"Do I contradict myself? Very well, then I contradict myself, (I am large; I contain multitudes)." --Walt Whitman

Readers here know that I recommended that we not pay much attention to Barack Obama's Nobel Prize acceptance speech, mostly because what mattered was not what he said -- we all know by now that he’s eloquent on such occasions -- but what he did.

Needless to say, the commentariat ignored this advice, with prominent pundits like Andrew Sullivan, David Brooks, and George Packer praising Obama’s remarks for his Niebuhrian "Christian Realism." (In his New Yorker comment on the speech, Packer uses variations on the word "realism" four different times.) So having originally decided to ignore it, I decided I’d better go back and read it again (see Whitman quotation above).

There's no question that realists can find much to agree with in the speech.  Instead of promising a "war to end all wars," he warned his listeners that "we will not eradicate violent conflict in our lifetimes." He also acknowledged that the use of force is sometimes "not only necessary but morally justified" and made it clear that his role as head of state is first and foremost "to protect and defend” the United States. Why? Because he must "face the world as it is, and cannot stand idle in the face of threats to the American people." Hard to think of a more "realist" notion than that. And surely realists would agree that his position is "a recognition of history, the imperfections of man, and the limits of reason."

That said, other aspects of the speech were less consistent with realist thinking as well as less convincing in themselves. He suggested that the world "needed institutions to prevent another world war," even though the case that institutions can or have performed that role is weak. Institutions are useful tools, to be sure, and one can argue that the United Nations has performed valuable peace-keeping roles in a number of places, but institutions cannot prevent great powers from pursuing their interests and did relatively little to prevent another world war.

Instead, as Obama himself acknowledged, what has kept peace among the great powers over the past sixty years is mostly power. Here Obama gave full credit to the United States, saying that it "has helped underwrite global security for more than six decades." Most realists would agree -- but only up to a point. As Campbell Craig and Fredrik Logevall show in their excellent new book, America’s Cold War, the United States did play a positive role in stabilizing Europe after World War II and in containing possible Soviet expansion in that region afterwards. But they also show that America’s role in Indochina, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East was far more destructive, even though the U.S. leaders who conducted these policies undoubtedly thought they are serving a larger moral purpose as well.

Furthermore, despite his wise remarks about the human capacity for error, the limits of reason, and the like, it was still a speech that invoked the threat of “evil” to justify the use of force, and applied an implicit double standard to the conduct of the United States, its friends, and other powerful states.   

This contradiction was most evident in his discussion of the need for "certain rules of conduct" regarding the use of force, and his call to "develop alternatives to violence that are tough enough to change behavior." In particular, he wants to sanction "regimes that break the rules" and declared they "must be held accountable -- sanctions must exact a real price." He went on to say "those who claim to respect international law cannot avert their eyes when those laws are flauted."

But although Obama said that "all nations -- strong and weak alike -- must adhere to standards that govern the use of force," he clearly didn't mean it.   He was hardly endorsing international sanctions against the United States when it breaks existing "rules of conduct," as it did when it invaded Iraq in 2003, fired cruise missiles into Sudan in 1998, or engages in targeted assassinations of suspected terrorists (and sometimes kills innocent civilians in the bargain) today. Surely he was not proposing to sanction Israel for its refusal to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty or for its illegal colonization of the West Bank. Nor do I think he was suggesting that the international community hold China "accountable" for its absorption of Tibet.

One could argue that this part of the speech was eminently "realist" too -- the strong do what they can, while the weak suffer what they must. And despite his reminder that "evil exists," Obama acknowledged the possibility that fear of change and other sources of insecurity can lead to extreme actions, and that no one is immune to that temptation. "For we are fallible," he said, "We make mistakes, and fall victim to the temptation of pride and power, and sometimes evil."

That passage was perhaps the most genuinely “realist” element in the speech. Like most liberals, Americans are prone to demonizing their supposedly "evil" adversaries and find it hard to admit that sometimes our own behavior isn't so very different. It's not just that other states have a "reflexive suspicion of America, the world's sole military superpower," as Obama put it, the real problem is that some of that suspicion is warranted.   Realists understand the moral distinctions can and should be drawn, but they also recognize that much harm is done not with openly evil intent, but rather through a combination of fear, stupidity, sloth, greed and narrow-mindedness. Insecurity is hardwired into the anarchic international system, and with that insecurity comes suspicion, competition, and the omnipresent possibility that smart and well-intentioned people will still make big mistakes. When great power is involved, even seemingly small acts of corruption or malfeasance can have horrific consequences.

