Posted By Stephen M. Walt Share

One of the themes I have harped about on this blog has been the issue of opportunity costs.   When a great power gets itself over-committed in a lot of costly and time-consuming commitments (and when it mismanages its economy in various ways), then it won't have the surplus it needs when an unexpected challenge (or an unforeseen opportunity) arises. 

Case in point: the current floods that have ravaged Pakistan in recent weeks.  The situation is by all accounts horrific, and could have significant long-term consequences for millions of people.  It is precisely the sort of event that calls for a vigorous and generous U.S. response.

As everyone knows, the United States is widely despised among broad swathes of Pakistani society.  Some of this hostility is unmerited, but some of it is a direct result of misguided U.S. policies going back many decades.  As the U.S. experience with Indonesia following the 2004 Asian tsunami demonstrated, however, a prompt and generous relief effort could have a marked positive effects on Pakistani attitudes.  Such a shift could undermine support for extremist groups and make it easier for the Pakistani government to crack down on them later on.  It is also the right thing to do, and the U.S. military is actually pretty good at organizing such efforts.

The United States has so far pledged some $76 million dollars in relief aid, and has sent 19 helicopters to help ferry relief supplies.  That's all well and good, but notice that the U.S. government sent nearly $1 billion in aid in response to the tsunami, and we are currently spending roughly $100 billion annually trying to defeat the Taliban.  More to the point, bear in mind that the United States currently has some over 200 helicopters deployed in Afghanistan (and most reports suggest that we could actually use a lot more).  

So imagine what we might be able to do to help stranded Pakistanis if we weren't bogged down in a costly and seemingly open-ended counterinsurgency war, and didn't have all those military assets (and money) already tied up there?   It's entirely possible that we could do more to help suffering individuals, and more to advance our own interests in the region, if some of these military assets weren't already committed.   

Of course, Obama didn't know that there would be catastrophic flooding in Pakistan when he decided to escalate and prolong the Afghan campaign.  But that's just the point: when national leaders make or escalate a particular strategic commitment, they are not just determining what the country is going to do, they are also determining other things that that they won't be able to do (or at least won't be able to do as well).  

Thus, another good argument for a more restrained grand strategy is that it might free up the resources that would allow us do some real good in the world, whenever unfortunate surprises occur.   As they always will.

 
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DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

9:07 PM ET

August 18, 2010

What about Europe, the Arab World, and Turkey?

If the United States does not want to donate more money, the least the Obama administration can do is lobby other countries in Europe and the Arab world to contribute to Pakistan. Washington has given $76 million dollars in aid, which is $76 million more than most governments have given to the Pakistani Government over the last week. Obviously a measley $76 million is a drop in the bucket for the U.S., especially when we are spending billions in Iraq and Afghanistan and billions in force modernization. But it's still $76 million more than what other countries have given.

With the exception of Great Britain- which has donated $26 million so far- Europe has been anything but sympathetic to the situation inside Pakistan. Germany is not contributing their fair share, despite being an economic powerhouse, and France is largely staying away from the conflict all together. The United Nations has still not fulfilled half its quota for disaster relief efforts, forcing the World Bank to pick up the slack with millions in loans (which the Pakistani Government will probably not be able to pay off in the immediate future). Overall, the European Commission has contributed less than 1 percent of total aid so far.

But perhaps far worse is the Arab world's lack of compassion for Pakistan's humanitarian situation. For all of the Arab world's bombast about helping fellow Muslims in a time of need, Arab Governments like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been more than a disappointment. And Turkey, for all its glory as a rising powerhouse in the Middle East, has given somewhere close to $1.1 million to the relief effort. Maybe the Turks should start acting like a rising powerhouse.

