Wednesday, September 8, 2010 - 8:30 AM

As we all know by now, President Obama and General Petraeus hope to win the war in Afghanistan through a strategy of escalated counterinsurgency warfare. Yesterday, I suggested that they ought to be thinking about a Plan B in case (or when) their approach fails. With splendid timing, on Wednesday the New America Foundation will provide that Plan B, in a report entitled "A New Way Forward: Rethinking U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan." (You can watch a press conference on the report at 12 noon on Wednesday here, or read study director Steve Clemons' summary here.)
Full disclosure: I was a member of the Study Group, so you won't be surprised to hear that I agree with most of its contents. But don't let that stop you from reading the report and pondering its arguments carefully.
To whet your appetite, here are the Study Group's five main recommendations:
But wait, there's more! The Study Group also identified eleven important "myths" in the current debate on Afghanistan. Here they are (I've omitted the Group's assessment of what the reality on each one is):
If you're a regular reader of this blog, you'll know why I think a lot of these claims are mistaken. If you want to know what the realities are, read the full Study Group report. And kudos to Steve Clemons and the other members of the Study Group for providing the administration with an alternative approach. We're going to need one.
YURI CORTEZ/AFP/Getty Images
I always get a kick out of these never-ending, oh-so-allegedly sober and deep policy-recommendation lists from groups like this. Lists, they're always lists, never seeming to settle on what's the main problem.
Focusing on that main problem then—that the U.S. simply doesn't have any vital national interest in being in Afghanistan at the present—instead of a list how about a one-item statement? E.g.:
"Get the hell out but while doing so say loud and clear that we got eyes in the sky and other places and our planes and maybe some of our other stuff and people will be back as often as necessary if and when in our sole judgment we see the territory of Afghanistan harboring people who we believe pose a threat to us," period.
Who the hell cares if Afghanistan reverts to the Taliban, so long as it's the Taliban sans al Queada? Let the Talib's flood back into Afghanistan from Pakistan and thereby help stabilize Pakistan too. And who believes we need some sort of permanent feet on the ground to prevent any large-scale al-Queda-type encampments or installations—which of course are the only kind that have any real chance of hurting us? If any are found right now they aren't taken care of via boots on the ground but JDams from the air or cruise missiles from the ocean.
Get out, and then you can make all the lists you want of where all the money saved thereby should go and debate that, deeply and soberly....
(from the report)
Myth #11
If the Obama administration scales back the mission in Afghanistan, Republicans will portray it as “soft” and the Democratic Party will pay a big political price in the 2010 and 2012 elections.
Reality: Our strategy in Afghanistan should be based on U.S. national interests, not partisan politics. Moreover, the war is increasingly unpopular with the American people. Voters will support a strategy that reduces costs, emphasizes counter-terrorism, and begins to bring U.S. troops home.
A weak observation, IMO. Any regime's first priority is survival, and the Big O is facing a bad November, not to mention 2012. It'd be looney to think he could spin an outright withdrawal past the broadside he'd get from the Yahoo Party. He needs a fig leaf, if he can pull it off even then.
As Don noted, HIllary isn't exactly a professional diplomat, but this is fundamentally a very polically problem; its those guys like Chas Freeman, now out-to-pasture, who occassionally tell the truth, and you know the rest......
Were it only possible to JUST do what was obviously in America's best interests, when you think about who defines what those should be. AIPAC, for example, has a legitimate voice as a US interest group, and hence all the command performances by the National Security Staff, so that they can be judged not only for the notes they hit, but how well they are sung.
FUNDAMENTALLY, when you think about it, this gets down to deciding who runs the country. If our policies are the net result of the influence of a plutocracy (including foreigners), or if the government really is the servant of all US citizens, weighed equally. If its the later, you get very quickly to Sin Nombres conclusion. I think these things go in cycles, and we're now in a heavy top-down governance mode, as evidence by the trend in income disparities, which equate pretty direct with governmental influence.
Don't expect to get totally out he central asian woods anytime soon.
Well, I have read all that. Where is plan C?
You wrongly assume we want to resolve tensions there. I don't disagree that what you've proposed would be essential to do that. But, we've kept Pakistan and Afghanistan at odds since the partition of India and Pakistan. We don't want the Pashtuns to unite and dominate, as they do demographically the two countries.
