Posted By Stephen M. Walt Share

After reading several post-mortems on the abortive attempt to blow up Northwest Flight 253 the other day, there's little doubt that the security procedures failed badly. Here's the kicker, courtesy of the New York Times:

The family of the suspect arrested in the Dec. 25 incident, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, said on Monday that they had been trying to locate him for weeks, had sought help from Nigerian and American officials and would cooperate with an investigation. His father, a prominent Nigerian banker and former government official, phoned the American Embassy in Abuja in October with a warning that his son had developed radical views, had disappeared and might have traveled to Yemen. But embassy officials did not revoke the young man's visa to enter the United States, which was good until June 2010.

Instead, officials said on Sunday, they marked the file of the son, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, for a full investigation should he ever reapply for a visa. And when they passed the information on to Washington, Mr. Abdulmutallab's name was added to 550,000 others with some alleged terrorist connections -- but not to the no-fly list. That meant no flags were raised when he used cash to buy a ticket to the United States and boarded a plane, checking no bags.

Other commentators have already pointed out some of the reasons for the failure (among other things, our "watch lists" are bloated with lots of people who got placed on them on dubious grounds), but the predictable outrage at this obvious failure needs to be tempered with a bit of, well, realism.

The cruel reality is that no combination of security measures and counter-terrorist action can drive the risk of terrorist attacks-including attacks on airliners-down to zero. All of these protective measures involve considerable expense and divert resources away from other initiatives that could also save lives or make people safer. We should of course take reasonable precautions -- like secure locks on cockpit doors so that planes cannot be commandeered and transformed into weapons as they were on 9/11 -- and continue to work on refining security procedures. Varying routines and holding officials accountable (now there's a novel concept!) makes sense too.

But we also need to recognize that we can never achieve perfect security, and that means terrorist attacks will sometimes succeed. (Airline travel is a lot safer than it was fifty years ago, but airplanes sometimes crash for other reasons and we can't make that impossible either). There are enough angry people out there; destructive technology is too plentiful, and all security procedures are fallible, especially in the face of adversaries who can calculate and plan and look for chinks in the armor. This danger -- which is often overstated but will not disappear completely -- is simply part of the price of doing business in the contemporary world.  And we are kidding ourselves if we think otherwise.

Moreover, at some point the cost of additional security precautions simply isn't worth it in terms of the additional safety gained, especially if it means neglecting other steps that could improve human well-being. Our aim should be to prevent the worst sorts of attacks -- and especially those involving weapons of mass destruction -- while admitting to ourselves that perfect security is impossible. The good news -- and it really is good -- is that the probability that any of us will be harmed in a terrorist incident is far lower than the odds we will die in a car accident or a bathroom mishap.

Nonetheless, as economist Kip Viscusi argues in a recent article, the public appears to place a greater premium on preventing deaths by terrorism than some other possible dangers (such as natural disasters). So let's by all means learn from this latest incident and try to do better.  But I hope that grandstanding politicians quickly move on to something else, and that we don't impose another costly and time-consuming layer of security procedures in a fruitless attempt to achieve complete invulnerability.

THOMAS LOHNES/AFP/Getty Images

 

 

JASON SIGGER

6:16 PM ET

December 28, 2009

Risk management

"Nonetheless, as economist Kip Viscusi argues in a recent article, the public appears to place a greater premium on preventing deaths by terrorism than some other possible dangers (such as natural disasters). "

This is a pretty well-established fact - you can also find studies on how people perceive the risk of certain jobs and get that very wrong as well. Although these studies are not entirely original in their findings, it does some good to try to cause people to recognize that their instinctive views on risk just might be wrong.

Worse, the politicians know better, and they still play up to it. They don't care what the right policy decision is as much as making sure that their words (and actions, when that is possible in Congress) sound good to their unknowning constitutents.

