Thursday, May 26, 2011 - 1:51 PM

I've never been a huge fan of Robert Gates, even though friends whose judgment I trust hold him in high regard. But as his tenure as Secretary of Defense comes to a close, I'm prepared to concede that he exceeded my initial expectations. He had the advantage of succeeding Donald Rumsfeld -- whose combination of arrogance and incompetence could make anyone look good by comparison -- but Gates has also shown remarkable balance, common-sense and imagination in dealing with one of the world's more challenging managerial jobs. Of course, Gates is often regarded as something of a realist, so I suppose I shouldn't be surprised.
In any case, today I commend to you Gates' final policy speech, which he delivered at the American Enterprise Institute a couple of days ago. It's not the equivalent of Eisenhower's famous farewell address on the "military-industrial complex," but it is a sober and realistic assessment of some of the things that the Department of Defense needs to do.
Most importantly, it acknowledges that cold hard fact that DoD will have to do it with less money, and that this is ok. Money quote:
But as I am fond of saying, we live in the real world. Absent a catastrophic international conflict or a new existential threat, we are not likely to return to Cold War levels of defense expenditures, at least as a share of national wealth, anytime soon. Nor do I believe we need to."
Translation: sorry, folks: but you can't fight a couple of costly wars, experience a major global financial meltdown, and spend nearly a decade cutting taxes, and still expect to have lots of money to throw at national security. And it would be foolish to do so even if we did, because we live in an era where we face no existential great power threats. Instead, our main priority needs to be getting our economic house in order and preparing for longer-term challenges down the road, while maintaining the essential elements of our current global security role.
One of the classic tradeoffs in national security is between measures that increase short-term readiness and those that enhance long-term strength. We could be a lot stronger in the short-term if we ramped up defense spending -- even if there wasn't an obvious need -- but if we neglected our fiscal health, education, national infrastructure, etc., then we would end up a lot weaker down the road. Which is why I think we should be focusing a lot more attention on long-term capacity building than fighting costly wars in places that don't matter very much (like Afghanistan).
Furthermore, although Gates elides this issue in his speech, the various pressures that are going to constrain national security spending in the years ahead are also going to put some limits on our global ambitions. The United States will remain a very powerful and very influential international actor; indeed, it will probably be the single most powerful and influential player on the globe for many years to come. But it won't be quite as dominant as it was in the immediate aftermath of World War II, or as it appeared to be at the end of the Cold War. Instead of trying to dictate events in virtually every corner of the world, future US leaders are going to have to pick-and-choose a bit more, and rely more on regional allies who will have their own interests and preferences and may be unwilling to follow Washington's guidance from time to time. That's not necessarily a bad world to be living in, but it will require considerable adjustment in how we do business. And after sixty-plus years of global primacy, getting used to that fact is likely to take awhile.
Gates was an improvement on Rumsfeld, but not by much. Gates was still committed to war vs. Islam as far as I could see and never entertained the idea of getting out of Afghanistan. Did he even get us out of Iraq? [As far as I know an indeterminate number of troops are still there.] The US needs to downsize its military establishment far more than Gates did or his probable successor will ever do. It needs to give up the idea of a world empire of military bases virtually everywhere and particularly get out of China's face as well as Russia's. We have no business meddling in the border areas of Russia nor to have our aircraft carriers roaming the ocean off China. The US needs to shrink, drastically, its footprint around the world and withdraw to sensible lines of defense: the mid Pacific to protect Hawaii and the mid-Atlantic to protect the Azores. Then it would again be a Defense Department, not the Imperial War Department that it has, in effect, become.
Our recent occupation of Iraq continues - roughly 45,000 troops still there, although they cannot act unless the Iraqi government requests it; approximately 130,000 troops in Afghanistan to chase less than 2,000 al Qaeda fighters (most of the Taliban are Afghan 'nationals' who pose no threat whatsoever to the USA), and we are fighting undercover wars against various terrorist groups in Yemen and Pakistan. On top of that, we are recently involved in the Libyan Civil War - and we and our allies have not been successful in removing Col. Qaddafi after two months. It's time to stop intervening in everyone else's business, trim the growing menace of the military-corporate state within our borders, and learn to accept the limitations of our own power (and pocketbook).
