Correct Professor Walt, a great deal of this does not make any sense, if you take it at face value that is.

Does this not much more resemble an elaborate and professional Mossad set-up than an Iranian plot. Cui Bono? (What POSSIBLE good interest of Iran would be served by a bomb assassination of the Saudi ambassador in DC? Who propagates for war with Iran? Would those interests be served?) But that point aside...

According to Rasool Nafisi, an Iranian-American scholar who studies the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, rogue elements of the Revolutionary Guards Quds force conceivably might have concocted the plot without top-level approval, perhaps to prevent rapprochement between Iran and the U.S.

So why play into their hands and let them succeed even though the plot itself failed? The absolute last thing this country needs is to be played into a new and most catastrophic war with Iran. We love to invoke international law when it serves our purposes, and totally ignore it when it suits us.

Where was international law when we overthrew the Iranian democracy in 1953 via CIA operation Ajax? (from which devolves all our problems with Iran)

Where was international law when we supported Saddam’s eight-year war with Iran, including the use of chemical weapons, and Rumsfield went to Iraq to shake his hand?

Where was international law when in 1988 a US cruiser shot down an Iranian Airbus in the Persian Gulf, in Iranian national waters, killing 290 civilians?

The absolute last thing we need is another catastrophic war with Iran. Sure, we can blast them and create vast chaos, but chaos is one enemy no amount of bombing can cure. How does the slamming shut of the Straights of Hormuz sound to you, through which passes about half of all the petroleum exports of the whole world? Small boat actions and various missile strikes could do that very easily.

I argue we should not let the Quds force succeed (if they were not being set-up that is) even though their plot failed. Sounds reasonable to me.

I agree it doesn't add up. Looks sketchy but I doubt this is a political ploy by Obama, He wouldnt have much to gain and is too smart to put together a case like this. So he doesnt need to come clean. He doesnt run investigations.

Realist - ha - greedy shapeshifter!

I agree with you that this whole thing seems very flimsy, but I'd add a cautionary note, that if one had looked at Mohammad Atta's CV (as well as the rest), it would not have impressed one as being capable of pulling off 9/11, either...

"As I said yesterday, I don't know what actually happened here, and I remain open to the possibility that there really was some sort of officially-sanctioned Iranian plot to assassinate foreign ambassadors here on U.S. soil."

Given Prof Walt's editorial history, I sincerely doubt this.

"Iran's leaders are not stupid, and surely they would have known that a plot like this ran the risk of triggering a very harsh U.S. response."

The invasion scenario playing out in your head is pure fantasy. Given how overextended US forces are, it is highly unlikely the US response would have been anything more than some harsh words to the effect of, "Iran you have been a very naughty boy!"

"Given that extraordinary risk, is it plausible to believe they would have entrusted such a sensitive mission to a serial bungler like Ababsiar? If you are going to attack a target in the United States, wouldn't you send your A Team, instead of Mr. Magoo?"

An appeal to credulity is not support of an argument. Especially since there have been plenty of instances of complicated plots being put in the hands of incompetents. I guess Prof. Walt never heard of Watergate.

... chapter 10, "Iran in the Crosshairs". On page 302, you quote from Scott Ritter's "Target Iran": "If there is an American war with Iran, it is a war that was made in Israel and nowhere else."

To me, this plot bears very obvious traits of an Israeli Mossad scheme, concocted to make Uncle Sam start another costly war in the ME area, with the IDF looking on, hoping to reap the "fruits" from the undertaking.

Jesus, dear professor Walt, could you possibly use your influence to warn President Obama from stepping into this nasty trap?

Curveball, yellowcake, Leeden, Feith, Powell's speech, stove piping, WMD's, ice creme trucks carrying chemical weapons....

Here we go again. You gotta have the I.Q. of a raisin to not see where this headed.

It's amazing isn't is how the FBI has "saved us" from the stings they set up but failed to save us when it wasn't a sting they set up like Fort Hood shooting.

Odd how that works out isn't it?

I quote: " Al Qaeda destroyed the World Trade Center and damaged the Pentagon, and we went out and invaded not one but two countries in response. When it comes to hitting back, in short, we tend to do so with enthusiasm."

Enthusiasm and considerable inaccuracy. There was no reason for hitting back at Iraq over the WTC outrage -- "back" suggests that the outrage was connected with Iraq. It wasn't. In Afghanistan, the main achievement seems to have been evicting al-Qaeda from that nation in 2001, with little al-Qaeda personnel loss, and hanging around on the prextexts that either a) the Taliban is al-Qaeda or b) al-Qaeda will swarm back into Afghanistan when NATO leaves there. Or both.

Since al-Qaeda had announced before 9/11 that what it wanted to do was bleed America as dry as possible, and bin Laden kept making this point publicly until October 2004, the current state of the nation suggests that the terrorists won big at the start of the millennium. And will win bigger. The Pentagon today wages war against al-Qaeda abroad, and domestically, seems against any civil administration that hopes to get the military pulled back from Afghanistan -- ever.

