Tuesday, April 20, 2010 - 12:15 PM

Back when I started writing this blog, I warned that the idea of preventive war against Iran wasn't going to go away just because Barack Obama was president. The topic got another little burst of oxygen over the past few days, in response to what seems to have been an over-hyped memorandum from Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and some remarks by the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Adm. Michael Mullen, following a speech at Columbia University. In particular, Mullen noted that military action against Iran could "go a long way" toward delaying Iran's acquisition of a weapons capability, though he also noted this could only be a "last resort" and made it clear it was not an option he favored.
One of the more remarkable features about the endless drumbeat of alarm about Iran is that it pays virtually no attention to Iran's actual capabilities, and rests on all sorts of worst case assumptions about Iranian behavior. Consider the following facts, most of them courtesy of the 2010 edition of The Military Balance, published annually by the prestigious International Institute for Strategic Studies in London:
GDP: United
States -- 13.8 trillion
Iran --$ 359
billion (U.S. GDP is roughly 38
times greater than Iran's)
Defense spending
(2008):
U.S. -- $692 billion
Iran -- $9.6 billion (U.S.
defense budget is over 70 times larger than Iran)
Military personnel:
U.S.--1,580,255
active; 864,547 reserves (very well trained)
Iran-- 525,000 active; 350,000
reserves (poorly trained)
Combat aircraft:
U.S. -- 4,090 (includes USAF, USN,
USMC and reserves)
Iran -- 312 (serviceability questionable)
Main battle tanks:
U.S. -- 6,251
(Army + Marine Corps)
Iran -- 1,613
(serviceability questionable)
Navy:
U.S. -- 11 aircraft carriers,
99 principal surface combatants, 71 submarines,
160 patrol boats, plus large auxiliary fleet
Iran -- 6
principal surface combatants, 10 submarines, 146 patrol boats
Nuclear weapons:
U.S. -- 2,702 deployed, >6,000 in
reserve
Iran -- Zero
One might add that Iran hasn't invaded anyone since the Islamic revolution, although it has supported a number of terrorist organizations and engaged in various forms of covert action. The United States has also backed terrorist groups and conducted covert ops during this same period, and attacked a number of other countries, including Panama, Grenada, Serbia, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq (twice), and Afghanistan.
By any objective measure, therefore, Iran isn't even on the same page with the United States in terms of latent power, deployed capabilities, or the willingness to use them. Indeed, Iran is significantly weaker than Israel, which has roughly the same toal of regular plus reserve military personnel and vastly superior training. Israel also has more numerous and modern armored and air capabilities and a sizeable nuclear weapons stockpile of its own. Iran has no powerful allies, scant power-projection capability, and little ideological appeal. Despite what some alarmists think, Iran is not the reincarnation of Nazi Germany and not about to unleash some new Holocaust against anyone.
The more one thinks about it, the odder our obsession with Iran appears. It's a pretty unloveable regime, to be sure, but given Iran's actual capabilities, why do U.S. leaders devote so much time and effort trying to corral support for more economic sanctions (which aren't going to work) or devising strategies to "contain" an Iran that shows no sign of being able to expand in any meaningful way? Even the danger that a future Iranian bomb might set off some sort of regional arms race seems exaggerated, according to an unpublished dissertation by Philipp Bleek of Georgetown University. Bleek's thesis examines the history of nuclear acquisition since 1945 and finds little evidence for so-called "reactive proliferation." If he's right, it suggests that Iran's neighbors might not follow suit even if Iran did "go nuclear" at some point in the future).
Obviously, simple bean counts like the one presented above do not tell you everything about the two countries, or the political challenges that Iran might pose to its neighbors. Iran has engaged in a number of actions that are cause for concern (such as its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon), and it has some capacity to influence events in Iraq and Afghanistan. Moreover, as we have learned in both of these countries, objectively weaker adversaries can still mount serious counterinsurgency operations against a foreign occupier. And if attacked, Iran does have various retaliatory options that we would find unpleasant, such as attacking shipping in the Persian Gulf. So Iran's present weakness does not imply that the United States can go ahead and bomb it with impunity.
What it does mean is that we ought to keep this relatively minor "threat" in perspective, and not allow the usual threat-inflators to stampede us into another unnecessary war. My impression is that Admiral Mullen and SecDef Gates understand this. I hope I'm right. But I'm still puzzled as to why the Obama administration hasn't tried the one strategy that might actually get somewhere: take the threat of force off the table, tell Tehran that we are willing to talk seriously about the issues that bother them (as well as the items that bother us), and try to cut a deal whereby Iran ratifies and implements the NPT Additional Protocol and is then permitted to enrich uranium for legitimate purposes (but not to weapons-grade levels). It might not work, of course, but neither will our present course of action or the "last resort" that Mullen referred to last weekend.
BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images
EXPLORE:AREA STUDIES, MIDDLE EAST, DIPLOMACY, DISASTERS, IRAN, MILITARY, NUKES, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION
Makes a great case for annihilating the top 20% of the regime itself - along with all their precious assets over a long weekend - instead of any short term enrichment interruptus strikes.
I guess Americans do not realize how psychopathic their obsession with make-believe threats looks to the rest of humanity. (The normal peaceable people of this world that is trampled nonstop by a fascist-imperialist monster that calls itself a democracy).
What "threat" exactly could Iran possibly pose to the US, even if it had a nuclear weapon? Even if 20 years down the road Iran has a nuclear weapon AND an intercontinental delivery system capable of hitting the US, would that really be a "threat?"
No. Not to any sane person. Iran could never attack the US. it would mean instant nuclear annihilation.
So what threat is there? The only real "threat" that Iran poses (or Iraq, or Serbia, or North Korea, or any of the countries that have been attacked without provocation by the US in just the space of a few years) is that these countries do not wish to bow to the diktat of the US World Empire.
