Posted By Stephen M. Walt Share

Lots of ink will be spilled and plenty of pixels will be generated in response to yesterday’s special Senate election here in Massachusetts, and I don’t have any deep and novel insights to offer. After all, this is a blog about foreign policy, not domestic politics, and foreign policy appears to have played little or no role in the outcome. 

I also think it is a mistake to read too much into an outcome that could easily have gone the other way for reasons that have nothing to do with the issues and structural forces at work (i.e., had Coakley bothered to campaign in a serious way). The other reason to take a deep breath and relax is the pendulum-like nature of American politics: remember how cool and popular George Bush looked in that flight suit on "Mission Accomplished" day? Remember how hapelss he appeared a couple of years later? One other observation: this election also preserved the surprising and dubious tendency for "liberal" Massachusetts to not elect women to high office. What's up with that?  

That said, I think there are two important lessons that Dems should draw from yesterday’s result, and especially any Dems who happen to live and work at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. The first lesson is the politics didn’t stop on Inauguration Day. The Obama administration ran a great campaign, and did an excellent job of framing issues and defining their candidate throughout 2008. Once in office, however, they turned immediately from politics to policy -- and there is a difference -- while the GOP did exactly the reverse. Instead of continuing to frame issues and establish a clear narrative about what they were accomplishing, the Dems have let the GOP attack machine construct a wholly fictitious but effective narrative that clearly helped Brown in Massachusetts. (Again, the fact that Coakley offered no clear story of her own was a huge liability too.)

The second lesson, and one I’ve harped about before, is about the dangers of trying to do too much, and without a clear strategy. In retrospect, Obama and the Dems would have been better off had they attempted a lot less in the past year, and gotten some of it done a lot quicker. Did Obama really need to jet off to Europe to try to get the Olympics for Chicago, or show up at a climate change summit that wasn’t going to yield an agreement? Was it a good idea to raise everyone’s expectations about Middle East peace, when your team hadn't thought through its strategy and when you didn’t have the political courage to do what was necessary to bring it about? Why talk about getting rid of nuclear weapons when everyone knows that isn’t going to happen for decades? And why betray your own base by doubling down in Afghanistan, largely in the hope of deflecting GOP criticism?

Back last spring, when Obama seemed to be launching a new initiative every other day, political theorist and former Clinton advisor William Galston warned that "If he's right, our traditional notion of the limits of the possible -- the idea that Washington can only handle so much at one time -- will be blown to smithereens. If he's wrong, he may be cruising for a bruising on a lot of things." I think it is way too soon to write the Obama presidency off, but he took a few lumps yesterday. The real question is his administration’s learning curve, and whether he starts replacing the people who’ve given him bad advice over the past year.

Robert Spencer/Getty Images

 

SMCI60652

4:32 PM ET

January 20, 2010

What a joke

Last night should be a great source of embarrasment personally for the President. He had no business being publicly seen next to such an imcompetent candidate. Which, by the way, brings me to the question: How the hell did Coakley get on the ticket!? Such an uninspired and uninspiring candidate to suceed Ted Kennedy? What a disgrace. Is this the value the Democratic Party gives to his legacy? A useless candidate?

Honestly, I think people need to be more forthcoming about the real number of "Democrats" in Congress. People respect activity and vigor so long as it accomplishes something, not a log-jam.

The Professor is right about the spineless-ness on the FP front, but the Dems have pretty much been in lock-step in that area.

He's also spot-on about the domestic front. Why propose such an ambitious hyper-active agenda when you know that the "super-majority" is a completely phony conception? There is no super-majority. De facto what we have is a coalition majority of extremely vulnerable Southern and Midwest Blue Dog Democrats and largely spineless coastal Progressives who've shamed their constituencies.

People ask "Why doesn't Obama just operate under Bush's 51% doctrine?" Well, quite simply, if you do the math and take out all of the vulnerable 'fiscally conservative' Democratic parliamentarians, you fall short of the 51%. This in an environment where a shrunken Republican Senate has grown increasingly uniform in their views. So they can leverage every vote on major bills, while the Dems waste half their time just keeping their own guys own board.

Effective PR has been non-existent and hence a complete disaster. MSNBC can only do so much. People get frustrated when they hear that four times as many people watch FOX daily. And somehow the argument that progressive-minded audiences get their information from more 'sophisticated' sources just isn't that satisfying.

This White House needs to be more honest about their perdicament going forward. Either severely water down your legislative agenda (I don't think anything short of becoming Republicans is going to satisfy the current 'Tea Party' phenomenon), or run to the left and atleast do right by the Progressives who put you in office. Whatever you do, give up this illusion that both of these sides are able to compromise. It's a pipe-dream.

 

DAVID IN DC

4:46 PM ET

January 20, 2010

Reading over the reactions to

Reading over the reactions to yesterday, people's reactions are strongly correlated to their politicial ideology.

Liberal/Democrat - can't read too much into it.
Conservative/Republican - a strong message to Obama.