In the end, that is why I still think we should pay less attention to what he said and focus on what he and his advisors do. In his first year in office, President Obama has made two critical decisions involving matters of war, peace and justice. The first is his decision to abandon the admirable principles he set forth in his Cairo speech in June, to tacitly accept the continued expansion of Israel's West Bank settlements, and to collude in a well-orchestrated assault on the Goldstone Report on war crimes in Gaza.  The result will be to perpetuate precisely the sort of injustice that gives rise to very violence he deplored in his speech. The second is his decision to escalate the war in Afghanistan -- sending 17,000 troops last spring and 30,000 more last month -- despite the continued absence of a compelling rationale or coherent strategy for success.

From Day One, Obama has shown that he is a thoughtful and intelligent leader who takes his responsibilities seriously and weighs decisions carefully. But in the end, what matters is not how long or hard he thinks or how well he talks. What matters is whether he makes the right decisions. And by that criterion, he's 0 for 2.

JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images

 
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ANON_ANON

7:52 PM ET

December 18, 2009

For a realist

and one who talks logistics rather than tactics (or however the hackneyed phrase goes), you seem to neglect how incredibly, incredibly, incredibly impossible it would be to "unstick" Israel's occupation of the West Bank. Think Paul Pierson, Politics in Time, critical junctures, sunk costs, etc., etc. If it took so much effort to disengage from the Gaza, then could the same be done with respect to the West Bank? I could go on, but I think any such attempt would probably tear apart the Israeli polity - it might very well not be able to be accomplished.

 

STEPHEN M. WALT

8:01 PM ET

December 18, 2009

In fact, I'm...

In fact, I'm increasingly mindful of that problem, which is why I wrote things like this.

 

DAVID IN DC

8:31 PM ET

December 18, 2009

It has always seemed to me

It has always seemed to me that it would be best for the Palestinians if they negotiated borders sooner rather than later, thereby reserving the land that is to be theirs as theirs.

As a "realist", you should realize the obvious - Israel will keep building and all of the one-state predictions won't come true because Israel will never allow it. The Palestinians will eventually be squeezed into some kind of federation with Jordan on a fraction of the land they could have gotten at Annapolis.

The Palestinian strategy of eschewing negotiations in the hope that the world will put pressure on Israel to unilaterally concede what should be negotiated is a big gamble and one which they will likely lose.

 

ANON_ANON

8:20 PM ET

December 18, 2009

thanks for the acknowledgement

Professor Walt - I'll reread post (I DID read it before, I believe - honest!).

Thanks,
A former student

 

ANON_ANON

8:23 PM ET

December 18, 2009

incidentally

Van Creveld gets into this a bit in his Critical History of the IDF (Sword and the Olive?) - the potential for an Israeli Civil War. There's an article by Uri Ben-Eliezer (Theory and Society, Social Forces...?) on Israeli militarism in light of the French "coup" of 1958 that touches on some of the same themes. And needless to say, the recent insubordination of IDF battalions and brigades (seemingly mostly in the Kfir brigade) does not bode well. There's a great article in Security Studies (Yagil Levy?) on how the IDF was able to effectuate the Gaza withdrawal (essentially, placing those mostly likely to be insubordinate where they would be least likely to BE insubordinate).

Thanks again for posting,
A former student

 

ANON_ANON

8:26 PM ET

December 18, 2009

And

Van Creveld also predicted that too much focusing on low-intensity conflict in ISrael's "Counterinsurgency" campaign in the West Bank would mean it would have trouble wihth high- or (now-) "hybrid" conflicts (a la Lebanon 2006).

A former student

 

JANBEKSTER

12:22 PM ET

December 19, 2009

Realist.