We still support a network of bases from Europe to Korea and places in between, many years after the Iron Curtain came down; South Korea can certainly defend itself if it needs to. And yet, we cannot defend our southern border against an invasion of illegals from South and Central America and against the importation of drugs and the criminal elements that come with it.
Mind-boggling!
Thanks for clarifying the Iraq situation for me. I suppose the warmongers think keeping troops there might be useful if we decide (or Israel decides for us) to attack Iran. What other purpose do they serve?
Excellent comment. We truly have moved away from being a Department of Defense to a Department of War. Of course, fighting enemies proactively can be considered defense, especially when there is a clear case for intervention, but we may just be creating our own problems by meddling in foreign regions.
In the previous post 40 or so of the 119 posts were made by one hasbara troll who used extensive cut and paste comments from various hasbara sites (without attribution). Most of this material was totally distracting from Walt's original post. Also this troll uses a handle highly emotive of US patriotic feelings though the sentiments are not American but but purely Israeli.
It is very difficult to engage in any kind of discussion because of this distraction. Perhaps that is the goal of the troll. If so, it is successful. Is it possible to police this site, perhaps limit the number of comments from one poster or to just ban the obvious troll?
The warmongers are worried that China might not be a pushover in the war they think, I presume, probable:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/may/25/inside-the-ring-377211977/
Or (typical fall back position) China might send weapons to Iran when we go to war there.
If the US doesn't rule the world, disaster is nigh.
America's Fatal Love Affair With Israel
America’s Fatal Love Affair With Israel Gained Us a Permanent War.
If we had followed George Washington’s advice in his “Farewell Address”, we would not have become involved in the “War on Terror”. I loaded his complete address in my blog and highlighted the parts that are of special interest to Americans that believe in the American limited constitutional republic type of government.
By intervening in the Israel-Muslim conflict, we created the conditions that started the American war with Muslim terrorists. Intervening in other countries always leads to war and enemies. Terrorism is the strategy of the powerless when they fight the powerful. The next step in this permanent war is that terrorists will detonate dirty or conventional nuclear bombs on the NATO countries and America. We have to stop the steps that are leading us to this end and change the strategy to win and end the war before it escalates.
Why are we providing Israel annually with $3.5 billion American taxpayer debt dollars? They are rich and can afford to defend themselves. Israel has nuclear weapons and a strong military; they don’t need our money or participation in this Israeli-Muslim conflict that has been going on even before the founding of Israel in 1948. Why are we paying Egypt annually over $1.5 billion in foreign aid? The American taxpayer is paying foreign aid to many nations, but Communist China has no foreign aid. China buys oil fields, mines and finances the government debts of the American and now European governments. China is obtaining real power and influence by following the policy that George Washington explained in his “Farewell Address” advice to the American people.
The global interventionist policy gained us Israel’s enemies. The terrorist attack on 9/11 is a result of intervening in a conflict that concerns Israelis and Muslims. Osama Bin Laden’s strategy was to draw America into conflict in the Muslim world to bankrupt us like what happened to the former interventionist, expansionist Soviet Union. The Afghanistan war and the many Soviet global interventions bankrupted the Soviet Union and caused its ignoble collapse in 1991. We have been playing Osama’s game since 9/11 and we are losing our wealth and power.
We get most of our oil from Canada and other suppliers that are not in the Middle East. The Communist Chinese announced last year that they now have a controlling interest in Iraqi oil and proudly announced the receipt of the first oil shipments. It is clear that they have a strategy of gaining real power at the expense of the follies of other powers. We are fighting a war against maybe 2,000 Al Qaeda terrorists without a military strategy to win the war. Instead, the military talks about the nonsense of “nation building” and “democracy building” in Iraq and Afghanistan. We just added thousands of new enemies by intervening in Libya. The Libyans that Obama killed have families. Every bomb that falls in the American Muslim war is financed by debt and represents a nail in our coffin. We really know how to win friends and influence people.
