Posted By Stephen M. Walt Share

While I was traveling, Charli Carpenter and Matt Yglesias both picked up on a recent NYT commentary on the relative lack of attention that traffic fatalities receive. The basic issue is simple: Why do we get so exercised when nearly 3,000 Americans die on 9/11, but remain relatively indifferent to the nearly 40,000 Americans who die every year in traffic accidents? Presidents don't organize their governments around a "war on speeding," even though an effective campaign against it would save more lives and cost a lot less than our current "war on terror. And we wouldn't lose any lives improving highway safety or have to invade any other countries to do it.

There are some basic psychological dynamics that help explain the disproportionate attention that terrorist attacks and other vivid events receive, and no doubt the economic incentives that drive news coverage play a big role too. But I suspect another reason for the different reactions is that there are relatively few special interests in favor of better highway safety and a lot of powerful interests in favor of costly and ambitious foreign policy crusades.  Highway fatalities are randomly distributed (except for teen-age males, they don't affect any particular social or ethnic group more than another). So with the exception of groups like MADD, whose members are often motivated by tragic personal losses, there aren't a lot of powerful and well-organized political forces pushing for doing more. Meanwhile, there are concentrated interests (such as car manufacturers) who'd like to do as little as possible because making cars safer costs money). It took a lonely crusader like Ralph Nader to get the U.S. government to get serious about highway safety back in the 1960s, and Nader is a pretty unusual guy.

The result is that highway safety is treated like an ordinary part of public policy; it's just one of the many things that state, federal, and local agencies are expected to deal with in the normal course of doing business. Governments do encourage improvements by regulating crash standards, by passing seat belt laws, and by making highways safer, which is why the number of traffic fatalities is going down. But nobody is ever up in arms about the issue and few politicians bother to make it a crusade. 

By contrast, a foreign terrorist threat immediately becomes a big money-maker for lots of well-organized groups (including defense contractors, think tanks, beltway bandits, and yes, more than a few universities), so the danger it poses gets blown out of all proportion. This may also explain why we worry more about foreign-based terrorism than we do about the purely domestic variety, even in periods when the actual danger from the latter is greater. This isn't the only reason why the public tends to view foreign-based terrorism with alarm and traffic safety with a certain blasé, business-as-usual attitude, but I do think it's part of the problem. Ironically, if the situation were reversed, we'd be safer here at home and we'd be doing fewer stupid things abroad.

FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images

 

FP WONK STEVE

11:05 PM ET

June 11, 2010

War on speeding

While I agree completely on the lack of attention to automobile fatalities, I disagree on this notion of stronger enforcement of speed limits will lower fatalities.

It's just not that simple. Not all fatalities are caused by "speeding". They are caused by any number of things like:

1. Environmental and Man-Made causes (Bridges, trees, the curbs, concrete medians, poorly lit turns and streets, semi-wet gravel/dirt, snow, black ice, tornadoes, flash-flooding, etc.)

2. Possible mechanical issues like Toyota's braking issues, old vehicles without better safety features, unlucky physics.

3. Human error (simple mistakes, failure to yield on turns, hand-eye coordination failures, etc)

4. Gross Negligence (blatant street racing, Road rage, DUI/DWI, etc)

Sometimes items in no.1 are counted in a different tally sometimes, like tornadoes, but not always. Alot of our culture would have to be changed to lessen the effects of traffic deaths. For one, more public transportation would help. I live in Houston for example, and it is almost impossible to get around this city without it taking 2-4 hours, without having your own car.

I bet if most medium-to-large US cities were able to get great rail transportation, or even lots of bullet trains between states, the numbers might drop.

 

DMOLONEY

3:13 PM ET

June 12, 2010

"I disagree on this notion of

"I disagree on this notion of stronger enforcement of speed limits will lower fatalities."