Though I don't know if President Obama is vying for the endorsement of any school of political thought, I would say his speech was rather "realistic", in the sense that, he seems to have finally recognised the importance of dealing with "things as they are", rather than "how they ought to be".
khairi janbek.paris/france

 

SIN NOMBRE

3:28 PM ET

December 19, 2009

Terminological incoherence= Policy incoherence

Wait a minute, with all due respect to Professor Walt here (and others, as well as some of the "names" he linked to), I thought "realism" was the school of thought that held that in general at least the U.S. ought to act internationally not in accord with some vague sense of idealism but instead out of its own much harder-nosed interests.

Instead what I see here is a kind of "realism-lite" whereby now all it means is that we don't look at the world through any too-rose-colored a glass. Thus for instance we see Walt praising as "the most genuinely 'realist' element" in Obama's speech that part where Obama merely talked about the dangers of making mistakes or becoming victims of pride and power and etc.

To me at least this (Walt's) perspective is not realism, or at least not what I would like to see followed. (Acknowledging that calling him of all people a non-realist makes one look like a kook.) Merely "taking into consideration" the danger of making a mistake or acting too pridefully or etc. just isn't enough for me at least: What crusading *idealist* hasn't advocated those things, after all? (And now of course it is idealist Obama himself doing this too.) And yet, time after time in my perspective at least, they nevertheless have rolled the realists and have still gotten us into quagmire after quagmire.

Seems to me real "realists" or whatever you wanna call them ought to squarely face that, you bet, following realism is not a prescription for creating Utopia on earth. Because otherwise what happens is what we've seen time after time: Kitten-like, almost apologetically, the "realists-lite" raise this or that oh-so-cautious and self-effacing suggestion that this or that crusade or policy is wrong-headed, and of course they are steam-rolled, and bang so as to not seem anti-idealistic there they are coming around eventually to perceiving that "oh yeah, of *course* our interests are involved there, sorry." And we're off to "help the South Vietnamese to help themselves" with some pathetic gloss of self-interest they have added, or, now, to reform all of Araby and/or Islam.

Whether fear of being seen as out of step with the modern love of appearing oh-so-idealistic, or fear of being called an isolationist, "realism-lite" just hasn't cut it. And yet it still seems so self-apologetic despite the fact that idealism itself can be seen as just starting to face its real consequences.

It was after all idealism that got us into Iraq and that got us into occupying Afghanistan, and just because it was a Republican who did it makes no difference: The Democrats were right there in favor of it, overwhelmingly. And it's Obama's wars now and he seems to like them well enough, and it is after all Obama who in this latest speech that is openly declaring them idealistic. (While at the same time apologizing for them, showing that even idealists aren't liking where their idealism leads them.)

C'mon, Professor, now's the time! Does "realism" have any discrete coherence—and thus force—or not? Because if all it means is that before we go crusading around or supporting this or that foreign cause that we still don't measure our own interests in with a gimlet eye but instead only gently consider whether we might be "making a little mistake" or etc., I don't think it's ever going to have any force.

Of course I appreciate that with these wars and occupations and as regards our policy with Israel Walt *has* been on the "right" side, at least by my measure of right and wrong. (And history's too I think has now been shown!) So I'm not really criticizing Walt for not being on the right side. Just wishing he'd not feel that he has to walk the idealist talk so much because I think that especially now that idealism's true costs are becoming apparent, it is all the more important not to obscure the fact that there is an alternative to it.

 

SIR_MIXXALOT

8:33 PM ET

December 19, 2009

Prof. -- did you see this?

Prof. -- did you see this? Are these the words of Nobel winner?

http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20091218_2685.php

"The United States cannot indefinitely prevent Israel from launching strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities if China maintains its opposition to new punitive measures aimed at curbing the Middle Eastern state's disputed nuclear activities, U.S. President Barack Obama warned Chinese President Hu Jintao last month..."

 

SIR_MIXXALOT

9:40 PM ET

December 19, 2009

It is puzzling. Why can't USA

It is puzzling. Why can't USA control Israel? It should be easy.

I would start by saying that if you bomb Iran, we will cut off the $5,000,000,000.00 US taxpayers send to Israel each year. ($14m per DAY!).

 

JANBEKSTER

11:05 AM ET

December 20, 2009

Realism/Idealism

I think both notions, mean nearly the same in US politics, as they do outside. Bith have been present; albeit in varying degrees, in every phase of US foreign policy since it was created.