Are we not interested in keeping China's Western border calm, prone for development and trade. Have we ever tried to solve Kashmir? Have we ever even hosted talks between India and Pakistan?
Sin, I agree with you.
"Get the hell out but while doing so say loud and clear that we got eyes in the sky and other places and our planes and maybe some of our other stuff and people will be back as often as necessary if and when in our sole judgment we see the territory of Afghanistan harboring people who we believe pose a threat to us," period.
I just wish you were asking this of the Israelis in the West Bank and Gaza
With reference to what I wrote before saying we should just get the hell out of Afghanistan and watch it from afar and reserve the right to go back in to not allow terrorist activity against us to be planned or staged there SCOTTINDALLAS wrote:
"Sin, I agree with you.... I just wish you were asking this of the Israelis in the West Bank and Gaza"
Well Scott, I *would* ask this of the Israelis, but just generally no different than I would ask every government to not to steal land and not to commit the mayhem they must to effectuate same. But otherwise I don't think it's our business because I don't think we have any more specific interest there than just seeing that no other country goes about about stealing land and causing humanitarian chaos. So if they just wanted to decline that request and continue as they are doing I don't see where we have either the right, responsibility or ability to stop 'em. Even though in my further opinion they are maybe not just hurting themselves continuing, but indeed perhaps are committing national suicide.
Needless to say the flip side of this coin is that it also means that I don't think we should be giving one penny of support to Israel so long as it keeps on doing what it is doing. It's just not our business in the first place, and, even worse, it's *against* our interests to be taking Israel's side.
Israel has a right to pursue what it sees as its own best interests. So do we.
I'm not sure I totally agree, but I thought you much more pro-Israeli than that. Thanks for clarifying.
Missing focus on Pakistan in the report
Clearly the New America Foundation’s report titled ‘A New Way Forward: Rethinking U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan’ does NOT focus on most fundamental problem faced by Afghanistan and emphasized by Afghanistan’s national security advisor Rangin Dadfar Spanta in Washington Post on 8/23/10: “the terrorists’ main mentor (Pakistan) continues to receive billions of dollars in aid and assistance. How is this fundamental contradiction justified? Despite facing a growing domestic terror threat, Pakistan “continues to provide sanctuary and support to the Quetta Shura, the Haqqani network, the Hekmatyar group and Al Qaeda. Dismantling the terrorist infrastructure “requires confronting the state of Pakistan that still sees terrorism as a strategic asset and foreign policy tool”.
Since US does NOT want to use its aid leverage to force Pakistan to stop interfering in Afghanistan by destroying Mullah Omar’s QST and Haqqani’s HQN headquartered in Pakistan, ’new way forward’ by New America Foundation is NO solution for ’way out of Afghanistan’ for US as proposed by David Rothkopf.
Only way out for US from Afghanistan is ’to invade and occupy Pakistan for a sustained period of time - 8 to 10 years - and destroy all the terrorist sanctuaries spawned there’ but US has neither the resources nor the willingness to undertake such a mission after nine long years of war.
"our planes and maybe some of our other stuff and people will be back as often as necessary if and when in our sole judgment we see the territory of Afghanistan harboring people who we believe pose a threat to us"
Don't you think that this was the logic of 9/11 terrorists (replacing "Afghanistan" by "US", and assuming that 9/11 was not a false flag operation)? And having "our sole judgment" as the reason for military action is simply criminal?
Since all the discussion is, anyway, no more than a wishful thinking, why not to dream about the possibility when the US authorities would say instead, loudly and unequivocally, that they are sorry for the death and sorrow they brought upon the country?
Quoting something I wrote earlier SASHA wrote:
"Don't you think that this was the logic of 9/11 terrorists (replacing "Afghanistan" by "US", and assuming that 9/11 was not a false flag operation)? And having "our sole judgment" as the reason for military action is simply criminal?"
Respectively, because I understand and sympathize with your sentiments here, my answer would still be no.
That is, no, I don't think it can be said bin Laden launched either 9/11 against us (or before when he initiated other hostilities against us and started killing our people), because he believed we "posed a threat to him." Yes, he may have thought our culture posed a threat to his religion and culture, and yes he also certainly felt he was retaliating for what we've abetted vis a vis the Palestinians. But I don't think you can equate the violent attack on us on 9/11 or on the Cole or etc. with our culture merely posing challenges to his culture and/or religion, nor does bin Laden even have the standing to invoke name of the Palestinians I don't think.
