Posted By Stephen M. Walt Share

If you are someone who is inclined to favor hawkish responses to foreign policy problems, then your choice for president should be Barack Obama. Not because Obama is especially hawkish himself, or interested in prolonging costly and failed commitments in Iraq or Afghanistan. For that matter, his administration is making a modest and fiscally necessary effort to slow the steady rise in Pentagon spending, and they seem to understand that war with Iran is a Very Bad Idea. (It is of course no accident that military action there is being promoted by the same folks who thought invading Iraq was a Very Good Idea. But I digress.)

So why should hawks vote for Obama? As Glenn Greenwald and Greg Sargent have argued most forcefully, it's because Obama can do hawkish things as a Democrat that a Republican could not (or at least not without facing lots of trouble on the home front). It's the flipside of the old "Nixon Goes to China" meme: Obama can do hawkish things without facing (much) criticism from the left, because he still retains their sympathy and because liberals and non-interventionists don't have a credible alternative (sorry, Ron Paul supporters). If someone like John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich or George W. Bush had spent the past few years escalating drone attacks, sending Special Forces into other countries to kill people without the local government's permission, prosecuting alleged leakers with great enthusiasm, and ratcheting up sanctions against Iran, without providing much information about exactly why and how we were doing all this, I suspect a lot of Democrats would have raised a stink about some of it. But not when it is the nice Mr. Obama that is doing these things.

The key to making this work, as Andrew Bacevich suggests here, is to insulate the vast majority of the American population from the effects of this effort. Obama understands that there's no stomach for big, costly, and inconclusive wars like Iraq and Afghanistan (he's right, and there's also little to be gained from them). But he and his advisors are betting that the American people will tolerate active efforts to hunt down and kill perceived bad guys, provided that the costs are low and occur far away and mostly out-of-sight. And it is in this context that one has to view recent proposals to give U.S. Special Forces greater presence, autonomy, and capability, an idea that remains controversial within military circles.

In other words, we are engaged in a grand strategic experiment: can the United States make itself more secure by dispatching troops and drones to various corners of the world, with the explicit mission of killing anyone we think might be a "terrorist?" At first glance, this approach certainly looks better than the debacle in Iraq, and it consistent with the "laser-like focus on Al Qaeda" that some of us recommended way back in 2001. But it is not without its own dangers, of which the following strike me as especially paramount.

The first danger lies in the secrecy with which these activities are now shrouded. We don't really know who is being targeted for attack, or what the error rates are. Is it really true that U.S. forces have targeted not just suspected terrorist but also the people who seek to provide medical or rescue assistance after an attack, on the assumption that the rescuers are in cahoots with original targets? How often do we make honest mistakes? How reliable is the information on which targeting is being conducted?

The second danger -- "blowback" -- follows from the first. What if we end up creating more new terrorists than we kill? What if aggressive efforts to hunt down Al Qaeda in Pakistan ends up destabilizing the nuclear-armed Pakistani state and convinces lots of people there that the United States is inherently hostile? Are we going to understand that such hostility didn't emerge solely because these people "hate our values," but rather because a cousin, brother, or fellow countrymen was targeted by an American drone, and maybe in error? The less we know about what U.S. forces are doing, the harder it will be for us to understand why some people don't like us that much.

A third danger is imitation. There is every reason to assume that other states, as well as some non-state actors, will decide to follow us down this particular path. The United States used to say that it opposed "targeted assassinations," but now we we are legimitizing this practice and others are bound to get into the act too. Similarly, by paying less and less attention to the old norm of sovereignty, we are making it more difficult to object when other states start interfering in each other's internal affairs. If we can send drones and/or special forces into any country we choose, why can't other states violate national borders in order to advance some policy objective of their own? What are we going to say then?

Fourth, is this a temporary expedient or a slippery slope? A case can be made that Obama's approach is a smart response to the dangers posed by Al Qaeda and its progeny, and that his policies reflect a temporary necessity. In this view, groups like Al Qaeda arose in a particular historical and political context, and they are gradually being attrited by an increasingly precise and effective strategy. If you believe this, then you might also believe that eventually the war on terror will be won, and that eventually we will be able to ratchet back these activities, shut down Guantanamo, rescind the Patriot Act, get rid of those demeaning scanners at airports, and cut back or quit those drone strikes. One could even argue that what we are really seeing is a last flurry of activity as we exit Iraq, prepare to exit Afghanistan, and start pivoting toward East Asia.

I'd like to believe that, but as Bacevich suggests, it is at least as likely that we have entered a new phase in American strategy from which it may be difficult to extricate ourselves. The problem is that we have these new capabilities (i.e., drones), and Obama and Bush have established the precedent of a "don't ask, don't tell" approach to warfare that keeps most of what we are doing in the dark. My fear is that future presidents are going to find those capabilities and that precedent very hard to resist. When hammers (drones?) are cheap, it's tempting to buy a lot of them and you'll tend to see a world full of nails. Drug lords in Mexico causing trouble? Let's just take 'em out. Tired of Hugo Chavez and his shenanigans? We've got an app for that. Sickened by the carnage in Syria? Let's give Assad and his underlings the same treatment we gave Ghaddafi. And so on. But most actions generate unintended consequences, and I suspect that trying to be the global policeman -- or in the minds of some, the global vigilante -- on the cheap may be a decision we'll eventually regret.