That is the only possible "threat" these countries have ever posed to the US, their desire for freedom. If you want freedom then you are a threat to the US monster.
It is really too bad that even progressive writers such as Mr. Walt engage in this pathological the discussion of "threats." It goes to show how sick the US society is that there is no room in the public debate for a bit of simple sanity.
The fact is that the US people have come to love the military monstrosity their leaders have created and cheer on with pure and simple blood lust as this monster is unleashed against country after country without provocation.
They delude themselves with crazy talk about threats, when in fact they have the least real threats of any country in the world. What a sick country and people. I hope you can invent a pill to take for this sickness, but I doubt it.
Iran has invaded nobody in 280 years, has no nukes but needs nuclear energy to conserve their oil resources, has signed the NPT and has nothing to gain by attacking anybody with much to lose. Israel, in contrast, has invaded and occupied all 4 of its neighbors more than once in its brief 62-year history, illegally occupies, confiscates and blockades Palestinian territory, has 200-300 undeclared nukes, has refused to sign the NPT, continuously threatens to attack Iran, and pressures the U.S. to do so. So where is the real threat to peace in the Middle East?
So, this begs the question: What would constitute a threat to US interests? Is there a % of GDP that would make a country a threat? Number of active duty military, number of tanks, of nukes? What are your criteria that would make a country a threat?
Answering your questions as any realist would
1) Is there a % of GDP that would make a country a threat?
Yes. Wealth is the foundation for a strong military. As countries get richer, they translate that wealth into military might, and they typically expand when there is a large regional power-imbalance. That's a fairly obvious assertion, cases in point: France, the U.S., Germany (twice), the Soviet Union, and watch China.
Of course this does not apply to Iran because the Middle East is a multi-polar region. Iran does not even pose a threat to its nextdoor neighbors, let alone the United States.
2) Number of active duty military, number of tanks?
Yes. If a country has significant military superiority it is likely to use it.
So, what is the % of GDP that would constitute a threat to our interests? The ratio of armed forces? And, under this reasoning, the EU is a threat to the US because it has roughly equal GDP, or not a threat because it has a small ratio of armed forces? How about the Soviet Union, which has a small % of GDP relative to US, but a large ratio of armed forces? Was that a threat? Going by rough figures, Iran has the GDP of Columbia and Azerbijan: so, it would roughly be the same threat to us as them? And the same importance in world affairs? And Iran's military is considered to be roughly the size of Egypt's or Mexico's? Same threat level as those two to our interests?
should read, the Soviet Union has a small % of GDP relative to the US...
had
Blue,
pls read Steve's article, before going Postal with your keyboard........
"Obviously, simple bean counts like the one presented above do not tell you everything about the two countries, or the political challenges that Iran might pose to its neighbors. Iran has engaged in a number of actions that are cause for concern (such as its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon), and it has some capacity to influence events in Iraq and Afghanistan. Moreover, as we have learned in both of these countries, objectively weaker adversaries can still mount serious counterinsurgency operations against a foreign occupier. And if attacked, Iran does have various retaliatory options that we would find unpleasant, such as attacking shipping in the Persian Gulf. So Iran's present weakness does not imply that the United States can go ahead and bomb it with impunity. "
GDP and population make up the basic power potential of a country, but obviously, you also need to have a look at how much money is actually being spent on military expenditures and how much active personnel and equipment a nation actually has (as is being done in the article). The Soviet Union did have a small GDP relative to the coalition arrayed against it, but it mobilized a much greater share of it for defense purposes and was thus able to achieve a parity in armaments (up until the eighties, the Soviet conventional forces were actually considered to be superior to NATO). Needless to say, we now know this mobilization wasn't sustainable in the long term, and its huge military expenditures were slowly eating away at the economic base of the Soviet Union.
For those above who are not the swiftest deer in the forest or the sharpest knives in the drawer, let me rephrase my cheeky comments above:
al-Queda, circa 2000: GDP: less than 1% of our GDP; military expenditures: less than 1% of our military expenditures; # of men under arms, # of tanks, fighter jets, etc.: less than 1% of ours.
So, using Walt's reasoning, al Queda was not a serious threat to the US on Sept. 10, 2001.
You can agree or disagree with whether Iran is a serious threat to our interests (and completely ignore our reliance on oil if you'd like), but Walt's analysis is just complete silliness masquerading as realism.
Blue, do you realize there's a difference between a nation like Iran and a terrorist organization like Al-Quaeda? One has visible targets that need to be defended in the event of an armed confrontation, and organized military forces serving this purpose, while the other relies on stealth and evading US power. Iran's military forces can (and would) be targeted with high accuracy if a war should ever break out, its cities can be occupied or even destroyed, its government officials can be forced from power. You know, kind of similar to what happened to Iraq? The possibility of this happening, and the ease with which the US could do it, serves as a deterrent against any direct challenge to US interests. Al-Queda, on the other hand, has nothing to defend and little to lose, but this necessarily also puts a limit on what they can actually accomplish and the degree to which they can threaten US interests. Have they gotten any closer to establishing a new caliphate? Arguably not. Can they at least force the US out of the Middle East? No. Can they threaten the existence of Israel? No, and they haven't even tried. Can they cause enough casualties among US citizens to cow it into submission? Not likely, and further attacks would rather provoke more violent responses. A small and determined group of terrorists can certainly constitute a threat to individual US citizens, but not to the nation as a whole or its interests abroad. It would take another state with considerable material resources to do that, and Prof. Walt is simply arguing is that Iran is not that nation.
@ BLUE
Regardless of any sharp knives, elevators that do not go to the top or not, or any other such silly sayings, I would very much like you to provide ONE single item of proof that Al Quaida did indeed carry out the attacks of 9/11. Just ONE item and without regurgitating all the crap that was presented as proof by the criminal junta that ruled Washington at that time. Also, why does the FBI NOT list Ben Laden on their most wanted list. Believing that a bunch of men living in caves half a world away were able to carry out such a well coordinated and sophisticated attack, stretches the bounds of credulity.