All I was saying was we should return to what seemed the sensible, definable, seemingly durable nationalistic idea that the world has gradually accepted to the effect that one country (not "religion" or "culture") does not attack or invade or occupy a second unless at the very least there is a clear and imminent threat emanating from that other to the first country, period. And in terms of Afghanistan I believe because it had hosted al Queda, and then refused to give it up, we had the perfect right to go in and invade that country to try to get it, and whack the Taliban when they tried to stop us from doing so. And aside from of course feeling sorry for the damage done to civilians in doing so no I don't think we owe any apology to the Taliban. However I don't think we should have tried to occupy Afghanistan and then somehow try to displace its culture and etc. with something else.
I would also note that I suspect there's been relatively small or moderate "death and sorrow" we've brought to Afghanistan, but concede that whatever we brought during the occupation stage we should not only feel sorry for but have no valid excuse for either. Iraq on the other hand is different in that I don't think we have any excuse for any of what we caused there, and that the death and sorrow have been massive beyond belief.
You dismiss Bin Laden seeing us as a threat. But, I don't think he is wrong here. I think we should review his claims against Muslim Just war theory and the record of our involvement. This will beg the question of whether Muslim Just war theory is rational or not.
Ok, in short, Muslim Just war theory asserts that if a invader/occupier prevents you from living your life, practicing your faith, sows chaos and instability then you have cause to fight. But, if they will negotiate in good faith, honor their treaties a Muslim has no cause to fight them. Let me jump the gun and suggest that this sounds fair to me, but maybe I'm biased or something.
So, let's examine the record. We had, before he had attacked our embassy in Somalia, attacked to Cole, the Khobar Towers or 9/11; invaded Iraq--which was perhaps legitimate, enforced an embargo that kept humanitarian good out and necessary infrastructure such as chlorine for water treatment. We had bases in Saudi Arabia--which is problematic but below the threshold. We had aided, abetted the Israeli occupation of Palestinians, bombing of Lebanon, supported dictatorships in Egypt, Jordan, Iran (a fait accompli) and Pakistan. Our meddling in Afghanistan, even at that time was Machiavellian. We've vastly expanded our sins in the Muslim world since then, falling into his trap. We rejected Mullah Omar's overtures to extradite Bin Laden, allow Saddam to steal off to exile, seek reproachment with Iran, we've since tortured Muslims, used drones to murder innocents in Pakistan, Yemen at the very least, not to forget armed and aided Ethiopia in invading Eritrea, and Somalia.
We don't fare too well in these check lists, nor do we fair too well under our own standards.
SCOTTINDALLAS wrote:
"You dismiss Bin Laden seeing us as a threat. But, I don't think he is wrong here. I think we should review his claims against Muslim Just war theory and the record of our involvement. This will beg the question of whether Muslim Just war theory is rational or not."
Well first of all Scott I'd commend you for forthrightly taking a look at things from bin Laden's point of view. As you note though just because he has a "Just War" theory don't make that theory ... just. (For want of a better word.)
The essence of the question as I see, and indeed as we both seem to agree, is whether bin Laden was ... "justified" in attacking the U.S. out of any valid claim to self-defense, right?
Well, first of all and as my response to Sasha concentrated on, just as a practical matter I don't like the idea that we ought to recognize as valid any claims of "self-defense" from anyone other than *countries.* I.e., on a nationalistic basis. So that no, I don't think bin Laden ought to be able to claim he acted in self-defense of ... all arabs, or all muslims. The world, it seems to me, hard learned its lesson from seeing things in such racial, tribal or religious ways, and while it's far from perfect I think we are better off seeing international rights and responsibilities and etc. from the perspectives of formal nations and countries. So whether bin Laden can be thought of as a Saudi, or an Afghan, no the U.S. didn't do anything to those countries that merited his claim to violence in the name of self-defense.
However, recognizing that nationalism in this sense is very artificial, and is nowhere near perfect, and that to a great extent the "countries" of the ME were only drawn out by British or Western hands on a map ... okay, let's give bin Laden a pass on this grounds. (Even though, again because of pragmatics but also the good that flows therefrom, I don't think *anyone* should be given such a pass because I think the idea of nationalism has been very valuable and has given us some near-global understandings that have been very hard-won things, and that has at least provided some clear, coherent and sensible avenues for resolving difficulties other than endless stupid wars.)