An economist estimated that the total cost of the war on terror is $5 trillion. 57% of Americans that are fighting this war are contractors, not military personnel. The war contractors are now a powerful special interest group. They are not likely to voluntarily abandon this lucrative business and join the underpaid and overtaxed American civilian population.
The terrorists have more time and supporters than we have money. To survive we have to stop all interventions and occupations in the world. We must defend our borders and attack only targeted actual terrorists. This total divorce from the world's problems will eventually cause the terrorists to focus on their own internal affairs because they will see that America is out of their area and that it's in their best interest to end terrorism against America to keep us out. This is the only way to end this permanent war before we enter the terminal stage of our economic and social cancer.
The $1.65 Trillion dollars out of a budget of $3.7 Trillion, that the Federal government has to beg and borrow this year and every year, should not be spent on war contractor profits and foreign affairs. Confront reality; The USA is the largest debtor in world history. The annual national current account balance losses are over $700 billion (this is wealth that is lost according to the formula national assets-liabilities). Industry is only 9% of the economy.
According to the official government statistics, 36% of males 16 to 64 years old are permanently out of the labor force and don't count. The Federal, State and local governments must reduce their size by 37% to fit actual taxes. There are not enough taxpayers to support this huge government of over 20 million people and an equal number of people that are employed by dependent government contractors. Taxes are too high already. Most taxpayers are struggling with increasing local property tax increases and the rising cost of living.
We need to re-industrialize to become financially and politically independent from the global corporations and special interests. America has to nation build to restore its prosperity. 47% of American households are too poor to be legally obligated to pay income taxes. American owned companies cannot compete with imported global corporate products made with cheap labor. We cannot survive competing with Chinese that earn $200 a month.
Focus on our own problems, end globalization, mass immigration and re-industrialize with free enterprise competitive American owned companies before we become another failed state. Stop voting for the two political parties that ruined America. Choose independent politicians and change them when they sell out to the special interest groups. Constitutional government must represent national interests that include corporations, the rich, the middle class and the poor.
Roman Gil
http://roman-gil1.blogspot.com
This has nothing to do with the article about military budgets
America's love of Israel has caused the US to spend billions of dollars on useless fighter jets to fight long gone cold-war enemies? I don't think so......
Yes and even with the fighters we have, they don't have the range Israel needs to take out Natanz. Israel is crown piece of doo doo in our global empire.
Very nice translation, clearly depicting what was being tried to say - paradoxically. Phlebotomy Training CNA Training
Steve is right that, under current U.S. economic conditions (likely to last at least another five years), the defense budget is to be squeezed -- but, surprisingly, no proposals, except Cato's, reduce it much. The trouble is that a flat budget is the hardest for the military establishment to handle. Of course, there is no future for U.S. defense until after Afghanistan, but nobody knows when that may be (some hope 2014). We are definitely out of Iraq at the end of this year, per agreement with the Iraqis, who never got to love us.
When we do get out, Steve suggests there will be some kind of struggle between short-term and long-term strength of the U.S. military. The trouble is that, for the long-term, DOD, without adult leadership, goes back to inventing enemies and fantastic scenarios, then embarking on fantastic weapons and other systems that cost too much and don't work well, thus bought in fewer numbers, so the forces shrink, and the despair in our own invented scenarios gets even deeper. See China now replacing the Soviet Union in awesome strength.
Rather, after Afghanistan, when most U.S. forces come home (with only small residuals in Europe and Northeast Asia and the Navy patrolling the Persian Gulf to protect the oil going to China and the rest of Asia), what we are left with is very strong legacy forces, better than any others in the world. It is their readiness, only incrementally and sensibly improved, that will be the strength backing what are mostly U.S. economic dealings with the world, while simply preserving the most respected U.S. institution (the military). It won't take much "building," but good management.
A last comment: for those of us who actually served in the U.S. government, we never thought of being "dominant," or pursuing "global ambitions," or "dictating events." We never used the word or thought of being some kind of "hegemon." We worked with allies to help on their defense, as opposed to their somehow "taking our burdens." Since then end of the Cold War, when the Clinton Administration discovered Somalia was not the future, U.S. leadership has been mostly in helping to set up and improve the global economic institutions -- which is our main foreign policy pursuit now. Otherwise, we react to problems that spring up, like the Arab Spring/Winter now raging.
