Posted By Stephen M. Walt Share

In anticipation of the upcoming Lisbon summit, my IR course at the Kennedy School held a mock "Oxford-style" debate on NATO's future yesterday, and the results were sufficiently interesting that I thought I'd share them with you. 

The resolution was "Resolved: This House Believes NATO Should be Disbanded." We assigned a team of students to take the pro and con, and then allowed the rest of the class break into small groups to discuss what they had heard from each team. Each small group then offered its own views on the subject, followed by a general discussion.

The class voted on the resolution both before and after the presentations and discussion. If you're a big NATO fan, the good news is that only one student (out of approximately forty) voted in favor of the resolution to dissolve NATO before the discussion, and nobody supported it afterwards. So based on this admittedly non-random sample, I'd say NATO is in very good shape, at least when it comes to public support. (NB: my class is quite diverse, and has students from all over the world).

By the way, this result is not due to the superior performance of the team that argued against the resolution; both teams did a good job of presenting the various pros and cons. Nor was I shilling for NATO as I led the discussion; if anything, I was trying to get them to see the idea of dissolution as a serious option. Yet it was clear that the class was strongly disposed to favor NATO's continued existence even before the discussion began, and that view strengthened the more they talked and listened.

I'd attribute this result to several rather obvious factors:

First, NATO has been around for sixty years, and has acquired a nearly iconic status among students and practitioners of foreign policy. Institutionalists often emphasize the "sticky" nature of well-established organizations, and NATO has been such a familiar part of the international landscape that hardly anyone feels comfortable supporting a resolution calling for its dissolution.

Second, NATO doesn't cost much anymore, and students don't see a lot of potential benefits from ending it. You know: if it ain't broke, don't fix it. The United States doesn't devote a lot of money to defending Europe (for the obvious reason that there's no serious threat there), and the Europeans are spending a lot less themselves. Ending the alliance would also involve some short-term costs (e.g., the United States would lose basing rights, etc.), and in a situation like this, the status quo naturally triumphs.

Third, many people still see NATO as an insurance policy against a deteriorating security environment in Europe, and (for Americans) as a way to retain political influence there. Dissolving NATO could lead to renewed security competition within Europe, or it might encourage the European countries to get serious about a common foreign and security policy. Neither of these outcomes is attractive from Washington's perspective: The United States doesn't like trouble in Europe, but it also doesn't want the trouble that a more united Europe could cause. NATO's continued existence helps avert both of these negative possibilities.

For these (and other) reasons, the real question to ask (and the resolution we should have asked them to debate) is not about NATO'S continued existence, but rather its continued relevance. 

Here the three big wild cards are 1) The effects of the latest round of European defense cuts (which will make out-of-area actions even more difficult in the future), 2) The lessons that NATO draws from the Afghan War, and 3) The rising importance of Asia. If Afghanistan is eventually seen as a successful operation that produced a positive result, then NATO's value will appear to be reaffirmed and support for it is bound to continue. If the Afghan war ends in a defeat or even some sort of messy compromise, then more people will ask if the Alliance ought to be in the nation-building business at all. And if it's not performing some sort of global policing duties, then what is it for? Finally, as the Asian balance of power starts to loom larger in everyone's consciousness, NATO's relevance will almost certainly decline even further. NATO may be willing to give the United States some modest assistance in the Gulf or in Central Asia, but it is hard to imagine Europe doing much of anything in some future conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea. Indeed, they'd be more likely to stand aloof and trade with both sides.

But those more worrisome scenarios lie some years away. What I can report is that NATO seems to be alive and well at the moment, at least if you ask my students.

GEORGES GOBET/AFP/Getty Images

 
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STEVENG

5:39 PM ET

October 28, 2010

European Unity

What trouble could a more unified Europe cause the U.S.? A more unified Europe seem like a net positive for the world to me.

 

J-BENTHAM

11:30 PM ET

October 28, 2010

Idiot Harvard Students and Teacher

Comments are roughly by paragraph.

That’s right. I forgot that everyone is the world goes to a school like Harvard.