Granted it wouldn't prevent all deaths but considering speeding a factor in a third of all deaths its certainly a major factor to pay attention to and try and limit.

http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/27/do-we-tolerate-too-many-traffic-deaths/

 

DMOLONEY

3:33 PM ET

June 12, 2010

"At least the war on traffic

"At least the war on traffic is unlikely to be COMPLETELY counterproductive, like attacking Iraq (>1 million dead Iraqi civlians)"

I think the iraq war was a mistake and cost a lot of people their lives but that million figure isn't the most reliable.

http://w4.ub.uni-konstanz.de/srm/article/view/2373/3973

"or Af/Pak (> few hundred thousand dead muslims)."

The afghan intervention has overall been beneficial to the Muslims in Afghanistan, if certain Muslims elsewhere have a problem with it they should recognize that most afghans see the invasion as a good thing and stop being guided by their anti-American prejudice.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/11_01_10_afghanpoll.pdf

 

FP WONK STEVE

5:51 PM ET

June 12, 2010

Speed Limits

Lowering speed limits will achieve very little, if not nothing! Speed limits are already down to 60 in Houston, but fatalities are still the same if not higher! It already takes forever to get around anywhere, lowering everything to a somewhat safe 45 MPH, will make life unbearable in a city with little public transportation.

Taking more cars off the road will be the only way to slow down the deaths. Like that poster above said, as long as we use combustible engine cars, there will be deaths. We need more safer alternatives such as light rail and trains.

 

FP WONK STEVE

6:01 PM ET

June 12, 2010

I also forgot to add..

18 Wheeler trucks! I don't care what speed you are going, or what they are going. Someone could die easily. In fact the last 3 fatalities I have personally seen in Houston involved 18 wheeled trucks. One accident was soo bad they closed a part of the interstate for 3 days for the investigation when 2 people were killed.

Last year I saw a guy on I-610 slumped over in an SUV dead after a dump truck had rear ended his vehicle. He was slumped over in reverse because his neck had snapped. I have never seen a dead body after an accident before and the visual still bothers me sometimes.

It's worth noting that his older SUV DID NOT have a head restraint on the front seats....

This is the kind of shit I am talking about. Speed has little to do with these deaths. It's about the mistakes and the overall mechanisms we use to transport ourselves.

 

DMOLONEY

5:05 PM ET

June 14, 2010

"We are not talking violent

"We are not talking violent deaths, but excess deaths due to the US invasion (eg. power is out at the hospital cause US bombed power station....)"

The MIT study is relying on the Burnham lancet survey findings which have been found to have very serious flaws.

http://www.physorg.com/news191518817.html

"This is what the US government’s Defense Science Board has to say on the situation: LOOK AT IT:"

The link does not work.

“American efforts have not only failed in this respect: they may also have achieved the opposite of what they intended."

In the case of Iraq i would find this to be true also.

• Muslims do not “hate our freedom,” but rather, they hate our policies."

I also believe that the majority of Muslims do not hate freedom, a number of polls show that most Muslims support things such as democracy, they also take great exception to US policies, but is due to a mixture of genuine disagreement with them and also an anti-American bias which should not be ignored.

"The overwhelming majority voice their objections to what they see as one-sided support in favor of Israel and against Palestinian rights,"

The US should adopt a more balanced view when it comes to the Israeli/Palestinian issue however if Muslims were genuinely concerned with the welfare of their fellow co-religionists they would express greater anger at the policies of the far worse Sudanese government which according to a recent study has claimed the lives of almost 300,000 people, the majority of them Muslim.

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2809%2961967-X/abstract

They should also express more anger at Sudan's main defenders China and Russia.

The fact that they focus their main anger towards US support for Israel and not towards the Darfur issues indicates an anti-American bias and not sympathy for fellow Muslims at play.

"and the longstanding, even increasing support for what Muslims collectively see as tyrannies, most notably Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Pakistan, and the Gulf states."

It is unlikely that most Muslims are genuinely angry about this for the majority of Muslims live in US supported democracies and they have not pushed for their own nations to cut off links with the countries mentioned above, for example neither Turkey nor Indonesia have stopped supporting countries such as Iran, Jordan or the UAE.