I would say in simple terms, that Realism involves recognising that, while the world is an evil place, it can hardly be avoided, therefore, the US can co-exist with it despite that fact that it is un-American.

While the way I see Idealism, is that it begins with the same premise in order to reach a different conclusion. Simply again, the US sees itself here as a beacon that shines for the world; and there is nothing neutral about a beacon. So, in the adaptation of the saying " what was good for General Motors, was good for America", similarly, what was good for the US, was good also for the rest of the world.
khairi janbek.paris/france

 

ALICE

1:26 AM ET

December 21, 2009

wow, nice article and i think

wow, nice article and i think your vistors will also like the discount ugg boots and women's ugg boots for winter.

 

FELIX KLEIN

3:33 PM ET

December 21, 2009

A mild disagreement

Dear Mr. Walt,

I tend to agree with your assessments most of the times, but not all of the times. This is one of those times when I think that your 0 for 2 evaluation of Obama's foreign policy is too categorical.

I think you made a compelling case why Obama's Afghanistan surge decision is fraught with difficulties and it lacks a clear path to the final goal. By implication, that would make leaving Afghanistan a great decision. I haven't read any convincing argument from you or any other source why that would be the case.

In the purely mathematical world of my alter ego Felix Klein we would have only clear cut choices, true/false, black/white. In my mind, Afghanistan lives in a fuzzy universe where we don't have these clear cut choices. I am a gentler grader than you and I would asses his performance as 0.5 for 1.5, give or take a few percentages here and there.

 

MARTY24

7:40 PM ET

December 21, 2009

Obama and Afghanistan

Both Walt's and Felix Klein's assessments of Obama's role in Afghanistan, and what he said about it at the Nobel ceremony, leave out what is known about his psychological make-up. Obama is an obsessive narcissist, someone who cannot separate reality from his own persona. Once that is factored in, his decisions on Afghanistan begin to look very different:

During the campaign, Obama came out in favor of focusing on Afghanistan mainly as a means for denouncing Bush's policy on Iraq. When he first made his claim, Iraq looked like a disaster, but by the time the campaign was fully under way, Iraq had already moved to the back burner, largely because the Bush Administration had finally decided to put in the required resources. Since he couldn't reverse himself, and come out in favor of what appeared to have been a successful policy in Iraq, without looking like a rank amateur, he was stuck pushing for a greater effort in Afghanistan. Having talked himself into a corner on Afghanistan, he now needs to find a way to get out without confirming that he is indeed a rank amateur when it comes to foreign policy. I don't see any escape for him.

The great irony in all this is that if Afghanistan is indeed a country where outsiders cannot possibly succeed, then Bush's decision to change the venue of his war against terror to Iraq was essential to making success possible, and Obama's policy will lead to inevitable failure. Polls already show that nearly half the public would prefer to have Bush than Obama. If Afghanistan goes bad, as seems likely, that percentage may sky-rocket.

 

MATTHIEU1

3:26 PM ET

January 2, 2010

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ANON_ANON

9:03 AM ET

January 4, 2010

THis should be

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1262339384374&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Don't know if you're still reading or get updates when new comments come in, but this will be a test of whether Gaza-style disengagement can occur

 

LOGAN65

4:40 PM ET

January 7, 2010

I Believe

This man is a great president precisely because he can inspire and give hope to people. I myself have great hope and faith in President Obama to help us as a country find our way, and respect the real American traditions of moral and just governance.

Regards,
Frank Fattizi/a>

 

JCBROWN

2:50 AM ET

January 28, 2010

Obama is a great speaker; he

Obama is a great speaker; he is too good at that, to make the crowd feel engaged with your talks is a special ability which not many people possess. Obama is a gifted person in case with his speech I have always felt that, but quite often I have thought about his speech and actions would they work together and easily in the way as he talks? We would only get a definite answer with the passage of time. For the Nobel Prize Obama was not the right person because he had not done anything to gain a Nobel Prize that soon. Winning in an election and putting up great speeches are not a criteria for getting Nobel Prize. He should be able to prove himself before the world that his words and actions do match and would help in bringing a wonderful world for the people to live in. Regards Atlas Direct Travel Precision Machining Change Machines dale earnhardt jr calendar

 

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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