 

GRANT

7:01 PM ET

December 28, 2009

In re. to Jason Sigger and

In re. to Jason Sigger and more distantly to Mr. Viscusi, I recall from Hoffman's Inside Terrorism a mention of a sudden drop in Americans flying after a flight to Greece was hijacked despite the improbable nature that their own plane would suffer the same. Humans aren't very logical, I think that this has been established.

On the article itself, accepting that we are vulnerable probably isn't something that an American can do. When you look at the history of the U.S you note that it has a great lack of recent invasions or occupations, which makes the reactions to terrorism that much greater.

 

ANON_ANON

7:25 PM ET

December 28, 2009

Not sure if Viscusi

is the right person to draw upon. We have more control over who boards planes than over whether a natural disaster hits. And a terrorist attack on airlines could once more have an adverse effect, to say the least, on air travel, which impacts commerce, etc., etc. So I get to ask the perfect question for Steve Walt's blog: should the US embrace the more efficient El Al model? El Al's model may not be scalable for a country of 300 million, but it perhaps asking.

 

JANBEKSTER

9:52 PM ET

December 28, 2009

No Watertight Solution

One is unfamiliar with El Al procedures, but one knows that many countries have already and since a very long time, entrusted the security of their airports to special commando units, and actually fly armed commando personnel; albeit in civilian clothes, on their national carriers.

Still, there is no watertight solution, because as the saying goes; the terrorist has to be successful once, while counter-terrorism has to be successful all the time. In addition, the a-symmetry in counter-terrorism warfare, extend to the field of finance, as the methods to fight terror become more expensive by the day, the impliments of terror are becoming exceedigly cheaper by the day.
khairi janbek.paris/france

 

DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

3:26 AM ET

December 29, 2009

Too many lists

While there is certainly no such thing as perfect security, there are some tangible things that the U.S. Government can do to make sure something like this does not happen again...or at least make a similar terrorist operation more difficult for the perpetrator.

First of all, the Department of Homeland Security and the National Counter Terrrorism Center can get rid of some of the lists that are only doing nothing confusing intelligence officials in their work. Currently, Washington has four lists of terror suspects that it relies upon.

First and foremost, there is a general terror database (called TIDE) that has about 500,000 names. Individuals on this list are not flagged per-say, but they are regarded as suspicious characters by intelligence agents both in the United States and throughout the rest of the world.

Secondly, if there is ample reason to believe that an individual poses a moderate risk, he or she is placed on another list controlled by the Terrorist Screening Center. People listed here are required to go through extra security precautions in airports across the country (and the world). According to the U.S. Government, there are around 13,000 members that comprise this list.

The no-fly list only comes into consideration if there is concrete evidence that an individual has terrorist connections. In fact, this is why Abdulmutallab was not flagged during his flight to Detroit.

If you are reading this and thinking, "wow, why all the lists and why all the names," your not the only one. There is simply way to much bureaucracy embedded within the U.S. security establishment. It is as if the United States has learned nothing since the confusion and malaise of the September 11 attacks, One of the reasons why Washington was ill-prepared on that devastating day was because of a less-than transparent system of security.

Why not get rid of a few names? And no, I am not talking about people that are suspected of having ties to AQ or Islamic fundamentalism. I am talking about people who belong to organizations that have no relevance whatsoever in the 21st century.

Members of the Irish Republican Army are still included in the TIDE list; an organization that the U.S. Government does not even regard as a designated terrorist group. Is it really imperative to include groups that were once violent decades ago, but who now resort to peaceful means to address their concerns?

A simple solution for a complex problem.

http://depetris.wordpress.com

 

LT

3:07 PM ET

December 29, 2009

Beware the fear mongers

profs walt and viscusi and Jason are right on in their identification of the problem. It also goes back to politics and the cable new cycle. politicians jump on any chance they can get to talk about defending the country against evil threats and the news media latches onto any minor story and adds graphic images, expert analysis etc and drills it into the american public for days straight. result: politicians win political points and cable gets good ratings.

the psychology involved here is a large part of the reason we can't cut our defense budget easily (no one wants to be seen not being 'strong on defense')

It is sad.

 

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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