Secondly US support is not the cause of oppression in these countries for countries in the region which do not have US support such as Iran and Syria are also oppressive.

"Furthermore, in the eyes of Muslims, American occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq has not led to democracy there, but only more chaos and suffering.

Most afghans feel that their lives are better now than they were before and that their has been less not more chaos and suffering.
If Muslims elsewhere think otherwise it is the fault of the media they watch or read for not making the situation clear. Its also quite likely that many Muslims actually just want to believe that the situation has gotten worse in order to justify their anti-Americanism.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/11_01_10_afghanpoll.pdf

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/18_11_09_oxfam_afghan.pdf

 

DMOLONEY

5:08 PM ET

June 14, 2010

"Our messing around overseas

"Our messing around overseas (witness our clear involvement with the terrorist murder of 5 Iranian revolutionary guards recently) causes blowback terrorism.
It does not matter whether or not AQ has any safe havens or not or whether Hezbollah is rearming— regular people — heck, even US army officers, it appears — can become radicalized by the sheer extent of our injustice abroad."

Again I agree that the Iraq war has been counter-productive for many reasons however it is a mistake to claim that individuals have been radicalized due to injustice, the afghan war has been overall beneficial to the Afghan people.

Note I am not justifying what they did. Their means are WRONG. But their cause is, at least partly, just.

That is not so, if their cause succeeded the Afghan people would be in an even worse situation.

"AQ" will even manifest itself as Officer Nidal in the US Army. Call it what you will -- it is ~1billion pissed off muslims."

If one does something wrong to another it is understandable for the victim to feel "pissed", however when one does something good and the other individual is still angry we can make out that the second individuals motives are not rational and are instead guided by a personal unwarranted dislike. We see this with Nidal and Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, they were willing to kill people due to the US taking actions which actually overall helped Muslims in a certain region.

 

DMOLONEY

10:04 PM ET

June 15, 2010

"Perceptions are very

"Perceptions are very important -- that 10m Afganis"

The population of Afghanistan is larger than 10 million.

"in a possibly biased poll"

All polls taken in Afghanistan since the war have consistently shown that most afghans see the war as right or just, theres nothing that shocking from it nor is there any reason to see it as being biased.

"think their living conditions are marginally better than 10 years ago does not justify pissing off 1billion muslims -- whether their feelings are right or wrong."

Actually if ones opinion is wrong it is perfectly acceptable to go against it, and the individual who is wrong should accept the reality of the situation and alter their opinion when it is shown to be flawed, it is also a mistake for others to defend a persons view when the available evidence shows that it is wrong, especially when their views support a position which will bring about excess suffering as we with the Afghan situation.

 

DELIA RUHE

3:47 AM ET

June 12, 2010

The essential growth industry

Since the arms industry is mostly what's holding together what's left of the US economy, there isn't much chance that the focus will shift from war to road-kill. Same goes for the "war on drugs." Why shift the focus to prevention and rehab when you can spend it on military adventures in Latin America and Afghanistan, where GDP depends a lot on the drug trade? If you want to support a military establishment in the manner to which it has become accustomed, you have to wage wars. Otherwise, the electorate might start to question the fact that three-quarters of taxpayer money is going to the Pentagon and to servicing the debt for past wars.

 

MLROCAP

11:50 AM ET

June 12, 2010

World Campaign on Road Safety

Well, there is an international campaign for road safety, under the WHO leadership. http://www.who.int/roadsafety/en/

 

DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

10:49 PM ET

June 12, 2010

Really Dr. Walt?

Sure, more Americans are killed by traffic accidents year around than terrorist attacks. The numbers support this, and the fact that the United States hasn't suffered a major terrorist attack on its soil since September 11 only skews these numbers in this direction.