As I said though let's forget all that and give bin Laden a pass and grant him the right to at least argue his claim self-defense for ... all of Islam. Did he really act validly in that defensive cause?
You make some points in this regard, I don't deny. Esp. with our embargo of Iraq and then our (near insane) invasion of same.
However, I think you would grant that bin Laden has a huge incentive to grab any justification he can in aid of his argument, and I think that's what he was doing with those two items in particular. He was never a huge fan of Saddam for instance. And, more importantly, I don't think it can be said—nor do I think that he really believes—that our embargo or invasion of Iraq was really a part of the ... "war on Islam" that he thinks we were waging. That is, not really done by us with the target being Islam itself. Nor done by us with any real view to permanently stealing Iraqi land even for instance.
That is, overwhelmingly it seems to me, bin Laden's real self-defense claim is not truly about our mere presence here or base there or puppet elsewhere, but is instead a *cultural/religious* claim. That, in essence, what he is *really* defending is his culture and religion from ... our culture. Right?
Sure of course he ritualistically (and opportunistically) objects to our presence here or there, but I think they are to him mere *indicia* of the *success* of what he sees as our cultural threat. After all if his brand of fundamentalist Islam was going very strongly and in control in the ME and we were't perceived as being hostile to same ... what would he care if we merely had a base here or there? In fact if they were bases to fight ... godless communism from for instance, you just know he'd be *welcoming* them, right?
No; the real the reason he's feeling "defensive" (which I'd admit) isn't because of some mere physical thing, but instead because he believes our culture is "winning" in the hearts and minds of his own people.
So what then is to be said about anyone making *this* claim of self-defense? That a person like bin has the right to commit acts of violence and war against another country or society or people (or "civilization") merely because his *own* people are *voluntarily* accepting the culture of that other country or society or etc.?
No sensible person I think would or could perceive that it's a valid exercise in "self-defense" to keep one population from voluntarily accepting certain ideas or values or tastes or etc. of another. And while of course the very reasonableness of this might tempt one to disbelieve that bin Laden believes otherwise, aha!, it turns out, that's *exactly* what he believes, isn't it? That's why he was so at home with the Taliban. *Forcing* people to worship Allah, and forcing men to wear beards, and forcing women to dress in certain ways, and making laws in absolute, strict accord with their religious beliefs, and etc. and so forth, right?
Moreover it strikes me it is this very ... insensibility on the part of bin Laden that *keeps* that arab and moslem populations from really embracing him. They know damn well they like certain aspects of Western culture, and know damn well he'd be the first to deny them that choice. No better evidence, to me, of the illegitimacy of bin Laden's "self-defense" claim than the fact that the very people he claims to be "defending" don't seem to want his "defense" all that much.
That said I'll agree with you 100%+ of how moronically we've fallen into his trap. Nothing could better garner support for him than our insanity in invading Iraq and occupying Afghanistan. Nothing. Beyond criminal on our part: stupidity on stilts.
But ... notice: Even despite same bin Laden's star *still* ain't very high in the arab/moslem world, is it? Indeed his name and that of his movement hardly even seems to move the needle in terms of being influential over there, true? And so again I'd ask what other metric would you propose to better judge the legitimacy of his claim of self-defense of others ... other than the negative verdict of the very people he claims to be defending?
I don't agree with what you've just argued, but I wish you'd focused more clearly on the "just war" theory. I derived that from my own reading of the Quran. It repeatedly states that "[if they come into your lands and subvert your way of life]"
So, no, it's not just the occasional base, but rather our support of dictators. Remember, this is an Egyptian movement that's metastasized. It naturally found fertile ground in Pakistan--those are arguably the two most egregious examples of our insertion/interference/meddling in their democracy/right to serve the interests of their own people. I think you'd even admit that as far as our support for Israel, perhaps most offensively our diplomatic cover is another offense.
Those are major disruptions in the democratic will of those countries. These policies run counter to our own ideals. Now, we have a duty to, and wisdom and prudence would guide us to check ourselves for any offenses that we might be unnecessarily causing. (You get shoved in a bar, your reaction should differ if you were stepping on someone's toes or not)
We should be willing to look at our own national interests. Does our Pakistani and Egyptian policy comport with our ideals? Are these breaches of our druthers yielding great rewards? Is there a way to split the difference? I wrote the CIA, (fearing I had said enough wild-eyed shit I'd better state my case clearly for them) suggesting the liberalizing of the press, followed by development of other parties initially in local affairs, then lower houses of legislature, then higher ultimately full and free elections.