Obviously Walt, a big Lefty, is no exception. He even goes the extra mile - faulting Obama for being too substantive ("turned from politics to policy") and, conversely, giving the Republicans a backhanded compliment for doing the reverse. Perhaps Walt is talking about Obama's "policy" of attacking media and polling outlets that give him less than fawning coverage or polling organizations that return numbers he doesn't like?

The fact that it "could have easily gone the other way" is an easy way to wave away the fundamental reasons why Brown ever got that close. Yes, many incremental things could have tipped this election either way...once it got tight. However, a 30 point lead wasn't erased in a matter of months and Ted Kennedy's seat lost to the Republicans over a matter of framing policy.

 

VIA FCH

6:58 PM ET

January 20, 2010

"starts replacing the people who’ve given him bad advice"

I entirely agree with you!

On the politicking side, Axelrod and Emanuel are are fault, on national issues, Summers and Geithner. If the former could arguably be credited with Obama's victory, the latter are just an aggravation. And this is to say little of Obama's foreign policy, for there is little to say other than the point you made on doubling down in Afghanistan.

It's time indeed change worked its magic at the White House, as a precondition for its sweeping the land.

 

SCOTTGOOSE

8:50 PM ET

January 20, 2010

What a shame

In my heart of hearts, I want to believe that Obama has an almighty ace-up-his-sleeve to fix our economy, and simply doesn't want to show his hand. Unfortunately, its becoming more and more clear that this brilliant professor is a political neophyte in wayyy too deep. All signs are pointing to the need to change his agenda, and in doing so, he must relegate his awful advisers to the dustbin. If Obama is not truly to blame, than he needs some heads on a platter to prove it, even if they are only scapegoats.

Obama has two choices, inter alia:
1) Run a laughably and politically insipid progressive agenda to appease his grassroots base and perhaps win over disenchanted liberals and left-leaning independents

2) Throw caution to the wind and shift even further to the center, while alienating his base and concomitantly placating those further to the right in the hopes that they will come under his wing.

*** Frankly, both options are terrible, and involve cleaning house in terms of whoever has given him such horrendous advice thus far. I hate to say it, but Brown was onto something. In today's Washington Post opinion column, a writer aptly states that while the democrats are claiming the Republicans are saying No to change, while Brown is saying "Yes, just not that way."

 

BOB SPENCER

8:51 PM ET

January 20, 2010

voters sometimes fake me out

So, the polls show that the voters are angry because they want Obama to stand up to the financial lobby and the health insurance lobby. But then, I see that Brown got a ton of money and other support from Wall Street. I assume that nobody seized upon that.

Also, I saw him say this morning that massichusetts already has a health care program better than the current legislation, so why would he or anyone want to weaken that with the current federal legislation that will cost the voters more? The democrats were in a tough spot there.

 

BOB SPENCER

8:55 PM ET

January 20, 2010

urp

Sorry folks, it's "Massachusetts"

 

SMCI60652

10:00 PM ET

January 20, 2010

hehe

It's ok Bob.

You know it's alright when you do it, but when the Democratic nominee does it, it's not so cool.

 

JO6PAC

9:20 PM ET

January 20, 2010

So

Will the wh see that it's got a problem? I doubt it, bring back Howard Dean and try to talk to progressive and Idy. Stop bailing out the rich.

 

ANON_ANON

6:59 AM ET

January 21, 2010

obama fire people

I suppose to the extent that one considers Obama to have received bad advice over the past year - perhaps as evidenced by the MA election - then yes, Obama ought to fire people. But shouldn't the person doing the firing, or accusatory recriminations, be Coakley?

 

KASSANDRA

9:21 AM ET

January 21, 2010

Saw Dr. Walt on AlJazeera

Saw Dr. Walt on AlJazeera yesterday. He made a good point that Obama inherited a mess from his predecessor and we expect too much in just a year. His analysis on Iran was on point and his two co-panelists agreed that they had nothing more to add, the analysis being that we should move slowly with Iran and not just grab for the baseball bat.

AlJazeera lets their panelists finish their thoughts, and the moderator seldom interrupts. Its a pleasure to see substantive discussion and not just people yelling soundbites, as so often happens on US TV programs. This site also got a mention from the moderator.

 

KENNETH SORENSEN

2:57 PM ET

January 21, 2010

Here is the links

AlJazeeraEnglish January 20, 2010

Part 1 - On Israel and the peace process
(13.39 min)

Part 2 - On Iran and American soft power (8.50 min)

______________
Or watch it on my website:

https://sites.google.com/site/afghanistanthefutilewar/home/stephen-walt-latest/interview

 

KENNETH SORENSEN

3:02 PM ET

January 21, 2010

Here are the links

AlJazeeraEnglish January 20, 2010

Click on the following

Part 1 - On Israel and the peace process (13.39 min)

Part 2 - On Iran and American soft power (8.50 min)

______________
Or watch the interview on my website:

https://sites.google.com/site/afghanistanthefutilewar/home/stephen-walt-latest/interview

 

SMCI60652

1:10 AM ET

January 22, 2010

Too good not to share

I know there are tons of these things, but this one TOTALLY sums up how I kinda feel.

Enjoy!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4aQCiRjvZY

 

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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