I have equally lost any semblence of respect for Walt when he claims that Hammas and Hizb Allah are "terrorist" organizations, when both were created as a direct result of invasion by the mass murdering zionist entity that insinuated itself in the Middle East and Palestine, and under International Law, have every right to take up arms against the occupiers and to defend it. How utterly disgusting of him and other arrogant Americans to continue to refer to them as "terrorists". But then again, we have the good example of the French terrorists in the second world war to go by. Also the Greek terrorists who faught againt the Nazi occupation of their land. Oooops, sorry, those were Christian Europeans and ergo NOT terrorists but "freedom fighters". My mistake!
And by the , Walt, Iran has NOT invaded another country, nor threatened to do so, for at least 300 years and NOT just since the revolution that brought the present government into power.... A revolution fomented by the anger that perculated against the American puppet, the Shah, who was installed by the Americans after they engineerd the downfall of the democratically elected government in Iran of 1953.
Your analysis, Walt, is biased and sophomoric to say the least.
I wish Iran really did get the nuclear bombs everyone accuses them of wanting to aquire. At least then all the hypocrites gathering for blood, would back off a country that has done NOTHING to harm any other country. Hardly something that can be said for the murderous Americans, French, British, et al, with all their bloody wars, occupations and thousands of nuclear weaopons.
BLUE, regardless of % of GDP, any country has the right to defend itself against the bully in the school yard. Iran is NO exception even though they have never and will never pose a threat to the USA. Its the other way around. get off your hysterical and revolting American exceptionalism arrogance.
Iran is constantly accused of ominous intentions from its (very modest) support of Hezbollah and Hamas. Both have arisen as inevitable resistance movements - legal under international law - against Israeli invasion and occupation, so why shouldn't they receive support from somewhere while Israel's military monster, its illegal and suffocating occupation and blockade, and its war crimes are massively subsidized by the generosity of U.S. taxpayers?
It's pretty naive to accept the official story that 9/11 was independently pulled off by 19 amateur Arabs, circumventing US and international intelligence and US air defenses designed for decades to repel an infinitely more daunting Soviet attack. In fact, although the precise methods will never be known due to massive and diffuse COINTEL as well as other concealment devices, they could not possibly have accomplished this without assistance by forces within the US government.
Disregarding the many questionable theories, some facts are unambiguously known. Foreknowledge provided the government from at least 15 foreign intelligence agencies has been established, and Israeli foreknowledge is abundantly documented. Who scheduled the hijack exercises at precisely the same time to confuse air traffic controllers, and who arranged for defensive aircraft to be exercising elsewhere that morning? Why did the administration adamantly resist a 9/11 commission, then insist on appointing the commissioners, then resist subpoenas, and then heavily redact documents when forced to provide them under subpoena?
To many of us their guilt or complicity has been obvious from the beginning but the COINTEL including planted theories that are easily discredited (e.g., no plane hit the Pentagon) have made it impossible to identify the perpetrators and method necessary for indictment and successful prosecution. Those who know the truth would obviously be among the guilty or terrified to reveal it under threat of certain death.
UGH. You people are worse than the birthers.
Steve,
you say:
"One might add that Iran hasn't invaded anyone since the Islamic revolution, although it has supported a number of terrorist organizations and engaged in various forms of covert action. The United States has also backed terrorist groups and conducted covert ops during this same period, and attacked a number of other countries, including Panama, Grenada, Serbia, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq (twice), and Afghanistan.
By any objective measure, therefore, Iran isn't even on the same page with the United States in terms of latent power, deployed capabilities, or the willingness to use them."
That is right, and Israel has attacked: Gaza, Syria and Lebanon just in the last 3 years.
Oh, and Israel has not signed the NPT and has clandestine nukes.
On Iran -- Director of National Intelligence says:
Annual Threat Assessment:
http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20100202_testimony.pdf
“We continue to assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that bring it closer to being able to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so. We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.”
And the "721" report:
http://www.dni.gov/reports/2009_721_Report.pdf
"…we do not know whether Iran will eventually decide to produce nuclear weapons.”
Thus to the best of the US IC’s knowledge the Iranian government has NOT decided to make nuclear weapons.
Indeed. Why all the hype?
Axis of evil: Defense Contractor Money and AIPAC.
I don't know if it's just laziness now that he's gotten comfortable with a certain level of academic prestige, but Walt's posts have become a joke. He uses the reasoning and logic of a 16 year old girl from Orange County who just took her first probability & statistics class. I'm sure he'll claim this is realism at the core, or some BS like that, but Walt's credibility has been quickly dwindling from his last over the years and I think it's time to assign him to a blog for the National Enquirer. FP should only employ grown ups.
If you just came to hurl insults — a la a "16-year-old girl from Orange County" — go elsewhere. Walt's points are debatable; the point of this board is to debate them, not to engage in puerile name-calling.
Who should FP hire to blog then?
Given your criticism of Walt, who are some of the "grown ups" that FP should employ to blog?
On a side note, it seems to me that the gentlemen most commonly referred to as "grown ups" in the past decade are usually those of Walt's realist persuasion: James Baker, Brent Scowcroft, etc.
Dr. Walt, it would be interesting to have a guest post from Caitlin Talmadge on the subject of Iranian threats to both the United States and the United States' interests in the Middle East. Her "Closing Time" article was great.