Our Egypt policy is largely there to protect Israel. So, this policy would insist that we address the I/P issue, before full democratization. This addresses the legitimate grievances expressed by Bin Laden. This would peel off the many who see these legitimate, indefensible offenses, from the other charges which I'm inclined to agree with you aren't so substantive.
But, rather than dividing Bin Laden from many moderates, we seem to be framing policies so that it does look like a war against Islam. I've long said, that it's hard to argue against the notion that we are at war against Islam, we should craft our policies to make that clearer. As is, we made many Muslims ambivalent regarding US, that is a war we can't win.
SCOTTINDALLAS wrote:
"... I wish you'd focused more clearly on the "just war" theory. I derived that from my own reading of the Quran. It repeatedly states that "[if they come into your lands and subvert your way of life]"
Well I don't know anything detailed about it and certainly have never read the Quran and can only assume, in addition to your seemingly fine encapsulation of it that it's not all that different from the "Christian" "just war" idea.
However, obviously all war-makers will try to seize on whatever "just war" theory or ideology that comes from their religious or cultural or national background regardless of whether that is what is motivating them, and again I'd just respectfully say I think that's what bin Laden has done.
On the other hand even to the extent that bin Laden is "validly" acting according to the Quran's "just war" theory, and assuming (which seems reasonable) that you've correctly characterized it as "com[ing] into your lands and subvert[ing] your way of life," well I guess I'd say, I don't see why we have to pay any homage to that theory.
First of all of course there's its medieval-ness so to speak in that clearly in the modern world no-one is going to honor the idea that one can commit terrorism against another country merely because ... they have people and buildings and businesses and etc. "on your lands." In the main I suspect the muslim and arab people don't mind seeing Shell Oil stations around, and they certainly have no trouble buying Sony CD's and Dell Computers and etc., etc. That "come into your lands" business isn't just medieval, it's overwhelmingly not even accepted by the muslim world anymore clearly. Unlike bin Laden, they don't seem to wanna live in a cave.
And, second of all and as I said before and as is somewhat related, I don't think bin Laden can justifiably claim the right to defend against a "subversion" of the muslim "way of life" when the subversion he means is a *voluntarily* acceptance by muslims of a different way of life. And again that's clearly what he *does* mean as shown by his belief in the Taliban way of doing things of forcing people to practice his religion, and killing those who refuse. (To the point of stoning women to death for insisting on showing their ankles it seems,)
So no, I don't think bin Laden is really motivated by any muslim "just war" theory, and even if he is, I'm sorry, it's just not a theory that I think we should recognize any obligation take same into account. In any fashion. Certainly not moral, and indeed given its medieval-ness not even any intellectual account either.
Especially since, as I said before as well, don't really seem there's a helluva lot of muslims that are recognizing bin Laden as being all that authoritative vis a vis the theory.
Entirely with you however that, as nuts as it seems, our policies over there can certainly appear as tailor-made to change their minds and make bin Laden a hero, that's for sure.
Is bin Laden's existence or his ideas (whatever they are) have any influence on the
present war in Afghanistan? I believe, not. We are told that
the US forces fight Taliban in Afghanistan. Is it true? To a
small extent, yes, but the main fact is that the total majority of
Afghanistan's population does not accept foreigners with
guns in their country - period. Be it British, Soviet, or the US.
It has little to do with religion, culture (whatever it means), etc.
See e.g.
http://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2010/06/british-afghanistan-government
The bloodier and the longer the conflict, the more unpleasant
forces it unleashes - be it the North alliance warlords or Taliban.
The Soviet occupation of Afghanistan resulted in the end of
Soviet empire. The present empire seems doing its best to end
in the same manner.
"we had the perfect right to go in and invade that country..."
Could we try to see 9/11 as a tiny sliver of mirror which
shows us what a murder of civilian population by an
air bombing is - and remember that it is this very activity,
and on much higher scale, in which the US excelled
since the time of WWII? And understanding this would make
any argument for the war a pure hypocrisy?