Harry How/Getty Images

 

DIANA RELKE

12:14 AM ET

February 15, 2012

Hmmm .....

is this alternative to turning Iran into another Iraq supposed to make Americans feel good about Democrat hawkishness? Whoever said that an empire is at its most dangerous when it's in decline was dead right. Gawd help us all.

 

MARTIAL

2:07 AM ET

February 15, 2012

Very odd assessment

Mr Obama removed us from Iraq and is removing us from Afghanistan. Should action be deemed needed on Iran, there will be good reason for it. Hopefully, nothing will occur. perhaps someone other than the US will do something. Europe did matters in Libya. They will likely do what is needed. We cannot afford this.

 

BOB ALONG

12:24 PM ET

February 17, 2012

Touching Naivete

"Should action be deemed neede on Iran there will be good reason for it." Absolutely true, but that reason will have nothing whatever to do with the national interests of the US, nor will it have been subjected to any cost-benefit analysis that included even a passing reference to ethics. The days when such faith in our government was in any way justifiable are long gone. Assuming that this comment is not just a paraphrase of a White House press release, if at all representative of popular opinion in the US, it is alarming indeed!

 

BOB ALONG

12:25 PM ET

February 17, 2012

Touching Naivete

"Should action be deemed neede on Iran there will be good reason for it." Absolutely true, but that reason will have nothing whatever to do with the national interests of the US, nor will it have been subjected to any cost-benefit analysis that included even a passing reference to ethics. The days when such faith in our government was in any way justifiable are long gone. Assuming that this comment is not just a paraphrase of a White House press release, if at all representative of popular opinion in the US, it is alarming indeed!

 

BOB ALONG

12:26 PM ET

February 17, 2012

Touching Naivete

"Should action be deemed needed on Iran there will be good reason for it." Absolutely true, but that reason will have nothing whatever to do with the national interests of the US, nor will it have been subjected to any cost-benefit analysis that included even a passing reference to ethics. The days when such faith in our government was in any way justifiable are long gone. Assuming that this comment is not just a paraphrase of a White House press release, if at all representative of popular opinion in the US, it is alarming indeed!

 

DR. KUCHBHI

3:02 AM ET

February 15, 2012

And the alternative to killing bad guys or their help, is what?

Let's see....

Put them up in Guantanamo and prosecute them? I think we can agree that, that is a fool's pursuit.
How about telling Pakistan to round them up and deliver justice? Yeah, that's a good one!!!

Yes, there NO OTHER WAY - given that we're not willing to deliver a credible threat to Pakistan to stop using the bad guys as proxies.

In terms of the price we will pay by pissing innocents off, its NO BIG DEAL!

Over the last 50 years, we have gone out of our way to offend people of EVERY nationality out there - from Argentinians (for supporting the Brits in the Falklands) to North Vietnamese (of whom we killed millions), not to mention Iraqis in more recent times or Liberians and Latin Americans through our sponsored coups.

NOBODY has attacked the US of A. To suggest that we should only kill the bad guys when we have created a 200 yard cordon around them that is free of all living organisms is tantamount to say that we do absolutely nothing.

 

MARTIAL

5:56 AM ET

February 15, 2012

Korea is the alternative.

You cannot solve domestic issues with foreign force. Congo is a negative example. North Korea is a positive example. All we can do (we KNOW this) is keep the crazy family from doing things to other countries. The people suffer awfully. But there simply is nothing that works by invasion. That's what realism means.

 

NICOLAS19

9:52 AM ET

February 15, 2012

and what is the downside of doing nothing?

Currently there are 193 countries in the world. How come that there is only one of them, the US, is touring the world looking for bad guys? How come that 6,7 billion people in the world are getting along fine within their respective borders, only 300 million are so effing scared that they need the military the size of a mammoth to root out every possible threat. Why? Because the horrid army of around fifty people got lucky in 2001, sending an entire nation to shit green.

 

GBNT73

8:44 PM ET

February 15, 2012

Nicholas19: you are grossly mis-informed

N19: you are incorrect in about every sentence you've written in this entry. Perhaps you should read more from our current Allies' online media about their counter-terrorism activities.

 

NICOLAS19

1:49 PM ET

February 17, 2012

nonsense

Covert counter-terrorism/intelligence activities have always been and will be conducted. Military aircraft/land forces operations in third party countries, as well as aggressive warfare is NOT counter-terrorism. Get your facts straight before you pollute this blog.

 

GRANT

3:37 AM ET

February 15, 2012

I seriously doubt the U.S

I seriously doubt the U.S would take the step of targeting heads of states. Qaddafi was the exception, not the rule. If we were, we would have gotten rid of inconvenient people like Mugabe years ago. The increased use on terrorists, warlords and drug lords is possible I'll grant.

 

MARTIAL

5:51 AM ET

February 15, 2012

Who toppled Qaddafi?

