Excuse me, prof. Walt; but I just have to ask you to read an extensive article in the N Y Times Magazine, "Will Israel attack Iran?", by Ronen Bergman.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/29/magazine/will-israel-attack-iran.html?_r=1&ref=middleeast

The article is meticulously researched, the author has interviewed key persons in Israel. Mr Bergman's bottom line: "After speaking with many senior Israeli leaders and chiefs of the military and the intelligence, I have come to believe that Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012."

With, or without U.S. consent?

its time to deal with iran. No more BS diplomacy...no more BS sanctions. The chinese and russians have been spitting in obama's wonderful new multilateralist worldview....they are not helping at all. The whole thing is a total farce.

last night, on the partisan pro obama charlie rose show, zbig the jew hater was on...and lo and behold, what does he advocate for iran? Containment. What nonsense...what short term thinking....didnt zbig screw up the middle east badly enough already with iran in 1979? all zbig cares about is taking down israel. If there is collateral damage afterwards, he doesnt care. Allowing iran to acquire nukes will result in a nuclear war at some point down the road, and there is zero doubt about that. ANYONE who cares more about israels destruction and less about global peace is a nutcase. Once iran has nukes, everything changes...hezbollah changes, hamas changes, europe changes, the middle east goes nuclear in every country...global stability, or whatever there is of it now, will forever be shattered. There are no great choices here...but the worst choice is to do nothing and attempt to contain iran...that is just pure fantasy poppycock. Nuclear is not solely an israel problem....its a regional problem, its a global problem. Europeans and americans and africans and south americans and australians will ALL see a horrifying future, shattered economies, death from war, starvation, disease...etc...etc...we will ALL suffer...not just israel. Get your heads out of your anti semitic arses...this is NOT exclusively israels problem. Thats just the canard.

if chavez in america's backyard was threatening to wipe america from the map and was known to be building a nuclear program hardened under mountains and bunkers...what would obama do? come on...he along with just about every american would be advocating the destruction of his program before it became a reality. Its simply amazing how so many don't really care too much when it concerns israel....GEE....i wonder why...you anti semites are the biggest cowards ....its amazing...you all hide behind false excuses rather than coming out and saying, here's what I believe; I don't like jews. Why cant you cowards just say it? man, your anonymous behind a computer and STILL you cant say it. you know who you are...I know who you are...everyone on this site knows who you are...so just say it! if you believe it and you have that strong a conviction, then say it already.

while zbig may not be a jew hater, he certainly has never proven to be even handed or rational in his approach to israel vis a vis american foreign policy...you can call that what you want; I just know that when it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, its usually a duck.

In relative terms, the US is declining because much of the world is growing faster than the US. China's 9.2% GDP growth will beat the US at 2%. If the US continues to try too many projects at once, its relative decline will be much faster. The US must focus on its core interests and other concerns. Some of the other concerns that have become less important, or even counterproductive, may need to be set aside temporarily or discarded completely. For one example, NATO is an area that needs reduction. In another case, the US has an economic competition with China and needs military cooperation for protecting the sea lanes on which both countries depend for trade. Recently, China's navy had three joint naval exercises with Australia, with Vietnam, and with Japan. The US and China have had naval units permanently stationed near Somalia to fight piracy for years, so US-China naval cooperation is not new. Cooperation reduces US naval requirements to allow US focus on economic competition. Examination of US issues allows the US to shift resources from actions that are no longer needed to actions that give more benefits to the US and its trading partners.

One of the reasons for the singularity of US power was because much of the rest of the world was in such bad shape.

30 years ago China and India couldn't even feed their populations effectively nor was their industry worth a bucket of fertilizer. Now we are talking about them being major global players. This is not something to lament. Its something to be proud of.

We are seeing less and less people living in complete squalor. We are seeing growing middle classes in areas previously known for crushing poverty and inequality.

Ultimate nobody in the US wants the nation to be the king of a shitpile of a world. The world becomes safer, saner and less miserable when more people are living at the standards we have always taken for granted.