SASHA wrote:
"Could we try to see 9/11 as a tiny sliver of mirror which
shows us what a murder of civilian population by an
air bombing is - and remember that it is this very activity,
and on much higher scale, in which the US excelled
since the time of WWII? And understanding this would make
any argument for the war a pure hypocrisy?"
If I understand you then Sasha you feel that because we air bombed in WWII it was hypocrisy for us to have responded to 9/11 by going to war with bin Laden?
You have a point I think, but I also think it's somewhat shy of being comprehensive. For one, for example, it's a bit Whiggish in that while aerial bombing of civilian targets seems to have just been widely approved back during WWII in the West, I rather doubt that's true anymore. Clearly bin Laden still thinks so though.
And, as they say, hypocrisy is the tribute virtue pays to vice.
And etc., etc.
"Sasha you feel that because we air bombed in WWII it was hypocrisy for us to have responded to 9/11 by going to war with bin Laden?
You have a point I think, but I also think it's somewhat shy of being comprehensive. For one, for example, it's a bit Whiggish in that while aerial bombing of civilian targets seems to have just been widely approved back during WWII in the West, I rather doubt that's true anymore. Clearly bin Laden still thinks so though."
I wrote "since WWII", not "in WWII". The aerial bombing of civilian targets
was in full swing during the Vietnam war.
About "widely approved" - by whom? By the Allies governments -
yes, by the public - that is the matter of propaganda (as you see it now).
In a sense, yes, they are widely approved presently (if done by us,
of course). Those responsible for millions of civilian deaths
during Vietnam war were lavishly praised, never persecuted (and those
alive continue to be praised - say, mr.Kissinger). I do not know what
Bin Laden thinks (if he is alive), but, again, it is completely irrelevant
for the subject.
The actions of our authorities are better explained if you take
their logic (and mental abilities) to be that of petty gangsters.
The main reason for Iraq invasion was that Saddam should
have been exemplary punished for treason (he served the
US during the war against Iran, and had audacity to
turn then against the boss), for the Afghanistan invasion - to
show on somebody weak how terrible we are. The label of
"the war with Bin Laden" is mere pretense.
>And, as they say, hypocrisy is the tribute virtue pays to vice.
And after such tribute, it turns into vice.
SASHA wrote:
" The aerial bombing of civilian targets
was in full swing during the Vietnam war....
And after such tribute, it turns into vice."
Well I think I'd challenge you as to the first assertion to cite some example (really? pretty purely civilian targets?), and anyway I think that mores of war have changed since Vietnam too. (Esp. with the advent of so-called "smart" munitions.) But you got me cold with the second re vices. (And got a howl of laughter from me at your cleverness with same too. Good one; I wish I'd have said that.)
Still chuckling....
thank you! I am flattered that you like the comment.
"Well I think I'd challenge you as to the first assertion to cite some example (really? pretty purely civilian targets?)"
I am not a historian, but internet helps. Consider just the bombing of Cambodia
(a branch of the Vietnam war); I am citing Wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Freedom_Deal
where you can find exact references):
The summary of its last section:
From March 1969 to August 1973 the US dropped on Cambodia
540,000 tons of bombs; during 1973 it was 250,000 tons. It was primarily high explosive. Compare with 180,000 tons dropped on Japan in WWII (primarily lightweight incendiary). The carpet bombing.
But sure, the targets were not purely civilian (like Pentagon on 9/11, you know)
"Transcripts of telephone conversations reveal that by December 1970 Nixon's dissatisfaction with the success of the bombings prompted him to order that they be stepped up. "They have got to go in there and I mean really go in," he told Kissinger. "I want them to hit everything. I want them to use the big planes, the small planes, everything they can that will help out there, and let's start giving them a little shock." Kissinger responded by relaying the following order to the Air Force: "A massive bombing campaign in Cambodia. Anything that flies on anything that moves."
Don't you think that my petty gangster simile is to the point here?
SASHA wrote:
"Don't you think that my petty gangster simile is to the point here?"
Well certainly you've cited some gangsterish talk, and not petty either. But my sense is that it was just talk as I don't recall ever reading anyone who really even directly charged that in Vietnam or Cambodia the U.S. intentionally bombed purely civilian targets.
On the other hand I said before that I saw at least some merit in your point, and of course if one bombs so much that civilians are killed at a rate that they would have been even if directly targeted, then I'd agree there's no difference. I don't think you'd find the latter true though so again I think the merit to your point is limited. But it isn't non-existant that's for sure. And I'm still jealous over that previous great line you had.