Thanks for a reasoned comment. I do however differ with you in some respects. You or your friends may not have "thought of being dominant or pursuing global ambitions" but there were plenty who did and who became immensely influential. Neocons who wrote the 1995 New World Order document and who spearheaded the war on Iraq. As I recall one famously said "we create our own reality". Just slogging along "working with allies" can unconsciously lead to hegemonic attitudes; and in a sense empire simply crept up on the USA as a result of what it perceived as "need" for its protection around the world. Taiwan is a good example. An utter anachronism that we should have abandoned long ago and a prime reason we still fly in China's face, imperialistically. Japan too. The US should have told Taiwan to reach a settlement with Mainland China long ago and Japan told to develop its own defense. I also doubt that "protecting oil supplies" is the main reason we are in the Persian Gulf. Our defense of Israel is the real reason for that. If it were merely to protect oil supplies, why not let the Chinese do that if necessary. Do we have military bases everywhere oil comes from? No. PS Both Iraq and Afghanistan were absurdities and we are still in
Afghanistan with no certain exit.
Heard a man today say his son is shipping out to Iraq very soon for a full one year tours. Don't believe the hype
The DoD must figure out how it will reduce its budget (hundreds of billions?) while at the same time providing national security and a hard power projection of America's interests.
As Secretary Gates stated and most agree, we are not going to face an enemy of the Soviet Union's stature for quite some time (the development of one being an entirely preventable eventuality using soft power and diplomacy). The most likely situations involving American forces are going to be those of limited proportions, where our forces so clearly overwhelm our opponents that shear numbers are not necessary. Excluding the debate on whether or not we SHOULD enter these conflicts examples of this type of conflict being Lybia, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, etc.
There is a solution, Big Army and Big Navy won't like it, but the weighting the Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) as the Main Effort, is the best way. Reduce the size of our Army and focus ship building efforts around new and more capable Amphib ships. The Marines need to be prepared to support a more robust Op Tempo (once commitments in Afg are done) to support a fourth MEU on each coast. The shear impact of parking a MEU within eyeshot of a coast will diffuse many situations (Liberia 2003).
Using our current forray in Lybia as an example, albeit a messy one, we see a few points:
1)Airpower and Tomahawk missiles have not been enough to depose Ghadaffi (supposing that is our goal?).
2)Airpower and Tomahawk missles were not enough to stop the Lybian military from making considerable advancement against the rebel forces and though it is now a defacto stalemate, the military still holds the commanding tactical position should European forces become unable or unwilling to maintain the NFZ.
3)Only one organization in the world was able to position itself to place forces on the ground in a timely manner. The United States Marines were on scene even before the NFZ was ready to implemented.
A MEU, augmented by either nearby Air Force capabilities or a Carrier Strike Group, and SOF elements can handle nearly all of emerging and likely threats or "kinetic military actions". It can also be done more efficiently, deployed more rapidly, and for less money. What is the cost monitarily, CivCas, and in military initiative waiting for military buildups? Sacrifice within the agencies in the DoD is inevitable, why would we not sacrifice that which isn't needed and reinforce our strengths?
Once a Marine, Always a Marine
I love jarheads, but you have to take off the green-tinted glasses.
1. You say Marines need to increase ops tempo - that tells me you aren't in service right now. Marines will work themselves into the ground, and that's what you're asking them to do. Any proposal to truly preserve America's long-term power needs to reduce the Ops tempo of the Marines, and needs to reduce it soon.
2. Why are we still wasting money on Amphib ships? They are nothing but high-payoff, soft targets. I know amphib is in the Marine's history, but what makes Marines great today is their light load, tooth/tail ratio, and can-do attitude that will never accept defeat. Get over the amphib thing and accept that you're going to walk or fly into virtually every engagement in the future.
3. The Marines are business geniuses. They have outsourced all their support functions to the Navy, and they even let the Navy pay to do the work for the Marines. It's one of the truly great accounting tricks of the Defense budget. I'm not complaining, just saying to count the cost correctly when you talk about plus-ing up the Marines.
