Posted By Stephen M. Walt Share

I have only two thoughts on the deal that has sent ten Russian spies back to their homeland, in exchange for four people who were, as the Times puts it, "deemed to be spies" in Russia.

First, some people wonder why the United States didn't get more upset about this, and why the Obama administration didn't allow the incident to derail its long-term effort to "reset" relations with Moscow. The simple answer is: because we are undoubtedly doing the same thing, albeit probably in different ways. I doubt we've sent U.S. citizens to Russia as long-term moles (though anything's possible), but I have no doubt whatsoever that we are engaged in all sort of espionage efforts there (and in plenty of other countries too). To pitch the diplomatic equivalent of a hissy fit over something that we are doing ourselves would be asinine.  And as Reagan administration official Richard Burt pointed out, the United States and the Soviet Union ratified numerous agreement at the height of the Cold War, even though we were spying on each other like crazy and trying to bring about the other side's collapse (we succeeded, they failed).

Second, it is remarkable how quickly the whole business was resolved. The two governments did the deal, the Russian spies plead guilty, and the handoff was made. Turns out its much better to be spying for Russia than to be detained as a suspected terrorist. If that happens, you could end up being held without trial for eight years, with the U.S. government bending over backwards to find some way to keep you in custody, even when there was mounting evidence that you were innocent. Keep that latter point in mind the next time you decide to visit Yemen, or when somebody brags about our deep commitment to the "rule of law" and the importance of habeas corpus.

EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/Getty Images

 
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BLUE13326

4:23 PM ET

July 9, 2010

Yeh, but what about the

Yeh, but what about the paymaster who fled Cyprus? I bet he feels stupid; if he'd just stayed put he'd be out of trouble by now.

 

LITTLEMANTATE

4:49 PM ET

July 9, 2010

We've got a new boogey man

The Russians are no longer the enemy dujour. Just like the Germans were the most evil people in the world, until they weren't, and we looked the other way while the Adenauer regime was jam-packed with ex-Nazis.

Once America has defeated an enemy, we don't care about them anymore. Some might say this is an example of magnanimity to a fallen foe. But considering the insane rhetoric that pervades American discourse up until the moment of defeat, I'd look for another explanation. We live for the hunt and the kill, and a large percentage of us stay terrified of those Others who might blow up the mall or take or semi-bungalow away.

Once the enemy is defeated they aren't scary or mysterious enough to justify spending billions on defense against them. It then becomes the job of our leaders to find a new enemy to justify the ongoing con. Watch and see, if we would totally defeat the Iranians and kill enough of them until they surrendered, Americans would eventually find a condescendingly warm spot in their hearts for the Iranians while we simultaneously raved about destroying enemy X.

 

NICOLAS19

11:19 AM ET

July 13, 2010

good point

When (if?) US will eventually pull out of Afghanistan and Iraq, they'll magically cease to matter anymore as the public's view will be focused on Iran or whatever country the US will beat up next. So no one will care how many weapons US sells to dictators (like to Saddam).

 

CHRISWALKER

4:57 PM ET

July 9, 2010

Spies?

While we make shows and movies romanticizing the power of spies, these 10 poor souls were supposedly collecting the sort of information you could find in the pages of the NY Times.

No doubt they must have better spies than this; we ought to be careful not to underestimate their spy network.

 

EGBERT

5:27 PM ET

July 9, 2010

we succeeded, they failed

Just like Vietnam, you never lost a battle but you lost the war. Your country is bleeding itself silly with the War on Terrorism, China is quietly trying to offload its US dollars, Russia has loads of energy resources. I suspect both are just biding their time, waiting for the large redwood in the forest to topple, after being eaten hollow from inside. They will be there to pick up the pieces.