Point taken. I admit that the "16 year old girl" was unnecessary. I usually keep a cool head and never throw insults into policy discussion but I guess I've just been a little frustrated and dumbfounded by Walt's articles recently. I always had a great deal of respect for him as one of my best professors on U.S. foreign policy revered Walt, studied under him, and had us study Walt's theories in depth. I guess that's why I've been so frustrated with him. I find it irritating when intellectuals, merely for the sake of distinguishing themselves from other intellectuals, float theories that are simplified and short-sighted (and theories which they often don't even believe themselves). That being said, I should have limited my own criticisms to the substantive points of contention. Though Pippon can take a hike with his Google search suggestion and his lame head in the mud comment. I'm well aware of who Walt is and acknowledge his "academic prestige" in my first post. As I said, I just think he may have gotten a little too comfortable with it and no longer puts the same effort into his postings because he's secured his spot as the academic who calls out those he sees fit to be labeled as fear-mongers and bravely stands up to big bad Israel. He's found his niche and now feels obligated to cater to his loyal "realists" and lead the charge.
I have a great deal of respect for Baker, Scowcroft, and the "realist" school. Nevertheless, I think Walt has strayed away from that course and tradition more recently.
Oh and I didn't hear Ippon or Mohair crying when Walt was throwing Ad Hominem accusations at Satloff. It wasn't problematic when he was questioning Satloff's loyalty to the US based on little more than a hunch, but I guess he was just being a bold "realist". Bravo!
You, EW66, said that so well. I'd love to have read similar comments from 70 years ago, when I'm sure "journalists" opined that "Germany isn't a threat to the US", nor is Italy, nor Japan.
At least they came to their senses when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor.
The enemy we have in the Middle East is NOT one that we have faced before. We cannot reason with radicals who have no fear of death and are willing to sacrifice women, children, and anything else to achieve what they believe that Allah wants; yea, demands. And people like Walt want to continue the belief that we can negotiate and reason with these enemies. We cannot! They have proven time and time again that they are not interested in that.
And it's fine to compare our GDP, military outlay, etc. to theirs and claim that they are no threat. Having a nuke is a great equalizer. Puts them right up there with the Big Boys.
I agree that Iran is not a threat to the U.S. However, Iran is a threat to the balance of power in the Middle East, which makes Iran a threat to American interests there (in other words: oil).
I disagree with Professor Walt, however, in that open talks will yield any real progress. Iran is a regime that needs an outside threat in order to stay in power; take away that threat and it loses all legitimacy in the eyes of the people who still support it. Befriending the U.S. undermines such a strategy.
From Iran's perspective, it's quite logical to play the nuclear card. If the U.S. were in the same geopolitical position as Iran is, we too would seek nuclear power (or at least pretend to), if we did not already have such capability.
Nonetheless, attacking Iran would create chaos and instability in the Middle East for decades - especially in Iraq and Afghanistan – something the U.S. does not want.
Not to be nit-picky, but I think Prof. Walt meant insurgency when he sais: "can still mount serious counterinsurgency operations against a foreign occupier." But perhaps I am confused on the term.
Arab states do not fear Iran's nuclear program
Arab states do not fear Iran's nuclear program:
http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=MTM0MTU3MDA1OA==
I'm Sorry, But You're Dreaming
You actually believe that Arab states (namely Egypt & Saudi Arabia) do not fear Iran's nuclear program because you pulled one article that says Kuwaiti's believe that all states have a right to peaceful nuclear energy? Riiiiiiight.
IPPON,
I could list dozens of articles that demonstrate where Egypt and Saudi Arabia stand on this issue. Indeed you can find several recent articles on this website from experts and commentators (on both sides of the political spectrum) who cite Arab fears over Iranian proliferation as a given. But I'd rather try to explain it to you myself.
The relationship between Sunni and Shiite has been riddled with conflict and distrust on both sides since...well, just about after the death of Muhammad. Egypt and Saudi Arabia have remained extremely wary of Iranian encroachment for some time (read Robert Baer for info on this). Evidence of this is out there all the time but largely flows under the radar, like last year when Egypt busted a 24 man cell of Iranian IRGC agents. And to the South, Yemen has to deal with the Houthi rebels who Iran also has ties with. That's also why all three of these countries are boosting up defense spending (especially in air power).
U.S. policy mirrors this same notion. Gates and Clinton have both outlined their plan several times for containing Iran largely by relying on our nuclear umbrella for the protection of our allies. They specifically cite Egypt and Saudi Arabia being the key to this strategy by coordinating our defense systems with theirs. Both of these nations are well aware of the fact that Iran constitutes a much greater threat to their interests than the U.S. does. In fact, Egypt and Saudi Arabia fear destabilization much more from Iran having nukes than Israel having them. This is also far from a new point of view. The majority of scholars, politicians, and intelligence officials who have attempted to simulate and/or predict what would happen if Israel bombed Iranian nuclear facilities have said that Egypt and Saudi Arabia would both criticize Israel's actions publicly, but would applaud them in private.
Even those who believe that Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon would be a positive thing for U.S. foreign policy quickly list firm support from Egypt and Saudi Arabia as one of the chief benefits. In fact, you can even find some of this in this very comments section (see SMCI's comment below).
As for your claim that Israel is the most belligerent nation in the middle east, well that just says a lot. Most notably how out of touch with reality you are. But still, wouldn't you care to back that up or provide some evidence (maybe list an article?) like you so bravely defended Sir mixalott for doing? No. In fact, you haven't made one substantive post in this commentary with a shred of evidence to back it up. Instead, you've written 2-3 sentence critiques of other posts. Being wrong is never fun, but being wrong and a hypocrite must really suck. Best of luck
IPPON: The Prolific Commentator
HAHA. IPPON, I’m convinced there’s something wrong with you. You’re either illiterate or just have a severe learning disorder.
A) You didn’t argue against one thing I said.
What I said didn’t originate from “something I heard somewhere”. I didn’t think it was necessary to post 100 links (I noticed you didn’t either) because anyone who follows the news and policy discussions is aware of these things I listed. It’s not stuff that I just “want us (ie YOU) to believe”, it’s well documented. Please don’t say “us” as if the majority of other posters are as ill-informed as you on these issues. I’m sure the majority of them are aware of these things. The fact that you refrained from disputing any of it shows that you either have no counterargument, or (and I’m beginning to believe this), that you’re simply unaware of these things, in which case there’s almost no point in arguing against your ill-informed and amateurish knowledge of what goes in the middle east.
