Friday, April 29, 2011 - 6:18 PM

A realistic foreign policy seeks to deal with the world as it is, shorn of political illusions. Realists emphasize that even close allies often have conflicting interests, that cooperation between states is difficult to achieve or sustain, and that the conduct of nations is frequently shaped by some combination of fear, greed and stupidity.
Above all, realists warn against basing policy on wishful thinking: on the assumption that all will go as we want it to. Yet the pages of history are littered with episodes where leaders made decision on the basis of false hopes, idealistic delusions, or blind faith. And I regret to say that there's no shortage of this sort of wishful thinking today. As evidence, I offer here my "Top Ten Examples of Wishful Thinking in Contemporary U.S. Foreign Policy."
No. 1: China Won't Act Like a Great Power
Although most foreign policy gurus recognize that China's rising power will have profound effects on world politics, some still assume that a more powerful China will somehow act differently than other great powers have in the past. In particular, they maintain that China will cheerfully accept the institutional arrangements that were "made-in-America" after World War II. They also believe that Beijing will be content to let the United States maintain its current security posture in East Asia, and will not seek to undermine it over time. Maybe so, that's not how great powers have acted in the past, and it's certainly not how the United States behaved in its own rise to world power (remember the Monroe Doctrine?). This illusion is gradually being dispelled, I think, but one hears its echoes every time some official says that the United States "welcomes" China's rise.
Read the full article, "Wishful Thinking," here.
Also, I hope readers will send in their suggestions for other examples of "wishful thinking." Perhaps I'll devote a future post to the other side of the equation -- "worst-casing" -- which can be just as serious an error as excessive optimism.
BAY ISMOYO/Getty Images
EXPLORE:BUSH'S LEGACY, DIPLOMACY, DISASTERS, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY
I think that you glossed over one bit of wishful thinking that forms a cornerstone of American foreign policy, particularly under Bush: because we think we have noble intentions, everyone will regard us as noble. It also assumes that people will forget our track record, even relatively recent suspicious activity like the continued existence of Guantanamo or the bombing of Libya, or the sometimes vitriolic comments from our leaders in domestic debates.
One of its corollaries is that people, particularly leaders in other countries, will be sympathetic with our needs and our point of view. Likewise, it causes the belief that the United States can still be seen as a neutral or unbiased party in international dealings. If ever there was an attitude that reflected American wishful thinking, the fact that it still views itself as the undimmed shining light on the hill is it. America is a great country, but its leaders like to act like it has no flaws, which is a mistake.
it would be too much for government foreign policy types to actually take your points here seriously, much less Obama himself...
let me repost what I said in the other half:
To go back to one of Walt's posts, let us reconsider the assassination issue. Today Nato succeeded in killing four of Ghadaffi's grandchildren in what appears to be a failed effort to kill Ghadaffi. The earlier discussion was somewhat abstract. Perhaps we should continue this discussion in light of this new information. Some questions worth pondering. How does this act advance American interests in the ME? Will wiping out Ghadaffi's extended family undermine the support he has with his people? Will this act motivate the rebels to attack the central government with even more fervor? Or could Ghadaffi come out of this with even more popular support as one who resists Western imperialism?
Just a few questions. But if anyone can see something positive coming out of this for American interests, I would like to hear what they are
Some real eye openers of 'wishful thinking'
Some real eye openers of ‘wishful thinking’:
1. China became U. S. friend once Nixon-Kissinger embraced it to counter Soviet Union in 1972. China's rise to challenge U. S. is a fitting monument to that Nixon-Kissinger folly.
2. Only A. Q. Khan was ‘solely’ responsible for Pakistani State’s nuclear proliferation when Pakistan's nuclear program has been under strict Pakistani Army control all the time.
3. Pakistan is a U. S. ally in American fight against Taliban/Al Qaeda when Pakistani Army/ISI have been sheltering and supporting Al Qaeda and Taliban since 2001. Pakistan's democratic government of its own 'free will', chose to facilitate relocation of Osama bin Laden from Sudan to Afghanistan via Karachi in 1996.
4. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons can fall in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists when ‘Pakistani Army/ISI are SPONSORING Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda, Mullah Omar’s QST, Haqqani’s HQN and Hafiz Saeed’s LeT and will NOT abandon them for any amount of US money’ as previous US ambassador Anne Patterson wrote in a diplomatic cable in 2009. Ambassador Patterson had NO reason to mislead her own State Department and U. S. government.