Yes, the U.S. could be doing a whole lot more. But the whole world could be doing a whole lot more as well.

http://www.atlanticsentinel.com

 

MJTIER

6:58 PM ET

August 22, 2010

Actual Evidence

If anyone would like to complicate this discussion with actual evidence, you can get data on emergency assistance for Pakistani flood victims from the UN OCHA website. Here is a link to a Google spread sheet that will allow you to see the amount of money pledged by each donor, the amount per capita, and the difference between the amount pledged and actually delivered...

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AonYZs4MzlZbdHZxa0JyUFVkVl9TUS1keklPQ3c5ZUE&hl=en#gid=0

Based on these numbers, the United States has made the single largest commitment. Saudi Arabia has made the second largest commitment. In per capita terms, Saudi Arabia has made the largest commitment to Pakistan so far. These numbers are likely to change every day

Alternatively, if you would like information on the amount of development aid that has been allocated to Pakistan over the past 30 years, you can get that information here...

www.aiddata.org

 

ZAID HAMID

5:29 AM ET

August 25, 2010

And the point is?

Why should any NATO countries pay money to help out a country that
- actively disrupts peace talks between Karzai and the Taliban
- refuses to go after the Taliban in North Waziristan that kill NATO troops

One possibility is if you believe the Pakistani tune that goes .. "I have a gun to my head and I'm not afraid to use it" line that Pakistan sings all the time ie. The terrorist organizations are organizing aid and will get more influence if we don't give the Pakistani government money.

That is wearing thin since the reason these organizations exist is because they have been created and nurtured by the Pakistani government.

Wake up, people! All this aid is hogwash. If there's a way to send aid directly to the end user, I'm all for it. Sending it through the Pakistani government which will be forced to give it to the army for their efforts is guaranteed to end up in better whiteboards and computers for the Taliban and other terrorist organizations that the Pakistani government/army/ISI runs.

 

FP WONK STEVE

11:05 PM ET

August 18, 2010

Hey Prof. Walt

I would be curious to see what you would say in relation to Jared Diamond's book Collapse that you said you were going to read and give us your thoughts on. Unless you already did when you spoke about the oil leak issue in an earlier post.

I am about halfway through it myself and I can see how a group of people find it a struggle to deal with natural disasters, when so many of their resources are mostly dedicated to other issues.

In Pakistan's case their military is reported by the NYtimes to be distracted with the flood, but the opposition forces are not assisting with the flood and are telling locals not to accept western aid. I suppose this would help the argument you just posted about.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

12:34 AM ET

August 19, 2010

generalizations

Ippon wrote "wars to spread flowers of democracy" Those would be funeral wreaths.

Pakistan has been running a shakedown on the US foreign policy establishment. It's not like they are the only ones who are double dealing. We have NO room to talk there. Regardless, the people suffering are not the gov't--nor are the Taliban all Muslims. This sophomoric broad brush evidences the vast ignorance of the comment.

 

TRICKY DICKY

2:07 AM ET

August 19, 2010

"nor are the Taliban all Muslims"

Back to Social Studies 100

 

TRICKY DICKY

2:27 AM ET

August 19, 2010

Climate Change and Noah's Floods are now our constant partners

Firstly, these strong monsoon rains are a direct result of Climate Change / Global Warming. These strong monsoons are affecting a very large area from Pakistan through India, China and all the way to Korea with torrential rains, mud slides and Noah's Floods.

Climate Change is now our constant partner, so will these torrential rains, mud slides and Noah's Floods.

This strong weather system has affected Pakistan this year but it is bound to affect India and Bangladesh in the next year or two, again and again, and will wash away all the investments Americans have made in India. To be forewarned is to be forearmed.

Secondly, no half measures or pittance in aid will control the problem. We need real civil and environmental engineers to suggest large scale ways to control and manage this new menace to construct anew in over-populated and very poor Pakistan, India and Bangladesh etc. And these may include re-building villages on higher ground, dredging of rivers and canals, building more dams and water catches and innovative ideas like building a space shield over the Tibetan plateau from heating up too much and thus drawing too much moisture laden air from the Indian Ocean.

