...but the discouraging thing about Mubarak's statement last night is that it included no clear directive to his supporters and allies to refrain from violence against anti-government demonstrators. This was bound to raise suspicion that his stated willingness to step aside after the next election could not be taken at face value.

Apart from that, the fact is that Mubarak is a man well into his eighties. We have to consider the possibility that decisions coming out of his office are only partly his, and that government supporters as well as the opposition in the streets haven't fully settled on what they want to come out of this week's events.

Mubarak's moves these last several days appear to be his attempt to stall, while forces supporting him foment the type of violence that could lead the hopeful people of Egypt to give up on their demands for regime change in favor of peace in the streets. As we learned in our own revolution, sometimes the process of building a new form of poltical organization is messy - even bloody. Sometimes, failure is the first result, but the Egyptian people deserve the opportunity to work it out themselves, with less unwanted advice from outsiders.

Mubarak has been in power too long - and his people are tired of him and his cronies. He's had thirty years to advance the cause of the average Egyptian and he's failed thoroughly at that job. He's 80+ years old and the only reason for him to stay in office is to hand-pick his eventual successor - he's already tried that and failed! His people won't stand for it. The only reason for him to stay until September is to put his thumb on the scales in favor of an eventual successor as well.

While setting up a 'caretaker' or interim government might ease the transition to whatever comes next, it could also increase the opportunity for mischief on nthe part of Mr Mubarak's supporters. And it could force the Egyptian Army to take over the streets to quell the carnage, and that would pose a real danger to the possibility of a successful future civilian government.

The only real solution is the one Mr Mubarak has thus far rejected - he needs to leave, and leave soon. He said he wanted to die in Egypt - he may get his wish if he does not get the hell out soon. If he choses the right course and leaves, he may save his neck, and it could hasten the next step in Egypt's revolution.

Though presented with some caveats, I find your comparison of Egypt's current story line with the revolutions and/or political upheavals in Iran, France, Russia & especially Iraq(a nation invaded by the U.S.) to be non-starters.

This statement is particularly revealing: 'I have my hunches and hopes, but nobody can be really confident about their forecasts at this stage. (Heck, at first I didn't think the upheaval in Tunisia would spread!)

This suggests to me that you are still acting as an apologist for your own prior failing to appreciate the uniqueness of what is happening in Egypt & consequently, offering commentary that simply serve to obfuscate the meaning of the important events still unfolding as I write this post.

Put simply, I would prefer that you allow the events themselves serve as a 'teaching moment'.

Two weeks ago you argued that social unrest would never meaningfully spread beyond Tunisia to Egypt. Now you have turned on a dime without explaining your reality refuted assessment. It is hard to take your argument seriously, when you so conveniently dispense with your previously asserted position. Perhaps if you reconciled your earlier wrong prediction with your new stance, you might regain some shred of credibility?

Not only is it the most important thing going, but we can learn much from analysis during pivotal moments. Lots of predictions are going to be wrong, of course, but that may not be so important.

What is important is that upheaval gives us the chance to see the fundamental beliefs, biases and motivations of anyone who participates or comments on them. For example, it is interesting to note that right wingers didn't rally to a man around Eliot Abrams view that this is an outbreak of democracy that proves Bush right—because some are concerned that this was an outbreak of democracy that might imperil Israel, or an outbreak of "Muslim" anger that confirmed their stereotypes. All these contradictions were always inherent in the neo-con project, and here we see them in clear form, as the various commenters cannot even line up together.

I wouldn't want the insights to come only by looking at the other side. This is also a chance to see what you—and we—are made of.

Good insights

The army does seem to be the key. But after last night's pro-Mubarak violence, it does seem that as far as the pro-democracy people in Tahrir Square are concerned, the shine is off the army. In some ways, it seems that the army has enabled the pro-Mubarak forces. They promised to protect the protesters, they did not. Prior to the Million Man day, the protesters going into the Square were closely searched by the army. The army did not search the pro-Mubarak forces, but let them pass.

AlJazeera has shown the ID's of several pro-Mubarak thugs. They had government security ID's. Ben Wiedeman reported that many of the pro-Mubarak protesters seemed to be bussed in from one factory or another. They were organized, they had continuous supplies of petrol for Molotov cocktails that were thrown thruout the night. Many reporters, and just plain foreigners, are being beaten on Cairo's streets by groups of pro-Mubarak thugs.. AlArabyia has a reporter in intensive care.

One reporter went to Heliopolis, an upscale area. The residents there, with a vested interest in Mubarak, that were interviewed, were virulently anti-Democracy protesters and also against the media, that they were fueling the protests. He too was chased off.

The thought kept running thru my mind re the army: What are they waiting for, instructions from Israel?

I actually predicted this, I also predict this will spread to the resource poor countries that are similar, Jordan, Morocco, Yemen and Syria. Again, as Chas. Krauthammer said, echoing the words that made the zio-nuts dismiss me, Syria's fall would be benign in Israel's mind. I suggest you've slandered Syria, they been good neighbors to Israel. But Jordan will fall, and this will drive you Zionuts over the edge. Especially as Hezbollah consolidates power and support among Christians and Sunis. The utter intransigence of Israel has been exposed, NATO is collapsing as is support for Israel in the EU. This leaves the US all alone in supporting Israel. Yet, the US is drowning in red ink. Our empire, the American Raj is collapsing to reference Eric Margolis, who's identified the same countries as vulnerable. These countries are resource poor and are slammed by the commodities speculation that is driving up these prices.

.I have just been watching the President saying, We are praying for Peace in Egypt, etc. etc. What on earth does that mean? Who are ‘we’? Is that a royal ‘we’ or does it include his wife and daughters? Perhaps he means the Administration? Or maybe the American people? It is true that Nixon once invited the US people to pray for an endangered Apollo crew and it seemed to work, but you must admit it’s an odd way to conduct foreign affairs.

As Obama and others have urged, Egypt needs to do all in its power to avoid mass violence. I think that violence will inevitably produce a dangerous outcome for both sides. If they can maintain a peaceful transition of power, then new elected officials will be able to get into office faster. Also, I like Walt’s thought that in an ideal world, Mubarak could act as a caretaker allowing time for a fair election. It is a nice thought; however, this is not an ideal world and Mubarak has lost all credibility. Why would anyone trust him not to somehow have an influence in the election if he still had a position in the government? I know I wouldn’t trust him.

Consider, it's Mubarak's Army and the people have not been hostile to it. He has craftily played both arms of his forces against the populace, good cop - bad cop. He'll still be calling the shots in the fall.