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Posted By Stephen M. Walt
Wednesday, November 23, 2011 - 1:10 PM
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It's Thanksgiving once again, and it's become something of a ritual for me to record what I'm feeling grateful for each year. For starters, I want to thank the various people who responded to my request for advice on "policy analysis" yesterday, both via the "comments" section and to me directly. I got some very good suggestions, and I appreciate the help. Whether my students will be similarly appreciative remains to be seen.
This year, I'm thankful that the euro hasn't collapsed - yet -- and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that it won't. It's true that the unraveling of the eurozone would be a striking vindication of a broadly realist view of international relations, but it would also produce tremendous human suffering and that's way too big a price to pay to vindicate a theory. So I hope Europe's leaders manage to defy my usual pessimism and navigate through the crisis. If they do, I'll be even more thankful next year.
I'm also grateful that there's been no war with Iran. Whatever the Obama administration's other shortcomings might have been, those at the top seem to have understood the folly and futility of unleashing major military action against Iran. I won't give them high marks for imaginative diplomacy, but at least they haven't done great harm.
I'm also giving thanks that the United States is getting out of Iraq, and I wish I could believe that we will draw the right long-term lessons from the debacle. On that score, it is not a good sign that many of the architects of that war are still taken seriously as foreign policy "experts," and some are even advising GOP candidates. Doesn't say much for our national learning curve, does it? But even if historical amnesia sets in quickly, I'm pleased that we are finally leaving Iraq to its own leaders. Now if we can just draw a similar conclusion about that other exercise in imperial futility ... Afghanistan.
Like nearly everyone, I'm troubled by the continued turmoil in Egypt and by the Assad regime's brutal behavior in Syria. But I'm thankful that the situation in Libya has thus far defied my worst fears and made at least some modest progress toward the establishment of a more legitimate political order. The capture of former heir-apparent (and accused war criminal) Saif al-Islam Qaddafi and former security head Abudullah al-Senussi pretty much eliminates any possibility of a "loyalist" insurgency, which is a good sign too. The country still has a long way to go, but I will be keeping my fingers crossed.
On a purely personal note, I'm thankful for the courageous policy analysts, writers and bloggers who make it easier for me to do this blog. I'm talking about people who seek puncture conventional wisdom, challenge orthodoxies, and rock the boat on occasion. I value them because they are an antidote to the flood of cautious semi-official narratives that dominate most of the writing on foreign policy, and so they help me think outside the box. So heartfelt thanks to Carl Conetta, Phil Weiss, Juan Cole, Gordon Adams, Martin Wolf, Jerry Haber, Uri Avnery, Jim Lobe, Helena Cobban, Glenn Greenwald, M. J. Rosenberg, John Mueller, Andrew Sullivan, Spencer Ackerman, Jerry Slater, Gideon Rachman, and many others too numerous to list or even remember. I don't know a lot of the people just mentioned, and I don't always agree with any of them. Heck, I don't always agree with this guy either. But I'm glad they are doing what they do.
Of course, I cannot omit my annual word of thanks to the whole gang at FP, including the reporters, writers, and bloggers with whom I've occasionally tussled. The editors remain a delight with whom to work, and it's been a pleasure to be part of their team. And because all bloggers ultimately depend on readers, I'm especially grateful for those of you who take the time to read this stuff.
With each passing year, I've become more aware and more appreciative of my own good fortune. It's been a pretty soft gig to be born a white American male in the mid-1950s, in a country enjoying enormous geopolitical advantages and considerable prosperity. I like to think I've done ok with the advantages I was handed, and there's no doubt that the deck was stacked in my favor from the start. And that goes for a lot of my colleagues and contemporaries too.
More broadly, if you compare the era in which most of us have lived to the previous fifty years (1900-1950), there's little question that we've enjoyed a period of comparative benevolence. The first half of the 20th century witnessed two enormously destructive world wars, the worst economic depression in history, and several brutal genocides. The past sixty years has its own share of tragedies, to be sure, but the overall level of violence was much lower, economic growth was fairly steady (until recently), and many of us never had to endure the insecurities, travesties, and sacrifices that earlier generations experienced or that were still common in other parts of the world.
Most Americans ought to be especially grateful for their extraordinary good fortune, and Thanksgiving is an appropriate time for us to reflect upon it. And as I watch Europe teeter on the brink of financial collapse, observe the violent political contestation that is sweeping the Middle East, note the rapidly shifting balance of power in Asia, and contemplate the tragicomic follies of our so-called leaders in Washington, I do wonder how long it will last, and whether I will look back with regret at the tranquility we have lost.