Third, none of these poor Asian countries can manage disasters of such large scale brought about by Climate Change which is a direct result of West’s over industrialization and is the primary cause of Climate Change. The UN or some other body has to be built with adequate number helicopters, airboats, blimps, cargo planes that can be brought into action on short notice.

20 million people are affected in Pakistan alone in an area the size of Italy or England. Next year 200 million people will be affected in India and these disasters are going to continue to unfold again and again for the foreseeable future.

Fourth, the 20 million have lost their houses, their crops and their entire livelihoods. They are hungry, they are thirsty and they are angry. A French revolution is brewing in Pakistan. The miniscule 1% middleclass of Pakistan may have to migrate en masse if the great unwashed reach the cities of the rich.

Are there any statesmen, with clarity of thought, left in this world?

lalqila.wordpress.com

 

BHANU TIWARI

5:13 AM ET

August 19, 2010

The instant I found a link to

The instant I found a link to the incredible The End Of Nations opinion piece I realized that Stephen M. Walt blog's commenters totally have to be able to pass judgement on this link: http://hubpages.com/hub/Global-Union-The-End-Of-Nations

 

ARYABHAT

8:44 AM ET

August 19, 2010

Why we must NOT help Pakistan

Mr Walt can't be faulted for his human reaction to a human tragedy - that we must help marooned Pakistanis. However, that isn't the most pragmatic reaction.

Firstly, Let us start with the "friends" that Pakistan and Pakistanis talk about. Turkey - where is its Aid floatilla for Pakistan? Saudis, where is there Petro Millions that they send through even Hawala to help Taliban shoot our soldiers? China could loan almost half a billion USD to build a Nuclear facility to Pakistan Army, where is its support? OIC, that starts "Emergency meeting" on every time there is a bullet fired in Gaza or Kashmir, has still not met. So forget about OIC Aid, I guess? So WHY should US and western world help Pakis when they are hell bent to kill every "infidel" with help of their "friends"? WHY?

Secondly, if Pakistan needs "all the help in the world", why shouldn't it take Indian offer of $5Million? It isn't taking it because Pakistani society is filled with poison and nothing else!

Thirdly, as some other posts in FP website pointed out, EVERY charity that is helping has to engage with Taliban to deliver this aid. So every Pound or USD I donate is going to help fund someone shooting American Soldier or Indian Doctor or Japanese engineer.

Helping Pakistan now is like giving milk to a snake. Once it is fed, it WILL come and bite you with its Venom! Be prepared!

 

BLUE13326

12:21 PM ET

August 19, 2010

This is an entirely

This is an entirely evidence-free post. We give Pakistan billions in aid, some of that could be diverted from their military to this disaster. Bush managed to aid Indonesia when we were both in Iraq and Afghanistan, so there is nothing to say that we cannot do the same now.

This is a great example of someone putting current events into their own preconceived categories/ bias and extrapolating from their conclusions from there. This type of argument is worthless.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

1:10 PM ET

August 19, 2010

military aid vs humanitarian aid

We'd be better off NOT giving the military aid, and providing this help. I understand those reluctant to give cash to beggars, but that doesn't mean you can't give them food.

 