It was Europe. Think it was a bad, bad idea too. Right now, anarchy exists. Out from anarchy will likely arise an even worse character. At least, however, it was not the US that toppled him. All we did was to give some support. That's all we should do.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

3:11 PM ET

February 15, 2012

the CIA

The CIA was leading the Rebels long before this was on our radar. I appreciate the US not apparently leading the attack on Libya, but we had a far greater hand in those matters than your narrative allows. Again, I'm not jealous, I want us to seem to be just part of a larger coalition. But, I also think much of these covert shenanigans are impetuous, and sets a precedent that won't serve us well. We need to be, and claim to be good law abiding boy scouts. (I'm an old dirty Rugby player, and know the value of taking advantage from time to time, but you really need to keep your powder dry, and pick your battles carefully. And, when it comes to retaliation, you have to bide your time, eventually you'll find yourself standing over that guy laying prone on the ground (as he will you) this is your chance to impart justice. Be fair, do what you need, and move on.) Sadly, our policy has degenerated into a nasty rugby team. When we cast aside the rules, it's hard to appeal to them later.

Back to Rugby, it's funny, we had some rivals we hated, and games often got really nasty, and other rivals, who were just as competitive, but were fun-spirited. We'd hit as hard in both cases, but in one, you're pulling hair, punching, twisting finger, joints, ears, genitals, whatever. In the other, you might say "ow," pinch his ass, kiss him on the cheek, as these were as likely to throw him off as anything. THere's only one ref in rugby, so much of the tenor is up to the players. Foreign affairs, and interpersonal affairs are no different. Our dirty play only legitimizes dirty responses. And ultimately, we have far more to lose than they do. No streetwise man would announce that he is the biggest swinging dick in a bar night after night. Cause even it if were true, one night that dick ain't gonna walk home.

Empires are doomed to fail, they're stupid fantasies sought by too many politicians left and right. Ron Paul IS right. His policy IS right. That doesn't mean you don't reserve for yourself the opportunity to take underhanded advantage, but that can NEVER be your stated policy. It's not as effective if you announce it. But, sometimes you find that taking your cheap shot results in your getting mired in full fledged brawl. And, that's never good for the team that is more adept and powerful.

 

GBNT73

8:46 PM ET

February 15, 2012

Right on, Amos

SCOTTINDALLAS: you really stepped on yourself and ought not profer too many opinions here. You do not know what you are talking about.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

3:40 PM ET

February 16, 2012

You're the one bringing up the NAZIs

I simply said that "following orders" was not a sufficient defense under Nuremberg. And, as to Bernard Lewis, many Jews named Lowenstein opted for Lewis. There is likely no "Lewis" in Hebrew, or Lewis works better in English. Just as my forbears dropped the "O" before my name to perhaps hide their Irish heritage. To take great offense at pointing out that Jews may well have an attenuated perspective on the Middle East conflict and their Arab neighbors is hyper sensitive. Just as you might well find a trend in those of Irish heritage being less supportive of Empire than other Anglos.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

3:48 PM ET

February 16, 2012

"I am not sure why people

"I am not sure why people should take you as credible."

Well, this would matter if you're one who dwells in fallacy and is a sophist. But, the fact is that arguments matter, and their logic, the soundness of the argument, the veracity of the facts. It's fallacious to even consider the person making the argument when the facts aren't in doubt. But, with Bernard Lewis, with so many of the Neo-cons, they argue against the facts, they counter the record--like that Iran has no nuclear weapons program, and that attacking them, will destroy the NPT which has legally restrained them and provided constant surveillance on their program. You appeal to "secret facts" where-in you appeal to special evidence. You make the fallacious appeal to authority--BB knows, God tells us, It was decreed by god... I don't trust people and suit and friendly people, they want you to trust them. I'll trust a man, but not for no good reason, and if he's buttering me up, I'm smart enough to know he's got something up his sleeve. Credibility. screw credibility, rebut my argument, address the facts. Stop your non-sense, you name calling, stop your snivelling.

 

MARTIAL

1:27 AM ET

February 17, 2012

A small point Scot in Dallas

Covert activity, such as the training of rebellious persons by the CIA, differs from direct military involvement. The former is a near universal tool of powerful governments; the latter is the "real" use of force. The distinction appears artificial, but is very real. The secretive nature of intrigue renders it nearly impossible to be used as a reason for reprisal. Iran very likely supplied all manner of weapons that wound up killing American soldiers in Iraq, but no definite proof could be obtained. If you read On Negotiating with Princes, you will find Cardinal Richelieu covertly involved in a wide array of revolutions & wars. No one attacked France because of this.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

2:29 PM ET

February 17, 2012

those dubious IRanian arms

Any metallic parabola is not "supplying arms" The arms of those we were fighting in Iraq were all small arms. They never had any weapons of note. In fact, most of those arms are German, and the vast majority of weapons were either introduced by the US in friendlier times, or were not secured by US troops after the invasion. There were zero missiles in Iraq like Iran is accused of giving Hezbollah.

 

THE SWEDE

7:56 AM ET

February 15, 2012

Are you kidding me!

"If You Like Killing People, Vote for Obama"
Really Walt, REALLY!?

