appreciation of what force can and cannot do.

We have to come to the painful conclusion that we have created much of the terrorism and anti-Americanism that we are subject to via our terrible foreign policies. It will be difficult to protect us from our (well-earned) blowback without fixing our own foreign policy.

Here is the link to the MIT official who calculates >1000000 dead muslim civilians as a result of our war of choice.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12150

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