Posted By Stephen M. Walt Share

Here's a question for you: does it make sense for the United States to open its best universities to students from China (or any other potential long-term rival) and to help them to acquire advanced scientific and technical knowledge?

On the plus side, you could argue that all universities ought to admit the best and brightest applicants no matter where they come from, because that will help these universities do better work. Having smart students is a powerful spur to continued progress, no matter where they come from. Moreover, this practice might help the United States cream off some of the best foreign talent by convincing them to remain here after they graduate, where they will be of great benefit to the U.S. economy. And even if some of the best foreign students get trained here and then go back home, they can help their own societies develop, generate economic growth, and create bigger markets for everyone, so that the whole global economy grows and we all benefit.

But the downside is obvious too: if more and more of these well-trained people head back home, then U.S. universities will be transferring knowledge that might reduce America's comparative advantage. Even worse, we might be making it easier for other states to catch up or eventually surpass us in areas of advanced technology that have military implications (including cyber-security). So maybe we ought to be limiting foreign access to U.S. higher education, in order to preserve our own advantages for as long as we can.

There, in a nutshell, is a key difference between realists and liberals. Although the latter concede that there is a competitive element to world politics, they tend to downplay it and to focus primarily on the gains to be had from mutual cooperation. This tendency is evident in the emphasis placed on "engaging" China, which has been a hallmark of U.S. policy since the Clinton administration. This view stresses the need for cooperation and the benefits that the United States (and others) will gain as China becomes wealthier, and one dimension of that would be opening up U.S. institutions of higher education and collaborating with Chinese universities.

By contrast, realists tend to worry more about long-term shifts in the relative balance of power between the two sides, and warned that enabling Chinese growth could eventually place the United States in a position where its own influence is reduced. If you believe that Sino-American rivalry will be hard to avoid and potentially costly, then you'd want to start think hard about ways to slow China's rise. But nothing is cost-free: taking steps like that could reinforce Chinese suspicions-- duh! -- and at a minimum means consigning millions of Chinese citizens to lower standards of living. And guess what? It would probably also reduce U.S. standards of living too, although perhaps not by as much.

Here's one way to think about these starkly contrasting worldviews. For liberals, world politics is like playing music, and states are just like members of a band or orchestra. Making good music requires teamwork and cooperation, and the quality of the music generally improves the more highly skilled the musicians are. Among other things, this means that helping your fellow players improve is good for the group as a whole; if your bass player or drummer gets better, then the overall group sound gets better too. So members of a band or an orchestra should help each other out, and not worry about whether one player is improving faster than the others are. And while there can be elements of rivalry or jealousy within a band (or between different groups), it's usually not a zero-sum activity. If La Scala improves and makes opera more popular, that's good for the Met; just as the Beatles and other English groups kicked the door open for lots of other bands too. Similarly, if Wynton Marsalis becomes famous and reignites interest in jazz, then other jazz musicians benefit too.

Musicians obviously have to agree on what piece of music to play, and it helps to have rules to guide them, whether it's fully orchestrated score, a lead sheet, or even just a loose arrangement with a list of solos. Even more abstract forms of improvised jazz depend on hours of training and a shared understanding of musical language. Such norms or rules or tacit understandings facilitate cooperation, and make it possible for lots of individuals to play together without a lot of prior rehearsal.

Thus, music is a pretty good metaphor for the liberal view of world politics, which is why liberals emphasize the importance of international law, institutions, and hegemonic leadership. And that's why most American liberals like to talk about the indispensability of the United States: in their view, the world orchestra needs a conductor, and who is better positioned to play that role than Washington DC? But the underlying image is still one where all will be better off if they work together; and where everyone has a common interest in helping others improve. No wonder E.H. Carr famously characterized idealist (i.e., liberal) approaches as emphasizing the "harmony of interests."

By contrast, realists see international politics as less like music and more like sports. We're not talking about exquisite harmonies and seamless group dynamics; we're talking NFL football or World Cup Rugby. There are clear winners and losers, the competitors sometimes cheat, and athletes are fools if they spend any time helping rivals improve. Players have an interest in helping teammates get better, but you wouldn't expect Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals to be giving hitting tips to a member of the Texas Rangers right now, and you wouldn't expect Roger Federer to call up Andy Murray and offer him some advice on how to improve his serve.