But this doesn't necessarily mean that all of the money being spent by the U.S. Government on counterterrorism and homeland security is a waste. Numbers can be deceiving, particularly when your dealing with a tactic whose main objective is to instill fear among the civilian target population. In fact, depending on the organization and what they are trying to accomplish, the physical destruction of property and the killing of unarmed civilians is secondary to the psychological impact of the attack. Look what happened on Christmas Day when Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab tried to take down a passenger jet heading to Detroit; he failed tactically, but judging from Washington's schezofrenic reaction, his operation could still be considered a success. AQAP (Al'Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) certainly thought it was, and so did Osama bin-Laden, who hailed the Nigerian terrorist "a hero" to his fellow Muslims.

Can you really compare car accidents to terrorist attacks? I guess you can, but it's really apples to oranges isn't it? There is more behind the numbers when we talk to traffic accidents of course (like the family's that are affected and the lives that are lost) but the same goes for terrorism. Except terrorist attacks have a toll on the national psyche that traffic deaths do not.

http://www.depetris.wordpress.com

 

DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

10:50 PM ET

June 12, 2010

CORRECTED VERSION, Sorry

Sure, more Americans are killed by traffic accidents year around than terrorist attacks. The numbers support this, and the fact that the United States hasn't suffered a major terrorist attack on its soil since September 11 only skews these numbers in this direction.

But this doesn't necessarily mean that all of the money being spent by the U.S. Government on counterterrorism and homeland security is a waste. Numbers can be deceiving, particularly when your dealing with a tactic whose main objective is to instill fear among the civilian target population. In fact, depending on the organization and what they are trying to accomplish, the physical destruction of property and the killing of unarmed civilians is secondary to the psychological impact of the attack. Look what happened on Christmas Day when Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab tried to take down a passenger jet heading to Detroit; he failed tactically, but judging from Washington's schizophrenic reaction, his operation could still be considered a success. AQAP (Al'Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) certainly thought it was, and so did Osama bin-Laden, who hailed the Nigerian terrorist "a hero" to his fellow Muslims.

Can you really compare car accidents to terrorist attacks? I guess you can, but it's really apples to oranges isn't it? There is more behind the numbers when we talk to traffic accidents of course (like the family's that are affected and the lives that are lost) but the same goes for terrorism. Except terrorist attacks have a toll on the national psyche that traffic deaths do not.

http://www.depetris.wordpress.com

 

THEBLACKCAT

12:59 PM ET

June 13, 2010

Risk by Dan Gardner

I recommend a book called Risk by Canadian journalist Dan Gardner. It is essentially about this topic, though looking at it from the point of view of public fear and anxiety, and demonstrates how factors such as evolutionary psychology, the media and financial interests combine to make us fear low probability threats such as terrorism and child murderers much more than much higher probability ones such as car accidents and diabetes.

I think there's also an element of anger behind such preferences; it's easier to find someone to blame, and to want revenge - a powerful but stupid emotion - against, in events such as 9/11 than in a wide variety of car accidents.

 

RYANKURT20

2:21 PM ET

June 13, 2010

Terrorism and traffic

I'm totally agree with Steve.
"We need more safer alternatives such as light rail and trains."
beurette

 

ROBOBASS

3:31 PM ET

June 13, 2010

Not just speeding

This topic has boiled my blood for years, going back before 9/11. In New York City, for example, something like 1.5 pedestrians and bicyclists are killed and 40 injured by cars and trucks each day (Since NYPD refuses to release stats on this, no one knows for sure). It is not just speeding, but general unsafe and careless driving. The highways in the northeast are crowded with SUV's (with primitive suspensions which make them unsafe even at 50mph) tailgating each other at 80mph. Not to mention the death and suffering caused by auto and truck emissions. The deep pockets of the transportation industry are effective in thwarting any progress with these issues. If they can save themselves $1.10 for a dollar spent on lobbying, they'll do it, no matter the human toll.

But this is just modern American corporate capitalism. We wage pointless foreign wars to keep our military suppliers in business. We tolerate drug wars in Mexico because of the windfall profits it generates for US small arms manufacturers and the private prison industry. We needn't even go into mineral extraction, but how about toleration of incredible human rights abuses by a country whose weapons purchases we actually subsidize?