B) I accused Sir Mixxalot of posting just one brief article that was in no way central or demonstrative of Arab sentiment in the Gulf. He may not be wrong on how the Kuwaitis feel, but it’s certainly not representative of the title of his post. I intentionally avoided listing a host of articles because I don’t think that’s what the commentary section is for. The difference is, I accused Sir Mixxalot of providing insufficient evidence for what his title proclaimed, which should require a decent amount of evidence because it strays from the conventional wisdom. I don’t think he needs more article postings, only that the one he did post was unconvincing at best. You on the other hand, criticize me for not posting article links while not providing ANY yourself. You claim your statements are based on “hard facts “ and “not some article or opinion piece” but continue to omit any “hard facts”. You sir, are the hypocrite and are venturing into the absurd. I also assumed you’d be aware of the things I listed and not falsely dismiss them as hearsay. That’s laughable.
C) It would have had a little more respect for your opinion if you’d made an attempt to dispute the claims on Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Yemen feeling the dangerous Iranian encroachment or the position of both the State Department and the DOD that I mentioned. You didn’t dispute the position held by those who suggest that Iran’s acquiring a bomb would be a good thing either. Please, try to counter something.
Also, your classifying the conflict that has existed by Sunnis and Shiites as “disagreements” is a joke. Spare me the euphemisms next time you decide to show how much of an ignoramus you really are.
I can’t hold your hand through this. I don’t intend to spend my time forwarding you url’s so that you can begin to educate yourself on the issues. I could easily dismiss everything you said as hearsay and something that goes on in your head. I guess I just want to know, are you unaware of the things I listed? That’s the only way I could understand your dismissing them as hearsay and stuff that goes on in my head. And just a reminder, EVERYTHING you've posted as of yet remains a 2-3 sentence childish criticism that makes no attempt to list counterpoints or anything substantive of that nature. Please take a moment to think long and hard before your next post. Or better yet, venture outside of FP.com and start reading up on current events. Who knows, it might make you look a little more informed on later commentaries. Again, good luck, I know you've got an uphill battle on your hands but I won't lose faith just yet.
IPPON: The Commentary Crusader
HAHA. I expected this retreat back into the vague assertions and crying you’ve been doing. It’s funny that you accuse me of whining. Reread my posts and yours and ask yourself who’s whining. Don’t put yourself in the same category as Walt. Making a joke about Walt and calling you childish IS very different. And by the way, please look up the definition of hypocrite when you have a minute. I’m a bit surprised that you still refuse to put forth any substantive arguments despite my prodding and pleading for you to do so. I'd (and I’m sure Kayl would agree) rather be accused of being unoriginal than saying absolutely NOTHING as you continue to do. I’m sure it makes you feel special when you throw out words like “superficial” when you critique other arguments. Yes, I saw Brzezinski on Fox news last year too. I’ll take your hollow response as yet another admission that you’re completely incapable of formulating a response. However, I would’ve at least appreciated a response to my question as to whether or not you’re aware of the things I listed earlier. That would have done a lot to clarify why you’re responses are so pathetic. It’s gotten to that point where you’ve already demonstrated beyond any measure of doubt that I’m arguing with a complete fool and you’ve now retreated back to your original complaint that I’m not being civil enoungh. Awwww...stop whining!!! Anyway, I’ll leave you to it. And better luck next time.
@ EW66;
The ONLY thing Egypt and Suadi Arabia have to fear from Iran is the fear its autocratic and dictatorial leaders have from being ousted by their own people in a popular mass uprising that would emulate the overthrow of the equally vicious Shah in Iran back in 1978. To equate that fear of a couple of dictators for their own personal fear with Egypt, or SA, and to transpose that into an existential threat to both nations, is ludicrous to say te least.
And the only fear the Western nations and in particular, the USA, have to fear from Iran is that it might become simply too powerful for it to be brought into line and "tamed" by the USA as a pupper country similar to all the other Arab countries that cow tow to American domination. The USA simply cannot allow any nation there to be independent, and that is the heart of the matter.
And Israel is, has been and will continue to be the most murderous "country" in the Middle East. Its litany of crimes against Palestine and the Palestineans is legion and well documented (If you insist that I provide dates and names of places to support that, simply as me to and I will.) Its invasion of neighbouring countries on several occasions is also well documented. Its present occupation and continued theft of what was left of Palestine and of the Syrian Golan, is equally there for all to see.
Israel was/is and will always be an illegal and illegitimate creation according to both the UN charter and International law: It was "created" by the General assemply when it recommended that Palestine be partioned (due to heavy pressure on dozens of nations in the general Assemply by the USA to vote for partition) into an Arab and a Jewish state. The GA has NO power to create anything. All what the GA can do according to the UN charter, is to make recommendations. The security is the body that can either implement or reject the GA's recommendations. The Security Council NEVER ever approved that recommendation. Israel immediately declared their "independence" upon the recommendation of partition. Ergo, Israel is illegitamite and illegal by any yardstick one would wish to use. not to mention that the partition plan gave the overwhelming minorty Jews in Palestine 54% of the land when they only owned between 4 and 6% of it.
There is not a SINGLE town or city in Israel that at one time was not an Arab town and city. Israel destroyed some 1,700 villages and towns after they ethnically cleansed Palestine of its owners. This also is fact and I would be happy, at the risk of boring everyone here, to list all the names of the towns and villages destroyed.
The ONLY exestential threat to the Middle East, and now to the world, is Israel itself with its racist to the bone policies, its apartaid policies, its nuclear arsenal and its continued arrogant disregard of some 70 SC resolutions and of International law.
