A Short-Lived Arab Spring?

Posted By Stephen M. Walt Tuesday, March 15, 2011 - 8:23 PM Share

When the revolt in Tunisia occurred back in January, I wrote:

Although most Arab governments are authoritarian, they are also all independent and depend on a slightly different mix of political institutions and measures to keep the rulers in power. The fact that Ben Ali ultimately mismanaged a challenge and was driven from power does not mean that other Arab leaders won't be able to deflect, deter, or suppress challenges to their rule."

and

Tunisia is an obvious warning sign to other Arab dictatorships, and they are bound to be especially vigilant in the months ahead, lest some sort of similar revolutionary wave begin to emerge."

While conceding that a revolutionary cascade was possible and that pressure for greater openness might succeed in the long term, I concluded that a rapid transformation was unlikely.

As I've noted previously, I underestimated the degree to which events in Tunisia would inspire like-minded movements in other countries, and it's clear that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak didn't respond as swiftly or effectively as I expected. But Arab governments are under no illusions now, and we seem to be witnessing precisely the sort of counterrevolutionary responses that often serve to contain a revolutionary outbreak.

In Libya, the Qaddafi regime has responded in brutal but increasingly effective fashion and now seems likely to retain power in at least part of the country for some time to come. With few genuine foreign friends, a big pile of cash, and no place to run or hide, Qaddafi and his family had little choice but to fight it out and hope for the best, even if their brutal suppression of the rebel forces lands them back on the list of international pariahs.

For its part, the Saudi government has sought to pre-empt significant protests by doling out $37 billion worth of new social benefits, while making it clear that protests will be dealt with harshly. In neighboring Bahrain, the Khalifa dynasty has responded to rising protests from its Shiite majority population with heightened repression. It has also invited the Saudis -- which share the Khalifa regime's fear of Iranian influence -- to send several thousand troops there to back up the government.

So if you believed that the events in Tunisia and Egypt -- which were both relatively bloodless and remarkably swift -- were likely to be duplicated elsewhere, you were wrong. The revolutionary impulse has been remarkably contagious, but revolutionary outcomes much less so, at least thus far. Nor do we yet know how far-reaching the reforms in Tunisia and Egypt will ultimately be (though I remain cautiously optimistic).

All that said, I still find it hard to believe that these events do not herald more far-reaching political change throughout much of the Arab world. Even if some governments are able to keep the lid on for now, the social, political, and economic conditions that have given rise to these upheavals won't vanish anytime soon. Whether they consent to real reform or not, ruling elites are likely to be more mindful of popular opinion going forward, for fear of facing new protests in the future or driving frustrated reformers in more radical and dangerous directions.

If this view is correct, then the days when the United States could base key elements of its Middle East grand strategy on alliances with a set of Arab regimes whose policies tended to ignore popular sentiment -- including widespread popular anger at the U.S. role in the region -- are coming to an end. A new grand strategy is going to be needed -- and soon.

EXPLORE:AREA STUDIES, ARAB WORLD, MIDDLE EAST, DEMOCRACY, DIPLOMACY, EGYPT, HUMAN RIGHTS, JORDAN, LIBYA, SAUDI ARABIA, SCENES FROM THE REVOLUTION, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY

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BKAPLOVITZ

1:59 AM ET

March 16, 2011

TNR: Obama’s Scandalous Approach to the Middle East (Peretz)

From The New Republic Online
March 15, 2011

Tel Aviv Journal: Obama’s Scandalous Approach to the Middle East

By Martin Peretz

. . . "What is curious about Obama’s infatuation with Arab societies (and with non-Arab Muslim societies, too) is that he knows just about nothing about them. And I don’t just mean their histories or theology. What’s clear is that the president grasps pretty close to zero about the actualities of these states, their economic and social realities, the stratifications by tribe and sex, the race between literacy and population growth, the synchrony of tradition with bureaucracy, the stultification of education, the militarization of these polities, their abhorrence of liberal ideas. And the fact is that Obama is neither fast-spirited nor supple. He certainly was blindsided by the turbulence and torment that has wracked the region over more than two months now. Why could he not see the new amidst the crumbling old? And why was he also not liberated a bit from the old order to which he had mysteriously attached himself?" . . .

"But the American refusal to recognize the provisional government in Benghazi is the true betrayal of the Arab revolution, of an Arab people and of Arab hope. For were the president to announce that the United States sees the revolutionaries and rebels as the legitimate representatives of their long betrayed people, some $30 billion in assets in our country would be theirs. Perhaps more. This added to the other enormous holdings of the Libyan people in French, Italian, and British banks could make that people free."

Martin Peretz is the editor-in-chief emeritus of The New Republic.

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/85234/peretz-israel-palestinian-obama

JOHNBOY4546

4:07 AM ET

March 16, 2011

Not meaning to be rude......

..... but I fail to see the point of lifting your skull and pouring the "editor-in chief emeritus" into your brain so he can do your thinking for you.

After all, why should we bother listening to the chattering monkey when we can just go to The New Republic and hear the same nonsense being uttered by the organ-grinder himself?

JOHNBOY4546

4:07 AM ET

March 16, 2011

Not meaning to be rude......

..... but I fail to see the point of lifting your skull and pouring the "editor-in chief emeritus" into your brain so he can do your thinking for you.

After all, why should we bother listening to the chattering monkey when we can just go to The New Republic and hear the same nonsense being uttered by the organ-grinder himself?

CARTILAGE

1:59 PM ET

March 16, 2011

you mean this Marty Peretz?

That said, so eloquently:

"But, frankly, Muslim life is cheap, most notably to Muslims. And among those Muslims led by the Imam Rauf there is hardly one who has raised a fuss about the routine and random bloodshed that defines their brotherhood. So, yes, I wonder whether I need honor these people and pretend that they are worthy of the privileges of the First Amendment which I have in my gut the sense that they will abuse."

And we should give a rat's ass what this clown thinks because?

GRANT

6:07 AM ET

March 16, 2011

The point to look for is

The point to look for is probably when oil money starts to dwindle. I'm not going to do something so foolish as to predict the date (or even decade) this will happen in but it should be evident that it will happen. At the very least it means job security for anyone who can speak Arabic.

SCOTTINDALLAS

1:00 PM ET

March 16, 2011

who can speak Arabic...

And hates Arabs. The money that's run out is the West's. I was hoping Walt might point out that NATO has collapsed, and that the reactionary forces are Arab funded. Why Grant worry about others when we are already broke and stuck with our broken policies.

GRANT

3:16 AM ET

March 17, 2011

NATO is still alive, albeit

NATO is still alive, albeit weakened and the recession is actually starting to end (though events in Japan might slow that). We should think more of when the welfare states in the Middle East that keep the public from getting angry start to collapse as oil runs out. That will be a rather violent time.
Also, not as many people hate Arabs or Muslims as the world seems to believe. At my college I found far more people curious about Muslims than there were who were angry at Muslims.