I feel that many of the other comments here - and even in Walt's own post - misunderstand what Beckley is saying. He's not only saying that China isn't rising relative to the U.S.; he's saying that it's actually declining in that respect (his charts about patents, scientific research, per capita GDP, and arms sales are shocking), which I'm sure blow many observers' minds.

He also cites numerous examples from the 20th century - the supposed "golden age" that Walt and others cite when talking about American hegemony - when the U.S. failed all over the world and was widely believed to have seen its influence "decline" as a result. Actually, he cites Walt himself in the article, when setting up the flimsy "Rising China/Declining America" mainstream view that he then demolishes!

It is a certain truth that the Zionist lobbies currently control American foreign policy. To publicly disagree with them will continue to draw the false flag attack of antisemitism. This will not change anytime soon but it is a big problem not only for America but also for Israel. Why?

Because as long as they control American foreign policy, they are exempt from reality. Which is that the periodic devastation, death by state assassination, the imprisonment of tens of thousands of Palestinians and dispossession of millions more from their homes and homeland, penning the remainder within huge concrete walls, and the Apartheid policies of Israeli state are TEMPORARILY shielded from their ultimate and certain consequences. History marches on, as it always does.

This cannot last. Everyone knows this. In reality, Israel has no better friend than those who maintain (such as the J Street Lobby) that it must be a just and mutually agreed two state solution, a one state solution (unitary, democratic and non-sectarian with one person, one vote) or unending war. An Apartheid Israel is morally abhorrent and politically unsustainable.

A new war against Iran that is in reality no offensive military threat against superpower Israel, for reasons of nuclear WMD which they do not have, and because of Iran's political opposition to Zionism, will bring us all to the clear tipping point. The consequences of such a war would be mass chaos from Lebanon to Pakistan. The Straights of Hormuz being largely shut. How does the thought of oil at say $300 per barrel strike you?

Very suddenly, all the usual ignorant Americans who see Israel as a metaphor, or a biblical prophesy, or as an ally (against whom or for what?) would in a single instant wake up and say, who brought this doom upon us? Who brought us total economic collapse?

Then you would get a repeat of humanity's predilection for scapegoating and vengeance. The Jews again held responsible as a total people for wrongs done by the few but the powerful. In so many ways, this is not a good thing.

eom

Prof. Walt. I hope the policy-makers of this country are listening to you and others who possess a nuanced view of America's place in the current and future world order. The average American is entirely capable of grasping a more subtle, differentiated, and realistic view of international relations. It is only our media and talking heads that presume the level of discourse cannot be raised beyond the 9th grade level among the general public. As one who has worked for years in the public (elementary) schools, I cannot agree more with your take on the current status of public education in this country--I've seen it for myself up close and personally...

"The First Rule of American Decline Is: Don’t Talk About American Decline"
What a stupid title to a very good article. I hope it doesnt dissuade people from reading this as I almost was.

"Whether or not the U.S. is declining is the wrong question" is a much, much better title.

Sometimes the editors of FP can act like real 'busch league' amateurs.

so glad you seem to be stable and rational...a nuke free for all... LOL? and btw, if something breaks out with nukes in the region, its going to affect all of us..you, me, your friends, everyone...world markets will nosedive, the war will expand, and you my friend will be happy because israel is getting hit?

I assume you say you are for peace, right?

well if you are, the most rational thing for that to be achieved is precisely because of muclear imbalance in the region. syop being such a racist fool. If the arabs had nukes and israel didnt, we would all by now be in a very different world...half the middle east would by now be irradiated...dont you see man? the arabs just cant help themselves when it comes to violence...whether its directed at jews, christians, bahaais, coptics. sunni vs shia, kurd vs. iraqi, salafist vs wahabeist, etc...etc....isnt it time we start blaming the ones who actually do all of these heinous things? its like your a bloody child for gods sake...it wasnt me, it wasnt me....

fool

A quote from Michael Beckley's article - deliberately shortened to show the point:

"If proponents of the... “declinist” perspective are correct, then the United States should contain China’s growth ... and subdue China’s ambitions. If, however, the United States is not in decline, ... then the United States should do the opposite: it should contain China’s growth ... and it should subdue China’s ambitions ..."