Brainfart*bad day at the office =this headline

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

3:14 PM ET

February 15, 2012

what

Are you in denial that Obama has actually increased our foreign wars and engagements? Read the very good list Nicolas provided above. Obama at least puts a better face on empire than Bush. But, the problem with empire is that no amount of beautifying can improve empire.

 

MARTIAL

1:39 AM ET

February 17, 2012

How can you say Pres. Obama INCREASED US involvement?

What is your basis for saying this? Also, you appear to have a skewed view of the planet. An antidote is to read Wikileaks, where you will find a much more complex & realistic picture of matters. Israel is not at the center of much of anything because it is so small. Iran is more of a concern because it is a much larger country, but it too is not at the center of much. The real world is vast, with many intertwined relationships. Once this is realized, the analysis of international affairs becomes quite enjoyable & interesting.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

2:32 PM ET

February 17, 2012

Obama increases war

Read Glenn Greenwald. O doubled our forces in Afghanistan, he tried to keep us in Iraq--Bush's withdrawl schedule was what ultimately got us out of there. Libya, Yemen, Somalia, were all accelerated under O. I know my position isn't common, but it is based on consistent, objective observation, not blind party loyalties.

 

FAIR AND BALANCED FREDRICO

8:10 AM ET

February 15, 2012

Cheney/Bush - The Truth is Out

During 9/11 Boy George was reading "My Pet Goat" to children, while Dead-Man-Walking Cheney was was at the scene of the crime (in the White House bunker) conducting scheduled, simulated war-games to fool NORAD and the FAA into standing down. Isn't it time we put these guys on trial for treason and mass murder?

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

3:16 PM ET

February 15, 2012

Good idea

And let's be sure to try Obama and Holder for abetting their crimes. Let's add Congress to the mix and the rest of the Justice dept and the CIA. I'm not saying they're all guilty, but a good evaluation under a grand jury couldn't hurt.

 

MORROWROSANNA78519476@YAHOO.COM

12:32 PM ET

February 15, 2012

adv

my buddy's half-sister makes $85 every hour on the computer. She has been out of work for 5 months but last month her income was $7314 just working on the computer for a few hours. Read more on this web site... makecash16.com

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

2:45 PM ET

February 15, 2012

most obviously, and yet

most obviously, and yet unstated is that it's hard to appeal to "democracy and rights" when we are attacking/assassinating the elected leaders of other states. Our war on terror is destroying this country's greatest asset, that is that many countries/people envied and respected us. This is turning to enmity and that is dangerous. Rather than unconsciously inflating our value they will begin to see our wrinkles. And, increasingly American exceptionalism means we'll do what we want and others can "suck it." Well, the problem is that people are better students than we assume, and they too will adopt this position.

Kagan is wrong in his assessment of the world with the US as king. When we had the goodwill of the world, American dominance was a good thing. However, today we've become more like England in the first half of the last century, and defending our slipping empire. This is what caused those world wars, not multipolarity, it was more like some damaged Tennessee Williams character twisting all societal convention to keep up airs. Considering how furtive our actions are, this too is more like some tragically flawed fading flower jealously guarding a last few petals. Well, increasingly, the lunch is naked, and the 3rd world isn't so enamored with us, they're courting other suitors, and finding intriguing offers. If we get overly offended and threatened, that too will embarrass ourselves.

 

BANOOR

2:56 PM ET

February 15, 2012

What about the effect on domestic US affairs

Mr. Walt,

When secret unlawful actions overseas become a norm, the same things will inevitably creep into and become the norm in the US, as has already happened with detention and killing (assassination) of US citizens without due process . Using drones for policing purposes is also under consideration.

If these overseas actions continue, as they will, you can kiss your constitution good bye.

 

YANKEE

3:30 PM ET

February 15, 2012

Do you like killing people???

To imply that military people enjoy killing other people is disgusting. War was brought to us on 9/11 and some of us in this country are not the cowardly type. COWARDS do not respond when shot at. This author is a disgusting, sleeze ball COWARD.

This article could have been written by a 13 yr. old girl...very shallow argumets that prove COWARDS are always immature little kids, unable to reasonably defend themselves.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

2:34 PM ET

February 17, 2012

you were never

in the military obviously. There are certainly people who make their living killing others, many of them have lost, or hardened themselves to come to enjoy it.

 

MKCOBRA65

5:23 PM ET

February 15, 2012

Idiot

author

 

KUNINO

6:23 PM ET

February 15, 2012

This is a shallow piece

This piece seems based on the idea that because the leading GOP candidates ain't speaking about what they might do in the way of sending US forces out in harm's way, that they're unlikely to do anything like that if they become president of the United States. This is a naive view and there seems no basis in fact for it.

Let's not forget compassionate conservative candidate George Bush, the guy who wanted no foreign entanglements, who sent American forces into Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen and sundry other places we're little informed about.

Pointing out this obvious disparity between what a Republican candidate says to get votes, and can do later when in office. is no defense of Mr Obama. Having heard his national director of intelligence say that American belligerence and threats are driving Iran crazy, the current president has, as Mr Walt points out, threatened Iran once more in his State of the Union address.