The problem (although few Americans seems to see any problem at all) is the system which has evolved, where the large corporations make the rules and choose the government, which exists to serve them. The Supreme court likes this system, and has decided to make it permanent. The cost is basic human dignity and often life itself. I don't see this changing anytime soon. Perhaps when a gallon of filthy chemical contaminated water drawn from the tap costs as much as a gallon of gas at the pump, people will start to ask themselves what the hell has gone wrong.

 

VILKSSWEDEN

3:15 AM ET

June 14, 2010

I can't believe this guy is a Harvard Professor

He should be teaching high school in some backwards town.

The rationale behind U.S. reaction to car crashes vs. terrorism deaths -

Society is willing to assume the risks of driving for the benefits it provides. Cars provide many benefits to our lives. We assume the risks of driving for the benefits that it provides. It's a trade off society is generally willing to make (by everyone who has a car, rides in one, or even takes buses).

Terrorism is murder. There is no societal benefit so we refuse to accept the risk/damage.

It's not about some government conspiracy to make money for people. No more than any other government bill, action, reform benefits some groups over others.

 

ROBOBASS

11:37 AM ET

June 14, 2010

"Society is willing to assume

"Society is willing to assume the risks of driving..." True, but that doesn't mean no efforts should be made toward safety. Ralph Nader's efforts to improve safety standards in the 1960's have probably saved millions of lives. Likewise for the later crackdown on drunk driving. This was not without cost to the affected industries, and they fought tooth and nail to block them, but I think most Americans would agree in hindsight that implementation of these measures has had a positive effect, and the economy was hardly crippled by them.

"Terrorism is murder. There is no societal benefit..." True also, but we live in a world of limited resources. If we have a choice between spending a hundred billion on going after terrorists, or putting the money toward education, healthcare, clean air and water, etc., which option will provide a greater benefit to Americans?

I don't claim any conspiracy. It is out in the open that corporations seek only profit and have the will and the way to steer government policy toward their goals.

Personally, I'd prefer to be blown up in a plane over dying slowly of cancer caused by the benzine in my tapwater. That's just me, I guess. Vengeance seems to be instilled into the American psyche to a level which trumps self preservation.

Quote: "Your war is costing us a lot of money, Sonny" - Tom Hagen, from The Godfather.

 

SNOOKMIC

8:31 PM ET

June 14, 2010

I can't believe this guy is a Harvard Professor

I agree with Vilk. We choose to drive to facilitate rapid transport and are willing to accept that risk. NO ONE who gave their life in the Twin Towers chose to be present for the opportunity to take a stand against an extremist religious philosophy. It is an insult to those who died to make such an analogy.

 

ZAID HAMID

8:30 PM ET

June 14, 2010

Leading cause of death

Speeding is the leading cause of traffic fatalities here in the US.
It is NOT however the leading cause of accidents.

That may suggest that a "war on speeding" is the answer.
The problem is that too many cities and small bodies have abused this by creating a revenue building opportunity for themselves (remember Air, Land and Speed in VA not too long ago.)

The problem is that too many people see a traffic cop for speeding as what they mostly represent these days - armed revenue collection...

 

QPZMGR

4:36 AM ET

June 29, 2010

I also believe th

I also believe that the majority of Muslims do not hate freedom, a number of polls show that most Muslims support things such as democracy, they also take great exception to US policies, but is due to a mixture of genuine disagreement with them and also an anti-American bias which should not be ignored.

"The overwhelming majority voice their objections to what they see as one-sided support in favor of Israel and against Palestinian rights,"

The US should adopt a more balanced view when it comes to the Israeli/Palestinian issue replica IWC however if Muslims were genuinely concerned with the welfare of their fellow co-religionists they would express greater anger at the policies of the far worse Sudanese government which according to a recent study has claimed the lives of almost 300,000 people, the majority of them Muslim.

 

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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