Actually, as an active duty duty Marine Officer who returned from Afghanistan five months ago, I appreciate the debate.
I refute the idea that we will be flown into future conflicts. The logistical throughput for a Battalion Landing Team (BLT) is much greater being supported by the organic Amphibious Read Group (ARG) and supporting Maritime Preposition Forces (MPF). MPFs, Merchant Marine, and contracted Naval logistical support are already outhere supporting all of the Navy's needs across the globe. It is much, much faster, cheaper, and easier to support a unit that is embarked with its own equipment (and self sustaining for up to 30 days; the core capability of a MEU) than it is to find an airfield and fly everyone in, as well as uniting them with their gear from an MPF offload. Who's going to seize and secure the airfield? Who's going to offload the gear from the MPF? Fly them to a friendly country, get them on their gear, then move them in? Might as well have just had the MUE ready. The response time is however long it takes the ships to steam to the hot spot vice weeks. Then you have to build big FOBs that are heavily logistically burdensome (see Afghanistan). If you're going to take weeks to get ready and do an MPF offload of that scale might as well send the Army. This isn't a slight on the Army just different funtions.
Also, the Op Tempo statement was in reference to a Corps not committed to Afg/Iraq deployments (call it "peacetime" if you'd like). From a strategic and operational standpoint it would require an increase in tempo by supplying more infantry battalions to more MEUs.
As far as the amphibs go, the ones we have are old and everyone knows it. Some newer ones don't even have well-decks. Its just not the Navy's priority. Would you rather be the captain of a cruiser and shoot tomahawks or ferry a bunch of stinky, fight prone, Marines from libo port to libo port who are waiting for a war? The priority should be shifted to emphasize the importance of the amphib mission in national security. Then it becomes a desirable job and the right ships get built.
Having done a WESTPAC MEU myself I can say it was the time of my life and Marines would jump over each other to do it. And just saying...I'm pretty confident there were about 1200 Marines ready and excited and about 200K jealous ones, at the prospect of a MEU following in the footsteps of Lt Pressley O'Bannon and the second line of our beloved Hymn just off the coast of Tripoli...
You know that he US lost the first war with North Africa and the "Halls of Montezuma" was nothing to sing about--the Marines took over a boys school, sing and shout it out, I guess.
You know that he US lost the first war with North Africa and the "Halls of Montezuma" was nothing to sing about--the Marines took over a boys school, sing and shout it out, I guess.
And here is Hillary in Pakistan giving orders to the government.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/27/clinton-zardari-us-pakistan-bin-laden
I would guess Washington has yet to figure out that the more it attempts to push Pakistan around the less cooperation it will get. I presume that the lack of "cooperation" to date is indicative of Pakistan's not liking US pressure. Passive resistance, as it were.
The problem is not with Sergeant Clinton giving barking orders to the Pakistani generals. The trouble they do not take them. Maybe we shall send a soft-spoken general who will convince their "civilian" rulers to listen.
Pupil, you have homework to do, look up "realism" in terms of foreign policy. Then reflect on how utterly ignorant your comment was
The supremacist mist emanating from Walt is clearly crawling into the minds of the captive audience. How about official racial quotas?
The Money Quote referenced by Mr. Walt must be paired with this companion from the speech.
"For starters, I have long believed – and I still do – that the defense budget, however large it may be, is not the cause of this country’s fiscal woes. However, as matter of simple arithmetic and political reality, the Department of Defense must be at least part of the solution. "
Secretary Gates is right on to say that DOD budgets will have to level off or slightly decrease. He's also right to say that the solution has to protect the capability of the force while trimming the fat. It would help tremendously if the whole federal government, and not just the DOD, heeded his words about the failure of making mindless cuts to the top line. The real failure of the entire government sector is the failure to increase productivity at a pace similar to what has happened in the private sector over the past few decades. Secretary Gates's efforts to do that within the DOD are commendable, but incomplete. I hope his successor takes up the fight.
Don't let door hit ya, where the good lord split ya.
Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.
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