Unlike music, the essence of sports is inherently competitive, and the winners normally get a lot more benefits than the also-rans do. Rules exist to define the nature of the competition, but everyone understands that some people might cheat. By comparison, it's not even clear what it would mean to "cheat" when you're trying to play music, or how "cheating" would be of any benefit.

So which view provides a better metaphor for world politics? Although both metaphors can offer some revealing insights, it won't surprise you to learn that I think foreign policy is a lot more like sports than it is like music-making. Even if states can gain from collaboration, the benefits of collaboration are not evenly distributed and relative power still matters. More importantly, the occasional periods of close cooperation are occasionally disrupted by all-out struggles that redistribute power and leave the winners better off and the losers licking their wounds. When that occurs, of course, the rules tend to fall by the wayside. Imagine an NFL game played for high stakes, and with no referees on the field.

And because states now that such struggles can occur at any time, the possibility casts a grim shadow over much of their behavior.

Finally, let's not forget that relative power matters in the supposedly collaborative world of music. Conductors and bandleaders (and sometimes financial backers) get to decide what pieces to feature, and minor players just play what they are told. It was Duke Ellington's orchestra, not Johnny Hodges', and there's a reason why most of the songs on the Beatles' albums are by Lennon or McCartney and not George Harrison or Ringo. Over time, changes in the distribution of power world-wide will determine who gets to call the tune, and we might want to think about that before the set list changes in ways we might not like.

Scott Heavey/Getty Images

 

NWL2110

3:40 PM ET

October 24, 2011

Realists play on 11

Perhap realists are musicians too.. they are just rock musicians, who keep trying to increase the volume on their amp louder than the next person in the band.

 

DIANA RELKE

4:27 PM ET

October 24, 2011

the limits of realism?

There once was a skater named Tonya Harding, who figured that the only way to improve her chances in the Olympics was to cripple -- literally -- her competition. It turned out badly for her.

There once was a superpower who figured that the only way to retain its supremacy was to cripple the manufacturing potential of its chief competitor by seizing control of the world's oil resources. It therefore invaded Afghanistan in order to control strategic access to the Caspian sea petroleum reserves, and it invaded Iraq for the purpose of making sure that American oil interests could monopolize Iraq's oil industry. It turned out badly for that superpower.

That's the problem with trying to win, not on your own merits but rather, by destroying the competition -- a situation in which everyone loses.

 

HURRICANEWARNING

5:39 PM ET

October 24, 2011

.....sigh...what are you

.....sigh...what are you talking about? Honestly.

 

DOUG12

5:44 PM ET

October 24, 2011

the limits of realism

The Afghans have agreed to permit Chinese oil exploration in Afghanistan. I tried to make this a poem or a haiku but I was unsuccessful.

 

DIANA RELKE

7:02 PM ET

October 24, 2011

Go take your meds and have a

Go take your meds and have a little nap. You'll be ok.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ09U_a80MM

 

SCOTTGOOSE

3:35 PM ET

October 25, 2011

The straw men you seek to set ablaze are elsewhere

Professor Walt: Great piece for TA's tutorials, and an interesting read.

@ Dianna: The straw men you seek to set ablaze are not here. This defensive realist is merely putting forth a thought experiment about how important relative gains are. He's not advocating the "destr[uction]" of "the competition."

(A): As we know, it was "conservative idealists," liberal interventionists, and neo-conservatives (or just insert any -ism relating to primacy-seeking grand strategists), and NOT realists who supported the invasion of Iraq. Indeed, the Realist's realists John Mearsheimer and Brent Scowcroft famously put forth stinging rebuttals to the aforementioned's argument for going to war. Though Realists by and large supported the invasion of Afghanistan, oil security was an ancillary, albeit consequential, factor that motivated the invasion. If you're anti-war, fine, but blame the right people if you so feel the need. Did we overestimate the threat of safe heavens in Afghanistan? Probably. But going to war for sheer material gain? There are a number of studies that debunk that claim, as war is inherently costly.

(B): This is nothing more or less than a terrific and highly accessible version of IR Theory 101-- a truncated version of Drezner's IR Theory for Zombies, if you will. And relative "power"--i.e., material power--undergirds Realist thought, so naturally Walt would lead with it as a concept. His hypothetical question about foreign students to U.S. universities presents a good example of how the balance of power can be shifted over time, but it says nothing about the U.S. "trying to win." Indeed, there is no winning in world politics, only losing--a perpetual fear of Realists, who interpret every opponent's movements skeptically and are thus willing to break the rules to "stay in the game". In a zero-sum (i.e., Realist) universe, and one need not "destroy the competition," but it must remain steps ahead to retain the status quo. Indeed, Walt's defensive realism validates his concern with maintaining U.S. hegemony, and because wars are inherently costly, he seeks to avoid them by, say, taking proactive measures like keeping out Chinese students for example.