You were trying to get them to see it as a serious option then they would have looked at it as a serious option, and not with the following factors that you list.

I'd attribute this result to several rather obvious factors:

People felt the same way about slavery. I’m sure Russia is comfortable with its dissolution. I’m sure most of Europe is comfortable with its dissolution, along with China, Japan, and, wait, the rest of the world?

The U.S spends more on defense than the rest of the world combined. The only point of having NATO is if it has power, or funding.

Isn’t there reason to believe that NATO is causing a deteriorating security situation in Europe as Russia really doesn’t like the fact that NATO is still expanding eastward? If the situation did deteriorate without NATO, could a more democratic force be put in place? A force that includes Europe and Russia? Shouldn’t Europeans be responsible for their own affairs and not the United States? This brings us to the issue of political influence. What type of “political influence” are we talking about? “If you don’t do this we’re going to bomb you” political influence? Yeah, I suppose continuing with NATO allows the US to act like the mob boss of the world. Whether or not this is even good for the US in the long-term (undoubtedly bad for the rest of the world in the short-term) is a contestable matter (Cuban Missile Crisis Anyone?). Russia, China, and the Middle East not only feel threatened but are threatened by NATO. What does “renewed security competition within Europe mean?” Does it mean that the Europeans are in charge of Europeans? Isn’t that Democratic? But we wouldn’t want them to actually work together. They might oppose US decisions, which I forgot were always right. Now that you mention it, is there any evidence of NATO contributing something productive to the world, ever? I think what Walt is really trying to say is that NATO makes it easier for us to do whatever the hell we want.

Its relevance is obvious: forced relevance. And no, that’s not the real question to ask. I now see what you mean about “not shilling for NATO; the contrary.”

Again, when has NATO ever been productive for the world as a whole? I seem to remember it being integral in almost destroying the world, but history never repeats itself.

What does he mean by “seen?” Does he mean, “if we rewrite the history books to show Afghanistan as “blundering efforts to do good,” much like Vietnam? Whose support will be reaffirmed? The support of elitist Harvard people and the “masters of mankind,” or the rest of the world that probably doesn’t like a dictatorial mob boss?

You’re really not leading the discussion anywhere are you?

What evidence do you have for this? Are you just making this stuff up?

I’m sure that if they knew the facts they would think differently, mainly the fact that NATO exists solely as a tool for US imperial dominance and that it’s destructive to the security of the world.

I’m not surprised that Walt and his students hold these views. They have been indoctrinated with the idea that the US can do whatever it wants because it owns the world and shouldn’t care what anyone else thinks. This ideology is extremely dangerous and it is telling that it is propagated at the most “elite” institutions. The word “elite” obviously has a double meaning. As Adam Smith put it, "the masters of mankind."

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

12:48 PM ET

October 30, 2010

keep in mind, the most

keep in mind, the most authoritarian members of society are the Harvard elite. All elites are authoritarian, lest they would suspect themselves. They have to believe a just world brought them to the pinnacle of educational institutions. They have to believe that the way they kissed ass, garnered influence (nepotism) or rose to such potential is part of a just world. Authoritarians don't doubt, question facts or narratives as those are what put them where they are.

Of course half the students of Harvard are legacy students who are sooo, very much a product of these institutional forces, why would they bite the gilded hand feeding them? Remarkably Kennedy, perhaps seeing the corruption of his father and having served in war understood the fog of war, questioned authority. Our present president doesn't have the critical thinking skills to challenge his generals. He doesn't have the life experience to challenge them. Nor, does he have the balls. Not that Obama isn't smart enough, he just comes from a system that doesn't reward challenging it. He comes from a system where the truth will get you kicked out of the country club, board room, or get you fired or sequestered to irrelevance.

 

DICKERSON3870

8:34 AM ET

October 29, 2010

Anders Fogh Rasmussen...

...would make a good used car salesman!

 

DICKERSON3870

8:50 AM ET

October 29, 2010

Isn't NATO morphing into...

...the neocon's wet dreamt "League of (so-called) Democracies"? That's the way it looks to me.