Why do things that drive Iran (or any other nation) crazy? I don't see the sense to it.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

3:53 PM ET

February 16, 2012

kunino

At least when a Republican is in office the Sierra Club, Greenpeace, Amnesty International, Code Pink and other liberal groups work, and speak out and raise awareness. With O in office support for Gitmo, Drones and covert ops has increased. He's normalizing all of these things.

 

MARTY24

8:33 PM ET

February 15, 2012

Getting it right

On US Foreign Policy:

Most of the posters appear to be too young to understand that there was a time when Western civilization respected itself and was ready to bear the cost of preserving that civilization. We either believe that our values are good, and deserving of protection, or not, and thus have no basis for standing against assaults on those values.

The root problem here appears to be the multicultural ideal, that all value systems are basically inherently equal. This ideal, unfortunately, holds within it a logical flaw: Any culture that does not accept the multicultural ideal, CANNOT be equal to one that does, and the one that doesn't is more likely to be willing to pay the cost of spreading its ideals than the multiculturalists. The result is that multiculturalism is self-defeating, and unless we wish to see our culture replaced by one that is willing to engage in aggression, we have no choice but to defend our values.

Walt comes from a tradition that holds that value systems are basically irrelevant, the negative face of multiculturalism, and thus even where he can acknowledge that other cultures might have less desirable values than our own, he cannot bring himself to admit that we'll need to defend our values. By doing so, he guarantees that his intellectual tradition will bring about its own demise.

On Obama and his presidency

Obama's 2008 campaign was based on the notion that he could win by not telling the voters what he stood for. The phenomenon that Walt describes in this article is simply the foreign policy counterpart, that he will prevail internationally by not telling anyone what he is up to.

That is bad enough, but it is being done for some seriously bad reasons. In 2008, Obama managed to give many people the impression that he was a Leftist. While he does share certain ideas with the Left, Obama is far more interested in holding power than he is in any particular outcome, that is why he campaigned for the health care bill before bothering to write one.

He has also shown himself to be unconcerned with the legal limitations on his power. Walt addresses his willingness to subvert international norms in a way the hated George W. Bush would not have considered. "Told you so" isn't nearly enough to exonerate those of us who knew that Obama would be far worse in this regard than Bush. Indeed, Obama's few successes have been when he was forced to retain Bush era policies that he had campaigned against.

The UN Nexus and the Islamist-First Presidency

There was also a time when the UN generally embodied Western ideals about the peaceful settlement of disputes and the equality of states. Efforts by the OIC (which should be known as the Organization for Islamist Coercion) have made the UN into a weapon for use against those who resist Islamist aggression. Since resort to the UN is no longer available, each state has been forced to see to its own defense, even when that defies the demands of the OIC-controlled UN.

Exposing Hypocrites' long list of submissions to Islamism made by Obama is both evidence of the OIC's power in the world and reason for the US to recognize that it must defend its values. With Obama, who is an Islamist-Firster, we won't do that.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

3:58 PM ET

February 16, 2012

Obama's concessions

THey are all simply flattery. It goes back to your earlier charge, he only does things for appearances, and doesn't care about the details. The list you refer to is rent with problems and held against an absurd standard--Geo. Bush. Your post starts each section by creating a strawman and then drifts off into obfuscation. You do a great job of failing to make and intelligible point while smears shit about.

 

HURRICANEWARNING

10:06 PM ET

February 15, 2012

Professor Walt:

You wrote: "If we can send drones and/or special forces into any country we choose, why can't other states violate national borders in order to advance some policy objective of their own?"
I can't help but think that you haven't thought this statement through. First off: Nearly every powerful country in the world plays covert games, and surreptitiously sends in spies, Special Operations Forces, or Submarines ...whatever, into other nations' sovereign land. It has happened since the beginning of time, and I would argue, that it is only happening "more" these days because, frankly, the Media has become so hard to fool. We are constantly being bombarded with leaks, and news about covert operations that 20 years ago we would have heard nothing about. So although it SEEMS like we are getting more secretive, in reality, we are probably getting less secretive. Ask anyone in the intel community. Or Wikileaks. Or Anonymous.
Secondly: We are not sending Special Forces and Drones into "any country we choose". Generally, as is the case in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, Kenya etc. we obtain permission from the government (who then acts publicly like they've never heard of us). And although we do take things into our own hands at times, a la Pakistan; this is only because they play both sides and can't be trusted to protect our secrets and actually go through with measures that are aimed at protecting Americans.
I agree with much of what you wrote regarding Blowback, and possible sticky situations in the future. I just thought that the above statement lacked substance.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

4:19 PM ET

February 16, 2012

I think you misunderstand

What special ops are, they are NOT overt, but covert missions. They are designed to stay under the radar. Spies never do the most obvious damage they possibly could. They rather must be leeches, drawing small steady flows of information, or what have you. Presumably a spy could whip out an automatic weapon and kill bunches of important people, but his access, his covertness is more valuable. The media aren't the ones who are hard to fool, it's the people. When spies are dropping bombs, it's kinda hard to disguise their activities. Duh. This of course HASN'T happened since the beginning of time. It's absurd, spies might blow up bridges, but they'd use sabotage, not flagrant acts that are clear for all to see.