 

DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

12:11 AM ET

July 10, 2010

Enough with the Cold War mentality

If the United States and Russia were still bitter antagonists towards each other in every aspect of foreign policy, then I would say that the discovery of the Russian spies would be an enormous achievement for U.S. intelligence. But guess what everyone; the Soviet Union has collapsed, modern day Russia is a figment of what it once was decades ago, and the geopolitical environment has changed over the last 30 years. Obviously Washington and Moscow still have their differences, like over missile defense, but both capitals also have a large number of similarities. Intelligence cooperation against terrorism, Mideast peace, the taming of Iran's nuclear program, and a more secure Afghanistan are only four examples.

Plus, what's the big deal? The Russian spies were pretty horrible in their jobs. No sensitive information was collected or transferred, and one (Anna Chapman) fell in love with U.S. culture altogether.

http://www.depetris.wordpress.com

 

EXTERNAL

12:54 AM ET

July 10, 2010

Real spies

are still working in the US agencies and have dual loyalties. Nozette is a good example of an American who is willing to sell his "kids" to make money.
Russians are laughing all the way to the bank- they have got all the natural resources that they want, they can crush the former 'satellite states" just by closing the natural gas or oil pump in the middle of winter and the mittelEuropa countries which are so keen to join NATO will think twice after they have seen the treatment that Turkey is enduring., thus playing into the hands of the Russians.
As far as taming Iran, there is no way - no one wants only ONE bully in the Middle East, sponsored by the US. China and Russia still need proxies in that region.
Securing Afghanistan, how???????
Beware of the sons and daughters of the refuseniks!!!!!!

 

DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

4:26 AM ET

July 11, 2010

On your question about

On your question about securing Afghanistan:

The United States and Russian authorities have been working quite well with one another on anti-narcotic enforcement...not only in Afghanistan, but in the entire Central Asian region. The sharing of intelligence between the two has been on an upswing, partly because the U.S. doesn't want drug money going into Taliban hands (although that might be too late) and partly because Russia is doing anything they can to stem the tide of illegal drugs flowing into its country. Opium and heroine addiction in Russia- particularly in the southern tier of the country- is only going up, particularly among younger generations. Moscow wants to salvage some of its up-and-coming talent, and the Russian Government has shown that one of the main ways to achieve this is through a tougher anti-narcotic policy. Otherwise, they wouldn't be monitoring their southern border or constantly doing surveillance on major drug routes.

And as far as the Taliban, well, both countries have a vested interest in containing the movement's capability. The U.S. views a resurgent Taliban as a failure of its entire enterprise in Afghanistan. The Russians, on the other hand, view a resurgent Taliban as a symbolic victory for Islamic extremist groups in the North Caucasus.

Washington and Moscow may have different national interests in Afghanistan. But at least they are fighting the same problems and hoping for the same overarching goal: stability.

http://www.depetris.wordpress.com

 

DAVID IN DC

2:22 PM ET

July 11, 2010

Turns out its much better to

Turns out its much better to be spying for Russia than to be detained as a suspected terrorist.

Apparently not universally. These gentlemen from Algeria are waging a legal battle to remain in Guantanamo. It doesn't appear the Russian spies were given any choice in the matter.

Six detainees would rather stay at Guantanamo Bay than be returned to Algeria

By Peter Finn
Saturday, July 10, 2010

The Obama administration would quickly send home six Algerians held at the military detention center at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, but for one problem: The men don't want to go. Given the choice between repatriation and incarceration, the men choose Gitmo, according to their lawyers...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/09/AR2010070904926.html

 

KASSANDRA

9:52 AM ET

July 12, 2010

The Russia-US-Israel axis

I am reminded that one of the most open avenues for Russian spies into the US is via Israel, all those dual-citizen Israeli-Russians who travel freely between Israel, the US and Russia. The US security agencies know this, but like so much connected with Jews, accusations of anti-Semitism is the first line of defense.

The poster boy here, of course, is Pollard. Now how was it that most of the information he stole, such as the silencing codes for US submariens, ended up in Soviet hands?

 

JSDKFW

1:42 PM ET

July 14, 2010

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Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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