It's a glorious day in New England, and I hope President
Obama's vacation improves now that it's stopped pouring. Now that he's got a little down-time, I hope he's
thinking hard about his economic and foreign policy team. He's been in office for more than a year and a half,
and he's had to wrestle with more than the usual number of alligators. He inherited an American economy in free
fall, a lost war in Iraq and a losing war in Afghanistan, a declining U.S. image
abroad, a comatose peace process in the Middle East, and assorted challenges in
places like Sudan, Somalia, and Colombia.
Given that array of troubles, one would hardly expect him to
achieve a perfect record of success after a little more than nineteen months. But having said that, does Obama have any private concerns about the people upon whose advice he's been
relying? As the economic
recovery effort slows, does he still have the same confidence in people like
Tim Geithner, Larry Summers, and Ben Bernanke? With the GOP poised to make big gains in November,
does he still think advisors like Rahm Emanuel and David Axelrod have the fingers
on the pulse of the people? As his
own approval ratings slip (despite a slight bump up this month), does he think his media team is doing a good job of
managing public perceptions?
Then there's foreign and defense policy. With Secretary of Defense Robert Gates contemplating
retirement sometime next year, who is waiting in the wings to give him balanced
and sage advice on national security matters? After the roller-coaster ride Obama experienced on Middle
East issues (the initial demand for a settlement freeze, the Cairo speech, the
humiliating climb-down, and now direct talks that hardly anyone thinks will
succeed), does he still have faith in his Middle East team? What about Richard Holbrooke and
Stephen Bosworth, the high-profile special envoys who were supposed to work
their magic in AfPak and North Korea?
And has the seemingly endless parade of bad news and the dearth of
tangible progress in Afghanistan and Pakistan raised any doubts in his mind about
the wisdom of those who encouraged him to escalate there?
I don't expect President Obama to voice any of these concerns
(if he has them), and for all I know he still believes that he's got the best
and the brightest on his team. But
no president makes all the right appointments, and one sign of effective
leadership is the ability to reshuffle your team over time. Back when he took office, I wrote that
one sign of his effectiveness would his willingness to replace people who
weren't performing well, but the only high-profile departures I can think of so
far are the resignation of DNI Dennis Blair and Obama's decision for relieve
Afghan commander Stanley McChrystal.
And Obama took the latter step because McChrystal made some ill-advised
remarks to a journalist, not because he had lost confidence in McChrystal's
handling of the war itself.
But I'm still wondering if we're on the cusp of a significant
reshuffle. It's pretty common for
some people to depart after a couple of years anyway, because these jobs are
killers and because academics serving in government normally get no more than
two years of leave. The
midterms are going to be seen as a referendum on Obama's performance to date, and it's
not going to be pretty. The Right
hates him, the progressive left has lost faith, and the middle is muddled. Obama will have to start looking
forward to 2012, and he will want to inject some new blood and new energy into
the Executive Branch. And lord
knows he needs a prominent win somewhere. But where? And which of his
current team can deliver it?
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