Anyone who wonders that the US are hated in many parts of the world just needs to read that quote and realize, that virtually nobody objected.

To those who still don't understand the point: mutual friendship in the multipolar world is not on the US agenda.

It boils down to how you define ‘decline’ since there is no scientific method by which its application to a nation can be calculated and tested. The validity or otherwise of the notion depends entirely on what data is selected for comparison, and the largely emotional responses such comparisons evoke. What is true is that something bright and bushy tailed existed in the US in the late 50s and 60s. Despite background events like the Watts riots, the American people themselves and visitors like me felt it, it was tangible; visas were simple to obtain and the US was the place to be, even the arrogance of some officials, Customs at the airport, for instance, made amusing stories. There was conflict, particularly in the field of racial rights, but everything was felt to be moving in a positive direction, and few questioned a gentle US hand on the world’s tiller.

But all appears changed and all sorts of reasons are proposed. It depends where you start. One might take a broad historical view and say that all empires appear to pass through phases of growth and flowering followed by dispersal. That is historically demonstrable, and I have a theory that the timescale of all ‘decline’ is proportionate to the preceding growth, something also true of fashion and fame; here today, gone tomorrow. Within such processes there are events that have a superficially causal look to them but are simply externally observed episodes in what Heraclitus hailed as flux. Decline is an emotional concept and probably also largely generational, do 17 year old college students conceive the US to be in decline? The US in the middle of the last century was a cloud illusion as was the concurrent regime in Russia, they change, they pass into something else and in that respect the US has given mankind many great and likely enduring benefits. Be happy with it.

As for Israel, the Jewish people pass through such phases like all others and it is only their societal cohesion that appears to connect one phase with another in what they tend to see as their ‘history’ but which is not history at all, simply a catalogue of selected events. The main problem with their current phase is that their antique mix of mythopoeia and real politik has no place in the modern world. Despite all effort to sustain an alternative illusion, Israel is something of a thorn in the bosom of the ME, which is bad enough, but the further problem is that the inflammation it causes there is spreading. If Israel does decide to have a go at Iran, I suspect the outcome will be like someone with a dicky heart attempting a marathon.

for asking this question: Has anybody possibly read Ronen Bergman's article in the N Y Times Magazine, "Will Israel attack Iran?",

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/29/magazine/will-israel-attack-iran.html?_r=1&ref=middleeast

eom

I would say that the countries that continue to aid Iran in are actually the most morally corrupt.

Those that purchase its oil and sell it technology and expertise so that their current leadership can act out it's terror and nuclear insanity on the world are to blame

If the leaders of China and Russia were to have a micro gram of decency within them they would see that they are helping create WW3.

Let's hope Syria,followed by Hezbollah,followed by Iran fall and that something other than a regressive/aggressive Islamist leadership comes into power in these countries, otherwise this planet will descend into war.

Might with respect to arms will never be the sustaining element for longevity for any nation. Sensible, that is, that which nurtures reason which promotes health of human relation will. America’s best interest is, what is in the best universal interest of human beings period. We have forgotten the value of belief and trust in Divine Providence....yet those who wrote our Declaration of Independence recognized a Supreme and Final Judgment.....even showing with behavior toward African Americans monumental insensitivity...they were still able to realize that a Nation of Superior might oppressing it’s people that justice would prevail against the doers of injustice. We need to reread that document we as a nation have become those who we fought against.