I do not subscribe to the notion that occupation, illegal acts of terrorism and theft become legitimate or mellow with age like wine.
Israel is a criminal entity and some day mentioning "Zionism" might be as repulsive as mentioning Nazism. They are both odious and ned to be eradicated.
@ EW66
Here is just one quote from one of the heros of that murderous and illegal state of Israel. I can provide you with dozens more from their top leaders indicating their inyentions and admitting their crimes. Quotes you will NEVE ever see in the western press:
"Jewish villages were built in the place of Arab villages. You do not even know the names of these Arab villages, and I do not blame you because geography books no longer exist. Not only do the books not exist, the Arab villages are not there either. Nahlal arose in the place of Mahlul; Kibbutz Gvat in the place of Jibta; Kibbutz Sarid in the place of Huneifis; and Kefar Yehushua in the place of Tal al-Shuman. There is not a single place built in this country that did not have a former Arab population." Moshe Dayan, address to the Technion, Haifa, reported in Haaretz, April 4, 1969.
How do you people justify these gross crimes of that Jewish nation, with a straight face?
It is NOT Iran that is the problem. It is most definitely that cancer in the Middle East, Israel.
Walt continues to skirt the real issue, and that is Iran's
capacity and interest to wage war.
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Since the founding of the Revolutionary Islamic Republic, Iran's leaders have repeatedly followed the late Imam Khomenei's platform on a world without Israel.
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It has backed that stance through word and deed, however, it was not until the past decade, when Iran accelerated its nuclear weapons program that the goal to destroy Israel could be come a reality.
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It is Iran's threat, coupled with its alliance with Syria (which hosts(ed?) its own nuclear weapons program, and the control of Hizballah, that raises the threat level.
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But this is only one part of the equation. Iran, for all of Walt's musings, has not been a single political entity for its entire history. Governments have come and gone. Indeed, the previous political entity, ruled by Shah Palhevi, actually was allied with Israel. It is not historical Iran which concerns the world, but its current incarnation, that of the Revolutionary Islamic Rebublic, which over the past year has seen greater control shift from the ruling Mullah's to a growing military dictatorship under its own Revolutionary Guard. It is within this context, not some idealized view of Cyrus the Great, that Iran must be viewed.
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During the era of the current Republic, Iran has entered into several military adventures, not just against Israel, but the neighboring states in the Persian Gulf.
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To that end, the question of What Iran will do once it has nuclear weapons is the question, and given its domestic and foreign stances, there are reasonable concerns to world leaders.
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It is Iran's ability to wreck havoc with the energy markets, and its desire to push its revolutionary ideal that raises the magnitude of the challenge.
On Iran -- Director of National Intelligence says:
Annual Threat Assessment:
http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20100202_testimony.pdf
“We continue to assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that bring it closer to being able to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so. We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.”
And the "721" report:
http://www.dni.gov/reports/2009_721_Report.pdf
"…we do not know whether Iran will eventually decide to produce nuclear weapons.”
@ JACOB BLUES
I will tell you what Iran will do the very minute they are able to build a crude nuclear bomb: They will immediately deliver it to either Israel or the USA and then sit back and wait the few minutes it would take Israel and the USA to retaliate with a shower of thermo nuclear weapons that would obliterate them in seconds.
Yes indeed my deep thinker and confused obfuscator..... that is what Iran will definitely do!
It never ceases to amaze me how bullies, mass murderers and rogue nations continue to point fingers at other nations and to ascribe intentions to them that have NO basis in reality and merely reflect their own fear of what another nation could/can possibly do to them, as a reflection of how they themselves are thinking and what they are capable of doing.
A thief always thinks that everyone else is also a thief and attacks the other as a thief to be, when its all in their sick mind and in their own hegemonic nature.
Professor Walt,
Most of the statistics you gave were irrelevant. No (serious) intellectuals or politicians are advocating a full-scale conventional war with Iran. Even if they were, there would be absolutely no way their constituents would allow for such a war to take place. Rather, what I think most level-headed believers in "Iran action" would propose would be some sort of air raid in which the Iranian's nuclear capabilities would be reduced or completely destroyed.
The threat from Iran is not great now but it increases exponentially with their acquisition of any type of nuclear or dirty bomb. The ease in which they could slip one of these into Lebanon and from there into Israel is something I think you seriously underestimate or ignore.
Regards,
Liberalartskids
Hard military assessments isn't the issue here. The issue is primarily political, concerning oil, nuclear power, support for terrorist organizations, Iraq and how both Iran and the U.S are viewed by the world. It isn't very likely that either nation will choose to go to war, but both will continue to compete in the Middle East arena.
Of course it should always be remembered by policy makers that Iran, short of somehow threatening nuclear war, is in no way capable of threatening the territorial or political integrity of the U.S. However all that means is that Americans are not in danger and that the military is not the best tool to use as much as the CIA and the State dept (and the occasional arm sale).
Would be best for Iran to go nuclear
This post, combined with Aaron David Miller's about the "False Religion of the Two State Solution" and Marc Lynch's "Weak Presidential Card" all point to one thing for me: Iran's going nuclear may just be the best thing to happen US foreign policy in a long time.
It'd boost defense contracts to the Gulf, force Israel to take the issue of settlements seriously as part of a grand push in the peace process and Palestinian statehood, and place the Arab States firmly in the US' corner for a long time to come.
Not sure about Walt's point here, but ...
His larger point is well taken. How on earth is Iran even vaguely a threat to us? I realize there are elements within our government that get itchy if we're not bombing someone, and Iran (as with Saddam's Iraq) has been in the crosshairs for 30 years now.