During these ten years, agreement has become general amond the nation's intelligence services that the way of the global war on terror -- rather than the idea of the war itself -- has created a fabulous number of anti-American terrorists worldwide. Oops.

It explains how the Israeli lobby has been at work to create a bogus Iranian threat and has been making back-end dealings with the Obama administration since 2008. He leaked classified Israeli information from an FBI translator.

www.richardsilverstein.com

Here, it follows similarly that there must be some pressure on the administration to kowtow with these policies. Like Monica Lewinsky was probably a honey pot, Fast and Furious was a bait and trap for the entire Obama Administration.

There is no government in the world that is quite as arrogant as Israel's, in that they would try to hatch a false-flag plot of this amateur nature and think that people would actually believe that Iran laid the egg.

If anything, their hubris has served to awaken even more sheeple. Keep the hits coming, Netanyahoo ;)

knows anything first hand.

Walt's on his soap box claiming "I don't know" but let me tell you anyway what I don't know and why I'm right.

Same thing for Juan Cole, Tony Karon, et. al.

But they know what they don't know.

If we're going to play talking head roulette, I toss into the ring David Ignatius of the Washington Post and Lebanon Daily Star.

He knows a bit more than Walt, and posits similar questions, and offers up another POV.

Sure, it's a POV and an op-ed, but hey, in this case one opinion is no better or worse than any of the other cards that Walt has tossed on to the table alongside his own ignorance.

Here's the link:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/those-keystone-iranians/2011/10/12/gIQAlixDgL_story.html

" by whatever groups or countries might benefit from further deterioration in U.S.-Iranian relations." hmmmm....Israel perhaps.? Why no-one seems to care that a false flag operation like this is the bread and butter of the Mossad is beyond me. They have been successfully pulling off assassinations and false flag operations in countries all over the world for the past 50 years. I'm NOT saying that Iran hasn't done this, I'm just saying I agree that it smells fishy...and it doesnt look great for Israel (the only country with the stones and the unbelievable arrogance to believe that this would be justified).

I am shocked Walt didn't add, "I have no proof, but it was probably the Israelis." Oh wait, the crazies here have brought it up.

If the Mossad wanting the bombings to be completed so the US would attack Iran , then you have to think the Mossad are incompetent idiots. If the Mossad wanted him to be caught, then they risk losing the most important relationship they have if found out for almost no gain whatsoever. It would be less risky for Israels survival to attack Iran themselves, than to risk losing US support by bombing or fake bombing the US and blame Iran. Oh and explain the $100,000 wired from Iran. Do the Israelis have Iranian bank accounts?

IT WAS THE IRANIANS!

In order to believe this story you have to assume that the Iranian revolutionary guards is being run by Maxwell Smart.

To kick off his reelection campaign in the spring, Obama ordered bin Laden's murder, all very Hollywood-style, featuring the fabulous SEALs. Macho, macho! Obama saves America. After a series of lesser special killing events, now we've arrived at the Iran Caper. It sounds like David Petraeus slinks around in this matter, even if in the background.

Not to simplify a plot that required some creative thinking on somebody's part, but Obama hopes to deflect attention from the once and future campaign issue, the economy. Republicans are beating the drums, as they always do, to show that our country must not shrink the defense budget because of all the awful things that can happen if we do. Scare tactic, in other words. Ironically, this week the Underwear Bomber has been on trial. When he made his blow-up attempt on a plane, there were no boots on the ground. No Fancy Pants generals in command. Citizens saved the day - just as they did in Times Square. Americans have wised up about political beings and military wonks. Not buying their silliness.

Of course, this whole thing is a bit silly, but if we take into account the kind of people who drive foreign policy in both parties, it more than adds up.
The concerns are both foreign-affairs and economic. Zionists wanna find any excuse to go after Iran--never mind that Israel sent its goons into Iran to assassinate people and never mind that Obama ordered the assassination of American citizens without proper due process.
There is also the economic factor. With the economy down in the doldrums, some people--even Krugman--are beating the drums of war. They figure if WWII brought America out of the Great Depression, maybe we need military buildup--with Iran as the excuse--for another round of stimulus.

Great piece. David Gardner at the Financial Times also had some comments of merit, re: implausibility of the scheme. (ft.com/rachmanblog)

Walt seems to offer a rational perspective.

Bush and Obama have articulated a history of lies and deceptions to sabotage the global peace and harmony amongst people of varied cultures and civilizations.