Several of the comments above are written in a seeming assumption that the US is doing the right thing by wishing to stop Iran's march to nuclear weapons even if the US either actually assisted or looked the other when two other countries - Israel and Pakistan - were moving towards nuclear weapons. It is reasonably certain that the US would have known about Israel's and Pakistan's quest for nuclear weapons. Israel has not even declared its nuclear weapons, while Pakistan has made no secret of its. So, Israel has had no occasion to indulge in proliferation. On the other hand, Pakistan has been blatantly guilty of proliferation and clandestine activity about which a great deal has been written in US media. The US never thought that Israel's or Pakistan's achievement of nuclear weapons was a first rate tragedy, but the US has now resolved that Iran's access to nuclear weapon power status shall be an unmitigated disaster, one which the US will do everything to prevent. The president even assured the world that no option was off the table, that is, military action against Iran was possible.
Now, if things do actually reach a pass where actual military action against Iran is taken by the US or by a coalition that will doubtless include the US, then the world shall be left in no doubt that the US was not ashamed of its double standards. The US has been at war for almost 10 years already in Afghanistan, with a side show in Iraq thrown in for good measure, with the result that US economy has shown unmistakable signs of financial strain that invariably follows prolonged war. Besides, although Mr Obama has been at pains to assure Islamic countries that the US was not at war with Islam as such, he is not at all reluctant to involve the US in war with a third Islamic country, Iran. It happens that Iran is Persian and Shia and therefore not quite in the mainstream of Islamic civilizational history and growth, but it remains a significant Islamic country. Even if countries like Israel and Saudi Arabia may be delighted if the US takes military action against Iran, the US and Mr Obama should be in no doubt that they will have given the world no cause for approbation if military action against Iran is eventually taken.
As it is, the US-led intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq has shown the limits of Western power: they can bring about the end of a regime but they do not know what to put in its place. Iraq is definitely without a proper government, and Afghanistan is nowhere near a legitimate government. Perhaps the regime of the ayatollahs in Iran may be brought to an end, but Western powers shall not know how to organize an alternative power structure in that country. Nobody has seen signs of an Iranian spring.
The US, which till the other day was regarded as the richest and the most powerful country in human history, is certainly still far ahead of any other country or group of countries, but it should be nobody's case that by worsting Iran the US will have proved its claim to being the leader of the world. Lots of countries around the world shall probably keep quiet when they see Iran being subjected to complete discomfiture at the hands of the US, but nobody is going to be filled with admiration or gratitude for the US. Quite to the contrary, several countries around the world shall think of the US as an irresponsible power and as an arrogant power.
V. C. Bhutani, Delhi, India, 29 Jan 2012, 1815 IST

The story below, from the loathsome haaretz, is a perfect example of why most israelis and normal conservatives, not limousine liberals, don't trust obama. The idea was that both the israelis and palestinans were supposed to create certain conditions that would lead to the trust needed to proceed with the peace process... i.e. - the israelis had to remove checkpoints, improve security arrangements with the palestinians, help improve their economy, ease the blockade on gaza and for a time, freeze west bank building, all of which the israelis by and large have done. The palestinians were supposed to stop anti semitic incitement in their media and curriculum..which by and large they haven't done. Curiously, Obama seems to only scold israel for building apartments in east jerusalem, and yet says NOTHING when it comes to palestinian transgressions like in the link below. I don't hear obama saying its an outrage, I don't hear the baroness catherine ashton saying its an outrage, I don't hear the quartet and I dont hear the various human rights bodies saying anything. Is it any wonder israelis who are pro obama roughly make up only 4-8% of israelis? The real question is why do american jews overwhelmingly support this anti israeli buffoon? Israelis are many things, but fools they are not. They don't want to hear statements from victoria nuland or susan rice, they want to hear Obama speak up clearly when these kinds of things keep happening over and over and over....and people wonder why israelis and many others think this whole peace process is a sham? Vote this charlatan out in 2012.

Palestinian TV airs show praising Fogel family murderer
In weekly show dedicated to Palestinian prisoners in Israel, Hakim Awad's mother and aunt describe convicted perpetrator of Itamar attack as a 'hero and legend.'

"Palestinian television aired an interview with the relatives of the Fogel family murderers earlier this month, praising the two cousins convicted with the brutal attack as "heroes."

The broadcast was aired as part of a weekly show on the Palestinian state-run station called "For You," which focuses on Palestinian prisoners incarcerated in Israel.

Amjad Awad and Hakim Awad, with the crime scene in the background.

The show featured the aunt and mother of Hakim Awad, who along with his cousin Amjad was convicted of brutally stabbing to death five Fogel family members in an attack on their home in the West Bank settlement of Itamar on the night of March 11, 2011.