Rumor has always run faster than the wind can blow. Stories have quickly drifted back from the front lines since the days of Homer. No doubt that media are changing and revolutionizing that transfer. But, it's amazing how few people really even follow the news. In many ways were more isolated and ignorant than ever. It's possible to go days without really interacting with anyone beyond perfunctory conversation for weeks today. That almost certainly wasn't the case before. We are able to get into more high flown conversations much more easily perhaps today, but we are just a bunch of dorks who aren't really influencing those who follow MIA, Foo Fighters, Gamers, Sports fans, American Idol and whatever.

To say, "we obtain permission from the gov't" to fly drones so ignores the dynamics of these countries. Lets review, Pakistan is a US weighted military situation very much like Egypt, Afghanistan, our boy, corrupt as he is, is our chosen puppet. Do you really think these men can tell the US no? If your Bookie wants to come in and piss in the ficus, you're gonna let him. Yemen is another US supported dictatorship, Somalia is a gov't that we recently installed, and Kenya really can't tell us "no" either. To suggest that they could is ridiculous, and the illegitimate (in our democratic eyes) hold these countries have with their people can't allow us to be so cavalier with that license.

 

HURRICANEWARNING

10:08 PM ET

February 15, 2012

Easier to read version....with paragraphs this time.

You wrote: "If we can send drones and/or special forces into any country we choose, why can't other states violate national borders in order to advance some policy objective of their own?"

I can't help but think that you haven't thought this statement through.

First off:

Nearly every powerful country in the world plays covert games, and surreptitiously sends in spies, Special Operations Forces, or Submarines ...whatever, into other nations' sovereign land. It has happened since the beginning of time, and I would argue, that it is only happening "more" these days because, frankly, the Media has become so hard to fool. We are constantly being bombarded with leaks, and news about covert operations that 20 years ago we would have heard nothing about. So although it SEEMS like we are getting more secretive, in reality, we are probably getting less secretive. Ask anyone in the intel community. Or Wikileaks. Or Anonymous.

Secondly:

We are not sending Special Forces and Drones into "any country we choose". Generally, as is the case in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, Kenya etc. we obtain permission from the government (who then acts publicly like they've never heard of us). And although we do take things into our own hands at times, a la Pakistan; this is only because they play both sides and can't be trusted to protect our secrets and actually go through with measures that are aimed at protecting Americans.

I agree with much of what you wrote regarding Blowback, and possible sticky situations in the future. I just thought that the above statement lacked substance.

 

COLIN ROSS

11:30 PM ET

February 15, 2012

Mexico

As Dana Priest and William Arkin reported in their book Top Secret America, there have already been discussions in Washington with JSOC officers about expanding the targeted kill operations into Mexico as a nice short-cut instead of helping improve that country's criminal justice system.
Thankfully, it doesn't seem to have proceeded further as of yet.

 

VINEYCB1

12:58 AM ET

February 16, 2012

The coming war with Iran

With much of what you have written I agree. But I am afraid there is an underlying approval – sort of – where the coming war with Iran is concerned. And, let us be clear, it is not going to be confined to the use of drones or the mere taking out of a few individuals.
The Washington Post wrote an editorial entitled “The U.S.-Israeli trust gap on Iran”. Let me acknowledge that I was alarmed by that editorial and immediately wrote a response which The Post carried at once. It ran as follows: “This editorial represents unabashed war-mongering at its worst. Coming from a responsible journal like The Washington Post it is highly regrettable. It is downright encouragement and incitement to Israel to engage in military action against Iran NOW, knowing full well that this will pull the US into the war inexorably. Perhaps this is what you are angling for.
“It seems to me that we are witnessing USA's sliding into another war, perhaps long before the US elections, which are not due before November 2012. It is anybody's guess what another war will do for US economy and its financial debt owed to other countries. Mr Obama has been working on slippery ground from the moment he began his tenure. He managed to extricate the US from the Iraq war, with whatever consequences. He still cannot see his way to the exit in Afghanistan. His administration has resolved to give enormous subvention to Pakistan over the next five years. All this is bound to mean considerable strain on US finances. War with Iran cannot fail to bring further strain on US finances.
“It is still a moot point how China and Russia will respond if Iran is locked in war with Israel and the US. My guess is that China and Russia shall let Iran meet its doom at the hands of the US.
“The other moot point is how Iran will respond and whether it has means of retaliating against Israel in a significant manner. If it does, Israel may still live to regret its choice to take military action against Iran. Damage to Iran may not be a matter of concern to Israel or the US, but damage to Israel assuredly should concern both Israel and US. We shall wait to see how Iran responds when it has to, if it has to.”
The Post indulged in ill-concealed advocacy of war with Iran, whatever its nuanced observation that it was not yet necessary and that diplomacy should have a chance. But there was an obvious substratum of approval that Israel might resort to what has been called pre-emptive action in order to achieve the termination or serious delay in Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons.
In The Post editorial or in your write up in Foreign Policy there is no effort to look at the underlying causes that are causing the current difficulties in the Middle East. Let me be clear on the fact of US military power. Iran cannot hope to survive even Israel’s attack – if the US seen to be standing behind it in shining armour. This is how large wars begin. One country begins a war. Another country had already committed its support. So the second country follows the first into war. If someone on the other side had given a commitment to the other side – no one has, in this case, mercifully – then the third country joins the war on the other side. The saving grace on the present occasion is that no third country seems to be on the horizon to come to Iran’s help. So Israel shall get away with it, as it has done in all the years since 1948. The US shall without doubt earn much opprobrium thereby. But it seems, as you say, that there is going to be a wide measure of people’s support in the US to war in another distant theatre. Who cares who likes the US and Americans and why and who doesn’t? US decisions are not affected by such considerations.
The US may have its treasury bonds in China’s hands to the tune of several billion dollars. The US may feel constrained to cut down on expenditure even at the Pentagon. But the US is not down and out. It can afford another war, whatever the expenses of that war. It is not for nothing that the world refers to the US as the richest and the most powerful State in world history. That remains a fact. For the foreseeable future that shall remain the fact that will govern its foreign policy decision-making.
In the end result, we have another war on our hands. Historians and analysts shall endlessly split hairs on the whys and wherefores of decisions by several sides to that war. And so the show will go on.
V. C. Bhutani, Delhi, India, Feb 16 2012, 0625 IST