Obama is selling $60 Billions worth of obsolete weapons to Saudis. Nobody appears to have raised any eye brows against it. To sustain a war economy, America needs mindless Arab authoritarian rulers to buy its products and services. With the Iranian bogus plot, the Us Administration wants to create the perception of a new threat from Iran to sell more weapons and send more troops to Arabia. Who is close to the White House, Mexican mafia or the distant Iranian clerics hugging each other to remain safe from the US warmongering. The story makes no sense as Prof Walt has pointed out clearly. With failing outcomes of the two Wars against Islam, America has lost sense of rational THINKING and DIRECTION, it lives in darkness and does not have clue about where it heading to.

Perhaps the respected professor's understanding (or luck thereof) of the Mullahs famous duplicity and outright dishonesty does not add up.

He needs to brash up on that famous Iranian custom of Ta'arrof to which these Mullahs have using to fool the western countries.

U.S. intelligence officials have said that they do have intelligence that high-ranking Iranian government officials were involved in the plot. But I don't know if the U.S. government knows how far up the chain of command the plot went.

The DEA informant actually did record his conversations with Ababasiar, or at least some of them.

And we don't know yet that Iranian-backed terrorists such as the Qods Force or Hezbollah weren't going to be involved in the bombings and assassinations. Iran probably wanted to hire a Mexican drug cartel, because the cartels have established operations throughout the United States and know their way around. Iranian backed terrorists, including Hezbollah and the Qods Force have established relations with drug cartels throughout Latin America, including in Mexico. The bombs that the cartels have used in Mexico came from knowledge given by Hezbollah and the Qods Force. Iranian-backed terrorists have used cartel drug smuggling routes to get across the border to the United States.

Mahboob K. wrote this: "Bush and Obama have articulated a history of lies and deceptions to sabotage the global peace and harmony amongst people of varied cultures and civilizations."

Mahboob K.: Until the second coming of Jesus, there will never be true "global peace and harmony amongst people of varied cultures and civilizations." We can all try to get along as best as we can, but the U.S. and its closest allies can't really get along with countries or non-state actors that don't adhere to Western liberal democratic values, or at least adhere to the prevailing liberal international order. And Iran, as a terrorist-supporting thugocracy, adheres to neither. Saudi Arabia may be a relatively brutal absolute monarchy, but at least it does work with the United States and its closes allies, including Israel, which has covert intelligence cooperation with Saudi Arabia. Also, the Saudi king and his closest advisers are relatively moderate compared with many of their subjects. The king supports women being allowed to drive, but he doesn't have the support of many of his subjects, especially the Muslim clerics who are generally quite radical in their views and whose support the king needs to stay in power. Just recently the king pardoned a woman who was sentenced to lashes for driving. Many Saudis hate the royal family for allowing U.S. troops to be stationed in Saudi Arabia during and after the Persian Gulf War. This was one of the main reasons that Osama Bin Laden hated the United States. And so many Saudis and other Gulf Arabs helped to finance Bin Laden's terrorist operations.

Neoleft wrote: "Why do that when Iran has established operations throughout the Middle east and know their way around?"

By doing bombings and assassinations on U.S. soil, Iran would also be attacking the United States. And it is likely that many U.S. citizens would be killed too.

Unless one believes this plot was manufactured entirely by rogue elements within the Obama administration, the details provided so far seem to support the involvement of Ababasiar's cousin and Quds Force senior commander Abdul Reza Shahlai.

Ababasiar may be a bungling, disorganized screw-up to his Texas neighbors and associates, but for a variety of reasons ranging from cultural differences to human nature, its entirely possible that he appeared otherwise to his cousin and others in Iran.

Given the internal tensions and multiple centers of power in the Iranian hierarchy, its difficult to speculate who beyond Shahlai might have had knowledge of this plan. How Shahlai fares in the future could tell us something about how favorably he's viewed by Iran's higher powers. Or not.

I find all the talk of war a distraction. Its not going to happen - but it won't stop Seymour Hersh and others from making it a cottage industry.

This whole story from the start was a foolish attempt by pro Israeli agents to push the U.S to a new height in regards to Iranian hostility. We succumbed to CURVEBALL story on Iraq, and still paying the price of foolishness.

Dear Professor:

Allow me to suggest that describing yourself as "A realist in an ideological age" ignores the fact that optimists and realists both consider themselves to be realists. So it would seem that you have a lot of company.

Also, if I may be so bold to ask, why is the top of your head cropped off in your photo? Are you bald?

Your obedient servant,

The Baron

P.S. Your article is very nice.

For me, the real complication is that not only the plot seems too amateurish to be possibly planned by the Iranian elite force, it looks too idiotic even to be a made-up one.

It seems everyone--Iran (if allegations are right), the unknown party involved in faking such a plot, and, above all, the DoJ--really need to do one hell of a better job.

This story stinks in every aspect.

I'm afraid that you would have to be blind to not even stop and wonder why all these facts don't really add up, or even necessarily diy tips point to the Iranians. From you comment above, I can only assume that you know very little about Iran, its leadership, its history and the Israelis.