Hakim Awad's mother sent her regards to her son, proudly describing him as the perpetrator of the Itamar attack and that he was sentenced to 5 consecutive life sentences.

Awad's aunt then proceeded to describe her nephew as a "hero and a legend."

The unusual broadcast was reported by the Israel-based media watchdog organization Palestinian Media Watch

Late last year Amjad Awad was convicted of the murdering Ehud and Ruth Fogel, along with three of their young child-ren, Yoav, 11, Elad, 4, and Hadas, 3 months old, before fleeing the scene. His cousin Hakim was convicted a month earlier. Both men were sentenced to five consecutive life sentences by an IDF court"

This article does say anything new.

Dear Professor Walt is simply repeating the thesis of Paul Kennedy's "Rise and Fall of Great Powers" which came out in the 80's. (nothing new)

There is no way to contain China, nor do I think we want to given that our economic interests are so well aligned. Yes, it would be great for all of those manufacturing jobs to come back, but any economist will tell you that that ain't happening. It is not to say that new high tech manufacturing, may make sense to do in the US, but this remains to be seen. The US might be able to increase the amount manufacturing it does on its shores, but it would be done by robots. Also China has been very helpful in that they have been absorbing a lot of the inflation we would have experience if we did not manufacturing here.

Regarding Iran, it sounds like there are two camps: 1) Don't bomb them and let them have the bomb and 2) Bomb them and keep bombing them.
I would propose a third alternative view, but before I do that I have to dispose of the first two camps. Letting Iran have nuclear weapons is a huge risk. They would use this increased stature to dominate the Opec and the gulf states, which would hurt the industrialized world with higher oil prices. There is also a very real proliferation risk where Iran could provide this technology to Hezbollah and other groups who could make a terrorist nuke. On the other hand bombing them won't dismantle their program since much of it is underground in bomb-proof bunkers in the Zagros mountains. They learned the lesson Iraq did when Israel bombed their nuclear facilities.

The third way is to economically cripple them to the point that there is a power shift in Iran away from 'the crazies' to someone like Rafsanjani who we can make a deal with. I don't see a Persian Spring for a lot of reasons.
How do we economically cripple Iran beyond sanctions?
1) Mass Counterfeiting: By infiltrating huge amounts of currency into the Iranian economy, the result will be hyperinflation which will turn the populace against the govt.
2) Sabotage Tankers: Iran has 14 oil tankers that come and go from the Kharg Island oil terminal. US navy SEAL teams could easily disable these vessels which would further put a strain on Iran's financial reserves.
3) Fund Insurgents: Iran has many significant minority populations (Azeris 16%, Kurds 7%, Lurs 6%, Arabs 2%, Baloch 2%). These populations want more autonomy and funding their activities will put more strain on the govt.(See Jundallah - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jundallah)

The hope is that once the Iranian govt realizes they need to play ball the better their lives will be.

they are exempt from reality. Which is that the periodic devastation, death by state assassination, the imprisonment of tens of thousands of Palestinians and dispossession of millions more from their homes and homeland, penning the remainder within huge concrete walls, and the Apartheid policies of Israeli state bwin bonus are temporarily shielded from their ultimate and certain consequences. History marches on, as it always does.Lots of countries around the world shall probably keep quiet when they see Iran being subjected to complete discomfiture at the hands of the US, but nobody is going to be filled with admiration or gratitude for the US. Quite to the contrary, several countries around the world shall think of the US as an bwin irresponsible power and as an arrogant power.NATO is an area that needs reduction. In another case, the US has an economic competition with China and needs military cooperation for protecting the sea lanes on which both countries depend for trade. Recently, China's navy had three joint naval exercises with Australia, with Vietnam, and with Japan.

Iran would like some respect, wants to be a player on the world stage but doesn't know how to make google reklam it happen. The country can be compared to a gawky kid with a testosterone surge who talks big but knows he can't deliver. He is angry and feels misunderstood. No respect. He could be dangerous if he had access to a weapon, but only if all the Big Guys around google reklam him keep threatening him - and if they push him too far.