We can't afford to feed and fight the world with borrowed money.
Every cause has an effect. Every action a reaction.
By intervening in the Israel-Muslim conflict, we created the conditions that started the American war with Muslim terrorists. Intervening in other countries always leads to war and enemies. Terrorism is the strategy of the powerless when they fight the powerful. The next step in this permanent war is that terrorists will detonate dirty nuclear bombs on the NATO countries and America. We have to stop the steps that are leading us to this end.
The terrorists have more time and supporters than we have money. To survive we have to stop all interventions in the world. Defend our borders and attack only targeted actual terrorists. This total divorce from the world's problems will eventually cause the terrorists to focus on their own power struggles because they will see that America is out of the area and that it's in their best interest to end terrorism against America to keep us out. This is the only way to end this permanent war before we enter the terminal stage of our economic and social cancer.
The $1.65 Trillion dollars out of a budget of $3.7 Trillion, that the Federal government has to beg and borrow this year and every year, should not be spent on war contractor profits and foreign affairs. Confront reality; The USA is the largest debtor in world history. The annual trade deficit (losses) is over $700 billion. Industry is only 9% of the economy. According to the official government statistics, 36% of males 16 to 64 years old are permanently out of the labor force and don't count. The Federal, State and local governments must reduce their size by 37% to fit actual taxes.
There are not enough taxpayers to support this huge government of over 20 million people and an equal number of people that are employed by dependent government contractors. Taxes are too high already. Most taxpayers are struggling with increasing local property tax increases and the rising cost of living.
We need to re-industrialize to become financially and politically independent from the global corporations and special interests. America has to nation build to restore its prosperity. 47% of American households are too poor to be legally obligated to pay income taxes. American owned companies cannot compete with imported global corporate products made with cheap labor. We cannot survive competing with Chinese that earn $200 a month.
Focus on our own problems, end globalization, mass immigration and re-industrialize with free enterprise competitive American owned companies before we become another failed state. Stop voting for the two political parties that ruined America. Choose independent politicians and change them when they sell out to the special interest groups. Constitutional government must represent national interests that include corporations, the rich, the middle class and the poor.
Roman Gil
http://roman-gil1.blogspot.com
Hats off to the army of USA.. They finally find Laden. car loans
The "Osama Is Dead Story" Must Be Investigated
The “Osama Bin Laden Is Dead Story” Has Many Questions That Need To Be Investigated.
May 4, 2011
Osama Bin Laden was a terrorist and deserved the death penalty. This is why the media must investigate this story instead of merely parroting the information that was provided by the government.
Based on my experience as a decorated US Army combat veteran, this story has credibility problems. I tried to post these questions in the comments section of several mass media publications and they did not get posted. A free press is essential in a free society because it has a duty to investigate what the government is doing and it must educate citizens. A free media must publish all responsible questions from the public and be open to debate. Thomas Jefferson said that given the choice between government and a printing press, he would take the printing press.
1. Why they did not show Osama’s body publicly? In 1967, Che Guevara the Communist guerrilla was captured alive wounded in Bolivia, interrogated, killed and his body was displayed to the world media. A responsible government would display Osama’s body to the media and to a panel of international physicians to prove without a doubt the death of the most wanted terrorist in the world. The government version that Osama’s head was too damaged to show the public is not credible. Morticians can prepare a body for public display. Media and international physicians would be welcome to take DNA samples from the body as total proof of Osama’s demise.
2. Osama was unarmed when they shot him? Osama was a terrorist veteran of the Afghan Soviet war that was waged in the 1980s between Islamist guerrillas and the Soviet Union. Anybody with his background would have alarmed, mined and booby trapped his house. Weapons would be in his possession at all times and in every room of the house, including hand grenades. He had plenty of time to install command detonated mines everywhere outside and inside the compound. I have problems believing that the most wanted terrorist in the world was killed while unarmed. When I was in a war zone, my weapon was with me at all times and I slept with it and lots of ammo and hand grenades, could Osama be so foolish that he did not have weapons in his room?
3. There were no American casualties? This is simply not credible because attacking a compound that is occupied by dangerous men that had plenty of time to prepare for defense, makes it certain that the attackers must sustain casualties. Osama’s terrorist group specializes in suicide bombers of both sexes. They could not spare even one of them to protect their leader?