But tomorrow, I will give thanks for the good that remains, and think about what can still be done to preserve and extend it.
Mark Wilson/Getty Images
EXPLORE:MEDIASPHERE, PERSONAL, THE BLOGOSPHERE, EGYPT, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FOREIGN POLICY MAGAZINE, IRAN, IRAQ, LIBYA, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY 
Being grateful is always better than being resentful. Dr. Walt sets up a good model. I respect this a lot.
"Most Americans ought to be especially grateful for their extraordinary good fortune....." As a Chinese who lived in United States for more than three years, I can't agree more on these words. Having several close American friends who still have touch with me today and always missing the peaceful life in Mid West, I have deep affection with United States, an affection that I never hide even when I argue with you guys on behalf of my motherland.
Dr. Walt's words just appear to me especially meaningful in this harsh winter of American economy. Admittedly, the American economy is very down -- I feel very sorry and please do believe this feeling is genuine. However, you still have so many things to be grateful to. Yes, just think about what is happening around the world, just as Steve listed, you can see that you are still the lucky ones. And -- please, don't be obsessed by those exaggerated sayings about how Chinese have grabbed your jobs. A lot of Chinese people are living in a much lower standard than that in your country, even lower than your poorest ones. But they are satisfied with their jobs, although the pays are low, and they cannot afford losing their jobs. Because, we have too many people here in China and our social security system just cannot afford so many people. Trust me, if this kind of jobs were transferred to America, the costs of the products will become so high that the sales of the products would become a disaster -- even your own people could no longer afford them any more -- at least not any more in a way you used to consume them.
Finally, stimulated by Dr. Walt, I would like to give my thanks. I am thankful to my parents, without whose love I cannot manage my past two years; to my current employer, who has been feeding me for four years; to those who have helped me, no matter if known by me or anonymous, ; to your great country, who broadened my view and I really cannot value this; and finally, to my beloved motherland, who raised me up and makes me proud.
Poll: Ron Paul in firm lead in Iowa..... Be Thankful America
Poll: Ron Paul in firm lead in Iowa
Texas Congressman Ron Paul continues to boast high numbers in public polls despite the lack of media attention that he has received throughout the race for the GOP primary. Just prior to the start of last night's GOP debate, Paul's poll numbers were at their highest since the start of the race.
According to TeleResearch, which performed the survey, Paul leads among his fellow Republicans in Iowa with 25 percent of the vote. The poll is significant as it is the first to incorporate disaffected Democrats and Independents who will not vote to reelect President Obama and instead will cross over to vote in the Iowa Republican caucus, as well as Republican voters.
The Laconia Daily Sun reports that Ron Paul has not only managed to win the support of Democrats, but also from some of the most left-wing Democrats in the party - those who are self-described “progressives.” The New American
A University of Minnesota study confirmed recently that Ron Paul has been given the least amount of time to speak at the debates of all of the candidates. Putting this into perspective, the study found that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has received more than double the amount of time allotted for Ron Paul during the last three debates. University of Minnesota
A study by the Pew Research Center proved that Paul has been blacked out by the mainstream media. The study combined traditional media research methods with computer algorithms to track the level and tone of coverage of presidential candidates, and compiled a list of 52 mainstream news sources, ranging from newspapers to television. The Pew Research Center
In August, CNN admitted that it was inclined to ignore Ron Paul, despite his success, because he is “unelectable.” Politico
FACTS & FIGURES
Ron Paul's foreign policy of nonintervention made him the only 2008 Republican presidential candidate to have voted against the Iraq War Resolution during 2002. U.S. House of Representatives
Ron Paul was one of six Republicans to vote against the Iraq War Resolution and sponsored a resolution to repeal the war authorization during February 2003. U.S. House of Representatives.
especially for helping to open my eyes to the rest of the world and America's role in it. To paraphrase Kant (after he read the English philosopher David Hume), "I feel like I have been awakened from a thousand years' slumber."
There are many great things about your blog. It is almost always insightful, and brings penetrating analysis and both breadth and depth to topics rarely treated adequately by our MSM. It is never full of itself, and I believe you genuinely acknowledge the possibility that you could be wrong. It gives generous credit to others, and it (usually) avoids the bombast so often found in other bloggers these days. This country is extremely fortunate that you are on "our side!" You and others like you are positive role models for the rest of us. (I hope I live sufficiently long to read your autobiography.)