Plan B is long overdue (Plan A has been a failure)
One point has particular relevance:
"Downsize and eventually end military operations in southern Afghanistan, and reduce the U.S. military footprint. The U.S. should draw down its military presence, which radicalizes many Pashtuns and is an important aid to Taliban recruitment."
Only problem is that it may be too late for Plan B. We've already been stuck in the quagmire for over 9 years, and the body count - of US and coalition dead - is just starting to rise.
From today's Slate Magazine (Slatest) morning edition:
'Taliban leader Mullah Omar called on his fellow Afghans to redouble their efforts and press the United States to withdraw from their country, arguing that the NATO-led coalition is losing the war. "The victory of our Islamic nation over the invading infidels is now imminent and the driving force behind this is the belief in the help of Allah and unity among ourselves," Omar said Wednesday in a speech to mark the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. "Put all your strength and planning behind the task of driving away the invaders and regaining independence of the country," he added, according to AFP. At one point during his speech, Omar even addressed Americans directly, saying that, while he recognized the effort they had made, they achieved nothing but defeat and had wasted billions of dollars of tax money. "But your rulers, instead of admitting their wrong policies, and seeking a rational exit, want to try the hackneyed and failed process once more as an effort to compensate for their defeats and distract your attention and that of the public of the world from their debacles," he said.'
From his refuge within Pakistan, Mullah Omar mocks the US and its western allies and calls out our leaders to confess their errors. And, another article here states that a force of 30,000 Afghan National Army troops, police, and coalition personnel are going after a force of 1,000 insurgents in Afghanistan. For real? Does anyone else believe this shows how ridiculous our effort is?
I agree that we need to regain power in Afghanistan to stay strong. I also agree that by slowly reducing the power and number of people in Afghanistan we will be able to leave. Even though we are still trying to slowly leave we need to still keep our eye on the target and not turn our heads. We also need to keep Afghanistan's neighbors involved in helping us, which means we can't turn our back on them at any point in time.
I feel that America can't be afraid to leave because of what may happen. We need to do what is best for America and keeping Americans safe.
The endgame is war with Pakistan. Send the troops home now and try something else.
"...Emphasize power-sharing and political inclusion."
Really? We should somehow wrestle control away from the powers-that-be in Afghanistan? Really?
You really think that this would be possible? Karazai would just agree to cede power?
Without this one happening, the rest are almost irrelevant because it's the lack of control that Karazai affects outside of Kabul that is really one of the main obstacles (so says the actual Afghanis).
Sure, leaving the generally-safe South would be great, as would getting other countries to have a stake in Afghanistan's future and even contribute to its economic system.
But, that's not going to happen.
So, if we leave, then we are leaving and the country will collapse and Iran will just fill the void leaving a criminal conspiracy as country as us used to be before we invaded, which will then cause such discord in the rest of the world that another invasion would be necessary.
The only problem with that is that the US would do it because the rest of the world knows that we would, so they do not do anything.
Damned if you do, damned worse if you don't.
In the long term, western hopes are not realistic without Afghan
The report and this discussion are interesting. However, I do not see much a provision for a discussion by Afghans who must directly confront problems of the conflict. They must also manage their way through complex webs of equally desperate faction leaders hoping not to die.
Amazingly, traditional community leaders and regional leaders have a long history of managing these kinds of problems. They will also find ways to protect themselves and their immediate families. They will find contacts within the webs of network and advance their interests and try to take advantage of any American aid that filters their way.
The Afghan styles and methods of conducting politics and business will have a substantial impact on any final outcome.
Without active and long term participation by the Afghans facing the dilemmas of war and the results of 30 years of devastation, no western plan or aspiration has a decent chance of producing worthwhile results.
Finally, if the people wanting a peace process or the war advocates do not have the capacity to generate a participatory process, then they will most likely not be able to produce a realistic and relevant plan.
Bob Spencer
wanted to pick this up anew. I meant to say in the intro to my last entry, that I didn't DISagree with you broadly. Anyway, back to our disagreements, (smile)
They don't resent Sony, they don't resent Shell gas stations, though you'll find generally Shell gas stations don't and couldn't exist. Gas is generally nationalized and subsidized. But, they might well (DO INDEED) resent the Shell refining facility. They suspect the terms of that deal and resent that foreigners are brought to serve as contractors and bosses over their natives.