MARTY MARTEL

1:56 PM ET

August 19, 2010

10 reasond why US should NOT aid Pakistan

Here are ten reasons why Pakistan does NOT need any help:
1. Pakistan’s democratic government facilitated relocation of Osama bin Laden from Sudan to Afghanistan in 1996 even though US had strenuously opposed it.
2. As Sandy Berger, Clinton’s national security advisor told 9/11 Commission in 2004, Pakistani Army was the midwife of Taliban. UN report on Bhutto killing released on 4/15/10 confirmed this fact when it noted that "The PAKISTANI MILITARY ORGANIZED AND SUPPORTED THE TALIBAN TO TAKE CONTROL OF AFGHANISTAN IN 1996“. So in a way, Pakistani government was in charge of Afghanistan when 9/11 attacks were carried out and hence Pakistani government was responsible for those attacks.
3. Pakistani ISI Director General Mahmud Ahmad had asked Omar Sheikh (the kidnapper of Daniel Pearl) to send $100,000 from a Dubai bank account to Mohammed Atta (the lead 9/11 hijacker) one year before those attacks. Mohammad Atta used that $100,000 for flight training, living expenses and to purchase flight tickets on the day of 9/11 attacks in US and returned unspent $25,000 back to same Dubai account. Musharraf was forced to retire ISI director General Mahmud Ahmad after Wall Street Journal exposed General Ahmad as the chief financier of 9/11 attacks. Pakistani ISI was heavily involved in planning of 9/11 attacks as corroborated by former Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Bob Graham.
4. Ex-CIA official Bruce Riedel said in an interview on 1/29/2009 that ''In Pakistan, the jihadist Frankenstein monster that was created by the Pakistani army and the Pakistani intelligence service, is now increasingly turning on its creators. It's trying to take over the laboratory.'' Pakistani Army and Intelligence Service (ISI) chose to create this ‘jihadist Frankenstein monster’ with full blessings and financing by Pakistan’s democratic governments in 1990s.
5. Declassified DIA Washington D.C., "IIR (intelligence Information Report) Pakistan Involvement in Afghanistan," dated November 7, 1996 states how "Pakistan's ISI is heavily involved in Afghanistan," and also details different roles various ISI officers play in Afghanistan. Stating that Pakistan uses sizable numbers of its Pashtun-based Frontier Corps in Taliban-run operations in Afghanistan, the document clarifies that, "these Frontier Corps elements are utilized in command and control; training; and when necessary combat“.
6. Declassified U.S. Department of State, Cable "Pakistan Support for Taliban" from Islamabad dated Sept. 26, 2000 states that "while Pakistani support for the Taliban has been long-standing, the magnitude of recent support is unprecedented." In response Washington orders the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad to immediately confront Pakistani officials on the issue and to advise Islamabad that the U.S. has "seen reports that Pakistan is providing the Taliban with materiel, fuel, funding, technical assistance and military advisors. [The Department] also understand[s] that large numbers of Pakistani nationals have recently moved into Afghanistan to fight for the Taliban, apparently with the tacit acquiescence of the Pakistani government." Additional reports indicate that direct Pakistani involvement in Taliban military operations has increased.
7. Witness how Musharraf fooled Bush by pretending to join US fight against terrorism while sheltering Mullah Mohammed Omar’s QST terror network in Baluchistan and Haqqani’s HQN terror network in Waziristan, while milking Uncle Sam in the process.
8. ‘Quetta Shura Taliban (QST) based in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan, is the No. 1 threat to US/NATO mission in Afghanistan. At the operational level, the Quetta Shura conducts a formal campaign review each winter, after which Mullah Mohammed Omar (Afghan Taliban Chief) announces his guidance and intent for the coming year‘ as General McChrystal narrated in his August, 2009 report to President Obama. But US can not even use its drones to destroy QST that is causing daily deaths of US/NATO soldiers in Afghanistan since 2002!
9. Pakistani ISI and Army are fueling and sustaining Afghan insurgency as reported by Matt Waldman in ‘The sun in the sky‘ on 6/13/10, corroborated by WikiLeaks leaks on 7/25/10 and then further corroborated by Chris Alexander, Canadian ambassador to Afghanistan from 2003 to 2005 and Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Afghanistan from 2005 until 2009 in his article on 7/30/10 titled ‘The huge scale of Pakistan‘s complicity‘.
10. The ISI is said to compensate families of suicide bombers to the tune of 200,000 Pakistani rupees, claims the Waldman report. Thus US aid to bankrupt Pakistan finances the death of US/NATO soldiers in Afghanistan. So in a way, US is financing the death of its own troops in Afghanistan.