It's all very clear. Walt de-nerdified IR theory a tad by using a sports example to show how important the rise of "the rest" will affect the current balance of power. He's not advocating we defeat our opponents; only that we take the necessary measures to preclude our opponents from dangerously harming U.S. interests. Notice that he's talking about *competition,* and not the inevitability of Sino-U.S. conflict (as an offensive realist like Mearsheimer or a neoclassical realist like Aaron Friedberg might argue.) Nobody ever said Realism is unequivocally the frame from which to view world politics; it's just how Walt sees the world.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

8:26 PM ET

October 25, 2011

scott

As to your point A) you're flatly wrong and the papers abound supporting the notion that we went to war for oil and that our interest in Afghanistan are keenly focused on the long known mineral wealth there, as well as the old pipeline proposal that Sunoco had slated since the eve of 9/11.

You make many good and fair points but on this one you are wrong. One problem with your reasoning is that you miss who bears the various costs. The costs of war won't fall on the corporations or those who lobby for the war/mineral lobby; but on the tax payer. So, your conflating of the cost with the benefits are mislaid.

 

HB209

7:32 PM ET

November 14, 2011

great analogy

I think that is a great analogy. Being a realist is like showing tough love to your kids because you know whats right for them in the long run and they will look back on it all and thank you later. Being a liberal is like a lenient parent giving their kid everything they want just because they throw a hissy fit sylvania tablet ipad alternatives.

 

DAVID IN DC

4:31 PM ET

October 24, 2011

We should not allow foreigners to attend our universities?

At least, those who are or may be rival powers.

This is your view, Steve?

And how do you think this should be addressed for private universities, by law?

 

COMMON SENSE REALIST

7:25 PM ET

October 24, 2011

Entry barriers

David in DC,
imposing an entry barrier to foreign students is quite simple - the government does not issue an entrance visa (student visa) to potentially competitive (harmful) foreigners.
The universities could not do much about it.

However, this is the first time that I fully disagree with professor Walt (funny, so far I thought of myself as a realist who adores sport competitions).
The brightest foreign students would love to study in US and subsequently to work there, providing that they manage to finance their studies in the first place and later to be accepted in the working arena without discrimination.
In case of Chinese, or Russians, probably some 20% would choose to return home anyway, the rest would be glad to take the opportunity in the leading country as United States.
And even those who return home would be helpful for US in spreading (explaining) american culture in their native country and maintaining contacts with US students with whom they have shared the classroom.

I admit that I am quite subjective in this matter, since I took my university degree in Italy as a foreigner. However, all my italian friends and acquintances are happy to contact me even today, either privately or for business.

With kind regards to all ....

 

KUNINO

8:17 PM ET

October 24, 2011

College in Taiwan

Taiwan (the republic of China) is one-third the land mass of Ohio and has a population over 20 million. It is deficient in many natural resources, and its farmland is interrupted by many mountains. Budgeting is serious business there, and some decades ago it was decided that admission to the nation's colleges would be in merit, and for locals. If your kid wasn't smart enough to get into college, there would be no make-good degree mills around to pretend that (s)he was. So strongly is this policed, my guide to the education system pointed out that "If you hear somebody speak about his son or daughter attending Harvard, Stanford or any other American college for a first degree, you know that the kid was too dumb to get into college in Taiwan, and the father is rich or influential enough to pay for second-best."

Heard 20 years ago. Still true?

Mr Walt's column today is prompted, although he might not be aware of this, by the reversing tide of Chinese expatriates. In olden days, five years or more ago, smart students from foreign lands arrived in the US for education and stayed to enjoy the fruits of a rich and high-paying nation. In other words, seduction. But now, many students from China sense that they will have better futures back home, and they want to take the US learning there to get one. Thit does not apply only to college graduates. Many Chinese who emigrated 10 and 20years ago to finds work (as shopkeepers, most of them) in English-speaking nations, are now being headhunted from back home. In today's economy, speaking putonghua and English, and understanding the western business mind are attractive qualities, worth real money.