A nuclear Iran wouldn't be much more of a threat, for that matter. Ahmenijad may be nutty, but he's not insane; his leadership is perched on very shaky ground at all times. Ethnic Arabs in the south, ethnic Azeris in the north, and Afghan immigrants all have their reasons for despising him and the mullahs. I agree with SMC—Iran getting the bomb may have some ironic advantages for us, but even once it happens, Iran will use it for symbolic value alone. No one is going to do more to Israel than lob the occasional few mortars across the border, and even if something larger were attempted, Israel has proven quite capable of shutting down such threats itself. Far, far better than the US has been, to put it mildly.
Although i agree with your article 100% for i know for a fact that we do have the best Naval Forces and Military in the world. So why the bull and why sweat Iran. I have always said maybe our president should try talking to Iran. Years ago when the Iranian leader was speaking at the UN , Bush should have went to the UN and put Irans leader on the spot, no where for him to run with his rhetoric. But in my mind that was a missed oppurtunity based on arrogance, which gets you no where. In ways i can understand why the leader of Iran is talking trash. Have we looked on a map, we are fighting two wars with the country of Iran right smack in the middle literally. Iraq is on the left and Afghanistan is on the right. How would the US react if China or Russia were fighting both Canada and Mexico and we were in the middle.
Some glaring mistakes in the article and other misconceptions
-Iran has little power projection capability. Unfortunately it does: it can choke Western economies by blockading the Straights of Hormuz, destroy all the progress the US has made in Iraq by unleashing waves of suicide bombers and reactivating its militias, it can pound Israel's airbases and urban centres using Hizbollah, Iran's missiles will be able to reach the US by 2015, and it has succeeded in building not insignificant spheres of influence in West Africa, the Balklans, and even in Latin America.
-Defense budgets offer a helpful indicator in determining threats: they may do between powers with similar modus operandi in conventional warfare, but not in asymetric conflicts, or ones driven by religious fanatics or nuclear threats. The US has learnt this in Afghanistan and Iraq, and India has in relation to Kashmir, where Pakistan's nuclear umbrella has allowed it to be incredibly provocative despite India's overwhelming conventional and nuclear superiority. Al-Qaeda spent $500,000, sacrificed 19 operatives and operated from impoverished Afghanistan to kill 3000 Americans and inflict some $22bn of economic damage. Iran was also involved in the bombings of the US marine barracks in Beirut, which were carried out by 4 suicide commandos but compelled the Regan administration to withdraw US forces from that country.
-Iran has little ideological appeal: correct on some levels as only 12% of the world's Muslims are shi'ite, but theology is not the issue here, it's common hatreds. Due to it's anti-American stance, Iran has appealed to and cooperated with Al-Qaeda (a Sunni group), FARC (an infidel group), Hamas (a Sunni group), Syria (ruled by a clique of heretical Alawite Muslims) and is courting less serious anti-American firebrands such as Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales (both infidels).
-The dangers of a regional nuclear arms race are slim. Wrong, Saudi Arabia is working on a nuclear plant, despite being the world's largest producer of oil, Mubarak has rebuffed the US offer of a nuclear umbrella as "not sufficient", and the lack of reactive proliferation since 1945 was centred around the strategic relations outside of the Middle East. The Middle East is notoriously unstable and is now more technically competent than ever. Also Arab Gulf states have good reason to fear Iran and its terror proxies operating in the Hijaz and Yemen, and to doubt the effectiveness of a US nuclear umbrella: with Iranian missiles capable of reaching NYC by 2015, would the US trade NYC and Washington for Riyadh?
-Iran is not a modern-day incarnation of Nazi Germany. No, but it is similar, the main difference is that it frames its quest for world mastery in religious rather than racial contexts: in it's ideology non- monotheists do not have souls, and Muslims are destined to rule the world as the "Master people". If you don't believe me, then just look up statements from Khomeini, Khameini and A-jad about the universal mission of Islam to conquer the world and force it to submit. Iranian leaders have so far sent "invitations to submit" to Mikael Gorbachov (then leader of the USSR), Angela Merkel and George Bush (in 2006)
-Iran would not attack the US as it's ambitions are regional: WRONG! It is likely to attack the US precisely because of it's initially regional ambitions. It's leadership believes (correctly) that the illegitimate regimes which govern most of the Muslim world are dependent on the US for survival, eliminating the US, or forcing its withdrawl from the Middle East would cause it's network of regional lackeys to collapse like a house of cards. Iranian leaders have repeatedly dreamed of "a world without America"- they even hosted a conference with this title in Tehran in 2008.
-Iran can be deterred. Very unlikely. Many Iranian leaders do not care about Iran, (see statements from Khomeini whose spirit is very much alive, Khameini, and Raf-san jani- considered a "moderate in the West") they care about the Islamic revival. Destroying the US with nuclear weapons would invite a crushing response against Iran, but not the rest of the Muslim world,which would survive (except some regions in the Gulf States which would be affected by the radioactive fall out from a nuclear war). Islam would therefore benefit from such a war.
-The US has never tried to "talk to Iran about the issues which bother it". Wrong. Every US administration form Carter to Obama has tried to "reach out to Iran". Regan and Clinton offered security guarantees, Bush offered material incentives, and Obama has tried "respectful dialogue". They all failed. Why? Because, as mentioned above, Iranian leaders do not care about the material well-being of Iran beyond its ability to be able to wage Jihad. What use would spare parts for its Boeing airliners, foreign-enriched uranium and US made drill parts to reinvigorate Iran's ailing oil industry have in comparison with the ability to wage nuclear genocide for Allah?
-US activities in Iraq and Afghanistan have "compelled" Iran to seek nuclear weapons in self-defense. Wrong. Iran's nuclear program began in the late 80s.
-Internal regime change will eventually offer a safe path to Iran's normalization of relations with the West and the removal of any nuclear threat. Nope. Any Iranian nukes will undoubtedly be placed under the administration of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in the unlikely event of a successful popular revolution which brings a more moderate regime to power, the nukes will be in the hands of a hard-core of fanatics whose sole purpose to to further the spread of Islam, not to obey an "apostate" moderate leader. Messianic beliefs concerning the return of the "Hidden Imam" who will only appear after a mighty clash of civilizations are common amongst this elite group of fanatics.