 

DANSMITH17

2:11 PM ET

October 29, 2010

Future

It does disappoint that a group of future leaders all show such a consensus about anything.

NATO as NATO rather than some individual states will almost certainly never again get involved in something as ambitious as Afghanistan and Stephen is right the idea of them becoming involved in any future conflict over Taiwan or Korea is simply not on the table.

As a purely defensive alliance against a possible changed Russia then status quo might as well stay in place but as a possible world policeman the europeans are both not interested and not willing to spend the money.

 

BOB SPENCER

4:28 PM ET

October 29, 2010

What if NATO became a realist?

Should we admit that Central Asia and Afghanistan contains strategic and natural resource value? Shouldn’t we admit that NATO, the U.S. and the West in general have not been effective in enhancing or protecting our interests.

If we are realistic, we can see that to enhance the West’s interests, we need a significant change in approach. For example, China does not have one overseas base, but they have tremendous influence in Central Asia as well as Pakistan and a growing influence in Afghanistan.

It is little wonder that Karzai is promoting peace talks. The interconnected linkages of political factions and the drug trade along with other alliance webs provides a fait-accompli that factional leaders in various parts and pieces of the Taliban and the government have already reached a deal that excludes the West.

Organized crime dominates so much of Russian business and Central Asian business that gaining more influence in Central Asia is a natural procession. China thrives in that environment. For example, unofficial intelligence reports indicate that crime groups control as much as 80 percent of all private business and up to 40 percent of the Federation’s wealth.

NATO has a dilemma. It can try to participate in that environment; NATO can isolate itself and concede the region to China and Russia; or NATO can try to contain the regions effects upon the West.

NATO is primarily a military organization, but national security now requires a far broader scope of knowledge, understanding and activity. We need to learn things like how to recruit power and business networks into our sources of wealth and business development. We even need to learn how to reduce the influence of their drug trade through our domestic isolated, segregated and alienated communities. These issues directly affect our national security, but we have yet to learn how to deal with them domestically much less internationally.

Bob Spencer

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

1:01 PM ET

October 30, 2010

legalizing drugs would fix

legalizing drugs would fix most of what you're talking about. The rest, free markets will solve, or are internal issues. What gets me is that all the other issues of corruption can be dealt with in trade groups. Russia has a lot of natural gas, but they need European markets to sell their other goods.

Just as the American consumer was so important that we could have gotten substantial trade concessions had anyone in Congress been willing to sell the naked leg of American consumers to foreign manufacturers. BUT, and this is the sticky wicket that caused your problems, Bob, and makes NATO both feckless and dangerous--corrupt politicians.

It was corrupt politicians who sold campaign contributions for American's jobs, manufacturing plants and the like. It was corrupt politicians who sold our super magnets and military technology to China and others. It is corrupt politicians who run NATO and undermine that institution.

Trade groups and ad-hoc alliances can address all these issues as effectively as NATO.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

12:48 PM ET

October 30, 2010

"And if it's not performing

"And if it's not performing some sort of global policing duties, then what is it for?"

I think you've been a disservice to your students. NATO historically exists to defend Europe from Russia. (I would assert that NATO raised enmity between Russia and Europe. Second, the Georgia fiasco shows that NATO isn't very resolved to support it's core mission. Further, this mission creep has undermined NATO.

So, what I can't understand is how in the world NATO gets involved in an attack in the South China Sea? How does an attack on Taiwan equal an attack on the North Atlantic?

I'd assert that the US needs to end NATO to test if NATO is needed. It's not like ending NATO would mean severing all ties. What ending NATO might do is to help the US commoditize it's security services--which is the only way I can support US bases abroad, namely at the expense and invitation of the host country.

What worries me about continuing NATO is that is antagonizes Russia. This antagonism helps to justify NATO but arguably only serves to give false comfort to Europe. NATO expansion is problematic, and violates a promise we made to Russia years ago. Finally, re-constituting a NATO on an ad-hoc basis wouldn't be tough. There is vast cooperation, sharing of equipment and technology that would continue with or without NATO.

 

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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