 

JENNYASDF94

6:18 AM ET

February 16, 2012

Cultural Modifications

The reaction from western citizens not seemed to be that mature for the matter. Some time nations do determine the democratic behaviors. The causes of the issues we are having raised from the different behavioral Aras. A culture should be stretchable to accept and modify the new ideas.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

4:32 PM ET

February 16, 2012

not sure if I got you

But, I take it you are saying that systems other than "democracy" are legitimate. I don't disagree, but would point out that even the Islamic ideal held up by the Quran is democratic in it's way. The Caliph is still beholden to the consent of the governed. He is to be literally brought up from among the people. There is some disagreement with the Shia here, but for Sunni, the leader is beholden to the Quran, and to his people. This is as true in reality as it is in ideal. As we are seeing for better or worse.

 

NICOLAS19

2:49 PM ET

February 17, 2012

ideals adapted to culture

Democracy is a broad concept, currently employed by the American media/political elite to represent a political alignment rather than a method of government. The Bush administration (or Obama for that matter) uses the word quite frequently as a synonym for American priorities, while in reality, it represents the will of the people.

In original, Athenian sense, a government was considered democratic if it represents the will of the people, regardless of the process of election (example: Thrasybulos). In that sense, the leadership of China is democratic, because it is very popular. The US only considers governments to be 'democratic' if their agenda is in line with their own (example: election in Palestine, when Hamas won).

Therefore if you suggest 'stretching' Arab or Persian culture to accept American-style 'democracy' as a new idea, you basically suggest they shall abandon their own political agenda only to adopt that of the US.

 

PEARPANDAS

6:55 PM ET

February 16, 2012

Wow

This is true, and it will be interesting to see what Obama does with his next 4 years. I think it will be a tumultuous time on the international stage. Especially with Iran and Korea as wildcards.

 

JO STEINER

9:04 AM ET

February 17, 2012

Ron Paul's credibility

Walt is right in saying that Ron Paul is not a 'credible' alternative. But why is that? Because the media have done their best to ignore, denigrate or demonise him? His policies seem popular enough, and, given more airtime, would likely resonate much more widely. Given that, his showing in the polls has been all the more remarkable. Unless we accept that 'credibility' is something other than the backing of the main stream media we'll never have a truly credible alternative to the disasterous choices we are always left with.

 

WOLFGANG9

10:40 AM ET

February 17, 2012

Equivalent: Schroeder-Fischer government in Germany

Just to addon:
After almost 20 years of somehow conservative Kohl (CDU) goverment in Germany, Kohl became ineffective and the limits of the conservative government became visible. Thats, when Schroeder (SPD chancellor) -Fischer (Greenies, vizechancellor and secretary of state) made it to govern Germany. Things which could never have been done by the conservative CDU government (especially Kohl) and which were before almost unthinkable for a SPD-Greenie goverment were suddenly possible:
- the first time after second WW participation on a war (in Yugoslavia) together with NATO
- the wide dismantling of the social system and economic changes for the benefit of the employers and to the disadvantage of the employed, among others creating Hartz4, the crashing of the workers unions (which now are widely ineffective), One-Euro-per-hour jobs etc.
Friends of mine think, that there is power behind which is basically running the government and that elections have no meaning et all in this kind of "democracy".
W9

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

2:46 PM ET

February 17, 2012

facinating dynamic

It seems that we elect leaders to betray us. In fact, that is all leaders have is the ability to betray us, to deliver our support to something we never would. The liberal watch dog groups all sleep when a dem is in office, and conservative groups fail to scrutinize Rep. candidates--see Bush's Medicare part D.