 

ERIK BIRD

7:01 PM ET

October 25, 2011

overpriced education

Yep, overpriced education is one of the few things the U.S. exports now adays.

 

LA REGINA

8:23 PM ET

October 24, 2011

I disagree.

Justifying not allowing Chinese students into American university systems due to a comparative advantage also seems to extend into xenophobia, which Realism may point out exists partially due to the security dilemma. Still, it seems this is an instance where discrimination is unfair. Students are not the government and they do not necessarily act on the behalf of the state. If the US truly wanted to keep up its own competitive advantage in education, it would focus on making our public schools better for its students instead of worrying about enforcing the borders. Plus, China is one of the most appealing countries for English-speakers to go to and teach English in because they are willing to import native-speaking English teachers and pay them well. I don't know how as a professor you can be okay with the idea of denying other students the possibility to learn due to some national security paranoia.

Having been someone who played sports and was in orchestra, I can say that I don't agree with this metaphor. Within an orchestra, you have members competing against each other to get the best seats. The conductor tries to insure everyone has a common goal or purpose, but everyone is still looking out for no. 1. In rock bands and pop bands and whatever other kinds of bands, group members have a lot of their own friction probably resulting from having several inflated egos in one shared space. Not to mention bands for the most part are competing with other bands for money, fame, fortune and whatever other perks exist. When I played softball, we were much more encouraging of each other. We did share tips on how to be better with each other and there is a reason sports analogies are more often used in team work. Both of these activities promote healthy competition, although they both have the potential to turn ugly. In any case, it seems like if the US wants to keep its power as a long-term interest, it would find a better way than putting up a giant "do not enter, we're afraid of you" sign.

 

SARK7366

7:26 PM ET

October 25, 2011

Unfair?

Chinese students aren't the government, but if a majority of them are returning to China to strengthen the Chinese economy and tech sector than from a relative power perspective it doesn't make sense to educate them. Yes, it might be unfair for the Chinese students who are idealistic lovers of democracy to have their chance come to the U.S. denied, but from a broad perspective it's not really an issue. Of course, we shouldn't cut off all access to Chinese students as a broad and open perspective is an important aspect of higher education, but at the same time we shouldn't be training the Chinese scientists and leaders who will be working to reduce America's power in the future.

 

LOBEWIPER

12:22 AM ET

October 25, 2011

Prof. Walt,

If I didn't know better, I would say this little article of yours was designed to test the waters for a job as foreign policy advisor (which I would whole-heartedly support, by the way...)

 

LOBEWIPER

12:41 AM ET

October 25, 2011

On a more serious note,

Prof. Walt is nothing if not a long-term thinker who considers possible future outcomes of foreign policy. Higher education is currently one of several American competitive advantages vis a vis China. International relations are most influenced by the perceived self-interests of the nations involved, not idealistic principles. The reality is that nations compete, and giving away knowledge may be ultimately not in our self-interest. This is an empirical (testable by data) question, and someone should try to study it (if they haven't already). There may be things China would be willing to do that clearly ARE in America's interests in exchange for continued access to American higher education. Let's don't reject this possibility without further consideration and try to think both short and long term.

 

MORANI YA SIMBA

7:07 AM ET

October 25, 2011

A better idea would be to give out green cards to them

I don't know if Prof. Walt noticed, but most Chinese and Indian students who come to the US, and to Europe for that matter, train to become engineers and scientists. These are not the most popular subjects for American students to pursue in grad school. American science and engineering schools would suffer without the Asian students. So it would be a far better "long term" idea to hand out green cards with the Master's and PhD diplomas.

 

MORANI YA SIMBA

7:08 AM ET

October 25, 2011

I am very disappointed in this article

It seems both mean and smallish in attitude

 

CHARYBDIS

8:31 AM ET

October 25, 2011

Music and realism

Maybe I am a little off topic, but here goes:

Is there a new piece of military music waiting in the wings? Combining the recent news of A), the Ababsiar plot, with B), the U.S. announcement that U.S. Forces in Iraq are going to leave Iraq by upcoming New Year, will the realism of this turn out to be the long expected Iran Campaign, in order to smash Iran's nuclear facilities and secure the situation for Israel's Likud Government?

 

NICOLAS19

12:12 PM ET

October 25, 2011

the metaphors are inept

IR is not like music, but it is not like sports either.