4. Why did we spend $1.5 Trillion dollars occupying and "nation building" Iraq and Afghanistan instead of targeting Osama's less than 1,000 terrorists?. We could have got Osama 10 years ago at a reasonable cost. When American troops landed in Afghanistan after the 9/11 terrorist attack, the Afghan Northern Alliance had already overthrown the Taliban government that harbored Osama. It was not necessary to occupy the country. A war using Special Forces would have been sufficient
5. Why are we still involved in the Israeli-Muslim conflict? This is the cause of the war on terror. We inherited Israel’s enemies and they struck us on 9/11. The effects of our involvement will continue until we divorce from the Muslim world and focus on killing the actual terrorists until they are finished. Our absence from the Muslim world will make Muslims eventually stop provoking us with terrorism because they will want to keep us out. It is common sense that it would be in the Muslim interest to stop terrorism against America to keep America from coming back to their lands. With America out of the Israeli-Muslim conflict, the Muslims will be free to focus on their affairs and their problem with Israel. Israel has nuclear weapons and a strong military that assures it that it can survive any war without America. The only beneficiaries of the present war on terror are the war contractors and the special interest groups.
Some possible explanations for this unusual story;
a) The government killed Osama Bin Laden but it believes that it is not necessary to provide conclusive proof of their actions because they are universally loved and trusted. This means that they are incompetent because they did not prove their story.
b) Osama Bin Laden was hooked on opium and developed a false sense of security. His followers shared this drug problem and failed to fortify and provide guards for the Osama compound.
c) The masses are so stupid that they will accept without question anything that the government and media tells them, so why bother with proof?
d) Osama Bin Laden died years ago, and now it is a convenient time to bring him back to distract the masses and continue the hugely profitable war on terror and gain mass support for a government that cannot exist without debt and financial dependency on special interest groups.
e) This story is a case that simply shows the irresponsibility and incompetence of the American government.
The $6 Trillion spent on the war on terror (direct and indirect costs)continues to pile additional debt and there is no end in sight. The money that was wasted on fighting this war with a wrong strategy could have been wisely invested by loaning it to private enterprise companies that would be protected from cheap imports. A new industrial policy like South Korea’s would reconstruct and protect a new American industrial base that would replace the industry and technology that global corporations exported to China and other Third World countries under the globalization false ideology that has ruined America and Europe and created millions of permanently unemployed people. America would be able to replace imports with nationally produced products and services. The trade losses would end and careers in science, engineering, chemistry and skilled jobs would be abundant in an industrial economy.
With a new industrial base, America would be independent of imports and global debt financing. Presently, the Federal government needs to annually beg and borrow $1.65 Trillion a year from international capital and US investors because the industrial base of the American economy is only 9%.
There are not enough corporate or individual taxpayers to support the huge Federal, State and local governments, plus their armies of government contractors. In any case, the American governments must reduce their size and expenses by 40% to balance their budgets and avoid digging America deeper into debt and dependency on the kindness of creditors.
The present economic and political dependency of the American economy on debt, special interest groups and imports makes a continuation of the present globalist war on terror fatal for America. It’s a choice of nation building America before it becomes a terminal case of financial and social cancer, or continue to dig the debt and dependency grave deeper until we end like other failed world powers, including the British Empire, the French Empire and Soviet Union.
Roman Gil
http://roman-gil1.blogspot.com
www.facebook.com/roman.gil1
http://twitter.com/RomanGil1
We Cannot Afford This Unlimited Government And Foreign Affairs
We Can’t Afford This Unlimited Government and Its Interventionist Foreign Policy
By intervening in the Israel-Muslim conflict, we created the conditions that started the American war with Muslim terrorists. Intervening in other countries always leads to war and enemies. Terrorism is the strategy of the powerless when they fight the powerful. The phase in this permanent war is that terrorists will detonate dirty or conventional nuclear bombs on the NATO countries and America. We have to stop the steps that are leading us to this end.
The terrorists have more time and supporters than we have money. To survive we have to stop all interventions in the world. Defend our borders and attack only targeted actual terrorists. A total divorce from foreign affairs and the world's problems will eventually cause the Muslims and other foreigners to focus on their own affairs and their problems with their enemies because they will see that America is out of their areas and that it's in their best interest to end terrorism against America to keep us out. This is the only way to end this permanent war before we enter the terminal stage of our economic and social cancer.