 

WOLFBOY

3:45 PM ET

August 19, 2010

I am compelled to respond

I am compelled to respond after reading the comments, which surprise me with the intensity and near unanimity of their point of view.

Settiing aside the humanitarian issues, as a purely cold-blooded, practical matter I am hard-pressed to think of a more effective use of $1B in our various struggles against middle-eastern extremism than aid to those impacted by the floods. The struggle for hearts and minds is fundamental, and though it gets lots of lip service I don't see that it has been given nearly the priority it deserves.

Yes, the US is widely despised in Pakistan, and this has real-long term consequences for the US. Even a modest impact on Pakistani views of the US (and that may be all that can be expected) would be well worth the cost.

And yes, I accept that Pakistan has been aiding the Taliban, while extorting US dollars that it uses to counter India. This is simply not relevant to the cost-benefit calculation here, however.

I wholeheartedly endorse Dr. Walt's take on this, as well as Peter Feaver's bottom line on this same subject (his comments appear to be turned off).

 

CEOUNICOM

7:09 AM ET

August 30, 2010

Geography 101

""our various struggles against middle-eastern extremism""

That sentence would make sense if Pakistan were in the middle-east, or the Tarik-i-Taliban were Arab.

Come on people.

 

TRICKY DICKY

3:47 PM ET

August 19, 2010

Hindoo Indians show a lot of love for mankind.

Hindoo Indians show a lot of love for mankind and even more so for Muslim Pakistanis and Muslim Indians.

It has become quite clear to me.

lalqila.wordpess.com

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

11:22 PM ET

August 22, 2010

Indians? Dickey

George Soros himself has given as much to this cause as the Indian gov't. So, on what is your comment based?

 

TRICKY DICKY

4:14 PM ET

August 19, 2010

Killing two birds with one stone

Instead of wasting $100 billion per year in a useless occupation of Afghanistan, America and NATO should simply retract and withdraw its troops.

And then invest $100 billion per year in Pakistan, to stabilise the situation from Neo-Noah's Floods AND make Afghanistan a ward of Pakistan for the foreseeable future with clear instructions to stabilise it also sans religious extremism.

This may take the form of schools in every village, iphone in every child's hand for education in far off places (think iphone apps for K – 12 and MIT OpenCourseware etc.), health clinics whilst following the standards of schools like the Presentation Convent School in Murree that I attended whilst there.

Duplicate and replicate Presentation Convent Schools in all of Pakistan and Afghanistan and thus kill two birds with one stone.

For the naysayers, I will say this that, 90% of the boarders at the Presentation Convent were Pashtuns. Their families were sending their children there to get the right educations and many of the boarders were as young as six years old.

The time is ripe for winning hearts and minds.

lalqila.wordpress.com

 

TRICKY DICKY

6:10 PM ET

August 19, 2010

Additional note - The teachers/sisters were nuns from Ireland

All the teachers/sisters at the Presentation Convent School were nuns from Ireland who dedicated their entire lives to educate children in Pakistan.

Incidentally, I was also born in a Holy Family Hospital in Pakistan that was also run by Irish nuns.

So, born in a Catholic hospital and educated in a Catholic school in Muslim Pakistan; quite a dichotomy for the propagandists who contantly paint Pakistan in a negative picture.

Perhaps they are painting themselves and have certainly never lived in Pakistan.

Also, where are Americans dedicating their lives to do good in the world or are they too busy starting Jeocon wars and raining death and destruction in the world!

lalqila.wordpress.com

 

TRICKY DICKY

4:16 AM ET

August 20, 2010

Thank you, but you failed to make a point

Perhaps, you can provide specific examples of what doesn't add up in your calculations and I can try to clarify.

lalqila.wordpress.com

 

TRICKY DICKY

1:28 PM ET

August 20, 2010

I see it quite clearly now

All the angst is about Jeocon / Neocon coinage.

Is it true?

