Rearranging the deck chairs

Posted By Stephen M. Walt Wednesday, April 27, 2011 - 11:28 AM Share

No doubt foreign policy wonks will be all a-twitter for a day or so, chewing over the news that President Obama is going to move CIA head Leon Panetta over to DoD to replace outgoing Secretary Robert Gates, and then replace Panetta with Afghan commander General David Petraeus. This is the sort of event that Washington-watchers tend to see as Very Significant, but I'm sticking with my original view: this sort of reshuffle doesn't matter very much.

Why? Because there's no reason to suppose that Panetta or Petraeus will be bringing either new ideas, new political clout, or substantially different managerial expertise to their jobs.  The only way to get a dramatic change in U.S. national security policy would be if either man were going to recommend fundamentally different policies, or if either man was going to be substantially more effective at implementing policies that were already in place. But there's no reason to assume that either of these conditions will hold.

Mind you, I'm not knocking Panetta or Petraeus. The former is a consummate Washington insider, and presumably will be reasonably effective at maneuvering in the Beltway jungle. So was outgoing SecDef Gates, however, so Panetta's move into the Pentagon doesn't really change anything. Moreover, is there any evidence that he has new, original, or creative ideas about either defense management or national strategy? If so, I haven't seen them. As for Petraeus, he's been an energetic defender of the basic thrust of U.S. military policy for more than a decade, including our emphasis on fighting costly wars in the periphery. More importantly, for all the talk of winning hearts and minds through a more sophisticated counterinsurgency strategy, he's also been a big fan of using CIA drones to fight the AfPak war. So there's no reason to expect a significant shift in how the CIA operates.

In short, there's less here than meets the eye, but that won't stop Washingtonians (and bloggers like me) from talking about it.

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EXPLORE:INTELLIGENCE, MILITARY, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY
 

MERODRIGUEZ

3:58 PM ET

April 27, 2011

Question of Omission

Why didn't you discuss Gates' absence? Does that fall under the same category as Panetta and Petraeus' shifting chairs?

 

ZATHRAS

9:10 PM ET

April 27, 2011

I was wondering which FP

I was wondering which FP blogger would be the first to haul out the "rearranging deck chairs" cliche'. Stephen Walt wins.

Actually, reshuffles like this can matter a great deal, because things can always get worse. Sec. Gates was on his way out, Panetta or no Panetta, but Gates was a very consequential SecDef who had set many things in motion without being able to finish them. Panetta, though he may not be in the job more than a couple of years himself for reasons of age, brings considerable ability and experience to the task of continuing Gates' work.

I'm less certain about Petraeus, simply because he'd be a very high profile guy in what should be a low profile job. I respect his ability and industry, which have helped him achieve success in military commands. They didn't bring him success in the assignment he had, post-101st and pre-surge, to train Iraqi armed forces, a task outside of his experience.

Ryan Crocker is a very good diplomat. This won't bring us success in Afghanistan, but a so-so diplomat would compound our difficulties there.

 

CAMIO

4:04 AM ET

April 28, 2011

If I remember correctly, Dr.

If I remember correctly, Dr. walt mentioned he served on Gen. Petraeus's dissertation advisory committee in Princeton. That probably explains why he was the first FP blogger responding to the reshuffle. lol.

 

DOUG12

9:51 PM ET

April 27, 2011

Rearranging the deck chairs

It's business as usual in Washington. No one has something to say about the appointees that might make their confirmations problematic. It's interesting that the director of CIA is moved to Defense and a military commander is moved from the battlefield to the CIA. One might have thought that the Director of the CIA might remain at his job and a Four Star General become Secretary of Defense. Oh well.

 

FIFTH HORSEMAN

12:10 AM ET

April 28, 2011

Saving Viet Nam?

As one who regularly vacations in Viet Nam I'm always amused when I read comments in the Western press about how Vietnam might have been "saved" if only if . . . .

Take a vacation trip to modern day Viet Nam yourself -- currently Anthony Bourdain's favorite country according to him -- look around and ask yourself if Viet Nam wasn't indeed "saved" the moment the United States decided to withdraw its military forces and let Viet Nam somehow manage to fend for itself for the first time in centuries.

 

CAMIO

3:05 AM ET

April 28, 2011

A comment from China

Panetta is in his 70s and I am wondering how long he can stay healthy under the huge pressure as the Pentagon chief. Obama may have to name another secretary of defense in his second term.
I havent finished reading the biography of David Petraeus by Bradley Gericke which covers Petraeus' main military experience except for Afganistan. I respect him as a very capable general with prominent leadership, commanding skills, and most importantly capability to develop sophisticated strategies which I deem as gain from his academic experience. I was expecting him to replace Adm. Mullen to be the top military advisor to the President and secretary of defense, although such position would waste his talent as a commanding officer. However the post of chairman of joint chiefs would serve as his last staff assignment before any "commanding" post in a civilian department. Well, this was just my plan for him and his boss is Obama. Petraeus heading for CIA almost makes marine Gen. Cartwright the next chairman of joint chiefs.

 

CAMIO

3:12 AM ET

April 28, 2011

Plus, if I was Panetta I

Plus, if I was Panetta I would not even accept the offer. Nothing can be more important than health. Teaching and writing are fun too, for such an experienced politician.

 

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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