What is not a matter of choice, what you missed in my arguments is our subversion of their democracy for Western aligned puppets. There's little voluntary about that. We can't defend it. And, these country's subjects are put off by it. While they fail to embrace Bin Laden, which I assure you they are far more ambivalent than we wish, than we need to win. And, it's our subversion of their leadership that is the heart of this. Or, even their imagined believe in our subversion that matters whether true or not, image is everything.
This happens to comport w/ their just war theory, and is a higher threshold than we have. That's what you missed in dismissing their just war theory, it's less favorable to hostility. How are we not indicted by our own Dec. of Ind? We sponsor tyranny, they have a duty to oppose it.
So, by our lights, or theirs they have the right. Maybe Bin Laden is over the line, but they are far to equivocal than we need. That is the fault of our neo-colonial policies.
SCOTTINDALLAS wrote:
"What is not a matter of choice, what you missed in my arguments is our subversion of their democracy for Western aligned puppets."
Well firstly I have to say that, as I suspect is true of all "just war" theories, the arab/muslim one as you have described it over the course of this thread is an amorphous one. First it's a "just cause" if one "comes onto their lands and subverts their way of life," and then it's "subverting their democracy for puppets."
Moreover I'd question what you mean by "their democracy" since my sense is that the arab/muslim ME states don't exactly have a strong tradition of democracy as we understand it at least. But indeed if you insist that they do have their own form of democracy, isn't the simple answer to ... "democratically" depose the subverted for non-"puppets"?
I find it tough to get a handle on this though given its generality so maybe you can spell out more specifically what you mean and give some examples
Anyway though while the subversion of arab/muslim leaders/governments certainly is a "just cause" for war in bin Laden's mind, it just doesn't seem to me that this is the case "in the arab street" generally speaking. Yeah, I know there's always grumbling and rumbling in certain quarters in certain arab/muslim states about the "subversion" you talk of, but where is the mass agreement with this? In what countries are there great mass demonstrations to depose the "subverted"? Who are the great leaders/spokespersons who one would expect to spring up to lead the cry to depose the subverted, and where are they?
Well for sure there's one wannabe: bin Laden. But as opposed to being hoisted on the shoulders of crowds anywhere, he's running from cave to cave. And neither does one see any other signs of significant acceptance of him generally in that "street." While certainly there's some sympathy for him in the arab street, his ability to attract adherents—particularly those willing to put their feet where their beliefs lead, meaning in bin Laden's camps and actively working in al Queda—can seem quite quite limited, doesn't it?
"So, by our lights, or theirs they have the right."
Well I don't doubt for a moment that bin Laden feels he so had that right. But of course probably *everyone* who has *ever* started a war felt they had the right to do, true? So I just don't understand the difference you are driving at here that's makes this important.
a problem that will never be solved!
right now it does not even matter what the study group suggests. the reason why i say this is because the conflict in Afghanistan is just getting worst everyday. The study group's first suggestion said that the u.s should fast track a peace process designed to decentralize power within Afghanistan and encourage a power sharing balance among the principal parties.How will this really help us end this war? It would not because even if a peace treaty is sign within each principal parties disagreement between the people will occur. Is as if creating a plan to fix things is just taking the u.s one step back then one step forward. I do believe that no matter what will get done to try and end this another conflict will arise to take us back to start and to the planing of how to resolve this big issue.
I applaud this rethinking of US strategy. This is just the kind of change we need the Obama administration to make. It is quite clear that the presence of U.S. troops, seen as occupiers, is a key factor in driving the insurgencies. No doubt other factors such as local power struggles come into play. Nevertheless, as you point out (and as has been pointed out by Afghans on the ground) the presence of U.S. troops brings more violence. The war in Afghanistan was never a just war and never really accomplished, nor could it accomplish, the goal of weakening and defeating Al Qaeda. The method of bombing villages and using the overwhelming firepower of the U.S. military has been both unjust and ineffective. The surge in Iraq coincided with the Sunni awakening which was responsible for much of the peace that the surge was supposedly offering. The attempt to recreate the effects of the Iraqi surge are not going well in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, as is also acknowledged by the report, the U.S. must not abandon Afghanistan. We have not only an ethical duty to help the Afghans rebuild their country, but also a strategic interest in doing so.
Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.
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