-Jews have deliberately overstated the threat to the US so as to enlist American support in their feud with Iran. No. If you look at the philosophy of the Iranian regime, the US is the "Great Satan" whose destruction will solve all of the problems of the Islamic world by ensuring Muslim unity which will facilitate Islam's ultimate aim to conquer the world. Israel is peripheral to them, it is the "little Satan". Harassing Israel has been a good way to polish their pan-Islamic credentials, but the Mullas and IRGs who rule Iran have much greater ambitions than a tiny patch of land in Israel/Palestine. There aim is to change the world, and if they are not stopped, they will soon have the means to do so.
@ JEWISH BRIT:
I have seldome come across such well reasoned mental gymnastics. I am not sure were to start to refute all your assertions. Suffice to say that I am grateful for you in providing me a nice "laugh" even though I realise how sad someone like you is.
Oh, by the way, is it possible for you to give us an equally lucid explanation of the muderous exploits of the illegal and bloody apartied and racist to the bone, state of Israel and what it has meant to the Middle East since its illegal implantation and creation on the dead body of Palestine? It would be interesting to read your reasoned analysis of its illegal creation, its constant attacks on it neighbours, its ethnic leansing, its horrendous and inhuman 44 year occupation of what is left of Palestine, its disregard for international law and its racist to the bone/vicious policies.. All this as a begger state and a state that steals all of its technology from the USA and other Western nations. Do you think you can do that?
It would really be nice to see your take on that and how that also relates to your amazing analysis on Iran and other Middle east actors.
black swans and power projection
Perhaps it should be reconsidered whether Iran hasn't the ability to project power with any measure of efficacy. If nothing else, the degree to which the world is becoming anti-American makes their willingness to nose-thumb us cuter.
Further, the degree to which narratives have to align for them to be relevant might be overstated. Case-in-point - al Qaeda; logrolling coalitions matter! And though the sanctions haven't been pushed through, if China/Russia object to elements of what the U.S. will most likely propose, which Medvedev has called something of a threshold of inhumanity, this may be seen as a de facto victory, however small. Given that oil is a globally traded commodity, Iranian oil will find itself in the supplies of countries supporting sanctions, and few people understand this nuance correctly.
Tellingly, the loudest proponent of harsh sanctions is France who secures much of its petro energy from Iran. Japan, a rotating member of the sec. council is also a large consumer of Iranian black. Has anyone considered that France is shouting so loud in order to secure a strong hand in drafting the details of the sanctions which will surely effect its energy security?
Finally, good eye to make the bean count comment. Black swan events like a cyber bombing of our power grid, transportation system, or military infrastructure is vastly more devastating AND easy to do than most conventional balance of power/threat theorists consider. Ancient wisdom: the bigger the come, the harder they fall.
probability of reading jewish brit
If a comment as long as my previous one has a probability of 7% of being read, your's has about a 0.1% chance. My guess is that you're either an only child or the last of many children.
It's not that I disagree with anything you might have said, I just would never read all of it. Perhaps pretentious to think that Walt would.
...its just that most people I know can read quickly and have an attention span of more than 20 seconds. Sorry if you don't.
How many Americans would die in retaliation?
That is the question. Could Iran take out a carrier with a sunburn cruise missile? Millennium Challenge wargames were restarted after tens of thousands of US soldiers and 16 (iirc) ships were lost. Those carriers are sitting in the gulf, floating there like ducks, and Iran has missiles capable of taking them out that can't be countered.
And that doesn't include how many American citizens will eventually die on US soil in retaliation for such an attack. We've killed so many people that we will have enemies for generations yet Militant New Americans wants more to invite more pain our way. Real smart. It will smart all right.
Oh, and Israel... I guess... who cares? Fuck Israel. If it attacks Iran it will be just as well, at least for American peasants like me that will die in the future because of Perfect Innocent Israel. Thanks for nothing and rest assured people will eventually learn the truth and remember.
the Israel-first keyboard brigade doesn't give a shit about dead Americans. It's all Israel, all the time. My bad.
Why should I, an American that lives in the middle of the midwest, give a shit about Israel or any other piss ant country the other side of the planet? Oh that's right I DON'T. Let them all kill each other, good riddance.
Just kidding. We the People can't help but join in the mass murder fun. Can we torture the Iranians after we mass murder bomb them and their IAEA safegaurded nuclear program to death for their nonexistent weapons program? How about raping some of their children in front of their parents? Want to spread freedom? Start by spreading the butt cheeks. That means you too, Militant American. Bend over and take one for the troops, lazy asses.
Welcome to New America.
p.s. if anyone would like to reply with EVIDENCE that IRAN ACTUALLY HAS A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM, please don't. STOP! Instead, email your proof to an American Intelligence Agency, they are desperately in need of it, much more so than I am. Don't dally, Uncle Sam is refreshing his inbox waiting for your mickey mouse hasbara.
Saudi Arabia announces nuclear energy program
The US' major ally in the ME, aside from the nuclear armed criminal state of Israel, is the corrupt dictatorship of Saudi Arabia, which now wants to create a 'peaceful' nuclear energy program giving exactly the same reasons for doing so as Iran did: "designed to meet Saudi Arabia’s growing needs for energy"..."so they can export more oil and gas to foreign markets."
http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-nuclear-energy-2010-4
http://www.us-sabc.org/custom/news/details.cfm?id=640
Of course, the US dismissed Iran's reason's as spurious. Will they be consistent and do the same with the Saudi's or will the US' inherent double standards prevail as they always do?
Meanwhile, the gangster state of Israel, with its nuclear weapons, sits quietly by, massacring Arabs.
Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.
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