Aurangzeb Khan,
lalqila.wordpress.com

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

1:46 PM ET

August 20, 2010

uniting Af/Pak is a non starter

"And then invest $100 billion per year in Pakistan, to stabilise the situation from Neo-Noah's Floods AND make Afghanistan a ward of Pakistan for the foreseeable future with clear instructions to stabilise it also sans religious extremism."

Few are aware of this, but it has been Anglo policy since the partition of India to keep Afghanistan and Pakistan divided. Pakistan upon partition was interested in uniting with Afghanistan UNDER the Afghan King, who managed to steer a clear course between Britain and Russia. Britain strenuously prevented this as part and parcel of their divide and conquer strategy.

If Af/Pak were to unite, the Pashtun people would be the majority. By keeping them divided no ethnic group dominates either country. So, your sensible solutions are non-starters for the West--and perhaps Russia, China and India as well. (not to mention the other ethnic groups in Af/Pak

 

ASHOK2718

7:49 PM ET

August 19, 2010

Thanks prof. Walt for deleting one of my statements

in which I interpreted above honorable gentleman's one statement as a death wish for Indians (which he certainly didn't meant)

I am really sorry and it won't happen again.

Thanks again

 

TRICKY DICKY

5:15 AM ET

August 20, 2010

Initial losses estimated at $43 billion are very low

The world is failing to see the calamity that has engulfed and struck Pakistan.

Today, 20 million people are hungry, thirsty and angry. They have lost their homes, cattle, standing crops and everything else.

But, the initial losses estimated at $43 billion are very low.

43,000,000,000/20,000,000
= $2150

This $2150 number, averaged over 20 million, implies the loss of one year’s worth of work for a poor farmer which itself seems very low.

What about the cost of providing food, water and shelter to the 20 million for the next several months?

But then, what about the cost of their houses, cattle, belongings?

What about the cost of buying heavy machinery that will be needed to do much of the reconstruction?

What about the cost of rebuilding schools, dispensaries, hospitals, roads, highways, train tracks, bridges, microwave towers, canals, river embankments, barrages, dams and water catches?

What about the cost of building a space shield over the Tibetan plateau to dampen climate change and dampen strong monsoon rains?

By some estimates Pakistan has been pushed back 50 years.

Thus the actual cost to Pakistan, amortised over 50 years, is probably x 20, viz. over $1 Trillion.

Who says the monsoon rains are not going to strike with equal vengeance next year or the year after?

Strong monsoon rains have flooded 20 million in Pakistan and may affect 200 million next year in India or Bangladesh.

Strong monsoon rains and flooding are our constant companions now and we have to adjust to this new reality.

lalqila.wordpress.com

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

1:54 PM ET

August 20, 2010

not all "affected" are affected the same way

Many of those 20 million affected are likely not directly affected. It's actually inconceivable someone who lives on high ground in a village where 10% of low lying homes were lost, bridges washed away are affected, but their economic costs are minimal. They can likely continue with their business, though certainly affected, not nearly as badly as others who literally lost everything.

I know this sounds callous, but it is probably correct.

 

JPOWELL

9:12 PM ET

August 23, 2010

Flooding

Politics aside, traditionally flooding never gets the attention of epidemics, fires or earthquakes. This is a problem because flooding is the most devastating.

John Powell
www.sandbricktech.com

 

WHATACROCK1

7:07 PM ET

August 26, 2010

Indonesia

My information is that the Bush Admin. used the flooding to erase gains made by the people against tyranny, and against the gains made by Clinton for the people related to Indonesia. It makes sense, given what we have done in Indonesia. Read Confessions of an Economic Hit Man to see how we did some of it. I'm sure someone will tell me if I am wrong. Trouble is, our own government and Corporatocracy do the same thing to us, whenever possible. It's easy because we are essentially held captive by our emotional reactions to their fear mongering. American earth girls (and boys) are easy.

 

SHMILY521

6:39 AM ET

September 8, 2010

moncler

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http://www.BuyMoncler.net/

 

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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