The Federal, State and local governments must reduce their size by 40% to fit actual taxes. There are not enough taxpayers to support this huge 3 level government of over 20 million people and an equal number of people that are employed by dependent government contractors. Taxes are too high already. Most taxpayers are struggling with increasing local property tax increases and the rising cost of living. In Rockland county, NY a wealthy suburb, 20% of the population depend on Medicaid a Federal and State welfare health insurance program that local New York counties must now pay a large share of using property taxes. Most the Medicaid recipients are illegal alien mothers and their American born “anchor babies”. The Federal government’s refusal to enforce immigration laws is causing the downfall of many American States and communities because of the tax burden of supporting millions of new aliens each year.
The United States is overpopulated and cannot afford to add millions of legal and illegal immigrants every year. 47% of American households are too poor to be legally obligated to pay income taxes. There are not enough corporations to support this size government and in any case their share of Federal income taxes is only 7% after all their tax breaks. Many including General Electric, pay no income taxes at all, and even take corporate government welfare subsidies.
Many of the CIA, military and government officials have quit and joined contractors that pay them more. These costly contractor employees are now back in their former government jobs at the taxpayer expense. The dependence of the military and CIA on contractors are a major drain of taxpayer money and a threat to our freedom. These people are mercenaries that depend on war to make profits and to live. They are not patriots serving their country; they are serving their greed for taxpayer money. 57% of Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan are contractors. On May 15, 2011 there are 50,000 troops and 63,000 contractors in Iraq.
The “war on terror” has been contracted out and turned into a permanent business. Contractors are now making more profit than during World War 2 and other wars. Now they are not merely suppliers, they perform many military jobs that traditionally are performed by military personnel. This is a huge waste of taxpayer money and dangerous for national security because the contractors will never fight like soldiers when wars heat up. They can simply quit. The U.S. military relies on contractors to the point that they depend on them for vital military supplies including fuel, within war zones in Afghanistan. The contractors charge the U.S. military $457 a gallon for delivered fuels and pay the Taliban and other enemy forces $1,500 per truck as security protection payments. This is a disgrace and a fraud on taxpayers.
The war contractors are a powerful special interest group. An economist recently estimated that the true cost of the “war on terror” is $5 trillion. This is such an important business that the contractors will never willingly give it up. It is unlikely that they will willingly quit and return to low paid jobs like most of the American taxpayers that they prey on. The war contractors are the greatest national threat to America and we must terminate this business before we end up a failed state like the Soviet Union.
Instead of cutting the size of the government, there are plans to expropriate pension plan contributions that people were forced to pay. The cuts and elimination of Medicare and Social Security is a theft of the contributions that were forced on wage earners. The majority of Americans will be in deep poverty without these programs that were designed to serve the contributors. Instead this money will go to the bloated government and its dependent contractors.
By continuing to appoint men of the failed globalization ideology to positions of power, we are voting for our hangman at the gallows. We have to restore George Washington's constitutional republic that was designed to represent national interests, not just special interests.
This fiscal year the Federal government must beg and borrow $1.65 Trillion dollars out of a budget of $3.7 Trillion. This debt money should not be spent on war contractor profits and foreign affairs. Confront reality; The USA is the largest debtor in world history. The annual trade deficit (losses) is over $700 billion. Industry is only 9% of the economy. According to the official government statistics, 36% of males 16 to 64 years old are permanently out of the labor force and don't count.
There is no global market for American products. The total value of American exports is only $1.5 trillion a year and most of these are not manufactured products. The national current account balance (profit-loss) is more than a negative $700 billion. Globalization is draining the wealth out of America and the European “free trade” countries that practice this false globalist ideology.
We need to re-industrialize to become financially and politically independent from the global corporations and special interests. America has to nation build to restore its prosperity. 47% of American households are too poor to be legally obligated to pay income taxes. American owned companies cannot compete with imported global corporate products made with cheap labor. We cannot survive competing with Chinese that earn $200 a month.
Focus on our own problems, end globalization, mass immigration and re-industrialize with free enterprise competitive American owned companies before we become another failed state. Stop voting for the two political parties that ruined America. Choose independent politicians and change them when they sell out to the special interest groups. Constitutional government must represent national interests that include corporations, the rich, the middle class and the poor.
Roman Gil
http://roman-gil1.blogspot.com
Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.
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