Tuesday, May 31, 2011 - 12:32 PM
Juan Cole had a nice piece over the weekend on the paltry Western offers of support for the Arab Spring. Helping the Arab economies recover and securing a moderate and democratic outcome in Egypt and Tunisia (and maybe elsewhere) is arguably one of the more significant priorities in contemporary international affairs, yet pledges of outside help have been pretty meager.
This isn't surprising, of course, because the United States is in deep fiscal trouble and some of our European allies are in even worse shape. So we're trying to get the Arab oil exporters to pony up a lot of the money, or we're making vague commitments of support that may not even be implemented.
If you want a comparison that reveals how our recent profligacy has undermined our ability to make bold moves in cases like this, consider that the European Recovery Program (aka the "Marshall Plan") cost about $13 billion in 1948 dollars, which would the equivalent of about $113 billion today. The U.S. economy was only about $270 billion back then, so Marshall Plan aid amounted to roughly 5 percent of U.S. GDP. If Washington were to pledge a similar percentage today, it would be about $700 billion. Of course, Egypt and Tunisia are just two countries, not a whole continent, but even a tenth of that amount would be some $70 billion (which is less than we spend each year fighting in Afghanistan). Yet nobody seems to be thinking in these terms. After all, what did Obama offer Egypt in his speech at the State Department? A couple of billion in loan guarantees and debt relief, and that's all. And I'm not saying he should've have pledged more, because I've no idea where he could find it or how he'd get Congress to authorize it.
Which goes a long way toward explaining why the United States and its allies aren't going to have much influence over how the Arab spring evolves.
P.S. I'll be appearing at a conference session in Washington today (Tuesday), co-sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Kennedy School's Middle East Initiative. Other speakers include Nathan Brown, Marina Ottaway, Tarek Masoud, Nicholas Burns, Marwan Muasher, and Christopher Boucek. I don't know if it will be live-streamed or not, but you can find out more about it here.
EXPLORE:ARAB WORLD, MIDDLE EAST, DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMICS, EGYPT, FINANCE, FOREIGN AID, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
How much should we offer and what should we expect for our money? Personally, I think financial assistance without strings attached will be misguided. First it would be wise to see what kind of regimes will emerge out of this Arab Spring... there were occurrences in the past when we ended up sponsoring our own enemies...
That's how we helped Afghanistan after the Russkies left
And see how that turned out? We didn't like any of those replacement regimes enough to help them much, and at present we're locked in warfare with one of those regimes because we think another one we shepherded into being in the past decade might do better. Still hoping that. It ain't cheap when dollars for such enterprises start to flow. How to stop them flowing remains a mystery to us all.
Speaking of paltry our "support" of the Palestinians is a good case in point. Virtually invisible compared to our support of Israel. Asking Saudi Arabia to support democratic regimes is dead at conception. Ditto most of the big oil producers in the Gulf run by dictators. One might hope the Chinese who are flush with money might do something but the issue is probably too far away for them to be interested. Whether Iran might help I have no idea.
The USA since 2004 has given the following amount in all aid per person to Israel and to the Palestinians. To Israelis $2,429 per person. To the Palestinians $732 per person. The disparity in living standards between the two peoples is shocking and immense. And it is due to the oppression of the Palestinians by Israel without a scintilla of doubt. I can get the per capita income for the two groups from the CIA website if you would like or you can find it for yourself.
To make sure it is seen I will give the per capita income for Israel and for the Palestinian area (Gaza and West Bank) from the CIA website:
Israel: $29,500 per person
Palestinian area: $2,900 per person
or less that one tenth of that of Israel.
I googled your text in this long reply to ellerveira to see where you picked up this information. You have yet again, without attribution, cut and pasted an article that has already been cut and pasted into numerous neocon and hasbara sites. The point of these articles, however, do not even claim that Palestinians are the largest per capita recipients of US aid -- rather they maintain that these donations are larger then rest of the Palestinian economy.
Your assertion prefacing your plagiarized piece is totally incorrect. You dear marine, are a liar.
I have learned to pretty much ignore US Marine. He is not objective at all and his info is often just invented.
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/top-ten-us-foreign-aid-recipients.html
"Since the October War in 1973, Washington has provided Israel with a level of support dwarfing the amounts provided to any other state. It has been the largest annual recipient of direct U.S. economic and military assistance since 1976 and the largest total recipient since World War ll. Total direct U.S. aid to Israel amounts to well over $140 billion in 2003 dollars. Israel receives about $3 billion in direct foreign assistance each year, which is roughly one-fifth of America's entire foreign aid budget. In per capita terms, the United States gives each Israeli a direct subsidy worth about $500 per year. This largesse is especially striking when one realizes that Israel is now a wealthy industrial state with a per capita income roughly equal to South Korea or Spain.”
- John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt
"The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy"
I recall some twenty odd years ago reading a piece somewhere about a survey of US students’ finances in which, when asked to list their assets, many had included the limits on their credit cards. I thought at the time, how very different go public from their parents’ let alone grandparents’ attitudes to debt. Those students are presumably largely the generation in the thick of today’s financial morass. Perhaps those growing up in the uncertainties of today will revert to a more coherent set of principles. Of course, financial gurus say that would bring the card castle down; but they would, wouldn't they?
I might add that, as Walt says, we seem to be far happier spending billions to make war on Muslims and kill lots of them than to support their movements for democracy. In spite of all our nice talk about it all. Any wonder our reputation in the world of Islam is zilch and we are seen as colossal hypocrites?
I don't think there is much that the US can do except letting the process play out on its own and hope that the revolutions in the region turnout for the better. The US always has a feeling that it has to do something or some catastrophe will occur. Sometimes the best thing that the US can to is to step back and helped when asked,but otherwise butt out.
That's the same Juan Cole who supports our humanitarian bombing in LIbya, right?
we all know how the US supported the corrupt Arab heads of state for so many years. We all know by doing so democracy was put on hold for decades. We all know one of the main reasons we did this is so they wouldn’t pester the Jews. And finally, we all know how badly this turned out. I just don't understand why we can't these people alone? Why must America always presume to know what’s right for other nations. Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, And the borrower is servant to the lender.
I thought at the time, how very different go public from their parents’ let alone grandparents’ attitudes to debt. Those students are presumably largely the generation sázkové kanceláre in the thick of today’s financial morass. Perhaps those growing up in the uncertainties of today will revert to a more coherent set of principles. Of course, financial gurus say that would bring the card castle down; but they would.The disparity in living standards between the two peoples is shocking and immense. And it is due to the oppression of the Palestinians by Israel without a scintilla of doubt. I can get the per capita income for the two groups from the CIA website if you would like or you can find it for yourself.
Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.
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