 

MR. MOSSAD

3:24 PM ET

February 17, 2012

Obama vs. the R's

And if you think Obama is bad (and he is) wait until an R becomes Prez again. You ain't seen nothing yet! Bombs away and sayonara!

 

ANYA KHAN

10:12 AM ET

February 19, 2012

OMGoodness

You were paid to write this? By whom?

 

JOHN A SWIMMER

2:36 AM ET

February 20, 2012

Democrat & Republican Candidates Unable to Represent Americans

Appears that not a single democrat nor republican candidate or Obama is capable of representing and relating to the needs of over 99% of Americans.

The US government, both parties and the many ignorant, phony experts have failed Americans for the last 30 years by allowing about two dozen corrupt Billionaires, their families, corporations and puppets to control or manipulate our federal, state and local governments and the major industries including finance and banking, oil and power, news, movie, food, pharmaceutical, health care, education, manufacturing, military, etc in America and around the world.

Appreciate all comments and corrections. I'm politically ignorant, 71 and tired of the BS.

1. Finance, Banking and Mortgage Crises in America and around the World

The Federal Reserve is a "privately owned corporation" whose main goal is to make its secret owners and share holders rich. It loans billions of dollars to the US government with interests, maintaining a growing US debt of $15 trillion.

Most Americans believe that the Federal Reserve is a government department. The Fed illegally controls or influences all aspects of finance: policies, supply and circulation of money and loans, interests rates, leverage, etc.

For a documented history of the past and present financial crises, of other crises and more on the illegal Federal Reserve watch "The Secret of Oz", a documentary movie, winner of 4 film awards.

http://www.documentarywire.com/the-secret-of-oz
Written and directed by Ben Still.

Beloit International Film Festival 2010 Best documentary (BIFF)
Yosemite Film Festival 2010 Silver Sierra Award for Excellence in Filmmaking
Accolade Competition 2010 Award of Merit La Jolla, California
Nevada Film Festival 2010 Silver Screen Award
Nathan's Economic Edge, 2009 Excellent review at a world top economics blog.
British premier Oct. 1, 2010 At prestigious Bromsgrove conference

After watching "The Secret of Oz", I found it disturbing and very easy to believe. Due to my political ignorance and inexperience I'm unable to fully judge it's truth and history. My gut says it's mostly if not all true. The award list suggest that it's true. I’ve become wiser in my old age and do not believe most of what I hear or see in the various media and what is commonly accepted and considered history since my world travels and experiences have often contradicted and proved otherwise.

For more history on money, watch: documentarywire.com/the-money-masters Add www.

Of course, the corrupt billionaires are world wide.

2. The Military-Industrial-Complex(MIC) is alive and growing exponentially.

In Afghanistan:
"450 Bases and It’s Not Over Yet
The Pentagon’s Afghan Basing Plans for Prisons, Drones, and Black Ops"
By Nick Turse" tomdispatch.com/archive/175501/ Add www.

The military-industrial-complex must be replaced with a military defense system that does not feed the US imperialism. 900 US foreign military bases cost one trillion dollars a year.

--"Despite all the talk of drawdowns and withdrawals, there has been a years-long building boom in Afghanistan that shows little sign of abating. In early 2010, the U.S.-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) had nearly 400 bases in Afghanistan. Today, Lieutenant Lauren Rago of ISAF public affairs tells TomDispatch, the number tops 450.--"

"---Year after year, ever more American and NATO money has been poured into the training of a security force so humongous that, given the impoverished Afghan government, it will largely be owned and paid for by Washington until hell freezes over (or until it disintegrates) -- $11 billion in 2011 and a similar figure for 2012. And year after year, there appear stories like the recent one from Reuters that began: “Only 1 percent of Afghan police and soldiers are capable of operating independently, a top U.S. commander said on Wednesday, raising further doubts about whether Afghan forces will be able to take on a still-potent insurgency as the West withdraws.---”

3. "How the GOP Became the Party of the Rich"

"The inside story of how the Republicans abandoned the poor and the middle class to pursue their relentless agenda of tax cuts for the wealthiest one percent."

rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-the-gop-became-the-party-of-the-rich-20111109 Add www.

For further corrections to America, suggest reading Juan Cole's article,
"10 Ways Arab Democracies Can Avoid American Mistakes" at:
juancole.com/2011/07/10-ways-arab-democracies-can-avoid-american-mistakes.html Add www.

4. Take the money out of politics(federal, state and local), special interest groups and lobbying. No more secret meetings and communications between the government and special interests groups, lobbyists and all visitors.

Enough.

 

REKLAMOLOGY

7:05 PM ET

February 22, 2012

Anti-Semite; an Arab-hater.

Anti-Semite; an Arab-hater. That makes your a racist, Zionist. How dare you google reklam ajans? call others "anti-Semites" from your Hassidic Plantation?

Hassidic Plantation? Nice rhetoric. Nice bigotry. Also, if you actually looked up the origins of the word "antisemite" you will find it was coined google reklam in Germany by a Professor Wilhelm Marr, who invented the term soley to refer to JEWS. Not arabs. However, doing this research google reklam ver would cause you to actually find facts and substantiate what you say, which apparently you are against doing.

 

Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

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