The music comparison is faulty, because if one musician gets better, the other musician does not necessarily gets worse, the whole orchestra can improve at the same time. This is not possible for the whole world because of the scarcity and disproportionate allocation of resources fueling growth. It is like if the musicians were handed different sizes of music sheets, the ones with bigger sheets had the advantage, they could get better at playing easier. In IR, the countries controlling the resources have at least indirect control over other countries using those resources, something musicians don't have.

The sports comparison is faulty, because in sports breaking the rules gets you disqualified. In IR, breaking the rules gives you benefits as long as someone stronger than you decides to intervene (WWII). If there is no stronger, you can break them at will (US nowadays). Another fault is that in sports you cannot actively thwart the development of a competitor, you are left to your own devices to outgrow them. In IR there are plenty of direct or indirect means to hinder an adversary's progress (smearing, embargoing, inciting dissent, war, etc.).

I sincerely don't know where Walt is getting to with this article. But I'm sure he wants to tell us something and wait eagerly for the follow up.

 

TERRY BRENNAN

4:30 PM ET

October 25, 2011

Check out Phillip Bobbitt

Phillip Bobbitt's "The Shield of Achilles" give some precise descriptions of your intuitions. He characterizes them as different ways that countries will attempt to dominate the post-Cold War world.

Japan, and now China, follow a mercantile strategy, where they struggle to gain more goods and power relative to other countries. These are Walt's realists and jocks.

The United States follows an entrepreneurial strategy, where they struggle to increase the size of the pie -- to provide more goods for everyone. There are Walt's liberals and musicians.

Europe follows an managerial strategy, that seeks to both increase the size of the pie and get more of it for themselves.

"The Shield of Achilles" is a magisterial treatment of these deep strategies, especially of how law and strategy interact to create state legitimacy. It is much more penetrating than Walt's intuitions.

 

LABIBLIOTECA

5:35 PM ET

October 25, 2011

What about constructivists?

So realists are athletes, and liberals are musicians...what are constructivists?

 

LOBEWIPER

12:21 AM ET

October 26, 2011

Constructionists are

carpenters, silly!

 

LOBEWIPER

12:21 AM ET

October 26, 2011

Sorry,

Meant to say, "constructivists"

 

NICHOLAS WIBBERLEY

2:20 AM ET

October 26, 2011

Human nature

A nation’s educational system is a resource. Security and prosperity encourage generosity, insecurity discourages it.

 

D36WILLIAMS

6:06 AM ET

October 26, 2011

opportunity to plunder China's Talent

You have a funny dichotomy but I offer another reason to have all the best Chinese students we can get to come to America. Make China's best and brightest either American, or increase their sympathy with us. Let's go out there and steal all we can!

 

SONGSHU

11:41 AM ET

October 26, 2011

Bad news for Realists

At least if we welcome foreigners into our universities, we can benefit from their knowledge and experiences while passing along to them ours, a point that Walt oddly fails entirely to consider.

The real problems begin when a company like, oh, let's say GE, moves its operations from the US to China in order to record a slight uptick in profits for its next quarterly earnings report and nudge the stock a few points higher. It begins to manufacture a product which cannibalized years, if not decades, of research and untold billions of dollars. From the lowest assembly line worker to the highest manager, each worker is foreign. In the span of a year, GE has passed along trade secrets and know-how that took a generation to master itself. Why would a company be so myopic? Because the CEO will look like a genius for cutting costs and golden parachute himself out of there as soon as his folly is uncovered and recognized. Multiply this example by however many MNCs have moved production and manufacturing eastward, and it becomes easy to see a pattern that will become very problematic for the US in the not-too-distant future

 

EXMOD 27

5:27 PM ET

October 26, 2011

Liberals are borgs, not musicians

Liberals' mantra is that you will be assimilated. If you want to compete with the west you have to become the west (liberal). Let the Chinese students voluntarily step into the great assimilation chambers that are the US universities. They will head back to China as liberals and continue to assimilate their countrymen to the glory of western liberal thought. Once liberals they will understand that they can make more money pursuing liberal thoughts than realists thoughts. It is inevitable (as long as we don't destroy the planet or run out of vital resources in the meantime and then it's scurry back to the realists model). Have faith my friends. All hail to the individual.

 

SUHAILI

7:49 PM ET

October 27, 2011

what constitute power

power talking may be more realistic. the point however is to think power in an up-to-date fashion, as what constitute power do change. like what is more powerful, box cutters or A-bombs?

 

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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