Last, I suggest you once again link to Phil Weiss's Mondoweiss--it is truly excellent.
I am thankful for your blog. And I heard you on NPR the other day and that was a good discussion. You should link to the NPR program in case your readers would like to hear that, and other appearances.
http://www.npr.org/2011/11/21/142601176/can-sanctions-end-irans-nuclear-ambitions
Thanks for the link to that NPR discussion. Both Dr. Walt and the other person interviewed were quite informative and thoughtful. I agree with your suggestion about linking to programs of interest and other appearances--let's get Foreign Policy to do this for all of its bloggers! It would be great to see and hear them in person.
Thanks and take care of yourself!
I say that you should take care of youself because you-- of all bloggers-- are the most needed commentator. Before 2006 and 2007, the lovers of Force&Fraud& Shamelessness had us all by the balls. But since your blog of 2009 or so, I have gone first to you to get clarification and genuine logic and facts--and not only about the Swamp of Zionism, but for international politics in general.
In the email group that I have organized over the years since 2001--of both Americans and Germans---not a single one of these talented men and women have laid a glove on your presentations and argumentations.
The only one who has tried is a distinguished attorney, but his lawyering amounts to zero accomplishment. Of course, you have enormous benefits---: you have the facts and you have the laws, the other side has the power and the media and hysteria plus shamelessness.
And you have been a godsend to Heidelberg and Germany where I live. Germany has a far higher sense of social justice than the USA and the German media is much fairer in general, but both this fairness and this justice is reversed on the issue of Israel. Except for a tiny worthy few in Heidelberg, the city dances quickly and automatically to every Israeli horah or lamentation of its eternal victimhood.
You remain one of the best hopes for decliing USA and the only hope for Heidelberg--except for the great Helmut Schmidt who is on your side and indeed on Germany's side even as he approaches 93 years of age.
You ought to invite yourself to dinner at his modest home in Hamburg. I would not at all be surprised, if he said: Dear Herr Walt, I would love to interview you!
Best,
As a denver criminal law attorney I am thankful for so many things this year, but I am most thankful for the war coming to an end.
Walt crosses fingers for euro not to collapse
Happily this superstition will have no effect whatsoever anyway, even if he doubles down and crosses his toes as well :-).
This is one of the funniest aspects of dealing with Americans, who thinks that their unique Union can be tranferred universally -- to cultures that are very diverse. Also it shows how they are often locked in group think, failing to understand that an euro-collapse is good for freedom and can create new dynamism.
--------------------------
Here is Chief economist at the major Danish bank, Sydbank, Steen Jakobsen. He thinks that an euro-collaps will create optimism:
"It will free a lot of dynamism similar to what you saw following the collapse of the Berlin Wall or after the crisis in Russia or Argentina", Steen Jakobsen says. He adds, that the euro-construction today effectively locks a number of countries tight in an economic straightjacket, which they will get free off, if they get their own currency back.
http://www.b.dk/nationalt/eurokrise-gunstig-for-privatoekonomien
The Euro itself was ever an insidious Pied Piper calling innocent Europeans to slavery. As Marx wrote: “Capitalism compels all nations, on pain of extinction, to adopt the bourgeois mode of production”. And the Euro is a quintessentially capitalist construct. Burn the wretched thing, say I, it will give a lovely light.
Thank the Lord, and pass the pliers
We should all be grateful for that indomitable human resourcefulness, so rarely factored into doomsday prognostications. This morning I read that activists in the Greek city of Veroia have formed teams to visit vulnerable households and reconnect the supplies disconnected by the electricity authority for non-payment of their silly bills. It’s not a difficult thing to do, I’ve done it myself, but it does help if you know what you are doing.
No high marks for imaginative diplomacy by Obama
Yes, no high marks for imaginative diplomacy toward Iran, by Obama administration. And we can hope they have not done great harm. Obama did blunder badly by rejecting the Brazilian-Turkish initiative to resolve nulcear dispute with Iran.
Is Israel lobby preventing resolution of Iranian nuclear issue?
The fact Iran enriches uranium to 20% is used by many of those who want severee sanctions against Iran as "proof" Iran intends to enrich further to weapons-grade (95%). But when Iran recently offered to ceae production of 20% U, there was no response from Obama administration.
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Opportunity knocks but once
Good to see you back, man! I thought you'd been fragged by one of your friends...
Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.
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